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Went 50-44-1, +6.40 units in my 95 picks last year in NCAA Football. That was my first season doing it. Not spectacular, but pretty good.
NCAA Basketball was a fail, and I won't be trying that again.
Here's my first 3 picks of the 23-24 season:
Massachusetts +35.5 at Auburn
Purdue vs Fresno State - Under 47
Louisiana Monroe +9 vs Army
Colorado State vs Washington State - Under 54.5
Also bet San Jose State +14.5 vs Oregon State on Sunday, which I forgot to post on this site, but posted on my PFA site.
So that makes me 1-4 to start the year, only winning LA Monroe. Ouch.
NFL!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
LOL. You lucky bastard!! Actually, I could make a case for ULM +10, the initial line.
Dan, I lost one game this week. I had Army teased to -1 1/2. That was a miraculous loss for me. How can you be up 13-3 with five minutes left and go multiple blitz on first down against a team that had done absolutely nothing against you for 55 minutes??? ULM ran a trap right up the middle, down 10 with five minutes left, to break a 60-yard run. Then Army, up three, converts third-and-long with a pass to midfield with three minutes left, and the kid prances around and fumbles the ball. Then you have a very questionable fade in the end zone that's called a TD. Brutal.
Army revamped its offense, which is terrible. It's a sin because they have their best defense in decades.
Also had Liberty Over teased to Texans/Ravens Over this week. Had Iowa State vs. Northern Iowa teased to UTSA vs. Houston. Had UNC moneyline and Toledo spread. Almost moneylined Toledo, which would have been heartbreaking. So off to a good start. But that Army teaser was a bad, bad loss.
Well, hopefully I don't embarrass myself here, being 1-4 and making all these picks on Week 2:
Georgia Southern -7 -105 vs UAB (don't take if line goes to -7.5)
Texas Tech +195 vs Oregon (+6 ok)
Sam Houston +14 -114 vs Air Force (buy 0.5 points to get to +14)
Ball State +42 -110 at Georgia
Rice +8 -110 vs Houston (0.5 units)
Rice +265 vs Houston (0.5 units)
NC State +235 vs Notre Dame
Lots of variance here, as 2.5 of the 6 units bet are on +195 to +265 dogs.
One more, starting soon:
Troy +15.5 at Kansas State (down to 14.5 ok)
Crazy day.
Ball State +42 somehow tied lol. Great first quarter (tied), awful second (GA scored 31), and somehow still tied it overall.
Started out getting crushed with Troy and NC State not even coming close, so I was 0-2-1.
Then it looked really good for the other games, with Texas Tech up 27-18 in the 4th, Rice was up 28-0 in the 2nd quarter and 28-7 at halftime, and Sam Houston was tied 3-3 late (just needed to cover 14).
Then horrible coaching blew the Texas Tech lead and they lost 38-30. Was a lot closer actually, as they were up 30-28 in the final minute, gave up a FG, but quickly got close to FG range themselves before throwing an interception. Ugh.
Then Rice blew the lead, and they went to OT 28-28. Then Houston scored to lead 35-28, Rice tied it 35-35. Then in 2OT, Rice scored a TD, went for a 2 point conversion, failed, but got to redo thanks to a penalty. Then they converted. Houston then came back with their own TD, and BARELY missed completing the 2-point conversion. Game over, Rice wins 43-41. Wow.
Sam Houston fell behind 13-3 with time left and I thought I might get screwed, but that ended up being the final.
So....
Georgia Southern -7 -105 vs UAB - W +0.95 units
Texas Tech +195 vs Oregon - L -1.00 units
Sam Houston +14 -114 vs Air Force - W +0.88 units
Ball State +42 -110 at Georgia - TIED
Rice +8 -110 vs Houston (0.5 units) - W +0.45 units
Rice +265 vs Houston (0.5 units) - W +1.33 units
NC State +235 vs Notre Dame - L -1.00 units
Troy +15.5 at Kansas State - L -1.00 units
3-3-1, +0.61 units
GRAND TOTAL: 4-7-1, -2.48 units
Eight spot of NCAAF picks today
If you have big balls, parlay it
Mine aren't that big
Charlotte +205 vs Georgia State
Florida +177 vs Tennessee
Iowa -28 -110 vs Western Michigan
Northwestern +17 -110 at Duke
Miami OH +14 -110 at Cincinnati
New Mexico -2.5 -110 vs New Mexico State
Purdue vs Syracuse - Under 56.5 -108
Houston vs TCU - Over 64 -110
Results:
Charlotte +205 vs Georgia State - L -1.00 units
Florida +177 vs Tennessee - W +1.77 units (easily!)
Iowa -28 -110 vs Western Michigan - W +0.91 units (barely)
Northwestern +17 -110 at Duke - L -1.00 units
Miami OH +14 -110 at Cincinnati - W +0.91 units (outright!)
New Mexico -2.5 -110 vs New Mexico State - L -1.00 units
Purdue vs Syracuse - Under 56.5 -108 - W +0.93 units (barely)
Houston vs TCU - Over 64 -110 - L -1.00 units
So that's 4-4. Florida +177 was a decisive victory, which was nice. I did have two close, last-minute wins in the Purdue under and Iowa spread. Miami OH could have been a monster win if I had moneyline. But I bet spread.
All of it shook out to a very similar result to last week. I won 0.52 units.
That takes my overall record to 8-11, -1.96 units
"Barely" doesn't begin to describe what occurred in this game. I was on the other end, having taken Western Mich +28. I thought 28 point were too many for a team with a suspect offense to cover.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Western Michigan dominated the first half, but a late turnover lead to a TD that put Iowa up 14-10 at halftime. Still in excellent shape getting 28 points. Iowa dominated the second half with Western Michigan scoring no points and repeatedly unable to move the ball and giving it back to Iowa. But Iowa's slow methodical offense still gave me a good chance to pull this one out. With the score 31-10 with 5 minutes left Iowa was driving inside the 10 year line driving for a TD that would make this game a push for me. When Western Mich stiffened and held them to a FG and 34-10 lead, I figured I had won as if Iowa got the ball back it would be time to take a knee.
Well Iowa did get the ball back with less than a minute left and instead of taking a knee, they threw 3 straight passes, to score a TD with less than 30 seconds left to cover. As sports bettors, we occasionally, or frequently are involved in games that are classified as "bad beats". This one was a little irritating because passing 3 times in the final minute with a 24 point lead, so you can drive down the field and score a touchdown, is sort of bad sportsmanship. 99.9% of teams would have taken a knee. Almost felt like Iowa coaches had some incentive to cover the spread. :rolleyes:
Let's try to get above water here. Man can't eat on NFL alone.
Texas A&M -9 -110 vs Auburn
Cal +20 -109 at Washington
Sam Houston +11 -110 at Houston
Florida Intl +10 -110 vs Liberty
Oregon -21 -110 vs Colorado
Ball State +185 vs GA Southern
Wake Forest v Georgia Tech - under 58.5 -110
Fresno State v Kent state - under 47.5 -110
That's crazy to say. Assuming you have an advantage on NFL then OFC you can. Why would you ever waste your time on something you're -EV on(?) when you can get unlimited action in on the NFL?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Axel, I don't think most of us are doing it the way you do, using a very large number of sportsbooks and just writing off the ones that stiff you as cost if business.
Most of us find a handful (at most) sportsbooks, that we trust with honest timely payoffs, often recommended by friends that have had good experiences. So most of us don't have "unlimited" betting.
But I am glad this high volume approach is working for you.
Texas A&M -9 -110 vs Auburn - WON +0.91
Cal +20 -109 at Washington - LOST (almost had last second comeback tie) -1.00
Sam Houston +11 -110 at Houston - LOST (big) -1.00
Florida Intl +10 -110 vs Liberty - LOST (big) -1.00
Oregon -21 -110 vs Colorado - WON (big) +0.91
Ball State +185 vs GA Southern - LOST (big) -1.00
Wake Forest v Georgia Tech - under 58.5 -110 - WON +0.91
Fresno State v Kent state - under 47.5 -110 - LOST -1.00
Total 3-5, -2.27 units
Grand total: 11-16, -4.23 units
I think I'm going to quit these big spread dogs, as I can't seem to get them right.
Too much variance. I've clearly been lucky in NFL. The question is how much of it has been luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfThat's crazy to say. Assuming you have an advantage on NFL then OFC you can. Why would you ever waste your time on something you're -EV on(?) when you can get unlimited action in on the NFL?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I'm expecting about the same results or better as last season. If you can't deliver I'm taking my business elsewhere and leaving a bad review.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffToo much variance. I've clearly been lucky in NFL. The question is how much of it has been luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfThat's crazy to say. Assuming you have an advantage on NFL then OFC you can. Why would you ever waste your time on something you're -EV on(?) when you can get unlimited action in on the NFL?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Western Michigan vs Ball State - Under 45 -110
Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan - Under 50.5 -110
Mississippi vs LSU - Over 67 -110
Troy +102 at Georgia State
One more:
Northern Illinois +12.5 -110 at Toledo
Whoops.
I switched two of the numbers when posting it up here
The E Michigan one was 45 (just lost)
The Ball State was 50.5
Well it didn't matter that I switched the totals when I manually copied my bets over to post here.
Either way, both Michigan unders lost.
This was looking like a potential 0-5 day at one point, as both unders looked bad (and did lose), and Northern Illinois blew an easy touchdown by fumbling at the 2 at the end of the 1st quarter.
However, Northern Illinois lost by just 2, easily covering. The LSU over was a blowout, scoring 104 points! Troy, after battling in the first half, easily pulled away and won 28-7.
Ended up 3-2, +0.84 units. Still haven't had a really good or really bad week in NCAAF this year (defined as being up or down a lot of units in a single week).
Still a disappointing season thus far, as I'm 14-18, -3.39 units.
Here's a game listed under the "extra" section on many books:
Virginia -8 -110 vs William and Mary
Starting shortly
Bowling Green +280 at Miami Ohio
Bowling Green is awful and is down 14-0 at the half. Probably not winning that. Won Virginia earlier.
Here's a rubber pick for the day:
Arizona State +140 vs Colorado
AZ State started off well, faded, scored a tying TD with 55 seconds left, and somehow gave up the winning FG in that time. Awful.
Bowling Green got killed.
Virginia covered.
1-2
Now 15-19, -4.48 units
E. Michigan at N. Illinois - Under 43.5
Penn State +165 at Ohio State
UCF +17.5 at Oklahoma
Navy +10 vs Air Force
Purdue +105 at Nebraska
Southern Mississippi +16.5 -110 at Appalachian State
If you're around to fire in the next few mins....
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State - Under 55.5 -110
A little later today...
Boise State +120 at Fresno State
USC +123 vs Washington
1-2 last week, only winning the under (easily)
Today:
Auburn at Arkansas - Under 49.5 -110 (48.5-49 ok)
Air Force -19.5 -110 at Hawaii
Army +130 vs Coastal Carolina
Oregon State -1.5 -110 vs Washington
Maryland vs Michigan - UNDER 49 -110
Indiana at Purdue - Over 55 -110
Pittsburgh +170 at Duke
Oregon -10 -105 at Washington
Oregon/Washington - Under 65.5 -105
Results:
As of 10/7: 15-19, -4.48 units
All spread/totals are -110 unless otherwise listed.
10/21:
E. Michigan at N. Illinois - Under 43.5 - W +0.91
Penn State +165 at Ohio State - L -1.00
UCF +17.5 at Oklahoma - W +0.91
Navy +10 vs Air Force - L -1.00
10/28:
Purdue +105 at Nebraska - L -1.00
Southern Mississippi +16.5 at Appalachian State - W +0.91
11/4:
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State - Under 55.5 - W +0.91
Boise State +120 at Fresno State - L -1.00
USC +123 vs Washington - L -1.00
11/11:
Auburn at Arkansas - Under 49.5 - L -1.00
Air Force -19.5 at Hawaii - L -1.00
11/18:
Army +130 vs Coastal Carolina - W +1.30
Oregon State -1.5 vs Washington - L -1.00
Maryland vs Michigan - UNDER 49 - L -1.00
11/25:
Indiana at Purdue - Over 55 - W +0.91
Pittsburgh +170 at Duke - L -1.00
12/1:
Oregon -10 -105 at Washington - L -1.00
Oregon/Washington - Under 65.5 -105 - L -1.00
Total 10/21 - 12/1: 6-12, -6.15 units
Grand total: 21-31, -10.63 units
Disasterous season. I might not try again next year with NCAAF.