Since I'm batting .900 (!!) in my first 21 NFL picks, time to take a shot with NCAAF.
First pick below. More coming soon.
I'll start with some chalk.
Florida -10.5 vs Missouri
I know, complex stuff. The home -11 favorite. Starting in 20 min.
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Since I'm batting .900 (!!) in my first 21 NFL picks, time to take a shot with NCAAF.
First pick below. More coming soon.
I'll start with some chalk.
Florida -10.5 vs Missouri
I know, complex stuff. The home -11 favorite. Starting in 20 min.
Here's a few more:
Navy +5.5 vs Tulsa
Iowa State +1 vs Kansas State (Iowa moneyline ok)
South Carolina +175 at Kentucky (+4.5 ok)
And two Washington related totals:
USC vs Washington State - Under 64.5 (63.5 ok)
Arizona State vs Washington - Under 56 (55.5 ok)
Gonna go full degen mode and fire a few more.
Hopefully I don't go 0-9 or something. That would be embarrassing. At least Florida is up 10-0 to start.
Akron +10 at Ohio
Vanderbilt +17 vs Ole Miss
Stanford +170 vs Oregon State (+4.5 ok)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Whole different animal, college football. Completely different sport. As different from the NFL as NASCAR is from hurling.
I got tortured with East Carolina today but won with TTech (+10 1/2 at the end) and second half on Okie State. Ahead 1/2 a unit on the day. Have BYU teased currently, along with Oregon in a separate teaser. We'll see how they go.
I don't think Stanford will beat Oregon State.
Here's a quick tale of contest woe. Northbet has a weekly college contest. You have to pick the top 15 teams or thereabouts ATS. Not my thing. I don't take many top 10-type games, and I hate choosing 40-point lines, even for a free contest. Makes me squint too hard.
Anyway, I'm 3-6 ATS after the first nine games, and three of the six losses are by half a point. LOL. That's rough. Of course, if you're actually shopping, you're not 3-6.
4-3-1 is still a pretty good day for degening.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Ummmmm....
Beavermania running wild.
The backup QB played a real nice game for Oregon State. The Beaver defensive line didn't play as well as I thought they might.
Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I have to mention this as a bad beats kind of record for one day. In this damned contest, I rallied to go 7-7 ATS. Three losses by half a point and another by 1 1/2 points. That's gotta be some kind of negative record for one day.
Unbelievable beat on that Stanford game. Up 27-22 with 57 secs left, and Oregon State has to make 76 yards. They get 9 and 11 on two plays, and then hit a 56 yard Hail Mary with 18s left.
Just brutal.
That was the difference between a winning 4-4-1 day (+1.25 units) and a losing 3-5-1 day (-1.45 units), since this was a +170.
Guess I counted wrong lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Sorry.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monetGuess I counted wrong lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Sorry.
I almost teased the Beavers. Then decided no backup QBs making road debuts, no matter if Stanford looked like hell pretty much every game. So that 45-yard FG with a minute left would have been a tough teaser L.
I have to go back over that play. I can't fault the safeties at first glance, but maybe they needed a full-on prevent there with guys sitting back at the goal line. That's a relatively experienced secondary for Stanford, however. Everybody did what they were supposed to do on that play, given the defense.
The Pac 12 this year is a cut above what it's been the last five/six years, if you look at it top to bottom.
I will say this -- Dan's picking-on-the-backup-QBs is probably going to work better in this era of transfer-itis, which really just started this season. It's not a terrible idea, especially when these guys make road game starts in loud stadiums (in other words, Sun Belt not a great angle). The drop-off to backup QB is huge. Look at NC State. Those guys are done if the QB is hurt. Va Tech is done if the QB is hurt. Big drop offs. Hard to quantify it.
I also got burned by that horrible play. I had Stanford +4.5 for 1 unit and Stanford to win for 1/2 unit, so that play turned what should have been a 2 unit win into about a half unit win and that was the difference between what should have been a slightly winning day and a slightly losing day.
The safety had one job.....not to let the receiver get behind him.....to always stay between the receiver and the endzone. He had no business trying to knock the ball away. That was the defensive backs job. If the safety had done what he was supposed to he would have tackled the guy even after the miraculous catch. And Oregon State would have been scrambling to get another play off before time expired.
Why hasn't Coach David Shaw lost his job? He had winning seasons back when he had Andrew Luck and then McCafferty, .but now has lost 10 straight conference games. The only games they can win are against teams like Colgate.
Trying to shake off my 3-5-1 start to NCAA, and that Hail Mary which fucked my Stanford ML bet (and made my day a loser).
Here are two games I like tomorrow:
Utah -3.5 -108 vs USC
Florida State +170 vs. Clemson
Also:
There seems to be skepticism that Kansas can win without Jalon Daniels.
This looks like a trap line though. All the ploppies thinking they're being clever getting points with the "better" team, but the casinos keep moving the line to make Oklahoma more of a favorite. I was already looking at this one, and now I'm going to go with Oklahoma for exactly that reason.
Oklahoma -9 -105 vs Kansas
Also:
Fresno State vs San Jose State - Under 47
Let's throw another Utah-related game out there:
Colorado State vs Utah State - Under 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
That was a good Utah State/Colorado State Under, Dan. Damn, I overlooked it. Last game, Colorado State scored two defensive TDs and not much else happened. An Under this week made sense. My normal modus operandi would be to tease the Under with an open spot.
I had a good day. Didn't lose anything but blew money hedging two games at halftime. Hedging, as my girlfriend says, is for weenies.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I have never seen anything quite like the Oklahoma game. They had 487 yards at halftime and were up by just 14. That was 487 yards at halftime. I don't believe, in 45 years, that I have witnessed 487 yards in a half by one team. That's sick.
Yeah, that Oklahoma game was weird.
3-2 day. Florida State had a good late run at it, but ran out of time. The 2-point conversion attempt by Utah State unfortunately guaranteed that my -3.5 couldn't hit.
Both unders easily won.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
That was also a real good Under on Fresno/San Jose. Without the QB, Fresno has to play completely differently to just stay in games. San Jose State front seven is excellent, as witnessed by when they stepped up in class early versus Auburn.
Real nice job on the totals.
I suspect with your picking on the key injuries, and the lack of depth with transfer-itis, the totals may be the way to go. Those were real solid. I say this because it appears as if the lines are adjusted sufficiently for the sides, but I'm not sure any totals line could compensate for the lack of a Haener for Fresno or the NC State QB. Without those guys, the teams have had to completely change their offensive personalities. Fresno would have been favored with their QB, possibly, and NCState too. But the totals weren't adjusted enough.
So far I'm 6-7-1, down 0.68 units. Not the greatest start, but I had a few close ones which could have gone either way.
Today has a few NCAAF games. I have one pick:
UAB +103 at Western Kentucky (+1.5 -110 ok)
And here's some Saturday NCAAF picks for you:
Kansas State +145 at TCU (+3.5 ok)
Louisville -2.5 vs Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt +14 -105 at Missouri
LSU -2.5 vs Ole Miss
Bowling Green +205 at Central Michigan (+6.5 ok)
UL Monroe +210 at Army (+6.5 ok)
Baylor -10 vs Kansas
Totals for Friday:
UAB at Western Kentucky - Over 58.5
And some totals for Saturday:
North Texas at UTSA - Over 72.5
Toledo at Buffalo - Under 57
Boston College at Wake Forest - Under 60.5
Regarding my remaining NCAAF bets, I haven't actually fired LSU yet. I made it as a pick, and it will stand either way regarding my record, but I am not personally betting it now. I've changed my mind. So if you haven't bet it yet, I no longer recommend it.
Add this total pick to today, as well:
Texas at Oklahoma State - Under 60
UAB failed to cover the over (by a wide margin), and stopped scoring after the early 2nd, losing the game by 3. So that's 0-2 on Friday, with a shitload of picks still to resolve today.
Right now I stand at 6-9-1, down 2.68 units.
Saturday:
North Texas at UTSA - Over 72.5 - LOSS
Toledo at Buffalo - Under 57 - LOSS
Boston College at Wake Forest - Under 60.5 - WIN
Bowling Green +205 at Central Michigan - WIN
UL Monroe +210 at Army - LOSS
Baylor -10 vs Kansas - WIN
LSU -2.5 vs Ole Miss - WIN
Texas at Oklahoma State - Under 60 - LOSS
Vanderbilt +14 -105 at Missouri - WIN
Kansas State +145 at TCU - LOSS
Louisville -2.5 vs Pittsburgh - WIN
6-5, +1.62 units
Overall: 12-14-1. down 1.06 units
The two games where you and I were at loggerheads were LSU and the Texas total. I lost with Ole Miss +8 teased to Open and won with the Texas/Oklahoma State Over teased to Wash (Pick) vs. Cal.
There had been indications that the Ole Miss defense was reverting to previous years' lousy form, but I did not expect them to unravel so completely. I guess the Vanderbilt game set an ominous tone, but I really didn't see yesterday coming. They never stopped them...at all. I love the LSU transfer from ASU QB, by the way. Three years ago, he won some games for ASU that were extraordinary, especially one versus a real good Michigan State team where they got pushed all over the field and beaten up, but he made about half a dozen Michael Vick-ish runs to save the day.
Washington State +240 vs Utah (+7 ok)
Lost the Washington State pick. Now 12-15-1, -2.06 units.
Today:
Notre Dame +103 at Syracuse
Kansas State -1.5 vs Oklahoma State
Louisville +145 vs Wake Forest
Missouri +150 at South Carolina
Eastern Michigan +215 vs Toledo
Charlotte +15.5 at Rice
Tulsa -102 vs SMU
Massachusetts +103 vs New Mexico State
Georgia -23.5 vs Florida (ploppy pick)
Totals:
Navy vs Temple - Over 41.5
Boise State vs Colorado State - Under 42.5 -115
San Diego State at Fresno State - Over 43
7-5 on the games last week, up 2.62 units.
Winners were: Notre Dame, Kansas State, Louisville, Missouri, Charlotte, and totals on Navy and SD State.
Presently 19-20-1, +0.56 units
Today:
Massachusetts at Connecticut - Under 40
Made me nervous when terrible UMass broke out to 10 points in the first 1.5 quarters, but they were shut out the rest of the way. They had a shot at a meaningless touchdown at the end, down 27-10, which would've killed my bet. But they threw an INT, and that was that.
Winner.
Now 20-20-1, +1.47 units
Here's today's picks. Very moneyline dog heavy, so a lot of variance here.
Totals:
Purdue vs Iowa - Under 39.5
Northwestern vs Ohio State - Under 55.5
Miami Florida vs Florida State - Over 53.5
Spread:
Marshall -3.5 at Old Dominion
Kansas -1 vs Oklahoma State
SMU -3.5 -106 vs Houston
Moneylines:
Tulsa +230 vs Tulane
Texas Tech +260 at TCU
Virginia +240 vs North Carolina
Iowa +150 at Purdue
James Madison +230 at Louisville
Results today:
Here's today's picks. Very moneyline dog heavy, so a lot of variance here.
Totals:
Purdue vs Iowa - Under 39.5 - WON
Northwestern vs Ohio State - Under 55.5 - WON
Miami Florida vs Florida State - Over 53.5 - LOST
Spread:
Marshall -3.5 at Old Dominion - WON
Kansas -1 vs Oklahoma State - WON
SMU -3.5 -106 vs Houston - WON
Moneylines:
Tulsa +230 vs Tulane - LOST
Texas Tech +260 at TCU - LOST
Virginia +240 vs North Carolina - LOST
Iowa +150 at Purdue - WON
James Madison +230 at Louisville - LOST
Obviously those moneylines dragged me down. I didn't think I'd have a winning day going 1-4, especially winning the lowest moneyline out of the five, but I did thanks to a 5-1 day otherwise. I thought it might be 6-0 but Florida/Miami scoring died in the 2nd half, after 34 in the first.
Speaking of scoring, SMU gave up 63 points, yet still easily won 77-63. Not what I expected, but I'll take it.
I finish 6-5 today, +1.08 units
I'm now 26-25-1, +2.55 units
Today:
Central Michigan -2 -116 vs Buffalo (-2.5 -110 ok)
In fact, I'm throwing another pick into the mix involving that game, making it brutal to sweat.
Central Michigan vs Buffalo - Under 53.5 -112 (53 -110 ok)
Connecticut +13.5 vs Liberty
Washington +12.5 at Oregon
Wake Forest -4 vs U North Carolina
Indiana at Ohio State - Over 61.5
LSU at Arkansas - Under 59.5
Louisiana Tech at UTSA - Over 69
I made a big boo-boo. I fat-fingered a mobile interface for a book which makes it way too easy to accidentally bet "max", so I ended up firing 5x what I meant to fire.
Shit.
That's the Indiana game, which got off to a great 28 point 1st quarter, but then the scoring died. 49 points headed into Q4, with OSU up 42-7. Need 13 points.
While I sweat this, here's some more picks:
Charlotte +300 at Middle Tenn (+9.5 ok)
UAB -6.5 vs North Texas
Connecticut +13.5 vs Liberty - W (outright)
Washington +12.5 at Oregon - W (outright)
Wake Forest -4 vs U North Carolina - L
Indiana at Ohio State - Over 61.5 - W
LSU at Arkansas - Under 59.5 - W
Louisiana Tech at UTSA - Over 69 - L
Charlotte +300 at Middle Tenn (+9.5 ok) - L (9.5 would've also lost)
UAB -6.5 vs North Texas - W
Funny that I picked Charlotte for the moneyline, which lost, yet my two other dog picks I went with the pointspread, and both won outright in what would've been great payouts. Wake Forest disappointed a lot of sharp bettors today. Lousiana Tech over seemed to be on pace to easily hit, then it died. Better that one failed than the Indiana over, where I accidentally bet 5x too much, and it won for me.
My posted NCAAF picks record today was 5-3, +1.55 units, but my real life results were 5-3, +5.55 units! Obviously I'm only counting 0.55 for purposes of tracking my record.
On Wednesday, I went 1-1, hitting the spread but losing the under, so that takes me down 0.16 units.
Overall I'm 32-29-1, +3.94 units
Ball State +150 vs Ohio U
Ball State vs Ohio - Over 57.5
Toledo vs Bowling Green - Under 46.5
0-3 yesterday. Ouch.
I fall to 32-32-1, +0.94 units overall
Today:
Miami Ohio -105 at Northern Illinois
Miami Ohio at Northern Illinois - Under 44
Western Michigan at Central Michigan - Under 49.5
Went 2-1 on Wednesday, bringing my record to 34-33-1, +1.76 units. Lost only the Miami Ohio under.
Today:
Tulsa -14 -105 vs South Florida
Tulsa blew it at the end. Record now 34-34-1, +0.76 units.
Today:
UCLA +2.5 vs USC
Arkansas -110 vs Mississippi (-1 ok)
Colorado State +22 at Air Force
UNLV -11 -108 at Hawaii
UCLA +2.5 vs USC - LOSS (by 0.5 points, ugh)
Arkansas -110 vs Mississippi - EASY WIN
Colorado State +22 at Air Force - WIN
UNLV -11 -108 at Hawaii - LOSS
Record now 36-36-1, +0.58 units
Bowling Green +190 at Ohio
Also
Bowling Green at Ohio - Under 52.5
1-1 with the Bowling Green picks, barely winning the under. Now 37-37-1, +0.49
Today:
Tulane +1 at Cincinnati
Western Michigan vs Toledo - Under 52
2-0 yesterday
Now 39-37-1, +2.31 units
James Madison -14.5 vs Coastal Carolina
Notre Dame +165 at USC (+4.5 ok)
Oregon State +130 vs Oregon (+3 ok)
LSU at Texas A&M - Over 47.5
South Carolina at Clemson - Over 53
Won everything except Notre Dame
Now 43-38-1, +5.34 units
Starting at 4:30pm PST
North Texas at UT San Antonio - Over 70
Won the North Texas over. Now 44-38-1, +6.25 units
Kansas State +100 vs TCU
Georgia -17.5 vs LSU
K State / TCU game very weird
First off, the sharps were on K State, and apparently some Vegas casinos had lopsided money on them. So it was better for Vegas if TCU won.
Was close most of the way, but K State had a 28-17 mid-4th lead, and it seemed to be done. But it wasn't. TCU got an FG, and then a TD with 2-point conversion near the very end, and it went to OT.
In OT, TCU had it on the 1 yard line, with 2 chances to get it across. For whatever reason, they called two dumb handoff plays and both failed. K State got possession and ended up kicking a long FG to win it.
Georgia started off sluggish, and in fact it looked like LSU would score the first TD. Then it became a FG kick. Then the kick got blocked, and UGA returned it 95 yards for a TD. Whoops. UGA went into halftime up 35-10, but only covered by 2.5, as the final was 50-30. Good enough.
Now 46-38-1, +8.16 units
I've really turned around this otherwise mediocre NCAAF season, going 9-1 since November 25.
Rice vs Southern Miss - Under 46
Lost. Now 46-39-1, +7.16 units
Bowl game:
Air Force +150 vs Baylor
Easy win. Now 47-39-1, +8.66 units
Forgot to crosspost yesterday's pick here. Good for anyone tailing me, as SD State blew a 14-0 start and lost outright.
SD State -6.5 vs Middle Tenn - LOST
Now 47-40-1, +7.66 units
Kansas +115 vs Arkansas
North Carolina +13 -109 vs Oregon
Central Florida vs Duke - Over 62.5
Kansas vs Arkansas - Over 70
Split the 4. Won the Kansas over and the North Carolina spread. Lost the Kansas moneyline (barely, in 3 OT), and lost the Duke over.
Now 49-42-1, +7.49 units
Iowa -3 vs Kentucky
Ohio State +200 vs Georgia
TCU vs Michigan - Under 58
Really taking some ugly beats here. OSU gave up a 38-24 4th lead. Then got within FG range down 1, failed to gain yards in 3 downs, and a horrible kick was way off to the side.
UGA wins, but not by the spread. Which means I lose because I bet OSU moneyline, not the spread.
Iowa easily won. TCU/Michigan had like 95 points, so that wasn't a good pick.
Now 50-44-1, +6.40 units
That OSU game was a 3-unit swing for me.