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Anyone making any prop bets on the superbowl?
I have placed 3, all on Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert.
over 5.5 receptions +110, $200 to win $220 ($420 return)
over 50.5 yards -114, $200 to win $176 ($376 return)
Over 70.5 yards +154 $60 to win $93 ($153 return)
** winning the over 70.5 yards will mean I have won the over 50.5 yards so basically just looking for a big day from Goedert.
Fell free to share any prop bets, player or game, that you are making.
Which sites have the best risk free bets? Are the state legal ones the only ones worth one go around?
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I actually think you hit a soft spot here and have a good shot. Usually, since defenses tend to take away first options, I look to tight ends to score first TD if the odds are real long, but with Kelce the dominant tight end in the game, no value there for KC and the fact Kelce is even playing makes the opposing tight end someone people look at.
I took nothing. Prepping for the XFL season, which starts shortly.
My favorite torturous prop story is about seven years ago, I won 25K in Super Bowl wagers by winning the Heritage Sports season-long "Race to the SB" handicapping contest. I could have simply bet one side for 25K at Heritage and bet 12.5K somewhere else to net 12K, but instead of doing that, I absolutely tortured myself trying to middle props. I was living in Orange at the time and went to Las Vegas for additional middling options and just about went blind pouring over hundreds of props at 15 books, trying to catch Over this and Under that. When the smoke cleared (and I had to make a lot of bets as some props had $500 limits), I middled exactly one wager -- the longest punt prop. LOL. Just terrible. My eyes were shot from squinting at screens round the clock for a week. I remember my forum tweaking of the inimitable Mr. Singer. I didn't mention I had won the contest. I just said I was thinking of stepping out and betting $35 or so on props and did anyone have any ideas? Rob of course went on a rant about me being broke and pennyante and all that. I purposefully left out the K when I typed $35. Pretty funny.
Second favorite prop story: I had first score FG and no score for x minutes for the Bears/Colts SB. Opening kickoff run back for a TD -- 12 seconds. I turned off the game and watched a Monk marathon the rest of the day.
Added one more prop bet.
Players with a pass attempt: over 2.5. $200 @ +110 ($420 return)
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
That's an interesting one. Mahomes could be tweaked, or someone pulls out a halfback option pass, or Kelce throws another jump pass. That's a good price for that one. I wonder how Toney's arm is.
How much EV do you think KJ has on this bet?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Are you just a beard or are you actually making betting decisions with your clients money that they let you take to Las Vegas?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
When you are there do you keep their money in a safe deposit box in Las Vegas?
Hye, Ditz. It's a game of opinion right. My opinion is I'll take the Eagles plus 3. Friendly $500 wager? Money goes to favorite charity.
Do you think you'll have plus EV on the bet?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Expected Value is a math term. It implies that there is a formula you can apply for the precise calculation of such. Since sports wagers are not coin flips, the use of the term without the phrase "in my subjective opinion" or "in my estimation" is inappropriate. The "Expected" in your phrase "EV" is completely subjective and wildly varying based on who's doing the expecting. So why use a term with no actual precise definition?
If you canvass (1) the top 10 sports gamblers by volume, (2) the top 10 sports gamblers by lifetime winning, or (3) the top 10 handicappers by lifetime record, what you'll discover is that almost none of them use that term. Fezzik and his followers used similar jargon, but Fezzik had a "hallelujah" epiphany where he swore off that kind of declarative certainty.
I suggest if you want a practical summary of what kinds of trouble you can get in using a phrase with mathematical declarative certainty in sports betting, you track down Fezzik and ask him.
So what one has to ask himself is who is using the more appropriate language? Someone like Billy Walters or yourself? The people who have spent a lifetime immersed in serious sports gambling or a bunch of table scraps civilians at VCT or WoV?
A couple of quick examples of how inappropriate using these kinds of declarative math terms really is. Because of the structure of what NFL defenses played this year, using previous totals as some historical data base for estimating EV proved to be wrong. In the NBA, given the priorities certain teams put on resting people when, using previous historical data as a way of estimating EV going forward for road favorites proved to be completely wrong. Sports spreads weren't coin flips before this year; they aren't coin flips during; they won't be coin flips going forward. Pretending they are for the sake of propping up your jargon with some "EV" imprimatur is not only valueless, it can be quite damaging.
Helluva essay. I should copyright it.
By the way, mickey, I'm being recruited to meet with a Pulitzer-winning author. I'm not sure my knowledge base or skill set writing-wise is good enough, but I'm going to do some prep work. You can keep your fingers crossed for me.
It looks like a Plus EV situation.
Oh that hurt. What hurt most than the losing is not winning part. It is the WWF because I lost.
Ditz, you seem to think you can baffle people with bullshit. Not working here. So EV is a "declarative certainty?" WTF? I get it now. You don't even know what Expected Value means. It's a guide as to how one should bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Expected Value is a math term. It implies that there is a formula you can apply for the precise calculation of such. Since sports wagers are not coin flips, the use of the term without the phrase "in my subjective opinion" or "in my estimation" is inappropriate. The "Expected" in your phrase "EV" is completely subjective and wildly varying based on who's doing the expecting. So why use a term with no actual precise definition?
If you canvass (1) the top 10 sports gamblers by volume, (2) the top 10 sports gamblers by lifetime winning, or (3) the top 10 handicappers by lifetime record, what you'll discover is that almost none of them use that term. Fezzik and his followers used similar jargon, but Fezzik had a "hallelujah" epiphany where he swore off that kind of declarative certainty.
I suggest if you want a practical summary of what kinds of trouble you can get in using a phrase with mathematical declarative certainty in sports betting, you track down Fezzik and ask him.
So what one has to ask himself is who is using the more appropriate language? Someone like Billy Walters or yourself? The people who have spent a lifetime immersed in serious sports gambling or a bunch of table scraps civilians at VCT or WoV?
A couple of quick examples of how inappropriate using these kinds of declarative math terms really is. Because of the structure of what NFL defenses played this year, using previous totals as some historical data base for estimating EV proved to be wrong. In the NBA, given the priorities certain teams put on resting people when, using previous historical data as a way of estimating EV going forward for road favorites proved to be completely wrong. Sports spreads weren't coin flips before this year; they aren't coin flips during; they won't be coin flips going forward. Pretending they are for the sake of propping up your jargon with some "EV" imprimatur is not only valueless, it can be quite damaging.
Helluva essay. I should copyright it.
By the way, mickey, I'm being recruited to meet with a Pulitzer-winning author. I'm not sure my knowledge base or skill set writing-wise is good enough, but I'm going to do some prep work. You can keep your fingers crossed for me.
It looks like a Plus EV situation.
You don't like the term. So what?
Who are these people you keep talking about but won't name?
Top ten sports gamblers by volume?
Top ten sports bettors by life time winning?
Top ten handicappers by lifetime record?
Who the fuck are they? Is it some secret fucking society? Name them.
What is your take on Billy Walters joining the Computer Group back in the day? You know, the group that used power stats and ran million game simulations to determine which way to bet? Do you really think "expected value" wasn't involved. Do you think in the simulation the same team won all million games?
No. They would be looking at the average number of points scored by each team then comparing that to the bookie's line. Yes, there can be other factors like weather, turf, etc. But the stats are the biggest part of it.
So it's pretty clear you don't know what "expected value" means
This is the same guy who cites Stu Ungar as a great poker player.
Mixed bag with my prop bets. I won 2 of my 3 Dallas Goedert bets (the bigger 2), but lost the bet I threw in late that more than 2 players would throw a pass, for a small profit of $136. Goedert had 6 catches for 60 yards.
One interesting thing that probably no one outside of people who bet on Goedert realized, is that in the first half, the Eagles ran what most people, including me would call "a sweep" to Goedert around the right end for 7 yards. The ball was flipped from Hurts to Goedert about a foot, but because that flip went forward, it counts as a pass and pass reception. That was the difference in the over 5.5 receptions bet.
I did lose the over 2.5 players to throw a pass that I added late Saturday night. This really is a sucker bet and I fell for it. On the surface it seems likely as there are several scenarios, including one of the starting QB's getting injured and unable to continue, which almost happened. Mahomes re-injury occurred late in the first half and the Chiefs didn't get the ball back before halftime. If they had, I am not sure he could have continued at that time. He needed the halftime break to recovery. Oh well.
Of course, the other possibility for winning this bet is a trick play. Last year's Superbowl had 2 non QB's throw passes and the super bowl 5 years ago between the Eagles and Patriots also had 2 non QB's throw passes (both thrown back to the QB), but other than that, it really doesn't happen often. I think because those plays are memorable, it sort of tricks us into thinking they occur more often than they do and when we see this at plus odds, we are suckered in, as I was. ;)
Bump, redietz
Who are the big names in sports betting?
Who are the top ten guys in betting volume?
Who are the top ten handicappers of all time?
All 3 are me.
I know mickey doesn't really want an answer to this question, he is just trolling Redietz.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
But I think it is the same answer as a question often asked in blackjack circles of who was the best card counter ever? Some think it was Uston (it wasn't), others think one of the players from the MIT teams or many Tommy Hyland team. Maybe Tommy himself. At least one player will tell you it is ZenKing. :rolleyes:
I think it is someone none of us have ever heard of that just went about his business of card counting (probably back in the day long before forums), probably didn't even play all that high stakes, just enough to make a decent living. I think it might be the same for best sports handicapper ever. Some guy we have never heard of, probably didn't even bet massive amounts, spreading his bets around town, just enough to make a good living and not draw any attention.
He's not just trolling, it was a remarkable blunder by redietz to imply that he knows or knows of all these people.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJI know mickey doesn't really want an answer to this question, he is just trolling Redietz.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
But I think it is the same answer as a question often asked in blackjack circles of who was the best card counter ever? Some think it was Uston (it wasn't), others think one of the players from the MIT teams or many Tommy Hyland team. Maybe Tommy himself. At least one player will tell you it is ZenKing. :rolleyes:
I think it is someone none of us have ever heard of that just went about his business of card counting (probably back in the day long before forums), probably didn't even play all that high stakes, just enough to make a decent living. I think it might be the same for best sports handicapper ever. Some guy we have never heard of, probably didn't even bet massive amounts, spreading his bets around town, just enough to make a good living and not draw any attention.
Remarkable blunder hun? :confused: Ok. I don't know. Admittedly, on topics that don't concern me I don't read everything and even what I do read, doesn't mean that much too me. I know redietz likes to throw around Billy Waters name quite a bit. I have no idea if redietz had some sort of association with Billy Waters, worked for him, runner, something like that or if Waters is just someone he admired. I have no idea and it doesn't matter to me. Same with anyone else he may have mentioned that I wouldn't even know who they are.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
But here is what I do know. Ever since redietz made that comment about mickey crimm being on the government take or on the government rolls, because he collects social security, a statement I totally disagree with by the way, mickey has had redietz in his crosshairs and out to discredit him in any way that he can. THAT is mickey. He holds a grudge. ;)
That you say "mickey is not just trolling", seems like you recognise that as well. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJRemarkable blunder hun? :confused: Ok. I don't know. Admittedly, on topics that don't concern me I don't read everything and even what I do read, doesn't mean that much too me. I know redietz likes to throw around Billy Waters name quite a bit. I have no idea if redietz had some sort of association with Billy Waters, worked for him, runner, something like that or if Waters is just someone he admired. I have no idea and it doesn't matter to me. Same with anyone else he may have mentioned that I wouldn't even know who they are.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
But here is what I do know. Ever since redietz made that comment about mickey crimm being on the government take or on the government rolls, because he collects social security, a statement I totally disagree with by the way, mickey has had redietz in his crosshairs and out to discredit him in any way that he can. THAT is mickey. He holds a grudge. ;)
That you say "mickey is not just trolling", seems like you recognise that as well. :)
Bob Dietz was recruited by Billy Walters in 2002. At the time Mr. Walters was recruiting roundtables of experts in all of the major sports. Among the people recommending Dietz to Mr. Walters were the late Larry Fletcher (AKA Southern Comfort), a legendary sports gambler based in Florida who was arbitraging games via programs on computers before there was Windows and Marc Lawrence, who publishes the best-selling football annual and who helmed the top-selling national newsletter PlayBook for decades.
I wasn't declaring that I could reasonably rank the top lifetime winning sports gamblers, top handicappers, or lifetime highest volume bettors, but to point out that while I have worked with some, know some, and have been recruited by some, mickey in contrast knows none, has worked with none, and has been recruited by none. I know people who headed cartels betting 50K and up per game. LOL. Actually, I know them very well. Mickey knows none.
Mickey should stick to what he knows, because most of what he has to say about sports betting is horribly naive. I would never try to fake expertise in machine gambling, which is what mickey does with sports betting. He's completely unfamiliar with the entire subculture, who does what, and who bets what.
In fact, I think my contribution in 2023 to this site will be posting bios of some of the legendary sports gamblers, handicappers, and people in the industry. Then you can track them down and see if they know me in any way, shape or form. I think I'll start with handicappers.
Thanks for the idea, guys.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJI know mickey doesn't really want an answer to this question, he is just trolling Redietz.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
But I think it is the same answer as a question often asked in blackjack circles of who was the best card counter ever? Some think it was Uston (it wasn't), others think one of the players from the MIT teams or many Tommy Hyland team. Maybe Tommy himself. At least one player will tell you it is ZenKing. :rolleyes:
I think it is someone none of us have ever heard of that just went about his business of card counting (probably back in the day long before forums), probably didn't even play all that high stakes, just enough to make a decent living. I think it might be the same for best sports handicapper ever. Some guy we have never heard of, probably didn't even bet massive amounts, spreading his bets around town, just enough to make a good living and not draw any attention.
It varies by sport and era, as with most things. The point is mickey has no idea and hasn't met, worked for, or competed against any of them. I have.
In the 70's and 80's, you'd have to list Tony Salinas and Mike Lee of High Rollers, who were NFL and college football experts respectively. In the 80's, 90's and 2000's, probably wise to mention Doc and Dave Malinsky and Phil Steele at NorthCoast, although to what degree Steele "did his own thing" is debated by some. Certainly you have to mention The Computer Group, helmed by Billy Walters in the late 80's and early 90's. For longevity, Marc Lawrence himself must be mentioned, as he has done reasonably well for decades, although some might argue his recruitment and administrative skills augmented his handicapping mightily. Larry Fletcher, although not exclusively a "handicapper," would have to be on the list, as Fletcher is the only handicapper and professional gambler I knew who I believe won every year. Fletcher worked closely with Mike Lee.
If you don't know who Mike Lee is, or Tony Salinas, or Doc, you really should not be debating sports handicapping. If you've never heard of Southern Comfort, you're forgiven as he was private and non-commercial except for The Wise Guys Contest.
As I mentioned in another post, I may have some reasonably high-profile writing assignments in my future, so while I'd love to meet all of you brilliant "APs," I just don't have the time. But I will make an effort to post bios of some of the most famous sports betting industry icons. Because all of you anonymous dudes should learn a little about how the non-anonymous half lives.
I heard there's a continent called Asia.
Not trolling. Would like Ditz' take on the best. Of course, his list will look different from other sportsbettors' lists. The problem with listening to redietz on this forum is we are getting the opinions of just one professional sports bettor. We need more input on this fascinating subject. I'm working to remedy that. Redietz is either to secretive or just bluffing his way thru it.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJI know mickey doesn't really want an answer to this question, he is just trolling Redietz.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
But I think it is the same answer as a question often asked in blackjack circles of who was the best card counter ever? Some think it was Uston (it wasn't), others think one of the players from the MIT teams or many Tommy Hyland team. Maybe Tommy himself. At least one player will tell you it is ZenKing. :rolleyes:
I think it is someone none of us have ever heard of that just went about his business of card counting (probably back in the day long before forums), probably didn't even play all that high stakes, just enough to make a decent living. I think it might be the same for best sports handicapper ever. Some guy we have never heard of, probably didn't even bet massive amounts, spreading his bets around town, just enough to make a good living and not draw any attention.