GAMBLER: SECRETS OF A LIFE AT RISK

Most of the book is about Walter's personal life. The Chapters that apply to sports betting are Master Class, Advanced Master Class, and War Stories. Those chapters cover only 47 pages.

I'm not a professional sports bettor so I'm not going to weigh in on the veracity of his system. I'm just commenting on what his methodology looks like to me.

And it looks to me that his system is 100% mathematical. Not half mathematical, not three quarters mathematical, not 95% mathematical....but 100% mathematical.

He starts out by saying everything comes down to value.

He bets according to power ratings. There are no hunches, opinions, gut feelings, none of that hoopla. His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974.

His power ratings equate to the point spread. Best team in the league is around +10 and the worst team is about -10. A team that has a power rating of +7.5 is a 3.5 point favorite over a team with a +4.0 power rating. He compares his lines to the bookie lines and bets accordingly.

The raw power ratings are computer generated. Then adjustments are made for game factors. He has a mathematical value for every situation, weather condition and emotional factor.

For instance a warm team playing in 30 degree weather is docked .5 points from their power rating. If it's 20 degrees then a full point is deducted.

Quarterbacks are rated from 6 to 9.5. Mahomes is a 9.5 quarterback.

He says that injuries are the 2nd biggest factor after the raw power ratings. Every player in the league has a rating. Non QB players have a rating from 0.00 points to 3 points. If a player has a 2.0 power rating then gets injured then 2 points are deducted from the teams power rating. Then the power rating of the player that replaces him is added to the rating.

Everything is purely mathematical with him, except, he can't put a number on snow or heavy wind.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Most of the book is about Walter's personal life. The Chapters that apply to sports betting are Master Class, Advanced Master Class, and War Stories. Those chapters cover only 47 pages.

I'm not a professional sports bettor so I'm not going to weigh in on the veracity of his system. I'm just commenting on what his methodology looks like to me.

And it looks to me that his system is 100% mathematical. Not half mathematical, not three quarters mathematical, not 95% mathematical....but 100% mathematical.

He starts out by saying everything comes down to value.

He bets according to power ratings. There are no hunches, opinions, gut feelings, none of that hoopla. His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974.

His power ratings equate to the point spread. Best team in the league is around +10 and the worst team is about -10. A team that has a power rating of +7.5 is a 3.5 point favorite over a team with a +4.0 power rating. He compares his lines to the bookie lines and bets accordingly.

The raw power ratings are computer generated. Then adjustments are made for game factors. He has a mathematical value for every situation, weather condition and emotional factor.

For instance a warm team playing in 30 degree weather is docked .5 points from their power rating. If it's 20 degrees then a full point is deducted.

Quarterbacks are rated from 6 to 9.5. Mahomes is a 9.5 quarterback.

He says that injuries are the 2nd biggest factor after the raw power ratings. Every player in the league has a rating. Non QB players have a rating from 0.00 points to 3 points. If a player has a 2.0 power rating then gets injured then 2 points are deducted from the teams power rating. Then the power rating of the player that replaces him is added to the rating.

Everything is purely mathematical with him, except, he can't put a number on snow or heavy wind.

---

Value and math????? Who'd a thunk it? Did he say anything about touts, contests, and or any other advantage situations?

There are a lot of Billy Walters stories around. Once he got famous he would use his reputation to try to move lines on games he wanted to bet.
He talked to touts, handicappers, and others. He wanted to see if any of them were worth listening to. He would drop them after a few months when he decided they didn't know anything. He would use them to spread rumors about his action.

BW: Who do like this week.
tout: blah, blah, blah
BW: That's interesting I'll look at those. What about xxx-6. I like it. Hear anything about the game?
tout: Yea, yea, I've been looking at that game.
BW: I'm hearing there is a lot of money coming in on it. Bookies getting unbalanced and nervous about the line. I think the line will move before
game time. I'm spreading some small bets around. I'd like to get some down before the line moves. Good luck on your bets.

Tout calls everybody he knows.

tout: Just talked to BW. He likes to go over his bets with me sometimes. He likes xxx-6 and thinks the line will move. He is betting it.

Tout buddies call everybody they know about inside info on who BW is betting.

BW calls his runner with a big mouth. Tells runner to get $5000 on xxx-6. Says he trying to quietly build a position because the line will move.

Runner calls everybody he knows.

Next day game opens at xxx-6.5. Touts call everybody and say I told you yesterday to get the -6 like I did.

Line closes at xxx-7.5 and BW loads up on the underdog at +7.5.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cyberbabble

There are a lot of Billy Walters stories around. Once he got famous he would use his reputation to try to move lines on games he wanted to bet.
He talked to touts, handicappers, and others. He wanted to see if any of them were worth listening to. He would drop them after a few months when he decided they didn't know anything. He would use them to spread rumors about his action.

BW: Who do like this week.
tout: blah, blah, blah
BW: That's interesting I'll look at those. What about xxx-6. I like it. Hear anything about the game?
tout: Yea, yea, I've been looking at that game.
BW: I'm hearing there is a lot of money coming in on it. Bookies getting unbalanced and nervous about the line. I think the line will move before
game time. I'm spreading some small bets around. I'd like to get some down before the line moves. Good luck on your bets.

Tout calls everybody he knows.

tout: Just talked to BW. He likes to go over his bets with me sometimes. He likes xxx-6 and thinks the line will move. He is betting it.

Tout buddies call everybody they know about inside info on who BW is betting.

BW calls his runner with a big mouth. Tells runner to get $5000 on xxx-6. Says he trying to quietly build a position because the line will move.

Runner calls everybody he knows.

Next day game opens at xxx-6.5. Touts call everybody and say I told you yesterday to get the -6 like I did.

Line closes at xxx-7.5 and BW loads up on the underdog at +7.5.

---

How long did Red work for him?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cyberbabble

There are a lot of Billy Walters stories around. Once he got famous he would use his reputation to try to move lines on games he wanted to bet.
He talked to touts, handicappers, and others. He wanted to see if any of them were worth listening to. He would drop them after a few months when he decided they didn't know anything. He would use them to spread rumors about his action.

BW: Who do like this week.
tout: blah, blah, blah
BW: That's interesting I'll look at those. What about xxx-6. I like it. Hear anything about the game?
tout: Yea, yea, I've been looking at that game.
BW: I'm hearing there is a lot of money coming in on it. Bookies getting unbalanced and nervous about the line. I think the line will move before
game time. I'm spreading some small bets around. I'd like to get some down before the line moves. Good luck on your bets.

Tout calls everybody he knows.

tout: Just talked to BW. He likes to go over his bets with me sometimes. He likes xxx-6 and thinks the line will move. He is betting it.

Tout buddies call everybody they know about inside info on who BW is betting.

BW calls his runner with a big mouth. Tells runner to get $5000 on xxx-6. Says he trying to quietly build a position because the line will move.

Runner calls everybody he knows.

Next day game opens at xxx-6.5. Touts call everybody and say I told you yesterday to get the -6 like I did.

Line closes at xxx-7.5 and BW loads up on the underdog at +7.5.

---

How long did Red work for him?

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According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

---

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets to get his foot in the door.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

---

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets to get his foot in the door.

---

I wish. I was actually shining shoes. Shining shoes is a step down from scrubbing toilets because you can't wear gloves while shining shoes and handling other people's feet. The only other guy I knew who had the same status as me was named Al. Said he had moved to LV from Chicago.

It turns out, I was the top college football profit handicapper in The McCusker Report three of the final five years it published. Not nearly good enough for latrine duty. Now had I finished tops in profit FOUR out of five, maybe I would have gotten the toilet gig. Had I managed a five-year sweep of the top college football profit rankings, then it's possible that I would have qualified for chauffeur, but the odds against that were very long.

I love shining shoes. Reminds me of getting ready for early Sunday church service under the tutelage of my dad. I shined my shoes Saturday so they'd be ready.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

---

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets to get his foot in the door.

---

I wish. I was actually shining shoes. Shining shoes is a step down from scrubbing toilets because you can't wear gloves while shining shoes and handling other people's feet. The only other guy I knew who had the same status as me was named Al. Said he had moved to LV from Chicago.

It turns out, I was the top college football profit handicapper in The McCusker Report three of the final five years it published. Not nearly good enough for latrine duty. Now had I finished tops in profit FOUR out of five, maybe I would have gotten the toilet gig. Had I managed a five-year sweep of the top college football profit rankings, then it's possible that I would have qualified for chauffeur, but the odds against that were very long.

I love shining shoes. Reminds me of getting ready for early Sunday church service under the tutelage of my dad. I shined my shoes Saturday so they'd be ready.

---

lol. Good reply Redietz. Glad to see you not insult and able to make fun of yourself.

And I'm glad to see you answer questions somewhat directly.

Anyway, I'm sure with those nice monk shoes shining is a thing.

GL

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

---

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets to get his foot in the door.

---

I wish. I was actually shining shoes. Shining shoes is a step down from scrubbing toilets because you can't wear gloves while shining shoes and handling other people's feet. The only other guy I knew who had the same status as me was named Al. Said he had moved to LV from Chicago.

It turns out, I was the top college football profit handicapper in The McCusker Report three of the final five years it published. Not nearly good enough for latrine duty. Now had I finished tops in profit FOUR out of five, maybe I would have gotten the toilet gig. Had I managed a five-year sweep of the top college football profit rankings, then it's possible that I would have qualified for chauffeur, but the odds against that were very long.

I love shining shoes. Reminds me of getting ready for early Sunday church service under the tutelage of my dad. I shined my shoes Saturday so they'd be ready.

---

FYI. I'm certain Rob Singer was a Top writer for Gaming Today for many years(that was a huge gambling magazine at one time). He has a book or two published. He has been interviewed and written about by known award-winning, presidential meeting journalists and many more accolades under his belt.

The only thing I can find on The McCusker Report is something about Alzheimer's. Good length we can follow I'm sure you probably posted them before but it's been a while.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

---

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets to get his foot in the door.

---

It turns out, I was the top college football profit handicapper in The McCusker Report three of the final five years it published.

---

You still haven't said what your job description with Walter's was.

My main title was "Shoeshine Boy." Some people thought that was racist, but I said it was okay because I wore blackface on slow Wednesdays to boost my tips.

Sports bettor, Bob Dietz, has asserted that Walter's chapters on strategy have a faulty context. That things were left out. And that Walter's is actually wrong about some things. And per the usual, Dietz didn't explain what was wrong or left out.

So the question is....Is Bob Dietz right, or Billy Walters right? In the book Walters says there is more than one way to handicap. I don't know that redietz is that flexible.

One thing we know for sure redietz has stated in no uncertain terms that football games cannot be fully handicapped by mathematical models. Walters fully handicaps with mathematical models.

Redietz says that EV can't be calculated. Walters measures EV.

That which way to bet against the spread is a matter of opinion. Walter's does not use opinions, just math.

I think what they have is a contrast in styles. By criticizing Walters like he is, Dietz is asserting himself to be a better handicapper than Walters. Is the mouse flipping off the elephant?

I've done a lot of googling. I can't find another negative critique of Walter's strategy. And I can't find anything about a book club meeting where they debunk Walter's strategy. Redietz has led us to believe the press was there but I've googled to hell and back and can't find a single story. And why is Deitz keeping the name of the co-host under wraps if it was a public meeting?

This controversy deserves attention by the real sports betting press. A lot of people need to weigh in. Some of these people doing podcasts need to be informed.

Be more than glad to pay for a podcast featuring the inestimable mickey crimm asking these same brilliant questions. Let me know when you're heading to Las Vegas. Or Tennessee for that matter. I'll pick up the tab to help you look smart.

And for the record, at no point in the book does Walters write "Expected value" or use the acronym "EV." You can use whatever excuse you want about his use of the word value (as in "greatest relative value," for example), but to say that Walters ever uses the phrase "Expected value" or "EV" in the book is flat-out incorrect.

And honestly, Walters does not present himself as a particularly wonderful handicapper in the book. He's very careful about that.

In fact, even the blurbs to sell the book are careful, as in Michael Roxborough's "Is he the greatest handicapper of all time? Maybe. Is he the greatest bettor of all time? Unquestionably."

There are few references in the book to Walters' himself actually handicapping anything.

You should have made the trip for the book club meeting. Anyone interested in my formal opening remarks?

Did you get a good comp from the Pizza Palace or whatever it was? When a celebrity mentions a business on social media, the business usually repays the recommendation with some free merchandise.

A medium, 3 meat pizza seems like it would be a great comp.

Someone needs to contact ditz and stake him for $500 so he has something to do outside of making up stories about some "press" having interest in him.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Be more than glad to pay for a podcast featuring the inestimable mickey crimm asking these same brilliant questions. Let me know when you're heading to Las Vegas. Or Tennessee for that matter. I'll pick up the tab to help you look smart.

And for the record, at no point in the book does Walters write "Expected value" or use the acronym "EV." You can use whatever excuse you want about his use of the word value (as in "greatest relative value," for example), but to say that Walters ever uses the phrase "Expected value" or "EV" in the book is flat-out incorrect.

And honestly, Walters does not present himself as a particularly wonderful handicapper in the book. He's very careful about that.

In fact, even the blurbs to sell the book are careful, as in Michael Roxborough's "Is he the greatest handicapper of all time? Maybe. Is he the greatest bettor of all time? Unquestionably."

There are few references in the book to Walters' himself actually handicapping anything.

You should have made the trip for the book club meeting. Anyone interested in my formal opening remarks?

---

No, no, Dietz. I've said over and over again I'm not a professional handicapper. The questions you need to answer should come from real professional sports bettors. Not only should these experts be the ones asking the questions they should also be giving their takes on Walter's strategies.

You need to quit trying to make this about me. It's about your allegations. Including your allegation that Walters has OCD.

Dietz, you also need to move into the 21st century. People don't have to travel thousands of miles to do meetings and interviews. Look at the news media. They are doing teleconferences all day long on TV. For my GWAE interviews we used Skype. So please knock of the "travel a thousand miles if you want your questions answered" bullshit.

As you know an exact EV number can't be placed on a sports bet. But that doesn't mean one can't approximate the EV. Walters graded his plays by assigning stars to them, as in 1 star, 2 star, 3 star, etc. The more stars involved the more money bet. In other words, the more EV the more you bet.

I suggested to Dan Druff that he discuss your allegations on his radio show.

And that reminds me. Druff has taken his radio show to youtube. Besides listening live you can listen to the archived shows. He has a very good format. There is a table contents so you can skip to the topics that you are interested in.

Druff is trying to acquire subscriptions so here is the link to subscribe:

https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...er+fraud+alert

"Approximate EV?" But no way to ascertain precision in a game where precision is everything and measured in tenths of percentage points..

There's a line for the ages. So "my best guess" becomes "approximate EV?"

I have always said I have no issues with "my best guess." In fact, I recommended it multiple times.

There are many reasons people prefer the gravitas and pretend precision of the phrase "EV."

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Be more than glad to pay for a podcast featuring the inestimable mickey crimm asking these same brilliant questions. Let me know when you're heading to Las Vegas. Or Tennessee for that matter. I'll pick up the tab to help you look smart.

And for the record, at no point in the book does Walters write "Expected value" or use the acronym "EV." You can use whatever excuse you want about his use of the word value (as in "greatest relative value," for example), but to say that Walters ever uses the phrase "Expected value" or "EV" in the book is flat-out incorrect.

And honestly, Walters does not present himself as a particularly wonderful handicapper in the book. He's very careful about that.

In fact, even the blurbs to sell the book are careful, as in Michael Roxborough's "Is he the greatest handicapper of all time? Maybe. Is he the greatest bettor of all time? Unquestionably."

There are few references in the book to Walters' himself actually handicapping anything.

You should have made the trip for the book club meeting. Anyone interested in my formal opening remarks?

---

Let me know when Circa puts you on their Wall of Fame.
Walters has a plaque.
Jackie has one too!
I was a bit offended that they didn't give me one.
They only have about 6 plaques so far but have room for like 600.
Not sure what their plan is there.
Kind of Odd.
I guess they competing with the California Craps Wall of Fame and the WSOP.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Most of the book is about Walter's personal life. The Chapters that apply to sports betting are Master Class, Advanced Master Class, and War Stories. Those chapters cover only 47 pages.

I'm not a professional sports bettor so I'm not going to weigh in on the veracity of his system. I'm just commenting on what his methodology looks like to me.

And it looks to me that his system is 100% mathematical. Not half mathematical, not three quarters mathematical, not 95% mathematical....but 100% mathematical.

He starts out by saying everything comes down to value.

He bets according to power ratings. There are no hunches, opinions, gut feelings, none of that hoopla. His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974.

His power ratings equate to the point spread. Best team in the league is around +10 and the worst team is about -10. A team that has a power rating of +7.5 is a 3.5 point favorite over a team with a +4.0 power rating. He compares his lines to the bookie lines and bets accordingly.

The raw power ratings are computer generated. Then adjustments are made for game factors. He has a mathematical value for every situation, weather condition and emotional factor.

For instance a warm team playing in 30 degree weather is docked .5 points from their power rating. If it's 20 degrees then a full point is deducted.

Quarterbacks are rated from 6 to 9.5. Mahomes is a 9.5 quarterback.

He says that injuries are the 2nd biggest factor after the raw power ratings. Every player in the league has a rating. Non QB players have a rating from 0.00 points to 3 points. If a player has a 2.0 power rating then gets injured then 2 points are deducted from the teams power rating. Then the power rating of the player that replaces him is added to the rating.

Everything is purely mathematical with him, except, he can't put a number on snow or heavy wind.

---

Shut Up Faggot.
Get back to sucking cock at the next rest stop.

"His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974."

He does what I do, he gathers information and makes educated guesses. Except my information only goes back a few spins but it's the same thing. He's using past outcomes to make guesses about future outcomes. Works if you know how to do it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Most of the book is about Walter's personal life. The Chapters that apply to sports betting are Master Class, Advanced Master Class, and War Stories. Those chapters cover only 47 pages.

I'm not a professional sports bettor so I'm not going to weigh in on the veracity of his system. I'm just commenting on what his methodology looks like to me.

And it looks to me that his system is 100% mathematical. Not half mathematical, not three quarters mathematical, not 95% mathematical....but 100% mathematical.

He starts out by saying everything comes down to value.

He bets according to power ratings. There are no hunches, opinions, gut feelings, none of that hoopla. His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974.

His power ratings equate to the point spread. Best team in the league is around +10 and the worst team is about -10. A team that has a power rating of +7.5 is a 3.5 point favorite over a team with a +4.0 power rating. He compares his lines to the bookie lines and bets accordingly.

The raw power ratings are computer generated. Then adjustments are made for game factors. He has a mathematical value for every situation, weather condition and emotional factor.

For instance a warm team playing in 30 degree weather is docked .5 points from their power rating. If it's 20 degrees then a full point is deducted.

Quarterbacks are rated from 6 to 9.5. Mahomes is a 9.5 quarterback.

He says that injuries are the 2nd biggest factor after the raw power ratings. Every player in the league has a rating. Non QB players have a rating from 0.00 points to 3 points. If a player has a 2.0 power rating then gets injured then 2 points are deducted from the teams power rating. Then the power rating of the player that replaces him is added to the rating.

Everything is purely mathematical with him, except, he can't put a number on snow or heavy wind.

---

Shut Up Faggot.
Get back to sucking cock at the next rest stop.

---

He's having lunch with Mommy today, can you be any more stereotypical Queen than that. LOL

LOL

You got the wrong guy in the crosshairs, Spike: Are you calling MC a faggot?

Sure looks that way...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Are you calling MC a faggot?

Sure looks that way...

---

It would look that way if MC announced that he was having lunch with his mother.

Did he?

Nobody said anything about having lunch with their mother in this thread; please, pay closer attention next time.

I know, you just HAVE to jump in and twist what everybody says, but when you both fuck up like this you really look like a couple of braying jackasses.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Nobody said anything about having lunch with their mother in this thread

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Nobody said that they did.

But it was said in another thread.

Who says Spike can't use information from another thread?...you?

BTW...it was you who jumped in and twisted things.

Eat shit...boyo.

LOL

Gotcha.

You might think you're as slippery as an eel in a bucket of snot, but you left a slime trail.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MisterV

LOL

You got the wrong guy in the crosshairs, Spike: Are you calling MC a faggot?

Sure looks that way...

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In all fairness hobocrimm prefers to be addressed as LadyBoyCrimm or ManServant :D

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

In all fairness hobocrimm prefers to be addressed as LadyBoyCrimm or ManServant :D

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You are such an immature piece of shit trash.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

In all fairness hobocrimm prefers to be addressed as LadyBoyCrimm or ManServant :D

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You are such an immature piece of shit trash.

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Quote it again. Spread the word. :cool:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

In all fairness hobocrimm prefers to be addressed as LadyBoyCrimm or ManServant :D

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You are such an immature piece of shit trash.

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Quote it again. Spread the word. :cool:

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Some day you will say the wrong thing to the wrong person on some forum and they will find you and plant some lead in your skull.

Most of us will smile and say good riddance. A few will say he wasn't like that in real life.

My only home is it doesn't kill you but you live out the rest of your days as a veggie. That is what you deserve you nasty piece of shit low life.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Some day you will say the wrong thing to the wrong person on some forum and they will find you and plant some lead in your skull.

---

My Legal Dictionary refers to this as "Malice aforethought".

So long Maxie, we hardly knew ye.

RIP

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

You are such an immature piece of shit trash.

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Quote it again. Spread the word. :cool:

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Some day you will say the wrong thing to the wrong person on some forum and they will find you and plant some lead in your skull.

Most of us will smile and say good riddance. A few will say he wasn't like that in real life.

My only home is it doesn't kill you but you live out the rest of your days as a veggie. That is what you deserve you nasty piece of shit low life.

---

Once again FraudJ reveals his true self. A mentally deranged individual that can't help but lash out when cornered and exposed for what he really is.

Maybe you'll be in a better mental state once they open the tunnels back up under the Strip and you have a few bucks in your pocket from blowing some eurofags during Formula One.....RIP

For those that don't know, last year someone damaged MaxPens car. Slashed some tires or something, I forget. He thought it was seedvalue or another person from a forum or discord or real life that he had screwed. So Maxpen ran and hid from this forum for 6 months or more. He then decided the incident wasn't related to his being a piece of shit and treating people like shit, so he returned doing the same shit.

Don't take my words as a threat. I know who he is (someone PMed me some info not too long ago). Luckily for MaxPen, I don't take things off forum. But he will fuck with the wrong person at some point. And payback will be a bitch.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Some day you will say the wrong thing to the wrong person on some forum and they will find you and plant some lead in your skull.

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My Legal Dictionary refers to this as "Malice aforethought".

Maxie, we hardly knew ye.

RIP

---

Par for the course. How many people has this homo fraud threatened to shoot over the years?

That's how you know you've really gotten to the truth with this fraud:D

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Let me know when Circa puts you on their Wall of Fame.
Walters has a plaque.
Jackie has one too!
I was a bit offended that they didn't give me one.
They only have about 6 plaques so far but have room for like 600.
Not sure what their plan is there.
Kind of Odd.
I guess they competing with the California Craps Wall of Fame and the WSOP.

---

Your plaque is in the men's room, monette. For the millions of cocks you've sucked in it. Monet's Circa Millions.

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Quote it again. Spread the word. :cool:

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Spread the word about Maxie spreading his cheeks? Maxie Stepandfetchit and monet are back fucking again. Maxie loves it up the ass and monet loves to get shit on his dick.

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Originally Posted by Spike

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Most of the book is about Walter's personal life. The Chapters that apply to sports betting are Master Class, Advanced Master Class, and War Stories. Those chapters cover only 47 pages.

I'm not a professional sports bettor so I'm not going to weigh in on the veracity of his system. I'm just commenting on what his methodology looks like to me.

And it looks to me that his system is 100% mathematical. Not half mathematical, not three quarters mathematical, not 95% mathematical....but 100% mathematical.

He starts out by saying everything comes down to value.

He bets according to power ratings. There are no hunches, opinions, gut feelings, none of that hoopla. His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974.

His power ratings equate to the point spread. Best team in the league is around +10 and the worst team is about -10. A team that has a power rating of +7.5 is a 3.5 point favorite over a team with a +4.0 power rating. He compares his lines to the bookie lines and bets accordingly.

The raw power ratings are computer generated. Then adjustments are made for game factors. He has a mathematical value for every situation, weather condition and emotional factor.

For instance a warm team playing in 30 degree weather is docked .5 points from their power rating. If it's 20 degrees then a full point is deducted.

Quarterbacks are rated from 6 to 9.5. Mahomes is a 9.5 quarterback.

He says that injuries are the 2nd biggest factor after the raw power ratings. Every player in the league has a rating. Non QB players have a rating from 0.00 points to 3 points. If a player has a 2.0 power rating then gets injured then 2 points are deducted from the teams power rating. Then the power rating of the player that replaces him is added to the rating.

Everything is purely mathematical with him, except, he can't put a number on snow or heavy wind.

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Shut Up Faggot.
Get back to sucking cock at the next rest stop.

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He's having lunch with Mommy today, can you be any more stereotypical Queen than that. LOL

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Monet's been sucking your dick and fucking you up the ass. It don't get anymore queen than that

You're in luck, ditz. The morons jumped in and turned this thread into a troll fest.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Be more than glad to pay for a podcast featuring the inestimable mickey crimm asking these same brilliant questions. Let me know when you're heading to Las Vegas. Or Tennessee for that matter. I'll pick up the tab to help you look smart.

And for the record, at no point in the book does Walters write "Expected value" or use the acronym "EV." You can use whatever excuse you want about his use of the word value (as in "greatest relative value," for example), but to say that Walters ever uses the phrase "Expected value" or "EV" in the book is flat-out incorrect.

And honestly, Walters does not present himself as a particularly wonderful handicapper in the book. He's very careful about that.

In fact, even the blurbs to sell the book are careful, as in Michael Roxborough's "Is he the greatest handicapper of all time? Maybe. Is he the greatest bettor of all time? Unquestionably."

There are few references in the book to Walters' himself actually handicapping anything.

You should have made the trip for the book club meeting. Anyone interested in my formal opening remarks?

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Fezzik uses "EV" all the time as do all other sports bettors, except you. But prey tell, massa ditz, what do you think is the difference between "value" and "expected value?"

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Originally Posted by redietz

Be more than glad to pay for a podcast featuring the inestimable mickey crimm asking these same brilliant questions. Let me know when you're heading to Las Vegas. Or Tennessee for that matter. I'll pick up the tab to help you look smart.

And for the record, at no point in the book does Walters write "Expected value" or use the acronym "EV." You can use whatever excuse you want about his use of the word value (as in "greatest relative value," for example), but to say that Walters ever uses the phrase "Expected value" or "EV" in the book is flat-out incorrect.

And honestly, Walters does not present himself as a particularly wonderful handicapper in the book. He's very careful about that.

In fact, even the blurbs to sell the book are careful, as in Michael Roxborough's "Is he the greatest handicapper of all time? Maybe. Is he the greatest bettor of all time? Unquestionably."

There are few references in the book to Walters' himself actually handicapping anything.

You should have made the trip for the book club meeting. Anyone interested in my formal opening remarks?

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I cannot comment on what he has in the book, however it's even worse if you go by some of his interviews, perhaps he doesn't use the word expected, he just uses the terms value and value bet. I understand that the term expected value has been around for a very long time, however, I believe that it wasn't a term commonly used by Advantage players. Just like the term AP/Advantage Player wasn't a term I really ever heard of prior to around 2008(no doubt it appeared somewhere prior to that but it wasn't a common term. Hell, I heard every term but that term(perhaps I'll make a list I think I have before). Pro was the most common among people in the business. Professional gambler was a term commonly used by outsiders, casino employees, or for clarification with everyday people, banking, and taxes. The casinos generally like to use the term team players. For the most part, they assumed everyone was on a few big teams.
The most interesting one I heard was... corporate player. There were people, usually locals who actually believed the casinos would hire people to take down progressives and various good situations and give the money back to the gambling venue.


Anyways back to the expected value thing.

Back then, the simple term value, in lieu of expected value/EV was used more often, but even today, when talking about expected value people often drop the word expected and just use the word value. I.e. your value is XY or Z, and the word expected is implied.

He does talk about percentages, let's say 118% I would assume that there's an implied expected value there of an 18% overlay. Can you explain to me how that's not the expected value? Are you just upset at the word in and of itself? Are you upset that you just can't always quantify it exactly? Are you arguing that there's no such thing as expected value at all ln handicapping or sports betting?

Let's ignore Billy Walters for a moment, I have to assume there are at least five other well-known professional sports bettors who have gained some respect from you and others. Would you care to mention those names for us?

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

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So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets to get his foot in the door.

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If you're going to throw shade you really need to learn how really jam it in there.

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets AND TAPPING HIS FOOT TO GET in the door.
You could have worked KJ's name in there somewhere and got two for one.



You can run this stuff by me and I'll help you out free of charge.

To clarify, I am not claiming any of this about him or KJ, I'm just trying to help you with your future Jabs at anyone.

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Originally Posted by Spike

"His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974."

He does what I do, he gathers information and makes educated guesses. Except my information only goes back a few spins but it's the same thing. He's using past outcomes to make guesses about future outcomes. Works if you know how to do it.

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And they can show the math based on previous statistics and come out with an expected value. Feel free to show us your mathie math math. If you cannot do it yourself, and we know you can't, feel free to give it to Mike and I'm sure he would be glad to run the numbers.

You just made up the 80% hit rate, it's something you pulled out of your ass. I know for a fact you couldn't even figure out what percentage an 80% hit rate would give you.

Actually, I take that back, I think originally you were trying to indicate that you won/win 80% of your sessions. You didn't know how to articulate that to everyone, so to avoid looking like an idiot, you just went with the 80% hit rate. I'm fairly certain that you didn't realize there's a big difference between winning 80% of your sessions VS having an 80% hit rate.

I have it on very good authority, you couldn't even figure out what percentage an 80% hit rate would give you.

That's what's f****** you up really bad with your attempts at trying to convince everybody that you can beat roulette, you are a complete mathtard who barely even knows math, math-related/gambling-related terms. I've seen your attempts at trying to put into your own words what those crazies on gambling forums and people from the past have said. The problem is... some of those guys are actually very good at math and understand how to properly insert the correct gambling/math terms that actually make it seem somewhat believable and confusing enough to possibly sound legit/logical.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

You are such an immature piece of shit trash.

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Quote it again. Spread the word. :cool:

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Some day you will say the wrong thing to the wrong person on some forum and they will find you and plant some lead in your skull. .

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This is when you know you have a VERY serious problem in your relationship with the forums KJ. Take a time out and reflect on what you just said.

Do this... Quote, what you just said and leave your name off it, show it to any normal person, and tell them you have been flaming/trolling someome online and this is what they responded with, and see what they say.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

This is when you know you have a VERY serious problem in your relationship with the forums KJ. Take a time out and reflect on what you just said.

Do this... Quote, what you just said and leave your name off it, show it to any normal person, and tell them you have been flaming/trolling someome online and this is what they responded with, and see what they say.

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I didn't say I was going to do that Axelwolf. I said someday he will say the wrong thing to the wrong person and it won't be all fun and games.

Perhaps you are not a news guy and watch the news and see what is going on. People kill one another for looking the wrong way. Those of us that live in Vegas have been following the story of the rancho High school kid that was beaten to death by a mob of fellow students over some earphones.

You never know what will trigger someone. I have had a guy take shit off forum, so I have some experience with it. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Maxpen ended up saying the wrong thing to the wrong person. And honestly I wouldn't feel the slightest bit bad if it did.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

This is when you know you have a VERY serious problem in your relationship with the forums KJ. Take a time out and reflect on what you just said.

Do this... Quote, what you just said and leave your name off it, show it to any normal person, and tell them you have been flaming/trolling someome online and this is what they responded with, and see what they say.

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I didn't say I was going to do that Axelwolf. I said someday he will say the wrong thing to the wrong person and it won't be all fun and games.

Perhaps you are not a news guy and watch the news and see what is going on. People kill one another for looking the wrong way. Those of us that live in Vegas have been following the story of the rancho High school kid that was beaten to death by a mob of fellow students over some earphones.

You never know what will trigger someone. I have had a guy take shit off forum, so I have some experience with it. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Maxpen ended up saying the wrong thing to the wrong person. And honestly I wouldn't feel the slightest bit bad if it did.

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I didn't say you said that you would do that. I know you didn't say you would do it. You were very careful not to say it. It's the fact that you would say anything related to something that could be construed or thought of in the wrong way of something that serious. The fact that that's even rattling around in your brain is a concern, the fact that you typed it out and put it on a forum is a concern. The fact that you don't see or understand this, is a concern. The fact that you're defending what you said is a concern.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I didn't say you said that you would do that. I know you didn't say you would do it. You were very careful not to say it. It's the fact that you would say anything related to something that could be construed or thought of in the wrong way of something that serious. The fact that that's even rattling around in your brain is a concern, the fact that you typed it out and put it on a forum is a concern. The fact that you don't see or understand this, is a concern. The fact that you're defending what you said is a concern.

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Well I have concerns too Axelwolf. I am concerned about the hate attacks directed at me, more than a dozen times a day. And you know what it is really about because each attack has some homophobic reference. Again, I suggest you watch the news. Gay hate is on the rise, as is all hate. Gay bars and clubs are shot up. I suppose to you straight guys, some gay comment about another straight guy is funny and cute. If you are gay and live that shit daily, not only on forums but in the real world, you take it a little more seriously that that. Didn't you brother teach you that or did you never take the time to listen?

Enough is enough and it was more than enough long ago. A Rob Singer or an Mdawg are just complete low life pieces of shit. I expect a little more from a Maxpen. And frankly, you guys that call him a friend, should have said something a while ago about his comments being unacceptable. Boz did a little bit. From the rest of you....crickets.

It's pretty evident at this point that FraudJ has an assortment of psychiatric disorders. Very common amongst the gay community and tunnel rats. I see now that he is playing the victim card. This of course after fantasizing about someone getting shot in the head. Which he has a history of threatening to shoot or wishing various diseases on people or whatever on just about every forum he's been on from my understanding.

I'm just going to chalk it up to the stress of Formula One relocation. Once he gets that sweet spot under the Strip back so he doesn't have to walk so far to meet his clients he will be in a better mood. :D

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I didn't say you said that you would do that. I know you didn't say you would do it. You were very careful not to say it. It's the fact that you would say anything related to something that could be construed or thought of in the wrong way of something that serious. The fact that that's even rattling around in your brain is a concern, the fact that you typed it out and put it on a forum is a concern. The fact that you don't see or understand this, is a concern. The fact that you're defending what you said is a concern.

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Well I have concerns too Axelwolf. I am concerned about the hate attacks directed at me, more than a dozen times a day. And you know what it is really about because each attack has some homophobic reference. Again, I suggest you watch the news. Gay hate is on the rise, as is all hate. Gay bars and clubs are shot up. I suppose to you straight guys, some gay comment about another straight guy is funny and cute. If you are gay and live that shit daily, not only on forums but in the real world, you take it a little more seriously that that. Didn't you brother teach you that or did you never take the time to listen?

Enough is enough and it was more than enough long ago. A Rob Singer or an Mdawg are just complete low life pieces of shit. I expect a little more from a Maxpen. And frankly, you guys that call him a friend, should have said something a while ago about his comments being unacceptable. Boz did a little bit. From the rest of you....crickets.

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From everything my brother has said, he hates gays and being gay.

Nowadays, I'm hated for being white.

maxpuke is a slug. And a coward. And a gayboy. And a broke ass stepandfetchit bitch.

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

It's pretty evident at this point that FraudJ has an assortment of psychiatric disorders. Very common amongst the gay community and tunnel rats. I see now that he is playing the victim card. This of course after fantasizing about someone getting shot in the head. Which he has a history of threatening to shoot or wishing various diseases on people or whatever on just about every forum he's been on from my understanding.

I'm just going to chalk it up to the stress of Formula One relocation. Once he gets that sweet spot under the Strip back so he doesn't have to walk so far to meet his clients he will be in a better mood. :D

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Tunnel dwellers don't play son

More Billy Walters from 2011 on 60 Minutes.

Who is the interviewer girl?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FAUQ6SFKM

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Originally Posted by cyberbabble

More Billy Walters from 2011 on 60 Minutes.

Who is the interviewer girl?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FAUQ6SFKM

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Lara Logan. She worked for CBS and ABC but was a little to conservative for them. She criticized liberal bias in the news. She later worked for Fox News.

I'm moving this from the sports betting thread to here where it belongs:

Back in the 90's all the video poker writers used the term "expected return." I suppose it was sometime around 2000 that one of the groups asserted that "expected value" was a better term to use. Everyone switched to using "EV." I don't know if EV was used by writers on other forms of gambling. It may have been video poker writers that started using it first but I don't know for sure.

"EV" is a probability term. There are other terms that mean the same thing, like expected loss or expected win. So one does not need to use the term EV to be talking about EV.

Did Walter's use the term "EV" in his book? I haven't found an example yet of him using that exact term. But I found one example where he is definitely discussing EV, but just not using the exact term. This excerpt comes from the section called Parlays & Teasers:

"In a straight bet laying $110 to win $100, the expected loss is 4.6%. Under the current rules in which a tie is a non-bet, a two-team parlay has an expected loss of 9.8 percent-more than twice the expected loss of a straight bet laying $110/$100. A three-team parlay has an expected loss of 12.4 percent, almost three times the expected loss of a straight bet."

Telling us what the Expected Loss is....is telling us what the Expected Value is.

This belong here also:

In his book, Billy Walters has a system for calculating the strength of his plays. It is a "star system" but really just another way of calculating EV. He has a chart called "The Relative Value Of Each Point, NFL." You'll find the chart below. This is the chart that shows the chances of exactly hitting the spread. which we've had on here earlier. His "star system" looks like this. The higher the percentage the more he bets.:

5.5% = .5 star
7% = 1 star
9% = 1.5 stars
11% = 2 stars
13% = 2.5 stars
15% = 3 stars

So if Walters had a power ratings differential of 2.5 and the line is -4 he has a 1.5 star bet. This is how he calculates it. There are two pertinent numbers between his power ratings differential, 2.5, and the -4 line, the numbers 3 and 4. If his team loses by 3 he wins the bet. If his team loses by 4 he pushes the bet.

So from the chart he takes the 8% that the 3 is worth and adds half the value of the 4, 1.5% to it. So at 9.5% its a 1.5 star bet.

Looks like calculating EV to me.

This belongs here too:

After his two master class chapters Walters has a chapter called War Stories. For the 2009 super bowl he had a ratings differential of 2.5 points in favor of Pittsburgh over Arizona. The line was Pittsburgh -6.5. For betting purposes it's huge. He has the numbers 3, 4, 5, and 6 covered. 8% for the 3, 3% for the 4, 3% for the 5, and 5% for the 6. It's 19%, a very big 3 star play.

He bets 850K on Arizona +4 at halftime and 1.5 million on Arizona +6.5 for the game.

I'm sure some of you remember this play. With 18 seconds left in the half the score is Pittsburgh 10, Arizona 7. Arizona has the ball on the Pittsburgh 1 yard line ready to score. So Billy has the first half locked up....except....

Kurt Warner threw an interception to James Harrison in the end zone who went 100 yards to score for Pittsburgh.A quote from Billy "As the record-setting one-hundred-yard interception return for a touchdown unfolded on the TV screen in our Las Vegas home, Susan and I could not believe that a 243 pound linebacker was traversing the entire length of the field with my pretty money in his arms."

Pittsburgh won the game 28-24 so Billy won the game bet.

Here's a video of that play:

https://youtu.be/w7IB9Rk2ro0