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I've noticed in November that the 235.5+ totals are something like 15-2 so far, and most haven't been close.
Here's my shot at this until this trend reverses. I don't think the books are properly lining these "no defense" games.
Soon:
Washington vs Dallas - Over 243
Later:
Lakers vs Sacramento - Over 235.5
I feel like a big time plop.
Success for you on game 1, and you locked in wisely on game 2. Lakers/Kings betting total has moved up to 237ish.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Final: 110-125.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
That's not fair. 1st half total was 131! And then 2nd half limped in at 104.
Checking an analytics site, 1st half scoring this season is running just about 2% higher than 2nd half.
Magic/Bulls last night went totally the other way. 83 H1, 107 H2.
Four NBA overs:
Sacramento vs San Antonio - Over 238 -110
Atlanta vs Philadelphia - Over 236 -110
Milwaukee vs Charlotte - Over 240.5 -110
Utah vs Phoenix - Over 237 -110
One of the sportsbooks I play used to have a thing where if you had 2 different wagers that lost by half point in one day, they would count the smaller wager as a push.Quote:
Originally Posted by Don PerignomFinal: 110-125.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
That's not fair.
Haven't seen it mentioned recently, maybe they did away with it.
3-1 on those four above, only losing Milwaukee over.
Milwaukee over 245
Lakers over 237.5
Lost Lakers over.
Today:
Overs today:
Atlanta 237
Toronto 241
Lakers 240.5
Passing on a few others I don't like, such as Charlotte
Won first two easily, lost Lakers
Druff System NBA over picks today:
Washington at Milwaukee - Over 246.5
San Antonio at Golden State - Over 236
Skipping Indiana
Won Mil over, lost San Antonio.
Today:
We're to the point of firing a line over 250.
Getting crazy but I'm going to keep on this trend until the books seem to find a reliable way to fully adjust. They're slowly moving things up, but there's still value to be had here.
Atlanta at Washington - Over 250.5
Washington only scored 108, so I lost by 6.5.
Ok I've been mulling this one over and I like it enough.
Haven't done well on these west coast overs, but here ya go...
Dallas at Clippers - Over 237.5
Lost Clippers over too. Ugh.
Starting soon:
Detroit vs Washington - Over 237.5
Skipping Indiana over.
Even though I've lost 3 in a row with this "system", I'm going to continue selectively going with certain high lined games, and this is one of them.
Atlanta games, aside from their last bout with Boston, are incredibly high scoring.
Atlanta at Cleveland - Over 237.5
It is easy to be a Monday morning QB, with the should have, could haves. That is not my intend, Dan Druff. I am just wondering if you have considered this:
In almost all sports offenses are ahead of defenses in the early part of the season. That is because defense has to be a team effort. All cylinders of players have to be clicking and working together and that takes a little while. You will see higher scoring games very early in the season in basketball, baseball, football. I am not so sure about hockey.
So you were really good to identify this trend even stronger than usual early on and jump on it. But it may be winding down or even have ended. Not that there won't be high scoring games. Basketball like most sports has moved toward more scoring. But the really extreme scores we have seen early this season may be gravitating back to somewhat normal. Just the opinion of a nobody.
Thanks.
Unfortunately these over trends are indeed starting to die down. Yesterday's pick was good, it just lost because of an anomaly 4th quarter (41 points!)
Here's one today:
Atlanta at San Antonio - Over 248 -105 (Bovada)
W yesterday
Today:
San Antonio at New Orleans - Over 237.5 -107
Only going to take one of the NBA overs. Celtics have often kept the one of the lowest opposition PPG in the league. Not gonna touch that one, especially at 245.
Taking Kings/Pelicans at over 238.5
Toronto -4 vs Miami
Washington vs Philadelphia - Over 242 -115
Atlanta vs Denver - Over 242 -105
Sacramento vs OKC - Over 244.5 -110
Last minute NBA over
Denver vs Oklahoma City - Over 238.5 -110
Results (All spreads/totals are unless otherwise stated)
11/15:
Washington vs Dallas - Over 243 - W +0.91
Lakers vs Sacramento - Over 235.5 - L -1.00
11/17:
Sacramento vs San Antonio - Over 238 - W +0.91
Atlanta vs Philadelphia - Over 236 - W +0.91
Milwaukee vs Charlotte - Over 240.5 - L -1.00
Utah vs Phoenix - Over 237 - W +0.91
11/20: Milwaukee at Washnington - Over 245 - W +0.91
11/21: Lakers vs Utah - Over 237.5 - L -1.00
11/22:
Atlanta vs Washington - Over 237 - W +0.91
Toronto at Indiana - Over 241 - W +0.91
Lakers vs Dallas - Over 240.5 - L -1.00
11/24:
Washington at Milwaukee - Over 246.5 - W +0.91
San Antonio at Golden State - Over 236 - L -1.00
11/25:
Atlanta at Washington - Over 250.5 - L -1.00
Dallas at Clippers - Over 237.5 - L -1.00
11/27: Detroit vs Washington - Over 237.5 - L -1.00
11/28: Atlanta at Cleveland - Over 237.5 - L -1.00
11/30: Atlanta at San Antonio - Over 248 -105 - W +0.95
12/1: San Antonio at New Orleans - Over 237.5 -107 - L -1.00
12/4: Kings vs Pelicans - Over 238.5 - W +0.91
12/6:
Toronto -4 vs Miami - L -1.00
Washington vs Philadelphia - Over 242 -115 - W +0.87
12/11: Atlanta vs Denver - Over 242 -105 - W +0.95
12/14: Sacramento vs OKC - Over 244.5 - W +0.91
12/16: Denver vs Oklahoma City - Over 238.5 - L -1.00
TOTAL: 13-12, -0.13 units
Detroit at Atlanta - Over 246.5 -115
Washington at Sacramento - Over 249.5
Hit 'em both to put me back up for the season.
Now 15-12, +1.65 units
Washington at Portland - Over 238.5
Memphis at New Orleans - Over 229.5
(yes this is my first over which isn't 235+)
Got super lucky to win yesterday. Had 196 with 1:45 left.
Today:
NBA 241 OVERS
Toronto at Washington - Over 241
New York at OKC - Over 241
Results:
Washington at Portland - Over 238.5 - L -1.00
Memphis at New Orleans - Over 229.5 - W +0.91
Toronto at Washington - Over 241 - L -1.00
New York at OKC - Over 241 - W +0.91
Total: 2-2, -0.18
Grand total: 17-14, +1.47 units
San Antonio at Memphis - Over 236
Detroit at Utah - over 240.5
Portland at Dallas - over 240
Lakers vs Toronto - Over 236 -113 (236.5 -110 ok)
Horrible first half, sub-100 coming into final minute. Yet it covered by 27. Go figure.
Today:
I hate lines over 250.
With that said, these two teams play basically zero defense. This one justifies the high line.
Washington at Indiana - Over 252 -115
Lost big time yesterday on that pick.
Today, over on all 4 remaining games:
Milwaukee vs Boston - Over 247
Oklahoma City vs Portland - Over 236.5
Dallas vs New York - Over 233.5
Lakers vs Phoenix - Over 238.5
Today:Quote:
Milwaukee vs Boston - Over 247 - L
Oklahoma City vs Portland - Over 236.5 - L
Dallas vs New York - Over 233.5 - W
Lakers vs Phoenix - Over 238.5 - screw job, had 236 with 91s and 2 free throws coming - L
The time for the end of NBA overs has come near. I stated about 8 weeks ago that the totals would substantially rise to account for the change in scoring, and indeed now we are seeing totals over 260, and over 240 is commonplace.
Yesterday I went 1-3, though honestly I deserved 2-2. Lakers game had 91s left, total was 236, and 2 free throws were being shot. Missed both, and everything else missed. Needed 239.
Anyway, I'm going with one today, and ignoring the Pacers/Hawks game, regardless of how tempting.
Toronto at Utah - Over 242.5 -108
2023: 17-14, +1.47 units
2024:
1/2: San Antonio at Memphis - Over 236 - L -1.00
1/3:
Detroit at Utah - over 240.5 - W +0.91
Portland at Dallas - over 240 - L -1.00
1/9: Lakers vs Toronto - Over 236 -113 - W +0.88
1/10: Washington at Indiana - Over 252 -115 - L -1.00
1/11:
Milwaukee vs Boston - Over 247 - L -1.00
Oklahoma City vs Portland - Over 236.5 - L -1.00
Dallas vs New York - Over 233.5 - W +0.91
Lakers vs Phoenix - Over 238.5 - L -1.00
1/12: Toronto at Utah - Over 242.5 -108 - W +0.93
2024 subtotal: 4-6, -2.37 units
Grand total: 21-20, -0.90 units
It's 2024 and every NBA team scores a ton, right?
Not so fast. In 3 of the past 6 Magic games, the total has been under 200. 5 of the past 6 under 211.
In 4 of the past 6 Cavs games, their opponent has scored 95 or fewer points.
Now these two are facing off. 215.5 is a great buy.
Orlando vs Cleveland - Under 215.5 -115
Lost yesterday.
Indiana vs Denver - Under 237 +100
Starting soon
Lakers at Houston - Over 235
Last minute:
Clippers at Washington - Under 235.5 -115
Here's one with more time:
Denver at Oklahoma City - Under 222.5
Through 1/14: 21-20, -0.90 units
1/22: Orlando vs Cleveland - Under 215.5 -115 - L -1.00
1/23: Indiana vs Denver - Under 237 +100 - W +1.00
1/29: Lakers at Houston - Over 235 - W +0.91
1/31:
Clippers at Washington - Under 235.5 -115 - W +0.87
Denver at Oklahoma City - Under 222.5 - W +0.91
Total 1/22-1/31: 4-1, +2.69 units
Grand total: 25-21, +1.79 units
Indiana at New York - Under 235
Philadelphia at Utah - Over 239 -112
Won both of those above. Now have hit 6 in a row.
Today:
Golden State at Atlanta - Under 244.5
Lost yesterday.
Today:
Boston vs Memphis - Under 219
Minnesota vs Houston - Over 220.5 (Bovada)
Toronto at Oklahoma City - Over 238.5
Won Toronto over in 2OT, other two lost
Today:
Utah vs OKC - Under 238
Lost by 3 yesterday.
Today:
Washington vs Cleveland - Under 234.5
San Antonio at Miami - Over 227.5
Portland vs New Orleans - under 221 -115
Golden Stare at Utah - under 240.5
Past posting time!
I fired on Sacramento vs Miami Under 224.5 but forgot to post it here
Since the game just started, I'm counting it in my record no matter what happens
Lost yesterday, be glad you missed it.
Here's a bounceback pick
New Orleans at New York - Under 215
Past 6 scoring outputs for Portland: 96, 80, 112, 91, 109, 84
Past 6 scoring outputs for Memphis: 101, 86, 95, 113, 121, 87
That's 4 of 6 with 96 or fewer for Portland, and 3 of 6 with 95 or fewer for Memphis.
Today they play each other.
Portland at Memphis - Under 207.5
Orlando at New York - Under 204.5
Toronto at Portland - Over 228.5
San Antonio at Golden State - Under 226.5
Split, but I only won the Toronto game thanks to OT (113-113 in reg).
Noon game today:
Clippers vs Bucks - Under 222
Lost the under above.
Tonight:
Portland +7 vs Boston - FIRST HALF
Lost above pick.
Time for a Knicks under.
Knicks unders are 7-1 since February 27, and almost 8-0.
Knicks games have seen one or both teams score fewer than 80 (!!) points in 3 of the past 4 contests.
Only 1 Knicks game since Feb 27 had both teams score 100+, and that one the Knicks had exactly 100.
No team in a Knicks game has scored 119+ since February 10.
New York at Sacramento - Under 217
great pick and analysis -Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
definitely worthwhile to bet when you have a great analysis such as this
on covers.com I tracked it and the Knicks are 24-5 on the Under on the last 29 games
they keep setting the totals on the Knicks unrealistically high - I guess in this game because the Kings are capable of scoring a lot
on 3/10 against the 6ers the 2 teams only scored 152 and the total was set at 212 - that's crazy
.
Since the All-star break total have been down. Druff made mention of this several weeks ago. the first two weeks, unders were hitting at 75-80% but have since cooled off a bit, as totals have been adjusted. But for a variety of reasons there are teams that have just been strong under plays over this time. As noted the Knicks head that list.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
But there are a few others where injuries have factored in, like the 76ers. They hit the under at a good clip since Embiid was injured. Other teams like the Bucks got a new coach who places more emphasis on defense and their totals have dropped slightly but enough to make a difference. Trades also factored in.
I have been playing this angle slightly differently in playing the half time unders rather rather the game under for certain games. This is something I started doing with college basketball, but continued into the NBA. With the half-time under you won't have to deal with that final 30 seconds and all the fouling as a team tries to catch up. NBA isn't as bad as college with this but, still if a team is down by 3-5 points, there can be 4 or 5 possession's including several fouls to extend the game. can easily be 8, 10, occasionally 12 points scored in the final half minute. With half time unders, not only do you eliminate this fouling, but the final half minute (24 seconds in NBA) will result in exactly 1 possession.
KNICKS UNDER AUTOBET
8-1 since Feb 27, most easily covering by a million points
Knicks at Golden State - Under 212 -105 (Bovada)
Lost above bet.
Today:
Miami vs Golden State - Under 217.5
Almost every NBA playoff game going under so far.
Big under.
So let's do one.
Lakers at Denver - Under 223
Games going under and home teams have won every game to date (11-0).Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The under angle is something that occurs in most sports come playoff time. Defense seems to take over or become more important or whatever.
Won easily last night.
More NBA playoffs unders
Giannis is out. How have the Bucks fared, total-wise since he was injured on 4/9/24?
195, 216, 232, 201, 203
All of these have gone under except the 232. The 203 was the last game.
Free throws were reduced big time by lesser penalty calling, starting midseason. This put the brakes on out of control high scores we had seen earlier. It seems that the playoffs are not just more of the same, already with some non-calls which should have been fouls. Indeed, games are going way under.
Milwaukee vs Indiana - Under 223.5
Silly me. Instead of blanketing all 3 unders, as I almost did tonight, I picked my favorite one.
The Milwaukee under lost, the Phoenix under easily won, and the Clippers under is highly likely to win.
Damnit.
New York Knicks at Philadelphia - Over 205 -110
Lakers -1 vs Denver
Dallas vs Clippers - over 213
Miami +14 -115 (+13.5 -105 ok) at Boston
Feels weird even typing this for a postseason game.
Cleveland / Boston - Under 204
Minnesota at Denver - Over 201 -115
I have the under, which at halftime is looking ok. BUT my under, bet this morning was 196.5 (YouWager). So what happened that the total shot up 4.5 points today? Is there something I missed? I would feel better right now with that higher number.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Dallas +7