Offbeat strategy question.

This is a one time event, and because it is a one time event it may or may not have an impact on your reasoning or answer.

You sign up for a new slot club at a casino. As part of the sign up bonus you get a free play at video poker. It's a $1 machine and the game is 9/6 Jacks or Better.

On the deal you have this hand:

3c 3s Jh Ad Qc

Your wife say to you, "honey, do what you can to at least get $5. Let's make this visit to the casino worth at least $5. I thought we were going to get a coffee mug and a tee-shirt but they ran out. So, honey, at least get five dollars."

So, with your wife watching, and counting on you getting a $5 payoff, how do you play the dealt hand?

If the goal is to maximize your chance of having a winning hand then I believe holding the QJ would be best. It would be easy to check with a tutor program.

This actually comes into play on multi-strike as the goal on lower levels is to advance to a higher level. I don't play multi-strike but I think QJ would be the proper hold at level 1 for most games.

AQJ is higher than QJ on the multi strike strategy chart for the first level. Any pair would move you up to the second level, plus you have fewer cards to draw for a straight.

But that's not the problem here....

Two high cards have the highest percent chance of a winning hand.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by quahaug

Two high cards have the highest percent chance of a winning hand.

---

You are correct. I misread the strategy chart: http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-...ke/appendix/2/

But is that also your answer for the original question, or was it your answer for the multi strike question?

The best chance at winning at least five bucks is to hold the J.

In multistrike, it depends which line you're playing. My MS strategy doesn't include JoB, but if the hand came up on line one in BP or any of the advanced BP games, you hold the 3's. But if the were 9's then you'd hold the QJ. If it were line two & above then it's still the 3's, but also the 9's.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

The best chance at winning at least five bucks is to hold the J.

In multistrike, it depends which line you're playing. My MS strategy doesn't include JoB, but if the hand came up on line one in BP or any of the advanced BP games, you hold the 3's. But if the were 9's then you'd hold the QJ. If it were line two & above then it's still the 3's, but also the 9's.

---

Rob please specify your answers for:
the original question
the multi strike game

we seem to have two different questions to consider.

I ignore the wife and hold 33. But that's just me.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by redietz

I ignore the wife and hold 33. But that's just me.

---

I was waiting for that! LOL

On 9/6 JOB, it's the 3's by a wide margin regardless of the $5 goal.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

On 9/6 JOB, it's the 3's by a wide margin regardless of the $5 goal.

---

Thanks Vegas Vic, now pretend you're the husband explaining it to your wife.

The wife says "if we hold the AQJ we have three aces, three queens, three jacks, and the chance to draw a king and a ten for a straight. But there are only two more threes to catch, and look how hard it is to get another pair -- that's why they pay more for two pairs! I want my five dollars."

I have no patience with a wife who is greedy or stupid or both.

Well, let's see how stupid she is. Chance of drawing a second pair when you hold one pair is 1/6. Chance of drawing a card to make three of a kind is 1/9.

Now, holding AQJ you have 9 cards that would give you a winning pair. That's 9/47 remaining cards which beats a 1/6 draw and a 1/9 draw. And not included here are the chances of drawing a K-Ten to complete the straight, which is a long shot.

Comments?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by redietz

I ignore the wife and hold 33. But that's just me.

---

Are you arci?

If it's in a cold cycle, it won't matter what you choose!:p:rolleyes:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Rob please specify your answers for:
the original question
the multi strike game

we seem to have two different questions to consider.

---

Hold the lone J because it offers you the most opportunity to win at least five bucks, but it is no better than holding the Q or Ace in that regard. But it also allows many possible quads, a SF, a RF, and a host of other winners, including more straights than by just holding the Q.

In MS you always hold the special quad pair over a high card on the first level. If it were a pair of 7's then you'd only hold a high card (in this case the A) because you're only goal on line one is to get to line two. MS has a list of complicated holds if you want to do it right. As usual, my strategy differs some from someone like Dancer's strategy, but I have never lost playing it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by slingshot

If it's in a cold cycle, it won't matter what you choose!:p:rolleyes:

---

Or if you're playing it in an Indian casino! Or maybe if you use the 'ol "pull-your-card" hocus pocus in order to confuse/outsmart every casino employee :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Or if you're playing it in an Indian casino! Or maybe if you use the 'ol "pull-your-card" hocus pocus in order to confuse/outsmart every casino employee :)

---

Ha! Ha! I watch them do that all the time. They usually sit there for a minute or two waiting for the "right time" and then re-insert the card.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

my strategy differs some from someone like Dancer's strategy, but I have never lost playing it.

---

This statement is begging for the question: how do you define "never lost" playing it??

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

This statement is begging for the question: how do you define "never lost" playing it??

---

Not a big deal really. I am 5-0. I played at the $ & $2 levels in my strategy and there were very few $2 games around. Then I couldn't locate any $2 games so I tried 25c & dollars. That didn't do the job as far as my win goal was concerned. It took too long.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Well, let's see how stupid she is. Chance of drawing a second pair when you hold one pair is 1/6. Chance of drawing a card to make three of a kind is 1/9.

Now, holding AQJ you have 9 cards that would give you a winning pair. That's 9/47 remaining cards which beats a 1/6 draw and a 1/9 draw. And not included here are the chances of drawing a K-Ten to complete the straight, which is a long shot.

Comments?

---

No one wants to comment? I took this right out of one of those "AP books" I have.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Well, let's see how stupid she is. Chance of drawing a second pair when you hold one pair is 1/6. Chance of drawing a card to make three of a kind is 1/9.

Now, holding AQJ you have 9 cards that would give you a winning pair. That's 9/47 remaining cards which beats a 1/6 draw and a 1/9 draw. And not included here are the chances of drawing a K-Ten to complete the straight, which is a long shot.

Comments?

---

It's not a one card draw, Alan. So 9/47 is not relevant. You have to look at two card draw percentages.

Holding 33 you have a 28.3% chance of hitting a winner.

Holding AQJ you have a 37% chance
Holding J you have a 31.4% chance
Holding QJ you have a 37.6% chance

The winner is QJ if you are looking for the best chance of hitting a winning hand.

PS. I used winpoker and calculated the % for nada and then subtracted that from 100.

Arc, take a look at this:

http://www.videopoker.com/learn/statistics/

You say QJ. Others say hold the pair of 3s. This should be interesting.

Arc you wrote: "It's not a one card draw, Alan. So 9/47 is not relevant."

I didn't say it was a one card draw. I said: "Now, holding AQJ you have 9 cards that would give you a winning pair. That's 9/47 remaining cards"

Where did I say it was a one card draw? After the initial deal there are 47 cards remaining. 9 of the remaining 47 cards would help you make a high pair. That's 9/47. Isn't it?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Arc you wrote: "It's not a one card draw, Alan. So 9/47 is not relevant."

I didn't say it was a one card draw. I said: "Now, holding AQJ you have 9 cards that would give you a winning pair. That's 9/47 remaining cards"

Where did I say it was a one card draw? After the initial deal there are 47 cards remaining. 9 of the remaining 47 cards would help you make a high pair. That's 9/47. Isn't it?

---

Nope, you could draw 9 out of 47 as the first drawn card and, if that fails, 9 out of 46 with the second card drawn. This is a total of about 32% of the time. Note that 9/47 =~ 19%.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Arc, take a look at this:

http://www.videopoker.com/learn/statistics/

You say QJ. Others say hold the pair of 3s. This should be interesting.

---

There's no disagreement between the two choices. One chooses the QJ if their goal is optimize the number of winning hands. One chooses 33 if their goal is to optimize their ER.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by arcimede$

There's no disagreement between the two choices. One chooses the QJ if their goal is optimize the number of winning hands. One chooses 33 if their goal is to optimize their ER.

---

Hi Alan!
I agree here.
Highest win prob is to hold the QJ.
using the calculator(hope the link works) 3C,3S,QC,AD,JH
and Excel

Code:

---

win prob        ways        Held Draws        EV        Total
                               
0.376441566        6104        _ _ QC _ JH        0.5        16215
0.370027752        400        _ _ QC AD JH        0.4561        1081
0.368547641        5976        _ _ _ AD JH        0.4684        16215
0.368547641        5976        _ _ QC AD _        0.4684        16215
0.314136742        56031        _ _ _ _ JH        0.4643        178365
0.31178202        55611        _ _ QC _ _        0.4527        178365
0.311277437        55521        _ _ _ AD _        0.4523        178365
0.287141536        4656        3C 3S _ _ _        0.8237        16215
0.259019426        280        3C 3S _ _ JH        0.6753        1081
0.259019426        280        3C 3S _ AD _        0.6753        1081
0.259019426        280        3C 3S QC _ _        0.6753        1081
0.250693802        271        _ 3S _ AD JH        0.2831        1081
0.250693802        271        _ 3S QC _ JH        0.2831        1081
0.250693802        271        _ 3S QC AD _        0.2831        1081
0.250693802        271        3C _ _ AD JH        0.2831        1081
0.250693802        271        3C _ QC _ JH        0.2831        1081
0.250693802        271        3C _ QC AD _        0.2831        1081
0.234227567        3798        3C _ QC _ _        0.3505        16215
0.227998767        3697        _ 3S _ AD _        0.3052        16215
0.227998767        3697        3C _ _ AD _        0.3052        16215
0.224051804        3633        _ 3S _ _ JH        0.2894        16215
0.224051804        3633        _ 3S QC _ _        0.2894        16215
0.224051804        3633        3C _ _ _ JH        0.2894        16215
0.191489362        9        _ 3S QC AD JH        0.1915        47
0.191489362        9        3C _ QC AD JH        0.1915        47
0.179981733        276081        _ _ _ _ _        0.3128        1533939
0.170212766        8        3C 3S _ AD JH        0.383        47
0.170212766        8        3C 3S QC _ JH        0.383        47
0.170212766        8        3C 3S QC AD _        0.383        47
0.127014829        22655        _ 3S _ _ _        0.2285        178365
0.12608976        22490        3C _ _ _ _        0.223        178365
0        0        3C 3S QC AD JH        0        1

---

Sally

I'm just starting out in VP
Only played a few times. I like talking with the seniors while playing. They all have great stories!

Thanks for joining us Mustagsalley!

Well, we got the range of answers that I expected, and yes I tried to stir the pot. What I am looking for now is a discussion about a strategy to win (holding QJ for example) vs optimal strategy which says to hold the pair of 3s.

Alan, Video Poker strategy has been studied by many very educated individuals. There's nothing real complex going on from a mathematical standpoint. Maybe you should listen to the experts instead of the silly nonsense that you have been blindly accepting.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by arcimede$

Alan, Video Poker strategy has been studied by many very educated individuals. There's nothing real complex going on from a mathematical standpoint. Maybe you should listen to the experts instead of the silly nonsense that you have been blindly accepting.

---

What is the point of your comment? So, let me state it again:

"Proper strategy" says to hold the pair of threes. In our problem, where the wife says get me five dollars, the correct strategy is to hold JQ. Now, there comes a time when you have to step back and say "sometimes just getting my money back might be better." When? For example, you are playing for comps, or to reach another play level such as on multi strike, or when trying to turn free play into cash.

The question is, "What would the casino prefer you do?" In almost all cases, the casino prefers you do whatever provides the lowest return, regardless of number of hands. So simply don't do what the casino wants you to do.

There is no wife telling you to make five dollars. There is no Rob Singer telling you to reach a win goal. There is only you and the video poker and the casino. So why not do the thing that gives you the best return?

I like your thinking redietz, but what is the best return? Holding 3-3 is not a paying hand, and holding QJ is more likely to at least give you your five dollars back.

Almost every book agrees that the J is the best draw because it can fit in the most hands-and I NEVER like leaving out the possibility of a Royal.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

What is the point of your comment? So, let me state it again:

"Proper strategy" says to hold the pair of threes. In our problem, where the wife says get me five dollars, the correct strategy is to hold JQ. Now, there comes a time when you have to step back and say "sometimes just getting my money back might be better." When? For example, you are playing for comps, or to reach another play level such as on multi strike, or when trying to turn free play into cash.

---

Alan, no one is arguing against your statement. IF, got that, IF your goal is to try and win a single hand then holding the QJ is the proper play. The problem is if you try to take that strategy and apply it to different goals as in "a discussion about a strategy to win (holding QJ for example) vs optimal strategy ". (Notice you said nothing about goals here.)

You simply can't take the strategy outside the goals that are stated and still expect it to be valid.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by slingshot

Almost every book agrees that the J is the best draw because it can fit in the most hands-and I NEVER like leaving out the possibility of a Royal.

---

Show me one book that supports your claim. Almost all books are written to discuss playing multiple hands, not a single hand. In fact, I doubt there exists a single book that discusses playing one hand.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I like your thinking redietz, but what is the best return? Holding 3-3 is not a paying hand, and holding QJ is more likely to at least give you your five dollars back.

---

The best return over time is to hold the 3-3. In fact, it's a rather big difference in most games. Once again, you will hit more winners holding QJ than any other hold. However, those winners on average will be considerably less valuable. One probably only needs to play a few hundred hands to see the benefit of holding the 3-3.

Here's an analogy. You go to a market where they are selling oranges for .50 or 3 for a dollar. Obviously, buying one orange at .50 will be less expensive than buying 3 which would cost twice as much. Does that mean you should run to the market every day and buy one orange? Figure it out. It's exactly the same kind of math.

The only one I kept is "Win at Video Poker" by Roger Fleming. In the back is the section on best one card draw for when the Royal hits astronomical proportions on a progressive. It also states the J is the best card to hold in any situation-if you only had one shot.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by slingshot

The only one I kept is "Win at Video Poker" by Roger Fleming. In the back is the section on best one card draw for when the Royal hits astronomical proportions on a progressive. It also states the J is the best card to hold in any situation-if you only had one shot.

---

Unique situation, but very educational nonetheless.

What does this claim tell you? It should tell you that IF your goal is to hit a RF the best one card hold is a single Jack. And note, it's not because it gives you a better chance at the RF. That is the same with any single royal card. It's because the average return of all the other possible draws is higher. That is expert play logic.

It all gets back to your goal. Now, for most people (who never see an "astronomical" progressive) their goal is to win the most money possible. When that is the goal the best approach to playing VP is expert play strategy. That is what the math tells you.

Three days ago, I was playing ddbp and the machine was tug and go, and I received two high cards with matching suited LOW cards-as has happened several times in the past few months. Once again, I swept the hand and received 4 3's for $100. One and two card draws and sweeps have been great to me in the past couple of months. Last time, it was 4 A's. This is where I go with Rob-the heck with what the math says you should do. I DID NOT say ignore it, BTW.

Interesting about the jack. The last royal I hit before my 170,000 hand drought was when I held just a jack. The drought was broken when I held three to the royal. But Ive also had a royal holding just an ace, and then twice I was dealt a royal and once I drew all five cards for a royal after holding no cards.