Un-Professional Sports Betting

Since I doubt that anyone on this forum (other than me) in the "Professional Sports Betting" thread has filed federal income taxes as a professional sports gambler, I figured I'd go the other way for a thread title, you know, like kewlJ.

I waited until the auto-profit had dissipated to report, but for those who like to "work off bonuses" while making dinner money or more, there was nothing better than the arbitrage for the Paul/Tyson fight. You could have gotten +180 at one offshore mentioned several times on this forum (and not just by me) while launching -170 the other way on the site where I finished 1st and then 17th back-to-back years in its NFL handicapping contest.

Those Paul/Tyson numbers held up for a week, which is unusual for a high-profile event taking actual money. If you didn't mind having some cash tied up until July, you scored, at minimum, a few free dinners.

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Originally Posted by redietz

If you didn't mind having some cash tied up until July, you scored, at minimum, a few free dinners.

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Good post thank you. For me personally, that's too far into the future. I like to keep my funds churning.

I don't know what's appropriate to post publicly. As I write, Jake Paul is -180 at DraftKings, and Mike Tyson is +190 at Circa NV. To bet both sides, you would need access to both NV and another state. I heard one of the offshores has Tyson +200, but I'm unable to confirm.

I have significant money on both sides of Jessica McCaskill/Lauren Price, coming up on the 11th. DraftKings has Price -340, against McCaskill +350 at BetOnline. Another major offshore has McCaskill higher than that.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by redietz

If you didn't mind having some cash tied up until July, you scored, at minimum, a few free dinners.

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Good post thank you. For me personally, that's too far into the future. I like to keep my funds churning.

I don't know what's appropriate to post publicly. As I write, Jake Paul is -180 at DraftKings, and Mike Tyson is +190 at Circa NV. To bet both sides, you would need access to both NV and another state. I heard one of the offshores has Tyson +200, but I'm unable to confirm.

I have significant money on both sides of Jessica McCaskill/Lauren Price, coming up on the 11th. DraftKings has Price -340, against McCaskill +350 at BetOnline. Another major offshore has McCaskill higher than that.

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I would fire, although Betonline may have a modest limit. One thing to check vis-a-vis Tyson are the disqualification protocols at each book. There was a riot at the MGM after the Tyson/Norris fight due to different rules at different sports books. People went nuts. I was there -- at the MGM, not the fight. There were gunshots; tables and chips got knocked over. Many unhappy campers. Some books had "no contest" rules that voided wins or losses by disqualification. Others treated a fighter being disqualified as a loss.

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Originally Posted by redietz

One thing to check vis-a-vis Tyson are the disqualification protocols at each book.

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I haven't had any traumatic outcomes yet along those lines. It will happen eventually.

I worry about screwing up when betting something other than cash. On free bets, I try to avoid tie potential, but I'm not sure what happens on a canceled event. For last weekend's Gomis/Silva UFC matchup, I had bets at four different Nevada books. Gomis showed up sick to the weigh-in, and the fight was scrapped. Three of the four books refunded me almost immediately, but Caesars kept me open for nearly 48 hours iirc until the afternoon of the scheduled start. I had submitted the bet using points (reward credits) in lieu of cash, and wasn't sure how they would handle it. They did finally refund the points back to my point balance.

This was available last night.

DraftKings:



offshore:



Price is becoming a bigger favorite. DraftKings is now +300/-400.

My first bets on the matchup were at +280 and -270.

Am I doing this right?

MLB today, Mariners at Twins. I don't see an arb available, but Pinnacle has +132/-143.

No-vig calculator indicates 136.5 as the midpoint.

If I bet the Twins at -134 (Atlantis NV), I should have an edge, yes?

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

Am I doing this right?

MLB today, Mariners at Twins. I don't see an arb available, but Pinnacle has +132/-143.

No-vig calculator indicates 136.5 as the midpoint.

If I bet the Twins at -134 (Atlantis NV), I should have an edge, yes?

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Honestly, this is why I keep saying that these are not coin flips. No formula/estimation/best guess merits this kind of "precision estimation." I'm not a mathematician, but there are terms for overstepping one's precision.

To put this in "it's not coin flipping" context, understand that MLB totals went on a +20 games over .500 or so binge early in the season. The totals were, one might say, too low. Then, as numbers adjusted, the totals went on an overpowering run, making up lost ground and rampaging to 25 games over .500 cumulatively Unders. Now, noticeable by totals during this past weekend, numbers have shifted down as a response to that run of Unders. My expectation is for Overs to do okay for a spell this week.

These shifts in book numbers are not random and not due to locations of games dramatically shifting from run-heavy ballparks to stingy ballparks and back. These are shifts in numbers based on results and action on those results.

This is why trying to make really precise calls is not mathematically or philosophically merited. These are not coin flips.

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Originally Posted by redietz

My expectation is for Overs to do okay for a spell this week.

This is why trying to make really precise calls is not mathematically or philosophically merited.

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All else equal, totals are a little more difficult imo because of the higher vig. Also the limits may be lower. Atlantis only allowed me $100 on an MLB total yesterday, whereas I was able to bet bigger on a money line.

For those wondering, the theory on using Pinnacle as a reference is that they need to be competent because they allow anyone to bet. The tighter the lines, the more competent they need to be. And the tightest lines are MLB money lines, usually. As you note, it's not an assurance of anything. But I'm trying to work within my skill set.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Since I doubt that anyone on this forum (other than me) in the "Professional Sports Betting" thread has filed federal income taxes as a professional sports gambler, I figured I'd go the other way for a thread title, you know, like kewlJ.

I waited until the auto-profit had dissipated to report, but for those who like to "work off bonuses" while making dinner money or more, there was nothing better than the arbitrage for the Paul/Tyson fight. You could have gotten +180 at one offshore mentioned several times on this forum (and not just by me) while launching -170 the other way on the site where I finished 1st and then 17th back-to-back years in its NFL handicapping contest.

Those Paul/Tyson numbers held up for a week, which is unusual for a high-profile event taking actual money. If you didn't mind having some cash tied up until July, you scored, at minimum, a few free dinners.

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Glad to see you’re making breakfast money.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by redietz

Since I doubt that anyone on this forum (other than me) in the "Professional Sports Betting" thread has filed federal income taxes as a professional sports gambler, I figured I'd go the other way for a thread title, you know, like kewlJ.

I waited until the auto-profit had dissipated to report, but for those who like to "work off bonuses" while making dinner money or more, there was nothing better than the arbitrage for the Paul/Tyson fight. You could have gotten +180 at one offshore mentioned several times on this forum (and not just by me) while launching -170 the other way on the site where I finished 1st and then 17th back-to-back years in its NFL handicapping contest.

Those Paul/Tyson numbers held up for a week, which is unusual for a high-profile event taking actual money. If you didn't mind having some cash tied up until July, you scored, at minimum, a few free dinners.

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Glad to see you’re making breakfast money.

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"Never Pass Up a Free Breakfast." Old Wise Jungle Saying

Actually, I have an issue with this proverb, as a vendor at the Chicago airport offered me free hash browns once when I ordered a breakfast. I had lost track of time and thought it was earlier than it was. It was actually the end of breakfast. Hours later, en route to Las Vegas, I spent half the flight in the restroom. I got so sick I started losing vision -- visual field started spotting black. I made it to the hotel, the Orleans I think, where I was supposed to meet clients for dinner. I sat with a cold towel on my head for an hour. Karen went downstairs to stall the clients while I gathered myself. I did make it downstairs eventually. So I suggest, as an addendum, "Never pass up a free breakfast unless it involves free hash browns scraped from a fryer at O'Hare at the end of breakfast hours."

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Originally Posted by redietz

You could have gotten +180 at one offshore mentioned several times on this forum (and not just by me) while launching -170 the other way on the site

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many bettors are doing that just about every day on different events - so many legal sports books now and they pretty much all have slightly different lines and the lines change quite often

a guy who posts at WOV does it very often

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also, the guy at WOV will very often get some kinna bonus or free play on one side of the arbitrage

because of fierce competition the books are now giving lots of free stuff - I think mainly at the smallish betting levels

but it's pretty easy for a small fish with discipline to beat the books now because of all the boosts, bonuses and free play

there is also discussion of books who hassle winning players and either refuse or drastically limit their bets - this prolly happens mostly to players betting fairly big

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I did it to myself.

One of my Nevada books had a slow reaction, and I was able to get Mets +149 at Cardinals. Everyone else was already down to +130 or less.

But having already drawn down my balance this morning playing small edges, I was handcuffed to a small amount. Nevada is somewhat primitive in funding options, so I couldn't reload at the click of a button.

How it started:

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

I was able to get Mets +149 at Cardinals.

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How it's going:
https://twitter.com/dave_unfiltered/...49569278906461

I was asked about daily "Grand Salami" betting in lieu of individual game betting of MLB Overs this week. I have a couple of comment/caveats. Now understand that I do not follow some crystalline strategy for this stuff; I'm largely winging it. So I'll admit I bet a "Grand Salami" in addition to the Tuesday individual game Overs but did not do it Wednesday. No real rhyme or reason. As far as "Grand Salami" betting goes, there are issues. Rarely a good value. Especially an issue when Colorado is playing at home and those numbers fold into the Grand Salami. That's a segue to the second set of issues. Do you automatically wager on Colorado Overs under the auspices of my recommendation? I have thus far for two days (split), but you have to evaluate each home Rockies game based on the number. The numbers presented this year have been wildly, wildly different. So while I have no problem taking Over 9 1/2 (today), Over 15 is not something I have any interest in.

Since account was his usual asinine, rude self, I'm going to pass on any further wagering comments/recommendations on this forum. You guys can catch me on various podcasts or in person in Las Vegas.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Since I doubt that anyone on this forum (other than me) in the "Professional Sports Betting" thread has filed federal income taxes as a professional sports gambler, I figured I'd go the other way for a thread title, you know, like kewlJ.

I waited until the auto-profit had dissipated to report, but for those who like to "work off bonuses" while making dinner money or more, there was nothing better than the arbitrage for the Paul/Tyson fight. You could have gotten +180 at one offshore mentioned several times on this forum (and not just by me) while launching -170 the other way on the site where I finished 1st and then 17th back-to-back years in its NFL handicapping contest.

Those Paul/Tyson numbers held up for a week, which is unusual for a high-profile event taking actual money. If you didn't mind having some cash tied up until July, you scored, at minimum, a few free dinners.

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Redietz' claim of filing as a "professional gambler" is unsubstantiated. And redietz had said repeatedly unsubstatnianted claims aren't worth a hill of beans compared to verified claims.

So should we believe him? Well, I'm inclined to believe him on this one because....

only idiots put "professional gambler" on tax returns. It's an oxymoron.

DraftKings now has Jake Paul at -170 vs Mike Tyson.

Best I can find for Tyson is +210 at Westgate/Superbook NV. Not available in other Superbook states.

Some of the offshores, including BetOnline, have Tyson +190 or higher.

Excellent scouting, Don. Did not know Westgate was taking a position like that. I need to track down the South Point odds. On many events, Westgate and South Point track similarly.

You've gotta fire on those. Can't pass up free money. Again, however, you must pin down the "no contest" and "disqualification" definitions at each book.

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Originally Posted by redietz

You've gotta fire on those.

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Here's the Westgate/Superbook view, incidentally:



I forgot which odds screener I was looking at, but South Point was indicated as not having the game available on its slate (via the app). I don't have a South Point account to view directly.

DraftKings is viewable online:



but I can't bet from my current (Nevada) location, and I'm limited with them anyway. They rarely allow me to exceed $100 on a bet.

I'm not surprised South Point has it off the board, given the date of the fight. South Point, at least up until and including last season, is loathe to post college football futures before July because anything can and will happen in the months leading up to the season, especially with mass transfers and the ramifications. Plus SP takes real money, so they have reason to post numbers in a serious fashion. They're managing things the way I would, so I really can't complain about it.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Plus SP takes real money, so they have reason to post numbers in a serious fashion. They're managing things the way I would, so I really can't complain about it.

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Indeed.

I can't recall ever encountering a limit on the Westgate app, but my bets are usually under $500. Some of the less prominent Nevada apps have limited me as low as $100. Atlantis and Baldini's come to mind. Hopefully those are just their general limits rather than "my" targeted limits.

I'm learning a new thing: MLB series betting.

Caesars has Angels +110 vs Cardinals.

Offshore has Cardinals +100 at multiple sites including BetOnline.

But I'm keeping my bets contained because I'm afraid of screwing up.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

But I'm keeping my bets contained because I'm afraid of screwing up.

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I've done it before. I think I'm arbed, but in fact I bet the series on one side, and an individual game on the other :(.

Today's middle:

NCAA baseball, FL Atlantic at FL Gulf Coast

OVER 13.5 -120
-and-
UNDER 15 -115

I require a 14.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

Today's middle:

NCAA baseball, FL Atlantic at FL Gulf Coast

OVER 13.5 -120
-and-
UNDER 15 -115

I require a 14.

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Don't be greedy. A 15 would be fine. I can honestly say I have never tried to middle a college baseball total, but this looks like a decent shot.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Don't be greedy. A 15 would be fine.

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I could contain my disappointment at a 15.

I'm guessing here at my assessment of being a good bet. It's unfortunate that most sportsbooks ignore college baseball, but last year I found some arbs available during the playoffs into the CWS. Hopefully again this time around.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by redietz

Don't be greedy. A 15 would be fine.

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I could contain my disappointment at a 15.

I'm guessing here at my assessment of being a good bet. It's unfortunate that most sportsbooks ignore college baseball, but last year I found some arbs available during the playoffs into the CWS. Hopefully again this time around.

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My best guess is that it's an okay wager. Not great, obviously, stuck with the -120 on one side, but I think it's just good enough to be worth pulling the trigger.

I'm guilty of firing at some UFL lines and MLs that are, from a sheer value standpoint, questionable. But I have hit them, middles-wise, enough to make UFL profitable. One advantage has been the fact that there is no kicking PAT, so much of the value-sucking, distorted buying-off-three stuff doesn't come into play very often. I did hit a ML/spread middle that was a three, though, last week. It involved a +3 weighted at -118, not buying any half points, so it was okay. The MLs move drastically for some games; there are opportunities if you shop 'til you drop.

The good thing about the UFL PATs is that no sports book is going to re-adjust what you pay for buying off various non-three half points just for some 10-game minor league.

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Originally Posted by redietz

My best guess is that it's an okay wager.

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But I have hit them, middles-wise, enough to make UFL profitable.

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Did I accidentally bet the UFL :confused:?



Gulf Coast scored the 14 points I needed in one half-inning!

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by redietz

My best guess is that it's an okay wager.

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But I have hit them, middles-wise, enough to make UFL profitable.

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Did I accidentally bet the UFL :confused:?



Gulf Coast scored the 14 points I needed in one half-inning!

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What the hell was that!?!

Wow. Not sure how long that baby took; concession stands likely did well.

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Originally Posted by redietz

concession stands likely did well.

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Elapsed time 3 hours 25 minutes, according to news reports.

Here's the climax of the 14-run half-inning:

https://twitter.com/FGCU_Baseball/st...78525260300554

Remarkable camera work. I felt like I was there.

I think I stepped in poo.

MLB Pirates/Brewers, these are my bets for 1st 5 innings:

OVER 4 -120
*and*
UNDER 4.5 -110

Unabated has similar scenarios indicated around 0.5% house edge or a little less, so I'm probably relying on luck here.

Still waiting for UFL lines to post. Next games Saturday 18th.

First note: Don (or anyone), if you have an account at Northbet, their Grand Salami for MLB today is 50 1/2 runs, but it is +110. Everywhere else I see is normal -- that is like -108 at Bookmaker for the same number. For those who like snipering questionable but obvious edges of a sort (note my sneaky reference to edge-sorting, a movie coming soon), this would fill the bill. I think the total is right on the button, but I put lunch money on it anyway at the +110. I weigh too much anyway; always good to miss a lunch.

I'm off for lunch but will comment on UFL when I return.

Also, I took longshot stabs at a couple of golfers in the PGA, just based on generous numbers and they are decent and Scheffler is having a black hole effect on odds the way Tiger Woods once did. "Anyone but Scheffler" may be okay for awhile.

Thanks for the Salami tip. I don't have an account, and didn't see it until after deadline anyway.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Also, I took longshot stabs at a couple of golfers in the PGA, just based on generous numbers and they are decent and Scheffler is having a black hole effect on odds the way Tiger Woods once did. "Anyone but Scheffler" may be okay for awhile.

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I got stuck in the mud. Initially, this was in the Westgate app:



A very wide arb was available with DraftKings -- I think something like -165 on the UNDER 271.5. Not accessible from my location, but I did have a smaller arb playable on the 36-hole cut. However I was bothered by the terminology. Some sites mention # of holes; others don't. So am I really betting on the same thing at both sites?

On the cut bet, Westgate then shifted the line twice -- finishing at +110/-130. So I ended up arbing the other way around:

36-hole cut UNDER 143.5 -130 (Westgate)
*and*
cut OVER 143.5 +150 (BetOnline)

Do I need to worry about terminology in this scenario? A cut should always happen at 36 holes imo, but weird things happen.

Incidentally, I had the worst possible outcome this morning on Tiger. For a promo, I did a small bet on OVER 72.5 first round. But I like Tiger and wish him the best. As it happened, he 3-putted 17 and 18 to finish at 72. So a crappy result as a fan, but I still lost the bet :mad:.

So I have Finau and Justin Thomas at 60-something to 1; Hovland and Cam Smith at 50-something to 1. Finau is always feast or famine. Technically, it's a "home game" for JT, but that won't be worth much. Lunch money on them.

Regarding the UFL. I have run into offshores making week-to-week changes in when and whether they allow buying of half points. NorthBet has stayed steady, but also posts lines later than others. Other places have vacillated on the half point buying allowances and dates available. Some won't allow buying of half points.

Also, there were more simultaneous differences early in the season. Now there's more conservatism, although you can still see numbers moving in slo-mo like an odometer. Northbet has capped betting at $250 at a time, which is real low for them. Suggests Northbet has gone a little paranoid -- maybe a management change? Anyway, that's it. You can still fire most places.

A little brag time. I tried to fire on Birmingham to win the thing early in the season. Tried to get $500, which seemed reasonable, down a couple of places, but the conservatism was ridiculous. Some places limited me to $200. Unbelievable. Anyway, it was the right thing -- Birmingham was +400 and +275 at the times I took them. Barely worth the effort for the money I got down, but all you can do is what's allowed. I don't even like Martinez as starter, but they know what they're doing. Probably have the best coach for this league. Here's a tidbit. I went to the Hard Rock in North Carolina and tried to bet UFL straight and futures. They were not available at all. I found that very odd. Just post odds and take stupidly low limits, like some offshores.

I am not qualified to give opinions on the terminology of the golf betting. I always say to pin them down yourself. A partner/friend of mine, who was a high-ranking amateur tennis player in his age bracket, ran into some issues betting tennis and sorting through the different definitions of "retiring" from a match (aka quitting). He had some arbitrage shots that went south because, as in boxing's "no decision" definitions, not everyone is using the same rules and regs and you can get caught flat-footed. I wouldn't deign to offer advice or claim to know the definitions.

Last note on the golf. Scheffler is a monster. LOL. We're four holes in, and he looks like a different species. I'm not sure Tiger Woods had a better dominant streak than this. On one hand, those +350 numbers to win a major are asinine (Tiger was +700 in majors at his most dominant, except lower for The Masters). On the other hand, Scheffler is smokin'!

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Originally Posted by redietz

I have run into offshores making week-to-week changes in when and whether they allow buying of half points.

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I primarily bet from Nevada, and we just don't have those features in our apps, afaik. Slowly the operators are upgrading though as they progress toward national standardization.

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Originally Posted by redietz

On the other hand, Scheffler is smokin'!

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"First hole as a dad." I thought I hated journalists enough.

The UFL has been an ATM for many players this year. It also feels like a ticking timebomb to me. Only a couple of the teams actually draw fans and I wouldn't be surprised if they are actually giving tickets away. The league is clearly a made for TV venture and more specifically a made for online gambling venture.

The JonTay Porter incident, is everything all the sports have been worried about with the expansion of gambling, and it just feels like that incident is the tip of what is to come.

For anyone not familiar (and not interested in looking it up), JonTay Porter is/was a nothing NBA player permanently banned from the NBA in April. He wagered on the under on some prop bets involving himself, like points scored, and then took himself out of the game, claiming illness, ensuring the under hit.

There is going to be more and more of this crap. Again, just what the major sports leagues were always so worried about.

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Originally Posted by redietz

UFL

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

UFL

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Which book posts the lines first?

DraftKings has Australian football games out to the 25th, but UFL is still blank for the 18th.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by redietz

UFL

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

UFL

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Which book posts the lines first?

DraftKings has Australian football games out to the 25th, but UFL is still blank for the 18th.

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I haven't seen any numbers this week. Between the teams switching QBs and the weather, I don't blame them.

UFL lines are off and running.

DraftKings had Michigan -7.5, but has shifted to -8.5. Caesars has Memphis +9.

Caesars has some outlier totals, particularly DC/St Louis UNDER 45.5. The others seem to be at 44.5.

I'm already in with a starter position.

Arlington +180 Circa
*and*
San Antonio -180 Caesars

Just for the reward points.

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Originally Posted by redietz

So I have Finau and Justin Thomas at 60-something to 1; Hovland and Cam Smith at 50-something to 1. Finau is always feast or famine. Technically, it's a "home game" for JT, but that won't be worth much. Lunch money on them.

Regarding the UFL. I have run into offshores making week-to-week changes in when and whether they allow buying of half points. NorthBet has stayed steady, but also posts lines later than others. Other places have vacillated on the half point buying allowances and dates available. Some won't allow buying of half points.

Also, there were more simultaneous differences early in the season. Now there's more conservatism, although you can still see numbers moving in slo-mo like an odometer. Northbet has capped betting at $250 at a time, which is real low for them. Suggests Northbet has gone a little paranoid -- maybe a management change? Anyway, that's it. You can still fire most places.

A little brag time. I tried to fire on Birmingham to win the thing early in the season. Tried to get $500, which seemed reasonable, down a couple of places, but the conservatism was ridiculous. Some places limited me to $200. Unbelievable. Anyway, it was the right thing -- Birmingham was +400 and +275 at the times I took them. Barely worth the effort for the money I got down, but all you can do is what's allowed. I don't even like Martinez as starter, but they know what they're doing. Probably have the best coach for this league. Here's a tidbit. I went to the Hard Rock in North Carolina and tried to bet UFL straight and futures. They were not available at all. I found that very odd. Just post odds and take stupidly low limits, like some offshores.

I am not qualified to give opinions on the terminology of the golf betting. I always say to pin them down yourself. A partner/friend of mine, who was a high-ranking amateur tennis player in his age bracket, ran into some issues betting tennis and sorting through the different definitions of "retiring" from a match (aka quitting). He had some arbitrage shots that went south because, as in boxing's "no decision" definitions, not everyone is using the same rules and regs and you can get caught flat-footed. I wouldn't deign to offer advice or claim to know the definitions.

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Well, for those who ignored the sage wisdom of the author of the "professional sports betting thread" and came instead to this thread for tips (as opposed to gyps), Post 34 featured a helpful tidbit.

If you have the Stallions to win the UFL, as I do, you might want to consider your options for hedging next week. First off, understand that the title game is being played at the home of the Battlehawks , who lead the league (by far) in attendance, racking up 30-some thousand every week without the padding. So you want San Antonio to beat St. Louis tonight. One hedge to consider would be to open a teaser with St. Louis, knowing a St. Louis win is not what you want, and creating an open teaser where you could theoretically have San Antonio win but not cover the +3 or +4 you'd have open with the Battlehawks. If San Antonio blows them out, you get the more favorable line by far versus Birmingham/St. Louis, and you could hedge that as you choose next week. I'd consider this for 10 to 20% of the future win at stake.

The other part of my post that was spot on was me not loving Adrien Martinez as Birmingham QB. The man is likely going to be named league MVP, but he was pulled in the third quarter of the semi game because (1) he ain't that good and (2) he was sucking. So Corral was inserted and saved the day in a comfortable fashion. Give Skip Holtz credit. Not many coaches would yank a league MVP in a semi-final playoff game, but Holz knows what he's looking at as games unfold.

I didn't really like Martinez as the starting QB, he winds up league MVP, and he gets yanked when the chips are down. Sometimes I halfway know whereof I speak.

If anybody took my rare but accurate advice, send me a Starbucks gift card for a sawbuck. Those $6.51 medium coffees at the Golden Nugget Starbucks have gotten on my last nerve.

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Originally Posted by redietz

If anybody took my rare but accurate advice, send me a Starbucks gift card for a sawbuck.

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No, I bet one other UFL game on the 19th for a small arb, but nothing since then.

Lots of French Open tennis arbs in the early stages, but later they dried up.

Heavy college baseball lately.

This morning, I'm waiting for NASCAR matchups to post. Yesterday I bet a Belmont horse matchup, and the (offshore) ticket only listed my horse but not the opponent. Live chat said it's supposed to be like that.

The thing that most brings the limits of one's perceptions into focus with the UFL is that arguably the most dominant, flashy QB, the Birmingham starter Martinez, has no actual shot with an NFL team outside of third-and-short or goal line "Wildcat" QB plays. While several others, the St. Louis QB, the Birmingham backup, the Arlington starter, could find legitimate backup roles on NFL teams. The Arlington starter should be a QBs coach somewhere, as he does an amazing job considering he has no arm. Usually you can't get away with not much of an arm, but his decision-making is startlingly fast and almost always correct. His theory of what to do on a play is pristine. He can't always get it done, but he knows the theory.

I just found the profit/loss button on my DK accounts so I’ve never thought of tax filings. I was shocked to find out after 3 years of betting small stakes pretty much every day I’m a winner on both my accounts on DK.

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Originally Posted by Jaysunjm

I was shocked to find out after 3 years of betting small stakes pretty much every day I’m a winner on both my accounts on DK.

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Well done. Are you playing the promotions significantly, or is that just routine, unboosted betting?

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jaysunjm

I was shocked to find out after 3 years of betting small stakes pretty much every day I’m a winner on both my accounts on DK.

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Well done. Are you playing the promotions significantly, or is that just routine, unboosted betting?

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I think the BIG question is will the Celtics have an actual sweep tonight or a Gentleman's sweep, where they sort of allow the Mavs to win game 4 before finishing them in Boston?

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I think the BIG question is will the Celtics have an actual sweep tonight or a Gentleman's sweep, where they sort of allow the Mavs to win game 4 before finishing them in Boston?

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Lately I've had more WNBA than NBA bets, but I wonder if your hypothesis may already be factored into the odds. Mavericks are only about a 1-point dawg. Excuse me, dog.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I think the BIG question is

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what new whopper UNKewlJ will come up with next. He's obviously not betting a nickel anywhere (doesn't have two nickels to rub together) just mouthing nonsense

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Originally Posted by Bosox

like a fucken sick talking parrot.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Next time you want to tell a whopper, talk to me and lets walk through it. I'll only charge you $200.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I think the BIG question is will the Celtics have an actual sweep tonight or a Gentleman's sweep, where they sort of allow the Mavs to win game 4 before finishing them in Boston?

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Lately I've had more WNBA than NBA bets, but I wonder if your hypothesis may already be factored into the odds. Mavericks are only about a 1-point dawg. Excuse me, dog.

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Last nights game certainly looked like the classic, team rolling over, for a game gentleman's sweep type thing. That is not to say the Celtics or any other team really rolled over. They don't. They are just uninspired. If form hold, the Celts will wrap it up Monday in Boston.

I was torn over whether the Celts would be of that uninspired mindset or not. Part of me thought they might be playing for the sweep. So I didn't bet the game.

I am currently sitting on a near dead series bet with the Mavs. So I have that to look forward to should they catch fire. ;) THAT bet was actually about the first two games. I was looking for the Mavs to steal a game in Boston (as occurred both previous rounds) and then I could have hedged with Celtics guaranteeing a decent profit. Did work out. Sometimes you are the bug, sometimes the windshield. :rolleyes:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

That is not to say the Celtics or any other team really rolled over. They don't. They are just uninspired.

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You had the right idea. Judging by the score, they weren't even spired.

Boy, I am really disappointed. I expected mickey crimm to sing my praises for having Birmingham at +400 and +280 to win the UFL. I guess he must be at church today.

That's what I love about the Witteles version of VCT. Lots of objective reporting from the anonymous. I really do miss Alan Mendelson.

Have a good one, gentlemen.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Boy, I am really disappointed. I expected mickey crimm to sing my praises for having Birmingham at +400 and +280 to win the UFL. I guess he must be at church today.

That's what I love about the Witteles version of VCT. Lots of objective reporting from the anonymous. I really do miss Alan Mendelson.

Have a good one, gentlemen.

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I didn't watch the game. I have lost interest in the UFL. I will get to that in a minute. But red, please post/link where you predicted this (because I don't see it in about 30 seconds of looking (not saying you didn't), and I will be more than delighted to offer my congratulations to you.

There are people that claim you can make money betting Nascar and Golf and tennis and UFC. Those things don't interest me, so I don't bet on them. I guess if I was trying to be a professional sports bettor I would try to find an advantage everywhere, whether it interested me or not. But that is not what I am doing. I like my sports and have done some losing sports betting for years as my recreational vice. Last year I decided to make the "jump" and get into the bonus whoring game, which would allow me to make money, while betting and watching the sports I like, as long as I am able to keep getting decent bonus offers.

I do love football. It is just a head of college basketball as my favorite sports and teams. So after the superbowl, I tried to get into this new UFL and bet 5 or 6 weeks. But then I stopped. I just don't like that brand of football. It is really a level below 2 steps below the college majors. A couple of the teams have good fan bases, but many games are played in mostly empty, even smaller stadiums. It just feels like a made for TV sports. So I lost interest.

That is just me, but again, if you link to where you predicted the outcome I will offer my heaty congrats. hell...don't even bother. I just do it now. If you picked that outcome ahead of time, congrats to you Red. :)

I believe Redietz' strategy is to conceal his need for praise while attempting to satisfy it by pretending that he is expressing his disdain for someone when his real purpose is to brag about something.

Thus all of the theatrical "I'm astonished, absolutely floored, that you don't know this thing I know!", and his affectation of contempt for a forum that he has repeatedly pledged to quit and yet cannot help himself from returning to as soon as he thinks he has something worth bragging about.

Does Red do some bragging? Sure he does so what? This is supposed to be a gambling forum where people can share some if their experiences.

It is funny that when it is someone you have decided you don't like, you call it bragging as if it is unacceptable. But when Mickeycrimm, axelwolf, Dan Stuff or even James Grosjean and Munchkin (on other forums) share experiences, no one calls it bragging.

I appreciate hearing real gambling experiences from everyone. Professional players down to recreational. Do some only share the good or winning? Absolutely. Does Red tell us if contests he does well but no mention the 3122 place finish in another? Of course.

For the record I try to share my good experiences, the winning as well as bad, losing and backoffs/heat. If others only want to tell us about the winning....so what? Aren't we all smart enough to figure out that they lose too?

*eye roll*

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Boy, I am really disappointed. I expected mickey crimm to sing my praises for having Birmingham at +400 and +280 to win the UFL. I guess he must be at church today.

That's what I love about the Witteles version of VCT. Lots of objective reporting from the anonymous. I really do miss Alan Mendelson.

Have a good one, gentlemen.

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I'm not a football handicapper or a sports bettor, nor am I the "author" of the Professional Sports Betting thread. I created that thread to highlight and follow professional sports bettors as a human interest more than anything else. I've always been fascinated by gambling strategy in all the various forms. But I don't participate in all of them. I've never given any advice on sports betting in that thread.

Your jealousy of those professionals that were highlighted pretty much bombed you out of the thread. Such a shame. You could have been a contributor like them but you chose to ridicule them and VCT instead. Small minded.

So I don't follow your speculations....other than to say I can hear the same shit you spout on ESPN. Your real talent lies in the false premises you create to support your false narratives about others.

However, if you accept my 2 point challenge I will then bet sports, at least for the NFL season. Even a novice knows I will have the edge against you. You know it too.

Polish your lucky silver dollar. Flip it a few times for practice.
You now have the edge against redietz.

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Originally Posted by cyberbabble

Polish your lucky silver dollar. Flip it a few times for practice.
You now have the edge against redietz.

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Alas, there have been many third-party (as in not me/not client) monitors of what I have done. There was, drum roll please:

1) "Tipsters or Gypsters?" published annually, with monthly handicapper updates, for 20 of my years.
2) The Buffalo Cable Handicap (TV show; I think I finished 6th that year).
3) The Absolute Truth (a monitoring publication)
4) The Sports Monitor (after "Tipsters or Gypsters?" ceased publishing).
5) Handicappers' Report Card (managed a 66-34 ATS record among 30-some handicappers one year; did not finish first).
6) The Wise Guys Contest (two football games a week, every week, for 30 years). Have either the best or second best overall record for that span of time.
7) LineMasters Bowl Contest (private contest; Westgate soon-to-be Hall of Fame sports book manager Jay Kornegay was in it).
8) Who's Who in Sports Gambling (Hall Publishing, 1984; I was invited because I was monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" Born-again Rick Hall vetted me personally.
9) Wise Guys record was published weekly in Playbook newsletter, which was on newsstands nationally for 30 years.
10) Hired by Billy Walters, who tends to not hire coin flippers.

Thanks for the opportunity, cyber. In the interests of expediency, I kept the list to a Dave Letterman-ish 10. The Shenendoah Evening Herald did a profile; so did the Pulitzer-Prize winner Pottsville Republican 15 years later. Op eds regarding gambling were published in the Centre Daily Times (Penn State) and quoted in other papers. Published in The Humanist ("Scientists, Gamblers, and Magicians"). Gave a paper ("The Gambling Personality: An Interactional Approach") at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking. Was invited, but declined, to write further for a start-up gambling academic journal. Was contacted by Allen and Yarnow, literary agents, about doing a book after my Humanist article was published.

Now pardon me, I need to visit the bank so I don't run out of coins.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cyberbabble

Polish your lucky silver dollar. Flip it a few times for practice.
You now have the edge against redietz.

---

Alas, there have been many third-party (as in not me/not client) monitors of what I have done. There was, drum roll please:

1) "Tipsters or Gypsters?" published annually, with monthly handicapper updates, for 20 of my years.
2) The Buffalo Cable Handicap (TV show; I think I finished 6th that year).
3) The Absolute Truth (a monitoring publication)
4) The Sports Monitor (after "Tipsters or Gypsters?" ceased publishing).
5) Handicappers' Report Card (managed a 66-34 ATS record among 30-some handicappers one year; did not finish first).
6) The Wise Guys Contest (two football games a week, every week, for 30 years). Have either the best or second best overall record for that span of time.
7) LineMasters Bowl Contest (private contest; Westgate soon-to-be Hall of Fame sports book manager Jay Kornegay was in it).
8) Who's Who in Sports Gambling (Hall Publishing, 1984; I was invited because I was monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" Born-again Rick Hall vetted me personally.
9) Wise Guys record was published weekly in Playbook newsletter, which was on newsstands nationally for 30 years.
10) Hired by Billy Walters, who tends to not hire coin flippers.

Thanks for the opportunity, cyber. In the interests of expediency, I kept the list to a Dave Letterman-ish 10. The Shenendoah Evening Herald did a profile; so did the Pulitzer-Prize winner Pottsville Republican 15 years later. Op eds regarding gambling were published in the Centre Daily Times (Penn State) and quoted in other papers. Published in The Humanist ("Scientists, Gamblers, and Magicians"). Gave a paper ("The Gambling Personality: An Interactional Approach") at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking. Was invited, but declined, to write further for a start-up gambling academic journal. Was contacted by Allen and Yarnow, literary agents, about doing a book after my Humanist article was published.

Now pardon me, I need to visit the bank so I don't run out of coins.

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you have many, many posts here and elsewhere indicating how great and famous you were as a sports handicapper

but I googled with your name many different ways and nothing other than posts by you on forums like this or about you on forums like this ever came up

that's not to say I disbelieve you - it just seems strange

I would like to read the stories about you in The Shenandoah Evening Herald and the Pottsville Republican - that would be very interesting to me and perhaps to others

can you please post a link_________?_____________thanks

if these stories were before the internet I would guess you kept hard copies and could take a picture and least post some of the stories


.

First of all, you won't find a single post among the "many, many" of mine that refers to me as either "great" or "famous." So that is a problem with your summary. If you don't report the truth, why should someone respond? Slopping around with subjective inaccurate summaries while getting facts wrong does no one a service. A real problem, actually, from a journalistic perspective. It's a problem because if you think Google is a substitute for actual research, you are sorely mistaken. Actual research requires phone calls, emails, checking sources and rechecked sources, then doing followup. It requires journalism and scholarship, not hitting a couple of buttons. The problem with this forum is meta. -- the previous owner was a journalist. Whatever his gambling deficiencies, he had an idea how research should function.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

First of all, you won't find a single post among the "many, many" of mine that refers to me as either "great" or "famous." So that is a problem with your summary. If you don't report the truth, why should someone respond? Slopping around with subjective inaccurate summaries while getting facts wrong does no one a service. A real problem, actually, from a journalistic perspective. It's a problem because if you think Google is a substitute for actual research, you are sorely mistaken. Actual research requires phone calls, emails, checking sources and rechecked sources, then doing followup. It requires journalism and scholarship, not hitting a couple of buttons. The problem with this forum is meta. -- the previous owner was a journalist. Whatever his gambling deficiencies, he had an idea how research should function.

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He was also doing some scammy infomercial shit on YouTube, so, yeah.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Actual research requires phone calls, emails, checking sources and rechecked sources, then doing followup. why should someone respond ?

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say what_______?


I'm hardly going to do actual research

I'm not planning to write a book about you

I was just interested in actually seeing some links or other reports to what you claimed which should be quite easy for you to provide assuming your claims are accurate

but you're not willing to provide them

that's fine - time for me to move on down the road

this is no big deal to me - I was just curious

have a great day

.
oh, and btw - Norm Wattenberger posted "and Google doesn't seem to know who you are either" on his site after you made some claims there - I can post the link if anybody wants to see it


you posted "why should someone respond?"__________good question_________since you did respond____________maybe you should answer your own question


I would say that anyone who posts about their accomplishments a great many times in several different forums is implying that they are great




.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Actual research requires phone calls, emails, checking sources and rechecked sources, then doing followup. why should someone respond ?

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say what_______?


I'm hardly going to do actual research

I'm not planning to write a book about you

I was just interested in actually seeing some links or other reports to what you claimed which should be quite easy for you to provide assuming your claims are accurate

but you're not willing to provide them

that's fine - time for me to move on down the road

this is no big deal to me - I was just curious

have a great day

.
oh, and btw - Norm Wattenberger posted "and Google doesn't seem to know who you are either" on his site after you made some claims there - I can post the link if anybody wants to see it


you posted "why should someone respond?"__________good question_________since you did respond____________maybe you should answer your own question


I would say that anyone who posts about their accomplishments a great many times in several different forums is implying that they are great




.

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"I googled him" is the biggest tip-off that a person has no interest in actually learning something.

How many pages of "Google" regarding the inestimable Robert E. Dietz did you read? Two? Five maybe? Spend an hour or two and read 10? Fifty? A hundred?

And this is why, not even accounting for the fact that you can pay for google search consequences, that the phrase "I googled you" means something slightly more than nothing.

My brother-in-law, Bob Bruno (yes, you can probably google him as an author on Amazon), ran a chain of private investigative firms and was the biggest PI in New Mexico. My nephew, Dylan Dietz, is specializing in online forensics at Bloomsburg State. Whether you show up on Google is partly a matter of choice. You can pay booster companies a couple thousand to attempt to show on Page One for most searchers. Or you can do the reverse and try to scrub yourself. When "Bob Dietz" doesn't show, it could be for the following reasons:

1) Complete fabrication.
2) You haven't searched enough Google pages.
3) He's been scrubbed (there's really no such thing as a complete scrubbing, but they work).
4) He doesn't have the couple thousand to spend to boost himself to the front of Google.
5) He doesn't give a damn.

Your conclusion, of course, is your own.

Now, if you want me to mail you copies of the interviews and such, my address and email have been posted on here a dozen times, but I'll repeat them. This is how adults operated through much of US history. It's how academics work today (unless you're in China, pretty much). Shoot me an address, and I'll send hard copies, assuming I can find a couple copies in my mess. Or I'll photograph them and send an email when I have time. The anonymity clown act employed by most online posters is ridiculous. It suggests rampant paranoia, and it suggests online personas that aren't anything like the real people doing the play-acting online. It also suggests laziness and Google algorithms play an essential part in your personal data base and how you deal with the world.


Bob Dietz
1412 Forrest Dale Lane
Johnson City, TN 37604

Drop me a line or drop by some time.

Integritysports@aol.com

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Drop me a line or drop by some time.

Integritysports@aol.com

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no thanks
I asked you to post something here which is where you have made your many claims
why should I have to do any more work_______?
you don't want to post them here after all your many claims here - so be it
I'm done with this

.