Miami (Luzardo) vs Mets (D. Peterson) - Under 8 -117
Luzardo and Peterson both looked great in the spring, and there's a wind blowing in at humid Miami.
Printable View
Miami (Luzardo) vs Mets (D. Peterson) - Under 8 -117
Luzardo and Peterson both looked great in the spring, and there's a wind blowing in at humid Miami.
Won the under pick above easily. Today:
Spring training aftermath edition
Minnesota -120 (Mahle) at Miami (Cueto) - Johnny Cueto battled arm soreness during spring training, and pitched poorly when he wasn't sitting out. Tyler Mahle also had his struggles, but looked good in his last spring outing. He also doesn't have a sore arm.
St. Louis (Woodford) +110 vs Atlanta (Morton) - In another pick fading a has-been pitcher, Charlie Morton had a bad end to 2022, saw some control issues in the spring, and is facing Jake Woodford who had a spring ERA of just over 2.00.
Won Minnesota, lost St. Louis.
In the spirit of has-been pitchers to fade, here's another.
Kenta Maeda had some nice years with the Dodgers and Twins. Then came his Tommy John surgery, and he missed all of 2022. At age 34, he's trying to be relevant again. However, his fastball is averaging under 90 mph, and he walked 10 in 14 spring innings, giving up 8 runs in the process.
Who is he facing? One Sandy Alcantara, who had a mediocre first start (just like last year), but a great spring (0.68 ERA, 0.75 WHIP).
The Twins' perfect record ends today.
Miami (S. Alcantara) -138 vs Minnesota (Maeda)
Squeaked by 1-0. CG for Alcantara. Now 3-1 on the season.
Today:
St. Louis burned me for my only loss of the season so far (I'm 3-1 in the early goings), but I'm going to try them again.
Miles Mikolas had a great 2022 season, and then a very nice spring 2023. Somehow that didn't translate to his first regular season start, where he got bombed. But I think he's going to pitch better today. In his first start, he allowed 10 hits, but 5 of them were soft singles, and there were no HR against him. He also didn't walk anyone, and struck out 6 in 3 1/3 innings. It was one of those "bad starts" where the box score looks much worse than he actually pitched.
Bryce Elder, on the other hand, allowed 8 runs in 11 innings this spring, and failed to make the rotation. He's only pitching because Max Fried is injured.
The Cards have lost both games at home versus the Braves, but I think they take this day game which starts at 10:35am PDT.
St. Louis (Mikolas) -128 vs Atlanta (Elder)
Lost Cards again.
Washington (Gore) +106 at Colorado (Urena)
Won Washington.
Today:
Angels (T. Anderson) -117 vs Toronto (Berrios)
Berrios looking awful.
Anderson looking great.
Won again.
Now 5-2.
Today:
White Sox (Cease) -128 at Minnesota (Maeda)
Cease has 18 K through 2 starts.
Won again.
I've decided to fire on Colorado tonight.
Let me count the ways:
1) Kyle Freeland has surprised everyone with two excellent starts.
2) Miles Mikolas has surprised everyone by looking really, really bad in his two starts. He's given up 10 runs and 19 hits in his first 2 starts. The only thing he's done well is avoiding walking people (12 K, 1 BB).
3) Mikolas has been historically bad at Coors Field.
4) Rockies tend to be tough at home, even during fail years. Here you're getting a nice price on them.
Colorado (Freeland) +155 vs St. Louis (Mikolas)
Rockies had 6-2 lead and blew it late.
0-3 now in games involving Cardinals, 6-0 otherwise.
Let's keep that going.
Arizona (Jameson) -127 vs Milwaukee (Junk)
Starting soon.
I've been really vascillating on this one, but ok.
Kansas City (B. Keller) +145 at Texas (Eovaldi)
KC easily won, 10-1.
Okay, another one I'm on the fence with, but since it worked out yesterday with KC, I will do it again.
Today we have Minnesota with Joe Ryan, arguably the most improved pitcher in the AL. Ryan had a great performance last time out, getting 19 swinging strikes in 6 innings, and a 41% "CSW" (called strikes + whiffs) rate. When you see a pitcher doing that shit, you know he's in the zone. He gave up 4 runs due to a grand slam, but otherwise shut down the Astros.
The Twins are off to a nice start, leading the AL Central.
Minnesota (Ryan) +119 at Yankees (Brito)
9-0 in first inning. Super easy win.
Here's a game for tonight.
Possibly 2 more incoming.
Baltimore (T. Wells) -118 at White Sox (Clevinger)
Expect more Clevinger fades before we are done here.
Okay, here's your two more.
In the spirit of the Baltimore pick, these are also fades.
FADING OLD MAN CHARLIE MORTON:
Kansas City (Singer) +117 vs Atlanta (Morton)
FADING TOMMY MILONE WHO HAS A 2020s ERA OF AROUND 6.50:
Colorado (Gomber) +152 at Seattle (Milone)
I'm 9-3 so far this season, including some dog wins. I'm 9-0 in games not involving St. Louis.
Obviously something has gotta give at some point, but I'll keep riding this as long as I can.
How dare you call Chucky Morton old when you're buddy Singer is 30 years older! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I finally had a losing MLB day, going 1-2 yesterday, only winning Orioles with a comeback. Rockies tried to come back but failed, and KC got blown out.
So what better to do than make the same mistake again, and once again fade the Braves?
This time we have a better pitcher going.
Despite a bad 2022, Kris Bubic had a great spring, and has been excellent in his two starts with KC. He has a 1.64 ERA, a 0.909 WHIP, and a 13/1 K-BB ratio.
The downside? He's up against Bryce Edler, who has also pitched great in 2023. But I believe KC will come back with a win after yesterday's blowout on their own field.
Kansas City +122 (Bubic) vs Atlanta (Edler)
Lost again.
Sunday MLB plop bets
Cleveland -1.5 -135 (Bieber) at Washington (Corbin)
Cleveland/Washington over 9 -110
There are several attractive things about the Rockies today:
1) Freeland is killing it
2) Rich Hill is 43 and finally showing his age (7.20 ERA)
3) Rockies are at home, where they are always tough
4) Pittsburgh is a failteam
On the minus side, sharps seem to like the Pirates tonight. I don't agree.
Colorado (Freeland) -134 vs Pittsburgh (Hill)
2-1 yesterday, only losing the Rockies pick I added on. Personally I also lost a live bet I made on the Giants, but those aren't part of my posted record.
I posted these 2 winning picks on my PFA site but forgot to paste here:
Houston (Javier) +104 vs Toronto (Gausman)
Arizona +131 (M. Kelly) at St. Louis (Flaherty)
Today:
Betting overs is so ploppy, so let's mix this up with a sharper-looking first 5 bet.
Look at the stats of Yankee Clarke Schmidt. He has an 8.44 ERA and 1.969 WHIP. He's allowing a lot of hard hit balls, and isn't getting swings-and-misses often. He will be dropped from the rotation when the Yankees are past their injury issues.
Now look at Jose Suarez of the Angels. After a decent 2022, Suarez is getting torched this year. His ERA is 10.80, to go with a WHIP of 2.280. Even in his not-so-bad spring, he had a 1.73 WHIP. He is also giving up hard hit balls.
How's the weather in NY? Glad you asked. 12mph wind blowing out.
Looks like a good bet that 6+ runs will come across in the first 5 innings.
Angels (J. Suarez) at Yankee (C. Schmidt) - OVER 5 -105 -- FIRST 5 INNINGS
Winner in the bottom of the 4th.
Let's try to keep it going with another ploppy pick.
Spencer Strider has been the breakout pitcher of the NL, and he's keeping it going in 2023, generating 27 K in just 16 IP. Even in his last "down" outing, he had an excellent 39% CSW (called and swinging strikes), and got 23 swings and misses in just 5 innings!
He faces a pitcher on the opposite end of the spectrum. Blake Snell is struggling badly, just like the beginning of 2022. He has an ERA near 7, and a WHIP over 2.1. He has a 16/10 K-BB ratio.
For just a low low price of -132, you too can have the Braves tonight.
Atlanta (Strider) -132 at San Diego (Snell)
8-1 Atlanta, though it wasn't a blowout like this until the end.
2-0 day.
Totals so far:
15-8, +6.34 units
Oh WoW! I haven't been following. Another fast start for you. Good for you, Dan Druff. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Backing Joe Ryan again, this time against has-been Kluber.
Minnesota (J. Ryan) -130 at Boston (Kluber)
Won again,. Easy the entire way, as Minnesota got up 3-0 in the 1st, and was up 7-0 very soon after. Final score was 10-4.
Now 16-8, +7.11 units
The nice thing here is that most of the 16 wins were very decisive. These weren't cheapies where the pick was bad but I lucked into victory. The vast majority were clear victories nearly the whole way.
To be fair, some of my 8 losses were also blowouts, but I also had a few close ones in there, where I was leading late and lost it.
So far I'm feeling very good about my baseball strategy. Notice I made a single under pick to start the season, and have not made any further unders, due to the uncertainty regarding how the new rules affect scoring.
Also notice that I am now carefully monitoring CSW (called strike / whiff) rate and swinging strike rate for pitchers, in addition to velocity and K/BB ratio, which I was monitoring already in prior years.
Starting soon:
Cincinnati (Ashcraft) +133 at Pittsburgh (M. Keller)
Can you believe Pittsburgh is 13-7, and leads the NL in scoring? It's true.
But some of this is a mirage, as a lot of their big output games were either in Colorado, or against bad pitchers.
Graham Ashcraft is not a bad pitcher. He's off to a tremendous start in 2023, with a 1.42 ERA, and throws 95-98 mph with above average movement. He even held his own visiting the tough Braves in Altanta.
Mitch Keller isn't bad, but he's not great. His velocity isn't as good as Ashcraft's, he has a 25/10 K-BB ratio, and he's averaging about a hit allowed per inning. His CSW also isn't particularly impressive so far.
This looks like a letdown game for upstart Pittsburgh, and even though the Reds are bad, some of that has been due to poor pitching. They're still averaging well over 4 runs per game.
Two more picks:
Yankees (D. German) -126 vs Toronto (Kikuchi)
Domingo German has a 19/5 K-BB ratio in just 14 innings, and has posted 39% and 43% CSW ratios in 2 of his 3 starts. Not the biggest fan of his in previous years, but he's looking pretty good thus far. He faces Yusei Kikuchi, who is coming off a good start against the Rays, but otherwise hasn't been impressive. He gave up a lot of hard hit balls in his previous two starts, including the one against the weak Royals, where he lucked out and only gave up 1 ER.
The so-far-underachieving and banged up Yankees are at home and have the much better pitcher going tonight.
San Francisco (DeSclafani) -110 vs Mets (Lucchesi)
DeScalfani is a weird pitcher, who seems to be either excellent (2021, 2023) or awful (2022) in a given year. Fortunately it's an odd year, and he's killing it so far, in what appears to be a major bounceback from his disasterous 2022 which ended in injury. He has a 16/0 K-BB ratio, and a 1.42 ERA, to go with a 0.634 WHIP thus far.
He faces the Mets who are starting a guy off Tommy John surgery, who has never registered an ERA below 4. He last pitched in MLB in 2021.
Ugly 0-3.
Today:
Cleveland (L. Allen) -120 vs Miami (Luzardo)
Winner with Cleveland.
I done fucked up with the Giants game tonight. I meant to bet them earlier at +107, then got busy with something, now it's -111.
Do I still like it?
Yes. Not quite the value it once was (I just taxed myself 16%), but I believe it's a winning pick.
San Francisco (Cobb) -111 vs St. Louis (Montgomery)
Locked in a 0-0 tie, the Giants hung four in the 7th, and cruised the rest of the way 4-0. Nice way to bounce back after my 0-3 day, going 2-0 since on low favorites.
Now 18-11, +5.84 units
Let's Ride with Ryan again, in what might or might not end up being a pitchers duel.
Minnesota -126 (Ryan) vs Yankees (Cortes)
Winner again.
Considered a few different plays today, but talked myself out of all of them... except one.
This starts in about 20 minutes. This is yet another has-been pitcher fade. For whatever reason, 2023 is full of has-been starters who somehow still have a job in MLB.
Today's particular has-been makes sense to still have a job, as he channeled his old self in 2022, after years of getting clobbered. Michael Wacha turned back the clock and became his 2018 version last year, pitching very well for the Red Sox.
The Padres foolishly thought this would last longer than just one fluke year, and signed him for 2023. He has been awful so far, getting hammered in 3 of his 4 starts.
On the other end of the spectrum, we have Drew Smyly, one of 2019's worst pitchers, who had a nice, under- the-radar season for the Cubs in 2022, and almost had a perfect game last time out against the Dodgers. In his last 18 1/3 innings, Smyly has allowed just 7 hits, and 2 runs, over 3 starts.
Take the Cubbies at home here.
Cubs (Smyly) -105 vs San Diego (Wacha)
Cubs lost above.
Been light on the MLB betting this week, but I have two picks for you today.
Tampa Bay (Faucher) at White Sox (Lynn) - OVER 9 -120
Anthony Faucher not only messed up the pandemic response, but he's also way too old to be pitching MLB at 82. I can't see how the White Sox don't score 15 runs off him before recording an out.
Oh wait... that's Fauci. But Faucher is just an opener, and not a very good one at that. It's a bullpen game for Tampa, and Lance Lynn has both lost velocity in 2023 and has not yet had a good outing. Oh... and an 11pmh wind is blowing out, tonight in Chicago.
Angels (Detmer) +128 at Milwaukee (Burnes)
This one feels like a bad bet on the surface, with Burnes being so dominant over the last few years, and Detmer being a mediocrity at best. However, Burnes isn't quite 100% from his pec strain, and even before that, he wasn't pitching like himself. Detmers looked good in his last outing, despite allowing 7 hits in 5 2/3 innings, as he generated 22 swinging strikes out of 90 pitches, and had a 37% CSW. A pick on the Brewers looks like a trap here.
Split 'em, winning the Tampa over, losing Angels.
Today:
Guys, you aren't going to get a chance again to bet an under 19.5 in MLB (except live), so you really should do this today.
This is what's known as a market overcorrection.
San Francisco (Cobb) vs San Diego (Darvish) - Mexico City - Under 19.5 -105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
great call - they were almost giving away money - when I saw the o/u line early in the a.m. it was 20.5 - totally unheard of - the previous night's score was 16-11 - that's what caused the overcorrection
Yu Darvish ERA 3.00 and Alex Cobb ERA 1.91 were the pitchers
.
Thanks. Easily won that under, which had only 10 runs score.
Today:
Kluber going today, and the wind is blowing out of Fenway at 11mph. 'Nuff said.
Toronto (Berrios) at Boston (Kluber) - Over 5.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS +105
3-2 after 1.5 innings. I was pretty much counting my money, especially given that both teams have had runners in scoring position every inning. Nope! Can't get that damn 6th run across.
Indeed, after a million runners left on base, it was still 3-2 after 5 innings. The over 10 for the game easily covered, too. Ugh.
Today:
There's no bigger "sleeper" disappointment in 2023 than Hayden Wesneski. Many expected him to be a Strider-like breakout candidate, and instead he's mostly been a fail. While he pitched well against the Padres (though lasted only 5 innings), he simply isn't missing bats, holding a 15/8 K-BB ratio in 22 1/3 innings, and a 5.24/1.522 ERA/WHIP.
Trevor Williams has been exactly what the Nationals were expecting. He's giving them 5-6 innings, allowing around 3 runs each time. No strong outings yet, no terrible outings yet.
This game, taking place in DC, should be more of a toss-up. The dog line is good value here.
Washington (T. Williams) +124 vs Cubs (Wesneski)
Record on 4/24: Now 18-11, +5.84 units
Minnesota -126 (Ryan) vs Yankees (Cortes) - WON
Cubs (Smyly) -105 vs San Diego (Wacha) - LOST
Tampa Bay (Faucher) at White Sox (Lynn) - OVER 9 -120 - WON
Angels (Detmer) +128 at Milwaukee (Burnes) - LOST
San Francisco (Cobb) vs San Diego (Darvish) - Mexico City - Under 19.5 -105 - WON
Toronto (Berrios) at Boston (Kluber) - Over 5.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS +105 - LOST
Washington (T. Williams) +124 vs Cubs (Wesneski) - WON
Since April 25: 4-3, +0.81 units
Overall: 22-14, +6.65 units
Dare I dip my toe back into the MLB under water?
Very nervous, but here goes.
Washington (Irvin) vs Cubs (Stroman) - Under 8 -115
Pretty easy victory, 2-1 Nats final. A few moments where scoring chances were blown on both sides (including top of the 9th), but ended up winning by a whopping 5 runs.
Now 23-14, +7.52 units
Very solid start to the MLB season for me. Most notably, aside from that outlier 0-3 day, I've had no losing streaks, and most of my winning picks have done so pretty easily, whereas a number of my 14 losses were close.
Feeling very good so far.
.
The Tampa Bay Rays are currently 26-6 - the best 32 game start since the 1984 Detroit Tigers
they have:
scored the most runs in the majors
have the highest batting average
the best on base slugging %
and the most home runs
they have allowed the fewest runs and homers
and have the lowest opponents average and O.P.S.
wow
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/04/s...-bay-rays.html
.
Oakland (Muller) at Kansas City (B. Keller) - OVER 10 -110
Keller has a 24/24 K-BB ratio. Ouch.
Muller has a 6.28 ERA, 1.919 WHIP, and a 20/15 K-BB ratio.
To say that runners get on base against these two would be an understatement.
Won yesterday.
Washington (Gore) +110 at Arizona (Henry)
Seattle (B. Miller) -132 vs Houston (Bielak)
Oakland (Muller) at Kansas City (B. Keller) - OVER 10 -110 - WON
Washington (Gore) +110 at Arizona (Henry) - LOST (brutal -- 5 run comeback in 9th was then blown in bottom of 9th)
Seattle (B. Miller) -132 vs Houston (Bielak) - WON
Now 25-15, +8.19 units
Starting very shortly:
Cleveland (Bibee) vs Detroit (Wentz) - Under 7.5 -105
More soon.
Another last minute one:
Tampa Bay (McClanahan) at Baltimore (K. Gibson) - OVER 8.5 -105
One more for tonight:
Houston (H. Brown) -120 at Angels (P. Sandoval)
Hunter Brown is an under-the-radar pitching prospect. In 55 innings since his 2022 debut, he has a 1.96 ERA and 1.145 WHIP. The only knock against him this year is the 15 BB he's given up in 34 innings. He's coming off a wild start against the Giants where he walked 5 in fewer than 5 innings, but I believe he will right the ship today.
Neither of my totals are going well so far. Detroit/Cleveland has 6 runs through 4 innings, so that's likely toast. Tampa/Baltimore has just 1 run through 2 2/3 innings. Sad!
0-3 day. Cherry on top was the Astros blowing the lead, being locked in a 4-4 tie for awhile, losing 6-4 late.
Also lost the Tigers under by 0.5.
My MLB season so far:
April 21 and May 8: 0-6, -6.00 units
All other days I made picks: 25-12, +11.19 units
Overall: 25-18, +5.19 units
Let's try to recover from yesterday with this pick:
New York (D. Peterson) at Cincinnati (Weaver) - Over 5.5 -125 - FIRST 5 INNINGS
Winner, though it took til the bottom of the 5th to hit.
Morning baseball!
Colorado (Senzatela) +124 at Pittsburgh (Hill)
In case you didn't get in the bet on the Rockies at 9:35am, here are some games a bit later:
Cincinnati (Greene) +134 vs Mets (Verlander)
Philadelphia (Wheeler) vs Toronto (Gausman) - Under 8.5 -120
St. Louis (Montgomery) at Cubs (Steele) - Under 7.5 -125
2-2, winning Colorado & Philly under
Today:
Yankees (German) -116 vs Tampa (Rasmussen)
Yankees about to lose big, but someone on my other forum found a good one for the night game.
Texas (Eovaldi) vs Oakland (Medina) - Texas over 2.5 runs in first 5 innings -130
Here is our friend Luis Medina this year: https://www.baseball-reference.com/r...=pgl&year=2023
Note he got bombed by a very tough offense on May 3 -- the Sacramento River Cats.
Over 2.5 Texas -130 first 5 innings is a great bet.
Note that one source has Zach Neal starting instead of Medina, but he hasn't pitched in MLB in 5 years, so same difference.
Lost both on Thursday.
Last minute:
Cleveland (Quantrill) vs Angels (Detmer) - Under 8 +100
Detmers looking good so far like I thought. Sadly Quantrill is having a bad game, and it's 3-0 Angels in the 3rd. Toss up so far whether this wins.
Here's another one starting soon:
Baltimore (T. Wells) vs Pittsburgh (R. Contreras) - Under 8.5 -113
One more pick.
Ranger Suarez is back from injury, and has to face the Rockies in Denver for his first assignment. Not easy. I don't predict this goes well for him.
Colorado (Feltner) +125 vs Philadelphia (R. Suarez) - FIRST 5 INNINGS
1-2, only winning Baltimore under
I'm in my first real slump here, now 3-7 in my last 10.
Last minute:
Baltimore (Rodrigues) +104 vs Angels (Ohtani)
Seattle (Kirby) -117 at Boston (Houck)
1-1, winning Seattle.
Last minute:
Toronto (Gausman) vs Yankees (German) - Under 8 -105
More coming shortly
Texas (Dunning) -105 vs Atlanta (Shuster)
Dunning is a converted reliever who has had two great starts. Shuster has an ERA over 8, and while pitching fairly well at AAA, hasn't been able to figure out Major League batters.
Split those two, winning Texas, losing the under.
Starting soon:
Cleveland (Quantrill) +128 at Mets (Carrasco)
Carrasco coming off injury, and pitched very poorly before the injury. Quantrill had a solid-to-great start in 4 of his past 5 outings, including 2 shutouts.
Awful beat on yesterday's game.
Last minute:
Seattle (Gilbert) +116 at Atlanta (Chavez)
Won Seattle
Today:
Miami (Luzardo) +113 at San Francisco (Wood)
Wood is still building up after missing time with an injury.
Lost Miami yesterday.
Starting soon
Detroit (Lorenzen) at Kansas City (Singer) - Under 8.5 -105
Lost under yesterday.
Starting soon
Cleveland (L. Allen) -123 vs White Sox (Cease)
Cubs (Smyly) -110 vs Mets (Megill)
Last minute:
Cincinnati (Lively) +142 vs St. Louis (Matz)
Won Cincinnati above easily.
Today:
Cardinals and Injuns have tortured me, where I seem to lose no matter which way I bet on each of them.
How about a game with both?
The Injuns have the worst offense in baseball (just 169 runs scored in 49 games). The Cardinals, looking horrendous earlier in the season, are starting to look a bit better, and Matthew Liberatore has pitched well both in the minors and during his one start this year.
St. Louis (M. Liberatore) +102 at Cleveland (Bieber)
Two more for tonight.
I hate overs in Colorado, but I'm making an exception tonight. Also, I'm fading Gausman. Not for the faint of heart, either of these bets.
Colorado (Seabold) vs Mets (Scherzer) - Over 11.5 +100
Minnesota (Varland) +130 vs Toronto (Gausman)
Officially slumping. Lost all 3.
Starting shortly:
Arizona (Davies) -102 vs Boston (Whitlock)
Lost on the 27th.
Let's do an over today. Tyler Anderson, who is back to his mediocre self after one outlier year with the Dodgers, against Lucas Giolito, who is back to his mediocre self after one good start on May 20.
Angels (Ty. Anderson) at White Sox (Gioito) - OVER 9.5 -104
Won yesterday.
Today:
Pittsburgh (M. Keller) +108 at San Francisco (Wood)
Don't let Keller's allowance of 6 runs last start scare you. He didn't look bad, went 6 innings, and struck out 8.
Won yesterday.
Today:
Angels (Detmer) +130 at Houston (R. Blanco)
Lost yesterday.
Today:
Arizona (M. Kelly) +106 vs Atlanta (Morton)
Won yesterday.
Last minute
Seattle (Woo) +132 at Texas (Heaney)
Here's one you have time to bet.
Minnesota (Gray) -134 vs Cleveland (L. allen)
Lost yesterday
Now:
Yankees (German) at Dodgers (B. Miller) - Under 8.5 -104
Won yesterday easily.
Night game:
San Diego (Snell) vs Chicago (Hendricks) - Over 9 -115
Lost yesterday.
Detroit (Alexander) +160 at Philadelphia (T. Walker)
Walker has major velocity issues
Boston (Paxton) -103 at Cleveland (Bieber)
Paxton looking like his old self.