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https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...ds/#post773318
All this time in Vegas and you don't know how Horse Racing Works???Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
It has a pool called pari-mutuel betting.
Sports Betting has a Vig and the Book Maker is just collecting a percentage of all the bets.
You would think with all your Yiddish Talk, like Shyster, you would understand Vig.
You would also think, with your Million Dollar Vegas Experience and love of Sports, you would understand the difference between Sports Betting and Race Betting.
Concentrate on masking up and hiding in your apartment, crying about how the Chink Virus is the worst thing to happen in your lifetime.
You really are a Fucking Idiot.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I don't understand how you can count Two Tables and make Millions of Dollars in Blackjack but you can't understand the difference between Sports Betting and Race Betting.
Listen pork chop, you fat bastard, I understand how horseracing works. If you knew how to read, the question was "why"?
Horse racing also takes a percentage off the top and distributes the rest of the pool among winning wagers. That is exactly what moneyline wagers do. The difference is moneyline sportsbets are calculated at the time of the wager, rather than includuing the money AFTER the wager. The question remains, why the difference?
Is the pool used to determine the payoffs only the wagers placed at the track, or a combination of track and remote site wagering?Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Haven't sports bettors won more than was wagered on the event?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
This has become more of an issue in the last few years. Your horse could be 5-1 when the race goes off, but will click down to 7/2 once the race has already started and the final clicks have been tallied up. Very frustrating but it happens when you have whales betting online and wait until the final possible minute to jam their bet in....on the flip side, you sometimes can bet a horse at 3-1 and have it go up to 4-1 or 9/2 after the race starts also
Kewl--many years ago there was a great place that opened by the L.V. Hilton (at that time) called the Sport of Kings. It was supposed to be THE PLACE for horse betters. They tried to use fixed odds rather than parimutuel. They got murdered. The players are too good and buried them. They had other issues as well but the pros will murder anyone offering fixed odds.
I was invited to play in the first big handicapping contest there. I went bust!! But for a couple months I went there as much as I could.
Sadly, although I did ok, I wasn't good enough to bury them as it required too much discipline for me that I didn't have then.
Good article about it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archi...-1bb435c6a839/
Coach--includes on track and off track but not foreign books (and some local illegal books)that don't participate in the pool. For those, there are caps on the win so they don't get buried.
What Keystone said is certainly correct. I'll take a few moments to address this a little bit.
First, kewlJ, I suggest you start a similar thread over at WoV. I'll chime in over there a little. Regnis and keystone probably know as much as anybody over there, however.
Second, keystone knows more than me regarding this, as I am no horse expert. Regnis knows much more than me, so if he feels like he wants to take the time here, he would be an excellent source.
Anyway, here's some thoughts. The horse racing pari-mutuel take is enormous and always guarantees the track a profit race to race except in those rare circumstances like (in West Virginia) where minimum show returns are guaranteed regardless of pool ratios. Now, why should it be an enormous edge and pari-mutuel? Well, unlike sports betting, race tracks prior to casino/track hybridization were paying for the sports. They had to build the tracks, host the events, pay the people who work at the track. So they have to cover those costs, unlike sports books, who aren't worried about if the Eagles sold out or how to pay the vendors. That's one angle. The other angle is that horse racing, because of the inside knowledge and relatively small pools (compared to sports) would be horrifically vulnerable to arbitrage and middles-shots kinds of things. You can't have numbers winging all over the place because the way money gets pumped into pools, the numbers would be drastically different in the span of the 30 minutes leading up to the race. It would be business suicide to go non-pari-mutuel and not have stringent limits and rules in place.
The way the tracks do it (pari-mutuel) predates point spreads historically. It's proven and safe.
I speculate here, but if sports books could force people to just bet moneylines, that's what they would do. But spreads have been so established so long, the volume would get killed.
Anyway, those a few quick thoughts. Horse racing is such a niche thing these days, as opposed to Guys and Dolls days, that it doesn't surprise me that kewlJ doesn't know this stuff. Why should he? It's not like horse racing is eminently beatable. When Betfair, with its millions of accounts, was forced in court to publicly show results a few years back, fewer than a dozen Betfair accounts had six digit profits. Out of millions.
If you want a good movie that has some pari-mutuel betting history plotlines, check out The Grifters with Cusack.
And Keystone is right -- when online horse wagering started providing the bulk of the volume, the odds you're looking at a minute to post may bear no resemblance to the final odds. It's all a crap shoot now as to what you'll really get paid. I cringe at the idea.
Regnis -- I wrote the thing above while you were posting, so if I mucked it up, sorry. I defer to regnis on all things horse racing.
And regnis, my girlfriend was a regular at Sport of Kings. That was her hangout. She still refers to it fondly. I probably went in there twice in my life, and I remember almost nothing about it.
To add to that last sentence by Redietz, many whales now have the ability to wager huge amounts directly into the pools in milliseconds directly from their computer. Because of the amount that they bet, they go directly into the pool, not through a wagering site like the rest of us. So they have a computer analyzing all of the pools for overlays and then when an overlay is found it triggers the bet. No actual handicapping by the player. It is these huge amounts that cause the huge drop in odds right after the race goes.
It is not past-posting as many suggest. it is just computer generated wagers.
We used to past post at Maywood (RIP) but that is another story
She's probably the one that rejected my advances-lol. Not many females at that time.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
How about US brick & mortar and online sports books?Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Is their handle all included into the pool?
I think all of the casinos have now gone to parimutuel because they no longer want any risk. All of your major online go into the parimutuel pool. There will always be a few foreign or illegal that book the bets rather than just funnel them through. But they won't take big wagers and they cap the payoffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyHow about US brick & mortar and online sports books?Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Is their handle all included into the pool?
ThatDonGuy explained it over on WOV...if the point spread or moneyline could change for your wager after the wager was made, enough of a move could change a winning bet into a losing bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
That can't happen with the horses, the odds can change, but the bet can't change from a winner into a loser.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
Is all of that action reflected on the tote boards at the track?Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Yes-there are of course delays, but it is all reflected there eventually. The delay in getting the info from all the various sources is another reason why we see the suspicious drop after the race goes. But that is when the big $$ comes in so it looks worse than it actually is.
I hear that there's more money in "rolling dem bones".
And it`s not every horse`s odds in a race change after the race goes off...most of the time when you bet a horse with a minute or so to post, the odds will remain consistent after the race is over....it mostly occurs when you bet the same horse that the computer sharps hammer after you already place your betQuote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Not sure if anyone mentioned this in all of the above stuff, but races are far too easy to fix. From risk managment perspective, there is no way you could have traditional odds. It is one thing to get a sports team to collude .. or even a real world-class athlete who spent his life to get where he is to take a dive. It is another thing to get a jockey the public doesn't know to lay off on the big favorite. If horse-tracks used straight odds like normal sports, they'd be hammered by this sort of crap far too often.
Well, it isn't that he didn't understand them, he just didn't know them. It appears he never really spent any time at a horse-track... it is a weird thing to be a pro-gambler of 10+ years and have these sort of thoughts, but whatever, if you just stick with BJ counting I guess thats what happens. Watching and betting on the horsies was something I've done a few times before the local track closed. Was always fun. Didn't know WTF I was doing, but I did learn paramutual pools.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetYou really are a Fucking Idiot.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I don't understand how you can count Two Tables and make Millions of Dollars in Blackjack but you can't understand the difference between Sports Betting and Race Betting.
First, I created this thread for a different purpose, but then decided not to bring that discussion here, but unfortunately you can't delete an original post, you have to post something, so I posted "delete".Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionWell, it isn't that he didn't understand them, he just didn't know them. It appears he never really spent any time at a horse-track... it is a weird thing to be a pro-gambler of 10+ years and have these sort of thoughts, but whatever, if you just stick with BJ counting I guess thats what happens. Watching and betting on the horsies was something I've done a few times before the local track closed. Was always fun. Didn't know WTF I was doing, but I did learn paramutual pools.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetYou really are a Fucking Idiot.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I don't understand how you can count Two Tables and make Millions of Dollars in Blackjack but you can't understand the difference between Sports Betting and Race Betting.
Monet brought this discussion here, which I started on another forum. I know HOW horse racing works! I just was expressing an opinion that it is kind of weird that you are not locked into odds when you place your bet. There is NO other bet like that.
The comparison is what if they did that on sports? The bet you place, say Alabama -120, turns into Alabama -230. You probably wouldn't have bet it at that line. Same with horse racing. If the odds posted when you bet are 4-1, you should get 4-1. Ridiculous that you can bet a horse at 4-1 and end up with 6-5 odds, when you probably wouldn't have been interested in those odds.
It was just a topic of conversation (on another forum), not a declaration that I don't know how it works. Is there any other wager that a person makes, casinos games ect, where they make a wager at one odds and and receive much less odds later?
Early betting can skew the odds, when there's far less money in the pool.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Betting early on weaker horses would artificially raise the odds of the stronger horses.
If bettors could manipulate the odds like that, they would lock strong horses in at long prices and crush the makers.
There's no reason for kewlJ to be familiar with pari-mutuel odds or horse racing. They're outside his area of expertise. He's not some degenerate who thinks he can conquer all aspects of something called "gambling." That kind of arrogance is for addicts and idiots.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionWell, it isn't that he didn't understand them, he just didn't know them. It appears he never really spent any time at a horse-track... it is a weird thing to be a pro-gambler of 10+ years and have these sort of thoughts, but whatever, if you just stick with BJ counting I guess thats what happens. Watching and betting on the horsies was something I've done a few times before the local track closed. Was always fun. Didn't know WTF I was doing, but I did learn paramutual pools.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetYou really are a Fucking Idiot.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I don't understand how you can count Two Tables and make Millions of Dollars in Blackjack but you can't understand the difference between Sports Betting and Race Betting.
100% on the fixing. The jockeys in Maryland at the harness track used to meet pre race and decide a number of races in advance. It was in their interest because of the way they got paid. This was back in the early 90's.
I wish I knew then what I know now...:-(
It goes back ever further. At Penn National, which RED knows, it was a complete fix. There was more money to be made betting on the horses compared to winning races. There was always collusion between owners, trainers and jockeys and the players reading the Racing Form and betting were the suckers.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
You have to remember in those days Horse Racing was huge and the only game in PA. Nightly crowds on a weeknight measured in the thousands. And the simulcast rooms in AC were busy.
Anyways, I do remember a scandal after a few were charged with fixing but it was almost covered up with only a few jockeys and trainers banned from PA tracks. The true scam was far larger.
Pennsylvania racing is still a cesspool. An absolute joke in the industry. Anything goes and the officials let it go.
Not much to add. Old Wise Jungle saying: a 4/5 favorite at Penn National is an oxymoron. Or a snipe hunt.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis