The software is now available:
https://cdcgaming.com/acres-case-stu...g-video-poker/
The software is now available:
https://cdcgaming.com/acres-case-stu...g-video-poker/
Is this new? A release was mentioned in 2021 if not earlier:Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301333495.html
I look forward to the casinos 86ing customers who play 9/5 TDB accurately.
I think that software has been around for at least a few years but they seem to be selling it harder now. 1% of VP players are APs but they account for 26% of coin in?? That sounds like a bit of a stretch... and then somehow this software is going to increase your VP revenue 45%?? Just silliness.
Full report on their site:Quote:
Originally Posted by jdog
https://acresmanufacturing.com/advantage-video-poker/
It seems so dumb, I think I must be misunderstanding it. They took a sample, measuring player accuracy. The most accurate players beat the house substantially.
This is news to me. Where are these games that exceed 100%? I occasionally play positive progressives, but everything else is negative. My edge comes from the slot club.
It's true that I play accurately, but if I had an idea they were monitoring me, I could sprinkle in some errors for cover.
They seem to insinuate that accurate play automatically confers an advantage. If only it were that easy.
It suggests they do analysis by individual hands. Thst info isn't broadcast by the machine, right? I don't think machines have some plugin ability? Like a browser or something similar. So how does this even work?
The technology is actually pretty old. The Winpoker software for analyzing and learning vp games is 27 year old technology. In the pic below I put it in training mode, played some hands at 9/6 Jacks (99.54%)and intentionally made 14 errors. In the upper right hand corner it showed that I was playing at only 98.14% of optimum.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
If one routinely makes those same mistakes it turns a 99.54% game into a 97.7% game. This would be valuable information to slot operations or marketing or whatever. Offers can be based on how good or bad the player is.
In this training mode you can turn on the warning feature that will tell you when you're making a mistake.
The code/calculations are straight forward. I ran into a guy playing poker out of state who had written this sort of thing. It really isn't hard at all for someone with a high enough IQ. If you were a coder, you'd be able to create this technology. I suspect you could do it on your own if you really desired. Your aptitude for analyzing machine equity suggests to me that you could do such a thing. (big learning curve on the coding)Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmThe technology is actually pretty old. The Winpoker software for analyzing and learning vp games is 27 year old technology. In the pic below I put it in training mode, played some hands at 9/6 Jacks (99.54%)and intentionally made 14 errors. In the upper right hand corner it showed that I was playing at only 98.14% of optimum.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
If one routinely makes those same mistakes it turns a 99.54% game into a 97.7% game. This would be valuable information to slot operations or marketing or whatever. Offers can be based on how good or bad the player is.
In this training mode you can turn on the warning feature that will tell you when you're making a mistake.
The problem is that they have to integrate this with existing machines. Or replace the machines. So if you don't replace the machines, then the error analysis has to either be done on the backend or inside the machine itself.
Do gamemaster (?) video poker machines have some plugin capability to run the analyzer on the same machine? Given gaming laws and many other factors - this does NOT seem likely. (Gamemaster would implement this themselves before they'd architect some plugin capability which would just open up tons of potential security issues).
So that leaves that some backend system looks at the errors but then the backend systems need to know what was dealt/selected. And for that to happen the VP machine has to broadcast what happened.
Maybe there are some select newer machines this works on. Maybe you upgrade the VP machines enough and they have a capability to send the player's actions to a central server? This is the only thing that makes sense to me if they are analyzing per hand.
My guess is they don't believe their own marketing. They're grasping for straws and so they get someone to just make up some bullshit. Perhaps backed with some real set of numbers. The truth though is that theyd never be sued for lying in their marketing like that so I'm not sure it matters. Just make up crazy numbers and away they go.
Sounds like they want to sell software.
Casinos are posting record profits & with things like increased competition, online gaming, retaining & hiring new employees in a tight labor market, I would think that finding AP Video poker players is pretty low on the list.
Especially when VP is sort of a dying game except in big locals markets.
Save the "sticks, and stones" for after WWIII. Ha.
In other words, the casinos already know more about you guys than you do.
Speaking of WWIII they say a nuclear winter would block out the sun & drastically reduce temperatures, so wouldn’t WWIII be a good thing as it would cure for Global Warming?Quote:
Originally Posted by Garnabby
Correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by DGenBen
Only good because it kills off so many people who keep making it worse but the dust will settle and it will be back the way it was. So the only "cure" is the death of people by nukes. The dust would just be temporary so not really a solution.Quote:
Originally Posted by DGenBenSpeaking of WWIII they say a nuclear winter would block out the sun & drastically reduce temperatures, so wouldn’t WWIII be a good thing as it would cure for Global Warming?Quote:
Originally Posted by Garnabby
I know you're not serious but I'm just saying ..
Is there a registry where I can submit my preferred pronouns for the death certificate?Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
There's the rub. A sophisticated system must be put in place to make this work because a 30yo Game King is not designed to do this. So why bother when casinos are already doing their best to phase VP out?Quote:
Originally Posted by DGenBen
Pretty sure all VP machines log the hands played for the same reason that slot machines log the spins. At the very least there needs to be some kind of record to check for payout errors or other malfunctions.
I know player tracking systems are able to distinguish between different games on the same machine.
Actually if there is anything good about the tranny craze it probably lowers the odds of WWIII.Quote:
Originally Posted by Don PerignomIs there a registry where I can submit my preferred pronouns for the death certificate?Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Why would anyone want to nuke to us when we’re already cutting off our own dicks?
This makes sense too but I wonder what the nature of the hand log is? It is accessible remotely? That would be easiest enough though. Just grab log file every so often and read the results.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
For most shops VP isn't a big deal but AC seems very different. For a place like AC I could see it making sense. It would allow them to throw a lot more at the bad players to keep them coming back. The difference between a perfect player and a bad player could be 3x (or more) on the same coinin.
If a casino gives perks by coin-in only and isn't that sharp then maybe the software marketing doesn't have crazy numbers. I suspect most casinos are far more sophisticated than this to even be an issue anymore.
Basically this is software that gives people like Rob Singer more cookies. lol.
Good for Rob.
This is why many casinos calculate comps based on losses or a calc of loss & theo. This software tells you how much a player is theoretically losing or winning on VP play only... what's the point?? They already have loss numbers on overall rated play which is more valuable.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
So if an AP is playing a +EV progressive without a card is this software going to send a notification in real time to send someone over there and toss them out?? I'm thinking probably not. Just trying to figure out what possible benefits there could be.
They give out free play by an additional metric or they could still use theoretical loss only. They just calculate it differently.Quote:
Originally Posted by jdogThis is why many casinos calculate comps based on losses or a calc of loss & theo. This software tells you how much a player is theoretically losing or winning on VP play only... what's the point?? They already have loss numbers on overall rated play which is more valuable.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
So if an AP is playing a +EV progressive without a card is this software going to send a notification in real time to send someone over there and toss them out?? I'm thinking probably not. Just trying to figure out what possible benefits there could be.
Yeah they sure do. They imply a casino could increase their VP revenue by as much as 45% lol. C'mon, it's snake oil and I think most operators can see that.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
I'm not arguing either way. There might be a place that is run in a way where this has value. I didn't read it that closely or pay attention to the numbers but I am fairly certain I could readily come up with a reasonable comp structure and slot allotments where that could be true.Quote:
Originally Posted by jdogYeah they sure do. They imply a casino could increase their VP revenue by as much as 45% lol. C'mon, it's snake oil and I think most operators can see that.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
I wouldn't agree it is snake oil but it likely doesn't have value to many. It really is a way to cut off the penny pinching VP grinders like Dan Druff. If their comps are structured so that they lose money on perfect VP players who max comps and there are enough of those guys vs the ploppies then it has value. Most places won't be like that. I'm just sayin..
I'm more interested in the mechanics of how this software would work in the field TBH.
Interesting discussion.
Accountingquestion raises a good point. It might be difficult or impossible to integrate this software into a lot of older systems/machines. That makes it a non-starter right there when you're talking about smaller or lower budget operations which can't afford to upgrade everything.
They're also definitely fudging numbers regarding the software's benefit to casinos, as has already been discussed in this thread.
But is it advantageous for casinos to have something like this? Yes, big time. But not so much to identify APs. Instead, it's good at identifying ploppies.
The real value for casinos in video poker analysis comes from cherry picking the highest value customers and welcoming them back. Secondarily, there's a utilization in identifying mid-value customers, and separating them from low-value customers. There is not much utilization in figuring out who is an AP and who is just a tight-ass, good-paytable, by-the-book player.
What they want are high or middle stakes players who make egregious strategy errors. And then they can simply decide to no-offer anyone who simply sticks to the best games on property and also plays well.
Harrah's Lake Tahoe did this for years, giving shit offers (or no offers) to those who stuck to their full pay VP machines and nothing else. Of course, Harrah's did NOT have the ability to see how well people played, so their method was crude.
I have long thought that casino marketing dollars are very much aimed in the wrong direction. Maybe one day they'll learn. I'm not going to post suggestions out here, because casino execs do sometimes read this place (shocking, I know), and I don't want to give them any free help.
It's complicated. If the goal is to reward the most pathetic losers, vp skill analysis is far down the list of potential improvements. I think the more important measure is theo of the specific game being played. Some current systems reward 99% vp the same as 88% slots if both games are on the same machine.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
But if the system is too opaque, it causes player backlash. Venetian modified its club for this reason.
Another consideration is how individual players respond to incentives. Some bad players are loyal without any encouragement. This is the idea behind teaser offers to newly established players -- hook them initially and then dial down the rewards. But this is vulnerable to multi-accounters who discover the algorithms.
All the comp grinders are mostly on VP if they can make it work. Because of that the casino can't spit out the comps to VP because the grinders take advantage of it. This will let the casinos reward the customer base they want to award. TQuote:
Originally Posted by Don PerignomIt's complicated. If the goal is to reward the most pathetic losers, vp skill analysis is far down the list of potential improvements. I think the more important measure is theo of the specific game being played. Some current systems reward 99% vp the same as 88% slots if both games are on the same machine.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
But if the system is too opaque, it causes player backlash. Venetian modified its club for this reason.
Another consideration is how individual players respond to incentives. Some bad players are loyal without any encouragement. This is the idea behind teaser offers to newly established players -- hook them initially and then dial down the rewards. But this is vulnerable to multi-accounters who discover the algorithms.
But VP isn't much of a thing at most places like people have said .. outside of slot vultures the low value players are going to be on VP. Most importantly you can start to award the bad players more. All at once they get 2x the previous freeplay - they might just say no! to the trailer-lotted VP slotted neighbor joint.
But again, why bother paying for an expensive system just to analyze VP play?? Because you already know how much you're making or losing on any given rated player over time. I guess maybe you could id an unprofitable VP player faster... if they play rated that is. So really the whole thing is targeted at identifying a very specific kind of AP, just seems to narrow to have much value.
There's way more profit in identifying slot ploppies who dump their whole bankroll every time they walk in.
A couple good points, the second one being a bit trickier for an operator to work out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Perignom
The casinos that sweat details like this are already doing it.
The casinos that don’t care enough or are too lazy to sweat these types of players would not care enough or would be too lazy to buy the software.
By casino you mean existing management and existing management is fleeting.Quote:
Originally Posted by DGenBen
Just saying..
The software shows good and bad. You can shift resources from low to high value customers. This solves both sides at once. Comp abuse but also under-comped.Quote:
Originally Posted by jdogBut again, why bother paying for an expensive system just to analyze VP play?? Because you already know how much you're making or losing on any given rated player over time. I guess maybe you could id an unprofitable VP player faster... if they play rated that is. So really the whole thing is targeted at identifying a very specific kind of AP, just seems to narrow to have much value.
There's way more profit in identifying slot ploppies who dump their whole bankroll every time they walk in.
A couple good points, the second one being a bit trickier for an operator to work out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Perignom
True but casinos tend to keep similar policies & procedures throughout management changes.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionBy casino you mean existing management and existing management is fleeting.Quote:
Originally Posted by DGenBen
Just saying..
They don’t typically do 180s every time they get a new manager(s)
New managers that want to change things can’t do it overnight.
It requires retraining employees, changing processes & procedures, getting buy ins from other departments the changes affect, etc, etc.
Boring discussion. The point of the study was made, understood, and accurately dissected within the first 8 or so posts.
The clear and overriding fact is, video poker players "grinding it out" for theoretical/real profits is mostly a thing of the past. Pay tables, comps, and slot club benefits have all become victims of casino belt tightening for normal players for a long time now.
A wing and a prayer are a vp player's allies these days. Use them wisely.
Yeah, Rob. Boring stuff. What we really need are some more pictures of you in the Newell at the dealership. Ha.
So funny that you couldn't put out enough of those, and with the as phony bill-of-sale, but, you had no pictures from before yours, supposedly, went into the shop for repairs, and, then, was sold to someone in Israel. You never though to take any pictures of it, until you brought it up here?
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Software company meeting with casino:
Casino: So we hear you have something new and exciting for us? We are always trying to keep up with the latest trends, like cashless gaming, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, whatchya got for us?
Software Co rep: Well you know those 10 Game Kings from the 1990s you keep in the back? We have software that analyzes exactly how well both of your regular VP players play their hands on those.
Now I've got one of the little people so flustered he steps out of character long enuf to post something actually readable--although typically full of wrong guesses and errors.Quote:
Originally Posted by Garnabby
I'll mess up that pudding in your head some more. It wasn't a "dealership"; it's a consignment center. And I used it because of location. Hardly worth a 110 mile RT drive thru the city for pics for the losers here. That wasn't the "bill of sale". It was the standard short form RV dealers prepare for out-of-state residents to complete registration & sales tax requirements at the dmv in their home state. Not sold to "someone in Israel"; he made a soft commitment but never came through. A couple from Prescott bought it. Pictures? Someone like you might sleep with pics of your Honda Civic. But around here, an RV is about as special as my extra large Trojans are on a 114 degree day in an unrefrigerated church.
You didn't do very well now, did you.
Maybe this'll get you people off your boring fat asses, while I look down on the result..... I know AQ won't be able to resist :) )
My point exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by DGenBen
And breaking news……….
They just rolled out new software to analyze table game players on Faro.
Fontainebleu and other casinos can already see which variant you're playing on multigame machines, and calculate theo accordingly. But they can't see skill yet, unless they're running this software or something similar.
I agree that identifying slot ploppies is the most lucrative. There are ways to do this which would spit out very accurate numbers regarding who is a complete plop and who is likely an AP. I'm not going to post my ideas here, for obvious reasons. But I can't imagine it would be too difficult to figure out.
But if they're going to comp VP players more than just a token amount, it really would help to have software analyzing who is good and who is bad.
Of course, the same might be able to be accomplished by providing a few high-return machines as honeypots, and making the rest shit. When you see a new player come in and play a high return machine, then disappear, you don't send them any offers. When you see a new player come in and play the shit paytables, you comp them normally. That's what Harrah's/Harvey's did for many years, and it was effective. Sure, people got Diamond/Seven Stars out of it fairly cheaply, but that isn't the company's biggest concern.