MLB opening day
Boston (Bello) +131 at Seattle (Castillo)
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MLB opening day
Boston (Bello) +131 at Seattle (Castillo)
Won first pick above.
Today:
Mets (Houser) -131 vs Detroit (Mize)
Dan, what's your overall MLB record?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Seattle (L. Castillo) +104 at Toronto (Berrios)
Cubs +126 at Milwaukee
Lost Seattle, won the Cubs, and the Detroit one from April 2 was rained out.
Presently 2-1, +1.57 units
A PFA Radio listener messaged me that he felt Boston/Baltimore under was good today.
I agree.
Not only are two hot pitchers (Rodriguez and Whitlock) going, but it's cold and foggy.
The only caveat? Rodriguez seems to have chronic issues with the HR ball, and not just this year. So don't blame me if he gives up a few multi-run HR.
Boston (Whitlock) vs Baltimore (G. Rodriguez) - Under 8.5 -117 (u8 +100 ok)
Hate betting baseball totals sometimes.
2-1 after 7.
3-3, and we go to extras.
Baltimore explodes, goes up 9-3, final is 9-4.
Total joke
If you are an unders player, there is nothing worse than having the game go as you expected only to get squashed by the stupid overtime rules of MLB (extra innings) or college football that encourage multiple scoring in the overtime. For these reasons, plus all the fouling and scoring in basketball at the end of the game, I usually limit my under wagers to halftimes (or first 5 innings in baseball) to eliminate all this nonsense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Additionally, baseball the lines including run lines are based on starting pitchers, who in this modern era only pitch 5 or 6 innings anyway. So why make a wager based on starting pitching when the results likely will be determined by bullpens. :confused:
When I like an under I bet the first 5 innings or first half of a game. When I like an over I bet the entire game. And if I like or am looking at an over in baseball, I consider the teams bullpen as much, if not more than starting pitchers. There are teams with lousy bullpens (like Cincinatti) that I will bet an over knowing that even if the game is going along under at 2-2 in the 7th inning, I have a reasonable chance to get to the over.
AxelWolf negates UNKewlJ sports betting:
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Oakland (P. Blackburn) -128 vs Washington (Irvin)
Jake Irvin has given up a lot of hard contact, and I don’t have faith he will turn it around in Oakland.
Somehow Blackburn, never a good pitcher, was stellar in his first 2 starts. Can he make it 3?
Oakland blew a 1-0 lead in the 9th, went to extras, and they got it. Phew.
Today:
Shota Imanaga has been amazing thus for, with a 12/0 K-BB ratio, and a 0.00 ERA through 10 innings.
Seattle's Emerson Hancock has had velocity issues. He showed up in the spring with a 97 mph two-seamer and 90 mph changeup. In his last outing, those figures were at 92.9 and 87.3. Something is wrong.
Cubs (Imanaga) -132 at Seattle (E. Hancock)
2 baseball games starting very shortly
Arizona -114 (Henry) vs Cubs (Hendricks)
Oakland +125 (Sears) vs St. Louis (Lynn)
Boston +105 (Bello) at Pittsburgh (Priester)
Quinn Priester appeared in 10 games last year, starting 8, and pitched to a 7.74 ERA.
He was a semi-high-level prospect, and disappointed the Pirates last year.
He's back, after a mediocre start in the minors (3.95 ERA, 20/5 K-BB ratio).
It's possible that Priester rights this ship in 2024, but I don't think it's going to happen on the road in Boston.
Another one starting soon:
Washington (Gore) +136 vs Houston (Verlander)
Justin Verlander is 41, and coming off an injury. In a 77-pitch rehab start, he gave up 5 ER and 7 hits. He will be limited to 85 pitches at most. This has disaster written all over it, even against a bad Washington team.
On the flip side, Mackenzie Gore, once a bust of a high-level prospect, seems to be "finding it" in 2024, both with increased velocity and much better numbers. He's 25, so perhaps he is just hitting his stride a bit late. In any case, he's the far better pitcher in this matchup, at least for now.
Tampa (Littel) -106 vs Detroit (Skubal)
Yankees (Cortes) vs Oakland (Wood) - Under 7.5 -110
Won yesterday.
Today:
Washington (T. Williams) +111 at Miami (A. Maldanado)
Won again.
Tonight:
Arizona (Cecconi) +133 at Seattle (Kirby)
Minnesota (Ryan) at White Sox (Crochet) - Over 7.5 +100
Milwaukee (Wilson) vs Tampa (Pepiot) - Under 8 -105
Cubs (Assad) +107 at Mets (Manaea)
Javier Assad is in his 3rd season in MLB. His ERA is 2.00, WHIP 1.00, and he hasn't had a bad start yet.
He also hasn't had a bad season yet.
However, he is constantly overlooked because his stuff isn't that great, and he has a career 150/70 K-BB ratio. But he just seems to get guys out, and never gets bombed.
Also: Kansas City (Ragans) +114 at Toronto (Berrios)
Washington (Gore) at Texas (J. Gray) - Under 8 -118
Dodgers (Yamamoto) at Arizona (J. Montgomery) - Under 26.5 R+H+E -120
Just barely squeaked by on that one above, having to sweat out the final pitch. Ended up 25 R+H+E, so victory. Yamamoto came through, Montgomery did not, but it all worked out.
Today:
Cleveland (L. Allen) at Houston (Arighetti) - OVER 5.5 +100 - FIRST 5 INNINGS (5 -130 ok)
The CLE/HOU game tonight has some weird elements. You have an unexpectedly bad Houston team which, despite their 10-20 record, still might get over it and break out any time. You have a Tribe team which is better than expected so far, with the reverse record (20-10).
Both pitchers have issues. Logan Allen (not to be confused with the one in Arizona) has allowed 6 HR in 31 innings, has given up 3+ runs in 5 of 6 starts, and threw only 48/91 pitches for strikes in his last outing. Through 30 starts dating back to last year, his career WHIP is about 1.4. Ouch.
Then Houston has Spencer Arrighetti, a rookie with an 11 ERA through 3 starts, who inexplicably kept his rotation position when Verlander came back. The only upside? He struck out 7 batters in 3 2/3 innings (!!) in his last outing, but also gave up 7 hits and 2 walks. He's actually fanned 15 in just over 10 innings of work thus far, yet has given up 18 hits and 7 walks. Think 2022-23 Hunter Greene, who was dominant with the strikeouts, but otherwise wasn't getting the job done. Greene seems to be finally coming around in 2024.
Anyway, I see 6+ runs in the first 5 innings.
Atlanta (R Lopez) vs Boston (K Crawford) - Under 8.5 -105
https://twitter.com/JohnDenton555/st...10670198927808
That's a pretty bad lineup.
Mikolas pitched better the last 2 games, but he hasn't been good since 2022.
Mets +109 (Butto) at St. Louis (Mikolas)
Kansas City (Singer) +136 at Seattle (Kirby)
Lost KC above.
Today:
Cristian Javier got injured in mid-April. He then came back on May 11, and.... it didn't go well. He got hammered for 7 runs, and had decreased velocity.
Today is his second try back. Is he magically healed 5 days later? Maybe, but I'll take the chance that he's not.
Joey Estes (not related to former pitcher Shawn Estes, who indeed is old enough to be his dad) is a high-ceiling prospect who was having a bad season in the minors, but somehow put forth 5 nice innings against the Mariners in his first start this year.
The truth is that neither of these guys are reliable, but I'll take the big dog line for Javier to get hammered again in the first 5.
Oakland (Estes) +170 at Houston (C. Javier) - FIRST 5 INNINGS
Lost above badly.
Today:
Atlanta (Fried) -1.5 -105 vs San Diego (Waldron)
Fried has allowed 0 runs in 3 of his past 4 starts, the lone exception being against the powerful Dodgers.
Waldron has allowed a HR in each of his last 5 starts, with a 19/9 K-BB ratio over that stretch, including one absolute bombing by Arizona. He should have trouble on the road against a team like the Braves, even with a somewhat diminished lineup.
Detroit (Olson) -104 at KC (Wacha)
San Francisco (Harrison) +129 at New York (C. Scott)
Verlander is 41 and starting to show his age. Very inconsistent this year.
Ross Stripling just isn't good.
Wind blowing out at 14mph.
Need any more reasons?
Houston (Verlander) at Oakland (Stripling) - Over 4.5 -110 FIRST 5 INNINGS
One more.
Cubs (Imanaga) -0.5 -125 at St. Louis (Mikolas) - FIRST 5 INNINGS
Dodgers (Yamamoto) at Cincinnati (bullpen) - Under 8.5 +100
Won last game.
Today:
Fresh off busting Day 2 of the WSOP Omaha 8...
Arizona (Gallen) -122 at Mets (C. Scott)
Reasoning: Mets are a fucking fiasco.
Lost above
Today:
Milwaukee (bullpen/Rea) +138 at Philadelphia (C. Sanchez)
Yankees (N. Cortes) -109 vs Atlanta (Fried)
Atlanta/Yankees - Under 8.5 -105
Kansas City (Marsh) at Texas (Scherzer) - Over 4.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS -110
Scherzer is almost 40 and is coming off an injury, making his first start of the year. He didn't look that great in his rehab assignments.
Marsh bombed last time out, and has pitched poorly in 4 of his last 5 starts.
Cincinnati (Spiers) -130 vs Pittsburgh (Falter)
Dan Druff, just bet the Phillies every day. The win, usually by 2+ and score more that 5 runs most days. Find some combination of those things to bet and you can't go wrong right now.
Attention Dodgers haters.
Bobby Miller has NOT been good since returning from a long DL stint. In fact, even his minor league rehab outings were not good (though he did manage to touch 99 on his fastball).
You can get the Diamondbacks for a pretty good dog line (like +165 since I last checked). The Dodgers lineup is also thin with Mookie and Muncy on the DL, though the bottom half has somehow performed lately.
Being a big Dodgers fan I will not bet against them, but if I weren't, I'd strongly consider betting Arizona today.
But you know what I will do? A first 5 over. Not only is Miller having problems, but so is Ryne Nelson, who will be taking over for Arizona opener Joe Mantiply.
Also... going with the Padres.
San Diego (Cease) -113 at Texas (Eovaldi)
Dodgers (B. Miller) at Arizona (bullpen) - OVER 5 FIRST 5 INNINGS -110
About to start:
Oakland (Sears) -110 vs Anaheim (Canning)
Easy win.
Tonight:
I hate being a fucking ploppy but this one really is calling out to me.
River Ryan is the #34-ish ranked MLB prospect, and is on the Dodgers. His MLB debut tonight will be at home against SF. He's facing Blake Snell. Yes, the bottom of the Dodgers lineup is thin, given the team is missing Mookie Betts and Max Muncy, and it was already thin to begin with.
But...
- The Giants are 20-30 on the road this year
- Blake Snell has an ERA over 6, even though his last 2 starts were strong
- The Giants lineup simply isn't that good
Were this something like a -150 line, we wouldn't be discussing anything.
But at -122, I like the Dodgers here.
Dodgers (Riv. Ryan) -122 vs San Francisco (Snell)
I've got an over on two offensive juggernauts.... Oakland and Anaheim!
But stick with me here.
Ross Stripling was horrendous in May before finally getting put on the DL for 2 months. He's back today.
Kenny Rosenburg has never pitched well in his limited stints in MLB since 2022, and this will be his first start of 2024. He's pitched (poorly) in relief thus far.
Oakland (Rosenburg) at Anaheim (Stripling) - OVER 9.5 -120
Won last 3.
Today:
Atlanta (Morton) +123 at Mets (Senga)
Kodai Senga, who is coming off the DL (finally), got hammered in his AAA rehab start.
Atlanta up 2-0. Nice start.
If you missed it, here's a bet on the Angels.
Paul Blackburn is another pitcher like Ross Stripling the other day. Pitched horribly in May and got put on the 60-day DL. Just came off of it. Had a horrible start in rehab at AAA.
You can get almost even money here fading him, plus Angels are at home!
Anaheim (Fulmer) -114 vs Oakland (Blackburn)
Wow... 2-0 lead for Atlanta, 4-0 lead for Anaheim, lost both. Ouch.
Today:
Post CG letdown.
Pitchers don't throw 9 innings anymore. Used to be common. Now it's extremely rare.
Seth Lugo, having a dream season, threw 9 on July 21 against the hapless White Sox. It was a good game, and it took him 103 pitches to complete.
However, I have seen the phenomenon where pitchers who throw CG then have a subpar start next time out, presumably due to fatigue.
Seth Lugo also has never thrown more than 146.3 innings in a season. What's his inning count now? 136. Also, despite his eye-popping overall numbers, he gave up 5 ER and 10 H two starts ago, and has given up 4-5 ER three times since early June.
I'll go with Shota Imanaga on this one, who just pitched two great games against Baltimore and Arizona.
Cubs (Imanaga) +121 at Kansas City (Lugo)
Warning: Sharps are on the other side of this one, for the most part.
Won above.
Here's something interesting.
Watch this interview with Sonny Gray, after his last start which didn't go well:
https://twitter.com/BallySportsMW/st...50130593272118
In his last 5 starts, spanning 28 1/3 innings, Gray has given up 21 ER. This wasn't from one bombing. Three starts saw 5 ER, the other two saw 3 ER.
He's given up 5 ER in back to back starts.
This could be just an outlier where he got unlucky for 5 straight starts. He struck out 10 against Atlanta on July 20, but gave up 4 HR. He isn't walking that many people.
However, there's something weird about that interview. He talks about having to find the commitment to pitch well again. He admits to feeling physically fine. It almost seems like he's going through something but doesn't want to talk about it.
Now, how would you like to oppose the troubled Gray? How would you like to oppose him when he's on the road? How would you like to oppose him for basically even money? How would you like your pitcher to be Shota Imanaga?
You would?
You're in luck.
Cubs (Imanaga) -114 vs St. Louis (S. Gray)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I know nothing about baseball, but it is that time. I am going to pull the trigger today (and probably tomorrow). For a hint as to on whom, check out my "For Monet" thread.
ChiSox. Half the wager on the moneyline. Half the wager on the run line.
Say thank you. Will decide whether to fire tomorrow a couple of hours before the game. Any wager will be half of today's wager.
Fade Corbin Burnes.
Starting 4:15pm PDT.
Is Corbin "Burneing" out? Maybe. He allowed 5 runs in his last outing, and hasn't put up a zero-run outing since June 10. He's given up 9 ER in his last 19 IP over his prior 3 starts.
Tampa's starting with an opener who is inconsequential, but will then continue with Tyler Alexander, who was great last time out against the Astros (in Houston), but has also had some stinkers mixed in. He is one of these guys who is inconsistent, so don't blame me if he gets bombed. But he could very well pitch decently. In his past 3 appearances, he's allowed just 1 run in his past 9 2/3 innings.
I suggest you take "action" on this game, as the Tampa "starter" doesn't matter, and another starter instead of Burnes would be fine too.
Tampa (bullpen/Alexander) +121 vs Baltimore (Burnes)
Lost above pick.
Total runs+hits+RBI Ohtani over 1.5 -145 (versus Milwaukee in MIL)
Won due to HR on Ohtani's 3rd AB.
Tonight we are going to bet on the wind.
10mph wind blowing out at ATT Park tonight at 6:30pm. Decreasing to 7mph by 9pm.
Charlie Morton, who is almost 41, has been an enigma. In 2 of his last 3 starts, Morton has given up 3 and 4 HR -- in just 2 2/3 innings each! The August 1 start in between he was great, but that was against Miami. Occasionally Morton will throw a good game, but he seems to be having problems with the longball, giving up 11 HR in his past 5 games.
Kyle Harrison, who is definitely NOT near 41, is also having HR issues. He gave up 4 at Cincy on August 3. In his last start at Washington, he was removed after just 61 pitches, and his fastball was often in the 80s. Not good!
I like seeing these two facing up tonight with the wind blowing out, so you know which direction I'm going.
Atlanta (Morton) at San Francisco (Harrison) - OVER 8 -110
Lost, though had a decent chance in extras.
Buehler alert
Didn't pitch well in rehab start. I think the guy is cooked.
Dodgers (Buehler) at Milwaukee (Montas) - OVER 5 FIRST 5 INNINGS -102
.
imho the o/u is definitely easier to beat than the money line on the game winner
and the props - such as the one you beat above - easier than that
.
Decided to go with a triple.
Waldron, please get bombed.
Colorado (Quantrill) +144 vs San Diego (Waldron)
Matt Waldron under 16.5 outs recorded -130
Colorado/SD Over 6 First 5 innings -110
Wow, soooooo close to 3-0 above.
Over easily won.
Colorado easily won.
Waldron, despite giving up 6 early, was allowed to stay in through the 6th. He allowed a leadoff double, was well over 90 pitches, and still stayed in, despite it being a 6-3 game. He then retired the next 2 batters, killing my bet. Then he allowed the run to score on the next batter, and he was taken out. Damn.
Anyway, still came away +1.35 units.
Starting shortly:
Dodgers (B. Miller) at St. Louis (Pallante) - OVER 5 FIRST 5 INNINGS
Miller hasn't even looked good at AAA. Another pitcher who is not ready to be in MLB again.
The latest in a series of "5 innings over bets on struggling pitchers"
Taj Bradley looks like he has decent numbers (3.49, 1.143 ERA), but he has scuffled badly in his last 3 starts, including against lowly Miami.
Joe Boyle has a 7.39 ERA and 1.832 WHIP over 31 innings this year.
I like over 4 runs being plated here, even with the sad offenses of the A's and Rays.
Oakland (Boyle) vs Tampa (T. Bradley) - OVER 4 -105 FIRST 5 INNINGS
*** NOTE: Sharps aren't on my side on this one
Lost yesterday
Last minute:
Yankees (Gil) vs Cleveland (M. Boyd) - Under 8 -115
Buehler alert
I'm going to keep fading his performance until I see evidence that he is right.
Walker Buehler Over 2.5 earned runs +106 (Betonline props section for the individual game, if you need to find this bet)
Won the prop, lost the other
Philadelphia (T. Walker) +117 at Kansas City (Wacha)
Lost yesterday
St. Louis (S. Gray) at Minnesota (P. Lopez) - OVER 7.5 -115
Minnesota -141 vs St. Louis
Why?
https://twitter.com/dgoold/status/1827756909983563882
Minnesota blew it in the 9th. Was up 2-1. Sad!
Today:
Colorado (Feltner) -110 vs Miami (E. Cabrera)
Won above bet.
---
Sorry Walker, but until I see evidence that you've legit recovered from your 2nd TJ surgery, I'm going to keep hitting these.
Walker Buehler Over 2.5 earned runs (versus Baltimore) +106
Won pick above.
Dodgers are sending out Bobby Miller. He struck out 9 Rays last time, but the Rays can't hit. He still coughed up 2 HR. He hasn't yet proven he's "back" since the injury earlier in the yera.
Cade Povich is going for the Orioles, who hasn't had a strong start in the Majors in quite some time. He gave up 5 ER last time out.
Admittedly, the Dodgers are fielding a bad lineup tonight, with the 4-9 spots being a bunch of scrubs (after Ohtani, Betts, Teoscar), so there's a chance they will scuffle against the shaky rookie Povich.
I still think we will get 5+ runs between them in the first 5.
Dodgers (B. Miller) vs Baltimore (Povich) - OVER 5 -110 FIRST 5 INNINGS
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
then you reported:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
but according to the link Buehler only gave up 2 earned runs - is it a mistake__________?_______per the link he gave up 4 runs total but only 2 earned runs
https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...uehlwa01.shtml
.
Oakland (J. Estes) at Texas (Bradford) - Under 8.5 -115
That's so strange.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half SmokeQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
then you reported:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
but according to the link Buehler only gave up 2 earned runs - is it a mistake__________?_______per the link he gave up 4 runs total but only 2 earned runs
https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...uehlwa01.shtml
.
I saw he had allowed 3 ER and someone on my other site saw it too, and congratulated me on the win. I stopped looking at that point.
Something must have changed later. Either it was an error in initial reporting, or a scoring change. Sucks.
Guess it was a loss.
Welcome to another exciting installment of "Druff taking advantage of injured pitchers".
Today our subject is Steven Matz.
He was awful during the first month of the season. Then... he got hurt. For a long time. His return is today, over 4 months later.
His first 4 rehab starts went very well, but his last one did not.
Aaron Civale has pitched fairly well in his last 4 starts, including two zero-run outings in his past 3 games. The Cardinals are not a good team, despite somehow being at .500. Their fan base absolutely hates this team, and has been staying home in recent months.
Normally I don't like big favorites, but I'll make an exception here.
Milwaukee (Civale) -150 vs St. Louis (Matz)
Dodgers against Angels tonight in Anaheim.
Walker Buehler is going. 'Nuff said.
Reid Detmers was terrible during the first two months of the season, then was sent down to Salt Lake, and had a 5.54 ERA and 1.40 WHIP across 78 innings with Salt Lake this season. He has been better over his last three starts with a 1.29 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 29/7 K:BB across 21 innings, but playing the Dodgers is a big jump from that.
An evenish money bet for these two together giving up 5+ is a good one. Oh, and it's a hot day in Anaheim.
Angels (Detmers) vs Dodgers (Buehler) - OVER 5 -110 FIRST 5 INNINGS
Lost both both.
Tonight:
St. Louis (Fedde) vs Seattle (Bryce Miller) - Under 7.5 -125
Won -- and it was way too close for comfort. 3-1 game after 8. Seattle got 3 in the 9th and threatened more, and St. Louis even got a runner on in the bottom of the 9th. Final score 6-1. Phew!
Today:
San Francisco (Webb) +110 at San Diego (Cease)
Got 2 picks for you. One soon, one later.
The soon is Cleveland over. Cantillo the starter is a scrub, and the White Sox's Shuster is just an opener. It is expected that Nick Nastrini, another scrub, will get the bulk of innings.
The later is another over -- Dodgers. Walker Buehler again, and he's accompanies by the awful Kyle Hendricks.
Cleveland (Cantillo) at White Sox (opener/Nastrini) - OVER 9 -110
Dodgers (Buehler) vs Cubs (Hendricks) - OVER 5.5 -105 FIRST 5 INNINGS
Mets (J. Quintana) at Philadelphia (Nola) - Under 8.5 -105 (up to Under 8 -110 ok)
NY Mets (Megill) vs Washington (Parker) - Under 7.5 -110
Lost yesterday due to Washington giving up a lot of runs
Kansas City (Marsh) +122 vs Detroit (Skubal)
Slumping recently.
Starting soon...
We've got Cal Quantrill who returned from the DL and looked terrible.
We've got Walker Buehler who didn't too terribly last time out, but also walked 5.
Dodgers (Buehler) vs Colorado (Quantrill) - Over 5 -105 FIRST 5 INNINGS