Originally Posted by
kewlJ
First, because I live in Las Vegas, this thread belongs in the Las Vegas section. ;)
Ok, so just lets see if there is anyone capable of objective political poll discussion or if it will just turn into the Trump is great, Biden sucks, rah, rah type crap (which is likely).
We are about 6 months out and the polls look pretty bad for Trump. Averages of over a dozen polls in the last month have Trump at about 41-42%. This in itself is terrible news for an incumbent. History shows that incumbent polling at 46% or less, win re-election less than 5% of the time. 46% is the cut off. at 47% an incumbents chances increase. If I remember correctly the reasoning is that people know who the incumbent is more so that a challenger. So if they aren't for the incumbent several months out, they are unlikely to break for him/her at the end. So that is the history.
Now several polls in the last few days, including Suffolk/USA Today and a Fox News poll have Trump polling even lower at 38% and 39% respectfully. The Suffolk poll is pretty extensive. The results show Biden at 44% and Trump 38%. This is interesting because while Trump has dropped pretty significantly only a small portion of that support has gone to Biden. Most of that Trump drop went to undecided. This tells you that many people, like myself aren't real happy with these two choices, a 74 year old and a 78 year old, either of whom would be the oldest person elected to the office of President. Reagan was 73 when he won his second term.
In a normal election cycle these two candidates would be locked in with no way to replace either, other than possible death of one of them. But I am not so sure these are "normal" times. I have had this growing feeling for a while now, that come November this will not be Trump vs Biden, but that one or even both could be replaced.
On the republican side, it would not surprise me if Trump just decided he has had enough, especially if poll numbers continue to look bad. He is not going to want to suffer a lopsided loss. And frankly I don't think he ever cared for the job that much. He likes the attention not the job. I could see him, putting one of his Trumpian spins on why he has decided not to run. If this were to happen, I guess Mike pence would inherit the nomination, although there would be at least some discussion of someone else, like a Nicki Haley.
On the Democratic side, it gets even weirder. They are only half way through the official nominating process. Many states have postponed their primary elections and New York just cancelled theirs completely after initially postponing. Other states are likely to follow with the cancelling. That puts you in uncharted territory. Biden doesn't officially have enough delegates to be the nomination. It is assumed the Dems would just go ahead and anoint him the nomination, but it leaves open the possibility that the powers that be could alter course, with or without Biden's blessing (probably without).
If there was a way that I felt comfortable betting I would bet with decent odds that one or the other, Trump or Biden doesn't make it to the General election. With the right odds, I might even put some money that neither do. But I don't bet online, I don't trust that for significant money and Nevada Casinos don't take wagers on elections. So I guess I will just watch and see.
