Do Not Bet Parlays

This is one of those instances I have to spell this out for any math-oriented readers.

About 20 years ago a famous Pennsylvania bookmaker went to trial because, well, he was a bookmaker. His name was Mike Stockunas (you can look him up -- it was his first trial; not the second). The prosecutors put his assistant on the witness stand. They put the assistant under oath, and one of the prosecutors asked him, "Do you know what a parlay is?" The witness answered, "Yes, sir, I do." There was a pause. The prosecutor continued, "Well, would you tell us what a parlay is?" The bookmaker's assistant answered, "It's a really stupid bet."

And that is the truth in 99% of the cases, no matter what you hear. There are certain rare specific situations when it may make sense, but in general, betting parlays is either a sign of being stupid or lazy or both. I suspect most of the time it's laziness.

One of my partners from decades ago bet boxing almost exclusively, and usually for large sums. He characterized parlay bettors as "poor people trying to get rich." So I guess I'd add that to the description. If you're betting parlays, in 99% of the situations, you're tipping people off that you're either stupid, lazy, or poor.

My Body, My Choice!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bwTIEelTPo

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Originally Posted by redietz

One of my partners from decades ago bet boxing almost exclusively, and usually for large sums. He characterized parlay bettors as "poor people trying to get rich." So I guess I'd add that to the description. If you're betting parlays, in 99% of the situations, you're tipping people off that you're either stupid, lazy, or poor.

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Stupid and poor maybe, but I take umbrage with lazy.

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Originally Posted by dannyj

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Originally Posted by redietz

One of my partners from decades ago bet boxing almost exclusively, and usually for large sums. He characterized parlay bettors as "poor people trying to get rich." So I guess I'd add that to the description. If you're betting parlays, in 99% of the situations, you're tipping people off that you're either stupid, lazy, or poor.

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Stupid and poor maybe, but I take umbrage with lazy.

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There's a reason I think "lazy" is the main problem. The reason I say that is obvious, if you spend 30 seconds thinking about it.

There used to be a poker dealer at the Cal-Neva that bet the 2-team parlays, like team A and the over or Team B and the under. With an upcoming game he would always say something like "The smart money is on Team A with the over" or "the smart money is on Team B and the under." Shit like that. I used to always think nope, the smart money ain't on any shit like that. But I never told the guy that. They'll argue your head off all day long about it. Best to just keep the ol' mouth shut.

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Originally Posted by redietz

This is one of those instances I have to spell this out for any math-oriented readers.

About 20 years ago a famous Pennsylvania bookmaker went to trial because, well, he was a bookmaker. His name was Mike Stockunas (you can look him up -- it was his first trial; not the second). The prosecutors put his assistant on the witness stand. They put the assistant under oath, and one of the prosecutors asked him, "Do you know what a parlay is?" The witness answered, "Yes, sir, I do." There was a pause. The prosecutor continued, "Well, would you tell us what a parlay is?" The bookmaker's assistant answered, "It's a really stupid bet."

And that is the truth in 99% of the cases, no matter what you hear. There are certain rare specific situations when it may make sense, but in general, betting parlays is either a sign of being stupid or lazy or both. I suspect most of the time it's laziness.

One of my partners from decades ago bet boxing almost exclusively, and usually for large sums. He characterized parlay bettors as "poor people trying to get rich." So I guess I'd add that to the description. If you're betting parlays, in 99% of the situations, you're tipping people off that you're either stupid, lazy, or poor.

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As I always say, you can’t teach common sense. The first bookmaker I had in Central PA in the 80’s even told me they were a sucker bet. He said, rightfully so, that it’s hard enough to pick one winner, let alone 2. Go 1-1 on straight bets you lose the juice, go 1-1 in a parlay, you lose period.

Even worse were/are the Exacta & Trifecta bettors at the track. Nothing worse in the old days before machines was standing behind one at the window as the rattled off 50 triple combinations. And in spite of the odds alone, the holds on the Pari mutual were much higher on these bets.

Pffft! This guy disagrees.

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...604-Parlay-Bet

I explained this before and you can believe it or not.
If you can pick 55% winners straight up, you will destroy parlays.
Fact.

The problem is being able to pick 55% winners consistently.

True answer counter-intuitive. General public better off parlay. Small money parlay larger money straight up more money bet faster bet ignorant. Dumb people not dumb. Better than lotto.

If this is what passes for gambling expertise at VCT, well, LOL. Try again, people.

"True answer counter-intuitive." Funny stuff. As if there is a population called the "general public" and a subset that isn't the "general public." What, do they wear name tags or do lapel pins so you can tell them apart? As if playing a nickel video poker machine somehow requires a different strategy than a dollar one with the same pay scale. If you really think that you're not the "general public," maybe you should show us your "Not the General Public" gumball-machine ID card.

This is why blackhole thinks you're all bullshitting.

Let's see if any VCT geniuses can answer the simple and obvious question, "What is the reason most (as in 98%) of parlay betting is indicative of bettor laziness?"

If you can't answer the question in 10 seconds or less, you have no business betting sports, period.

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Originally Posted by redietz

If this is what passes for gambling expertise at VCT, well, LOL. Try again, people.

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If this is what passes for gambling expertise at VCT, well, LOL. Try again, people. --->

List of Magic: The Gathering professional players.

https://anagram-solver.net/If%20this....?partial=true


Red, this place is the nut-shoppe. All gambling forums are.

By far, the bulk of the money won at gambling was lucky wins. Not by old loners scratching their asses while counting cards, all day.

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Originally Posted by redietz

If this is what passes for gambling expertise at VCT, well, LOL. Try again, people.

"True answer counter-intuitive." Funny stuff. As if there is a population called the "general public" and a subset that isn't the "general public." What, do they wear name tags or do lapel pins so you can tell them apart? As if playing a nickel video poker machine somehow requires a different strategy than a dollar one with the same pay scale. If you really think that you're not the "general public," maybe you should show us your "Not the General Public" gumball-machine ID card.

This is why blackhole thinks you're all bullshitting.

Let's see if any VCT geniuses can answer the simple and obvious question, "What is the reason most (as in 98%) of parlay betting is indicative of bettor laziness?"

If you can't answer the question in 10 seconds or less, you have no business betting sports, period.

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Well, you want people that are wrong about anything banned out of forums. Now you want people that are wrong about sports betting banned from betting. And you think you are the smart one. If all the dumasses were banned from betting you wouldn't have a place to bet.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by redietz

If this is what passes for gambling expertise at VCT, well, LOL. Try again, people.

"True answer counter-intuitive." Funny stuff. As if there is a population called the "general public" and a subset that isn't the "general public." What, do they wear name tags or do lapel pins so you can tell them apart? As if playing a nickel video poker machine somehow requires a different strategy than a dollar one with the same pay scale. If you really think that you're not the "general public," maybe you should show us your "Not the General Public" gumball-machine ID card.

This is why blackhole thinks you're all bullshitting.

Let's see if any VCT geniuses can answer the simple and obvious question, "What is the reason most (as in 98%) of parlay betting is indicative of bettor laziness?"

If you can't answer the question in 10 seconds or less, you have no business betting sports, period.

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Well, you want people that are wrong about anything banned out of forums. Now you want people that are wrong about sports betting banned from betting. And you think you are the smart one. If all the dumasses were banned from betting you wouldn't have a place to bet.

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What you fail to grasp, mickey, is I would be more than happy if the ending of The Stand happened tomorrow.

Your point is actually the same kind of argument BoSox used over at WoV to argue that kewlJ shouldn't be so hard on people who are fooling the "general public" with tales of extravagant wins because (drum roll) without the people buying the nonsense, winning at blackjack becomes more difficult.

By your logic, doctors who treat VD shouldn't be giving out pamphlets explaining how to not get it because (drum roll) that would cut into their business.

If there's no place to bet, then I won't be betting. If my only betting option were parlays, then I wouldn't be betting. If my only betting option were 6/5, then I wouldn't be betting.

Betting should be an opportunity, not an addiction.

Is a lot of opportunity called an addiction?

small parlays i can work with but big ones, even gimmes, fall somewhere.

anyone know much about monte carlo modelling? checking it out for a bunch of stuff.

Or..............

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/bettor-...150031057.html


Was this you Monet

FUCK YOU

have you got any stats for this? forget it i ll just go with my gut

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Originally Posted by wrongpath39

have you got any stats for this? forget it i ll just go with my gut

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LOL. That's exactly what Jamie Foxx says in those MGM commercials.

If you have specific promos, parlays don't have to be completely outlawed. Here's the basic premise for why betting parlays is a bad (and lazy) idea. I'm giving you the basic problem, and it has very little to do with odds per se.

This is not Mensa level stuff, which is why it blows my mind that Shackleford thinks "parlay calculators" are a useful tool.

Numbers move over time. Numbers vary from place to place. I know -- how hard was that to figure out? What this means, essentially, is that to bet parlays, you need to be able to keep them open in perpetuity for them to be maximally useful. Otherwise, you are betting non-optimal numbers most of the time because each parlay must be bet at one shop at one point in time.

To get a hint at how you are potentially screwing yourself, understand that a half point deficit can be considered the equivalent of a chunk of juice. And college football and college hoops, for example, can have line moves of three points or more fairly routinely.

Now if you can keep parlays open in perpetuity, you can bet an optimal line at an optimal time at one shop and simply wait for that shop to furnish another optimal line down the road. If you can't keep parlays open in perpetuity, then you are paying a price.

And this has nothing to do with the actual payback on the parlays. Whatever argument you want to make that this and that shop has generous parlays, the line movements undercut that argument without even doing the math of usual parlay deficits.

Monet, did I miss anything? And for the record, I'm straight in this particular universe, so don't try to bed me with sweet talk.

Sorry guys you’re completely wrong about parlays.
(Well not completely. I discovered parlays on long term markets as a viable way to bet as I’m very lazy )

In fact parlays on long term markets are not only profitable but by far the easiest way to beat the books


I’ve been a professional gambler since 2004 and am £2,900,000 up all from betting parlays. Even though I was originally a humble ex London tube driver. (I was £3,150,000 up but I have no good accounts anymore and it’s much harder getting bets on the markets I want to bet)

It is of course a waste of time arguing with people who are certain they are right so I will just give the three main reasons parlays on outright markets are profitable

There is a favourite long shot bias in almost every sport in long term markets throughout most of the year

Long term markets are ridiculously easy to trade

Long term markets finish at roughly the same time thus enabling ‘efficient/economical’ hedging

I’m not the only person making regular profits betting parlays on long term markets I should point out