Game 1
Detroit +175 at Kansas City
Kelce out.
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Game 1
Detroit +175 at Kansas City
Kelce out.
Wasn't easy, and it took a bad coaching decision to kick a FG up three late, when 4th and 2, but I squeaked by 21-20, and I'm now 1-0, +1.75 units after game 1.
So far, so good.
Cleveland +2 -110 vs Cincinnati
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis - Over 46 -110
Yup. Both win.
3-0, +3.57 units
MNF
Buffalo at NY Jets - Under 45.5 -110
Yup. Ending had way more scoring than I liked (it was 13-3 in mid-4th), but I still easily pulled it out with a 22-16 score in OT.
That's a 4-0 start for me, up +4.49 units.
That also makes me 58-32-2, +30.38 units in my 92 picks since the beginning of the 2022-23 season. My my my.
Just one pick during this Sunday where no line looks particularly soft, and I have no strong lean. Even this pick was one I almost didn't make.
San Francisco at LA Rams - Over 45.5 -110
Okay, I lied.
One more pick.
Kansas City at Jacksonville - Under 50.5 -110
Another 2-0
Overall: 6-0, +6.31 units
I've been looking at NE all week, but couldn't quite bring myself to fire on it.
I've decided it's time, and I'm staking my 100.0% NFL record on it.
New England +105 vs Miami (+1.5 -110 ok)
NY Giants vs San Francisco - Under 43.5 -110 (43 ok)
WR Aiyuk out
You posted this an hour before game time, is that normally the situation?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Well, it was ugly, but I barely won.
Giants had the ball and looked like they'd score in the 4th, with 42 points on the board. They threw an INT, and then the Niners couldn't score again, Giants flubbed it, and by the time they punted, Niners just ran it down with a few small rushes.
Honestly deserved to lose this one, but I'll take the very close W.
Now up to 7-1, +6.22 units
Lost New England on Sunday for my only loss.
It was verified 2 hours beforeQuote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfYou posted this an hour before game time, is that normally the situation?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
it says 4:14 game starts at 5:15 so I assumed 1 hour, but let's not argue about an hour. My question is... when do you normally post your picks? I can't be checking this thread all day long. What kinda crappy tout service are you running here? ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffIt was verified 2 hours beforeQuote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfYou posted this an hour before game time, is that normally the situation?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
What's your unit size? Betting unit that is.
My unit size is 1 on every single game
Picks are usually posted by Sunday morning at a time like this. On Monday/Thursday it's usually a few hours before game time.
Atlanta +145 at Detroit
Las Vegas -3 +100 vs Pittsburgh
Thanks for the timeline.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
My question was not how many units you bet, but how much money per game are you betting?
$550, $1,100, $3,300, $5,500, 10k?
Just curious since I might be willing to take some of your action on certain games or we can save the vig if I need a different side.
You can ask me that privately.
Adding Carolina +180 at Seattle
I'm seeing +188-+190Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Presently 7-4, +3.22 units after the ugly 0-3 last week.
FOLKS
Everyone is ignoring the dual 0-3 shitshow game known as Vikings vs Panthers.
I am here to tell you that Kirk Cousins and the Vikings will finally get their victory today. They may have bricked it in the preseason AND the first three games of the regular season, but they're going to win this one.
I have no opinion on the other dual 0-3 shitshow, known as Bears versus Broncos.
Minnesota -4.5 at Carolina
Okay, I got one more.
Philadelphia vs Washington - Under 43.5 -115
Jets +8 -110 vs Kansas City
Squeaaaaaaaaaaked by with 2 of the 3.
Minnesota was trailing and just looking horrible. Kirk Cousins threw TWO interceptions near the goal line, one which went for a return TD, and the other which went for a return FG. He also fumbled at the goal line.
But somehow Carolina's awfulness allowed Minnesota to escape 21-13 in a comeback victory, though they had to fade the final play where Carolina could have easily tied it.
I lost the Philly under.
Then later, the Jets fell behind 17-0, came back to make it 20-20, but again it came down to one of the final plays of the game. Chiefs had it 3rd and 8 on the 11 yard line, up 23-20. Mahomes got away and seemed sure to score a rushing TD with less than 2 minutes left, but instead he went down on purpose at the 2 yard line. Why? Because that gave KC a first down, and they were able to just knee it the rest of the way.
Ugly 2-1 day, but I'll take it.
Now 9-5, +4.04 units
I was a little surprised you took the Eagles/Wash under. I bleed Eagles green and the Eagles defense just in not very good. The only thing stopping them from being among the league worst is that the defensive line which is a strength creates a fumble or two among their sakes and there is often an interception also because of the defensive line pressure. So a couple turn overs keeps opponent's numbers down and even at that they give up 24 points a games. And the Eagles offense scores 30 a game and they aren't even playing as good as they can. So unless the O/U gets up over 50, I am taking the over.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I don't often pick against you, but with me making my picks on Friday night for the 5% vig, it is happening more and more this year. If you pick a team I have already picked, I will double up. But if you pick the opposite of what I have already bet, I just let my bet ride. That is the best I can do, taking advantage of your plays. Here is to hoping you keep it going. :)
I predicted coming into this season that Minnesota would be a failteam, and indeed they are.
They finally got a victory last week after struggling through a game with terrible Carolina.
Somehow I'm dumb enough to pick them for a third time this year, and actually the moneyline against the mighty Chiefs.
Screw Taylor Swift.
For the moment, that's my only pick today.
Minnesota +160 vs Kansas City (+3 ok)
Lost that Minnesota above... so why not go against the Chiefs again?
Anyway, I hate firing on bad teams, but I think this one will cover tonight.
Denver +10.5 -105 vs Kansas City
Kelce WILL play, in all likelihood, with a heavily taped sprained ankle. This could easily be a liability for KC.
Tampa vs Detroit - Under 43.5 -110
Denver -1 -110 vs Green Bay
Green Bay +1 vs Minnesota
Houston vs Carolina - Over 43 -110
Carolina +110 vs Indianapolis
Buffalo at Cincinnati - Over 50.5 -110
Ouch... 0-2 above
Today:
Carolina +156 at Chicago
Arizona vs Atlanta - Over 43.5 -110
Won that over.
Tonight:
There has long been a discussion this season that the Bengals are overrated, even with Burrow recovering from his earlier calf injury.
Now there's talk that they are covering up something being wrong with his right hand: https://nypost.com/2023/11/16/sports...thing-on-hand/
Both the Bengals and Ravens are coming off disappointing losses as favorites on Sunday, with the Texans beating the Bengals (and eliminating us from the Circa Survivor contest), and the Browns slipping by the Ravens. Both teams were at home, and both games ended up close.
Bad right hand or not, I think this one goes to Baltimore.
Baltimore -3.5 -110 vs Cincinnati
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
According to lip readers, Burrow said "I felt a pop." Referring to his injury hopefully.
I only had a prop bet on the game, but got lucky. Needed Mark Andrews under 57.5, and fortunately the bulk of the receiving yards went to Odell Beckham. Andrews finished with only 23.
This is what happens when you don't watch the games. I won my bet because Andrews was knocked out with a severe lower leg injury on a rough hit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Perignom
I didn't have anything to do with it.
Burrow is also out for the season, due to a "completely new injury."
Rams -1.5 -112 vs Seattle
Denver -2.5 -110 vs Minnesota
*** I have been very bad at Minnesota games this year
Lost involving Minnesota again.
Thanksgiving:
Detroit -8 -110 vs Green Bay
Lost Detroit outright.
Today:
Tampa at Indianapolis - Over 45 -115
Kansas City at Las Vegas - Under 43.5 -110
LA Rams -2.5 -120 at Arizona
Houston +105 vs Jacksonville
If I had no rooting interest (which I do) and was willing to bet against my favorite team (which I am not), The Eagles look prime for a loss to me, coming off a win at KC on Monday night (Monday night jinx) and looking ahead to a big game with the 49ers next week.
If not a loss (Buffalo @ +135) at least Buffalo +3, or preferably 3.5 if you can get it. But I am a wuss and will just watch and root. :rolleyes:
What a GREAT game. And not just because the Eagles pulled out another game they probably didn't deserve. Just a fun game to watch in the cold and rain in late November, they way football is supposed to be late in the year in the Northeast. Throw in a 59 yard field goal in the rain to send the game to OT.
And after it all, a lot of bettors getting a push. :D
Split my 4, winning Tampa over and Rams, losing other two.
Tonight:
Chicago at Minnesota - Under 43.5
Jets +115 vs Atlanta
New England vs Chargers - Under 39
Tampa vs Carolina - Under 37
Also this:
Pittsburgh vs Arizona - Over 41
Went 1-3 last week, though the win (NE under) was by a huge margin.
Anyway I can't decide on any sides or ML picks now, so I'll just hit an under for right now, even though i hate undering these low totals.
Jets vs Houston - Under 33 -110
Dallas -3.5 +100 vs Philly
My under above lost after a 0 point 1H!!
And the last FG was totally pointless with 1m left.
NY Giants +203 vs Green Bay
Detroit -5 vs Denver
Should've fired an hour ago when I wanted to at -4.5, but got busy with something else.
As of 10/1: 9-5, +4.04 units
All spread/totals -110 unless otherwise stated
10/8: Minnesota +160 vs Kansas City - L -1.00
10/12: Denver +10.5 -105 vs Kansas City - L -1.00
10/15: Tampa vs Detroit - Under 43.5 - W +0.91
10/22: Denver -1 vs Green Bay - W +0.91
10/29:
Green Bay +1 vs Minnesota - L -1.00
Houston vs Carolina - Over 43 - L -1.00
11/5:
Carolina +110 vs Indianapolis - L -1.00
Buffalo at Cincinnati - Over 50.5 -110 - L -1.00
11/9: Carolina +156 at Chicago - L -1.00
11/12: Arizona vs Atlanta - Over 43.5 - W +0.91
11/16: Baltimore -3.5 vs Cincinnati - W +0.91
11/19:
Rams -1.5 -112 vs Seattle - L -1.00
Denver -2.5 -110 vs Minnesota - L -1.00
11/23: Detroit -8 vs Green Bay - L -1.00
11/26:
Tampa at Indianapolis - Over 45 -115 - W +0.87
Kansas City at Las Vegas - Under 43.5 - L -1.00
LA Rams -2.5 -120 at Arizona - W +0.83
Houston +105 vs Jacksonville - L -1.00
11/27: Chicago at Minnesota - Under 43.5 - W +0.91
12/3:
Jets +115 vs Atlanta - L -1.00
New England vs Chargers - Under 39 - W +0.91
Tampa vs Carolina - Under 37 - L -1.00
Pittsburgh vs Arizona - Over 41 - L -1.00
12/10:
Jets vs Houston - Under 33 - L -1.00
Dallas -3.5 +100 vs Philly - W +1.00
12/11: NY Giants +203 vs Green Bay - W +2.03
12/16: Detroit -5 vs Denver - W +0.91
10/8-12/16: 11-16, -4.90 units
Grand total: 20-21, -0.86 units
Definitely not like last year. Got off to a great start, but have gone 13-20 since then, including an 8-week stretch of 6-13.
Did get somewhat unlucky, losing a bunch by 0.5 points.
Jacksonville vs Baltimore - Under 40.5 -107
Chicago +130 at Cleveland
Carolina +130 vs Atlanta
Jacksonville vs Baltimore - Under 40.5 -107 - W +0.93
Chicago +130 at Cleveland - L -1.00
Carolina +130 vs Atlanta - W +1.30
Now 22-22, +0.37 units on the year
Minnesota +130 at Detroit
Miami vs Dallas - Under 48.5
Kansas City vs Raiders - Under 40.5
Minnesota +130 at Detroit - L -1.00
Miami vs Dallas - Under 48.5 - W +0.91
Kansas City vs Raiders - Under 40.5 - W +0.91
Total: 2-1, +0.82
Grand total: 24-23, +1.19 units
No Mahomes or Kelce. Rest day for KC.
Chargers -3.5 +100 vs KC (-3 -125 ok)
Buffalo at Miami - Under 48
Won the under above, lost the Chargers.
Now 25-24, +1.10 units
Buffalo/KC - Under 45.5
Lost above.
Now 25-25, +0.10 units
Very forgettable season in NFL for me.
Super Bowl:
Mahomes MVP +150
Kansas City +115