The Wizard's Half Point Parlay Card Threads

It's been 11 years ago that Shack started that first thread teaching everyone on WoV about the NFL half point parlay cards. He estimated it was worth at least 30% EV but actually out performed that.

The half point cards come out early in the week so he was working the discrepancies in the parlay card lines and the board lines late in the week. Everyone knows the line is sharper later in the week.

He started out trying to get $100 cards in but to much rejection so dropped down to $50 a pop and trying to get in 10 to 15 cards per week betting 5 and 6 teamers. Sometimes only successful at getting in maybe 7 or eight. However, there were weeks where he didn't bet much because there wasn't much line movement.

For the 2013 season he made about 17K in cashes on about 10K in bets.

For 2014 he made 20K in cashes for 11.6K in bets.

He didn't publish his results for 2015 but had a big year because one week he cashed every ticket for 25 or 50 for 1. All it takes is one big week.

One of the main concerns in the threads by him and his followers was how tough it was to get the books to take the bets. They had to move around getting a few tickets in here and there.

In 2016 He had one week where his picks went 7-0. Late in the season Shack was complaining about not being able to get more than a few cards in every week. He said it wasn't worth his time. So 2016 was his last year with it.

Shack got many thanks from those that followed his lead. Axel could tell us more about what happened.

2013/2014 seasons
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...-parlay-cards/

2015 season
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...s-2015-season/

2016 season:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...s-2016-season/

This is the part where I mention:

1) People have been doing this for decades.
2) Boyd was the target in the 80's and '90's, with bettors descending on the various Boyd properties simultaneously (there were a half dozen, including the Stardust).
3) I have a couple of personal stories. I did this myself, not as some big "AP" move, but because what else are you going to do once you have your seat at the Stardust and have two to three hours to kill?
4) The books are well aware of this, but there is no real self-defense other than to limit amounts (as they did with me). Now bear in mind, this was the '80's. They would actually call "key" and review my cards whenever I'd turn them in, regardless of how small the amounts. They limited me to $50 a card at the Stardust, with the manager checking me out at the windows.
5) It does no "APs" any favors to broadcast this and publicize it via websites. Why do that? It's the same kind of self-congratulatory, screw-the-other-players move as when "Stanford Wong" publicized the vulnerabilities/angles in teaser betting. All it did was screw the savvy bettors so someone could take "credit" for knowing it.
6) There is actually a somewhat more sophisticated version of doing this (still simple, though) that most folks who were doing it employed during the 80's and 90's. The sophisticated version attacked college football lines more often than NFL. That's what I did. It was better than this. I think (no, I know), that 30% profit figure is a real reach.
7) Finally, you should really not be assigning "EV" to this except in past tense, as the effectiveness of this changes year-to-year, often depending on rule changes, of which there have been many since the 80's. Trying to calculate "EV" for this going forward is a mental/psychological trap assigning more abilities and control to the bettor than actually exist. You can presume and assume, but in the real world, occasionally that gets you clobbered.

An aside -- what I just wrote in #7 above is also what limits the utility of Billy Walters' charts (employed in other of mickey's posts). Those charts use historical data. Mickey treats it as if rules haven't changed and those charts aren't specifically dated. Big hole in mickey's logic. Again, you can use them in past tense, but you have no business projecting much of anything from them. So are they useful? In a very crude, overall way for civilians maybe, but not in any current sense.

And finally, I wrote this same spiel some years back regarding the same topic, probably on WOV, which I'm sure endeared me to Shackleford greatly. Mickey must not recall. I suspect mickey's memory is not what it was. But neither is mine. Coffee helps, mickey. Coffee helps. Those $6.51 coffees from the Golden Nugget serve a purpose in our waning years.


P.S. You just learned more in this post than by reading the sum total of what Shack and mickey combined know about this subject. Unless I'm getting a serious stipend, that's it for me. My time has value.

P.S.S. I had a client/partner in the 80's, a Jewish accountant from New York, who flew to Las Vegas each week just to do this for thousands of dollars each weekend. He would actually fill out the tickets, which took a good eight hours, and then fly out. He used this and another, slightly different strategy. He was the guy who entered The Castaways (forerunner to the SuperBook contest) and who I took over for about two-thirds of the way through.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...castaways.html

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Originally Posted by redietz

P.S. You just learned more in this post than by reading the sum total of what Shack and mickey combined know about this subject. Unless I'm getting a serious stipend, that's it for me. My time has value.

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No. None of this was actionable. Although I learned about the Stardust (or whatever) and I do find such stories interesting to read on a forum, please don't kid yourself. Even you teased stories you COULD tell. haha ! But no actual story. Just a bunch of stuff trying to prove how knowledgeable you are but without actually demonstrating knowledge.

Also, please don't tell us nonsense such as your time has value. You need all that time to plan your next LV trip in a year?!?!

Mickeycrimm, do you think the fact that Shackleford is well known and easily identified worked against him? Might it have made a difference if he had someone else try to get some of his cards in?

Follow up question: If in fact the Wiz is a successful AP, why isn't he barred from play in LV casinos?

Obviously the suits in the casinos are aware of who he is.

Ever notice that redietz always jumps in and takes credit for what other people have done. And blows the shit out of his own horn telling everyone how good he iss and how he was crushing that same thing 40 years ago. He wants you to believe he's knowledgeable on the subject but he never divulges any knowledge. It's all "I did this and I did that." Idiocy.

Ditz disputes the "at least 30% edge" Shack claimed. Ditz says he absolutely knows that's to high. Yet the empirical evidence is that in the 4 years Shack did it his lowest year was 172% return.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Mickeycrimm, do you think the fact that Shackleford is well known and easily identified worked against him? Might it have made a difference if he had someone else try to get some of his cards in?

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Axel had been doing the half point parlay cards for years by 2013 when Shack decided to create a thread on it. Axel also said he had gotten down to where none of the books would take his action. He and Shack both said they would zero in on who was putting the cards in. So they would use beards to get them in. But even that got to where it wouldn't work.

And the books would disqualify teams that were "on the hot side."

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Follow up question: If in fact the Wiz is a successful AP, why isn't he barred from play in LV casinos?

Obviously the suits in the casinos are aware of who he is.

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Sometime in the last year (maybe 6 months ago) wizard mentioned to me that he used to count cards fairly regularly (which I wasn't really aware of) but that he doesn't do so much anymore.

I would guess some backoffs and countermeasures is at least a part of that along with that he prefers a bigger edge that card counting provides.


As I have been saying, table game advantage play including card counting is a different beast, because there is a whole group if humans right there in the pit that we deal with. Machines APs just don't have that.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Ever notice that redietz always jumps in and takes credit for what other people have done. And blows the shit out of his own horn telling everyone how good he iss and how he was crushing that same thing 40 years ago. He wants you to believe he's knowledgeable on the subject but he never divulges any knowledge. It's all "I did this and I did that." Idiocy.

Ditz disputes the "at least 30% edge" Shack claimed. Ditz says he absolutely knows that's to high. Yet the empirical evidence is that in the 4 years Shack did it his lowest year was 172% return.

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Nope. Never said I was "crushing it." I didn't say anything remotely close to that. It was something I did that was going to be hit or miss, and it was going to have wild variance, and I did it in a semi-serious way, but not something I took any great pride in. As I said, my limits on this thing at the Stardust were $50, if the managers were there. I never put more than $100 on these cards, regardless, which would be between $300 and $400 in today's dollars.

The fact is that oodles of people were doing this, which is why Boyd was sensitive to the idea and flagged anybody playing certain teams at the certain numbers. There were, in fact, organized teams of bettors doing this for 20 times what I was doing, hitting Boyd simultaneously at multiple locations. The cards were identical at all locations.

Facts are facts. There is little new under the sun. What the Wiz was doing had been done for at least 30 years by many people.

As to what is "actionable" as one maroon said, figure it out. Nothing in the Wizard posts is necessarily "actionable" last year or this year or next year. Unless by "actionable" you mean "I'll bet it hell or high water."

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Mickeycrimm, do you think the fact that Shackleford is well known and easily identified worked against him? Might it have made a difference if he had someone else try to get some of his cards in?

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Axel had been doing the half point parlay cards for years by 2013 when Shack decided to create a thread on it. Axel also said he had gotten down to where none of the books would take his action. He and Shack both said they would zero in on who was putting the cards in. So they would use beards to get them in. But even that got to where it wouldn't work.

And the books would disqualify teams that were "on the hot side."

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For me, this comes back around to APs or winning players, including sports bettors need to do everything they can to protect their identity and anonymity.

How can our resident 40+ year sports betting expert not understand this? :confused:

Regardless of what you are doing, if you are a long-term winning player, the casinos want to identify you, figure out how you are winning and stop you.

I just don't understand why some here don't seem to grasp this. I really don't. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Mickeycrimm, do you think the fact that Shackleford is well known and easily identified worked against him? Might it have made a difference if he had someone else try to get some of his cards in?

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Axel had been doing the half point parlay cards for years by 2013 when Shack decided to create a thread on it. Axel also said he had gotten down to where none of the books would take his action. He and Shack both said they would zero in on who was putting the cards in. So they would use beards to get them in. But even that got to where it wouldn't work.

And the books would disqualify teams that were "on the hot side."

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For me, this comes back around to APs or winning players, including sports bettors need to do everything they can to protect their identity and anonymity.

How can our resident 40+ year sports betting expert not understand this? :confused:

Regardless of what you are doing, if you are a long-term winning player, the casinos want to identify you, figure out how you are winning and stop you.

I just don't understand why some here don't seem to grasp this. I really don't. :rolleyes:

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The problem you have here, kewlJ, is that you lump opinions and outright mechanical advantages together as the same thing. Why do you think books, since time immemorial, have allowed what used to be called betting into the "outlaw line" by select players? Why do you think the Stardust allowed heavy hitters to fire into its virgin line at 6 PM every Sunday night when the first numbers were posted? Why do you think a Hall of Fame sports book manager like Jay Kornegay ("Korn Dog" in the contest) would enter something like LineMasters Bowl Contest, which is a very modest little private event? The answers are all pretty much the same.

Then you could ask why sports books would severely limit those firing at parlay cards with frozen lines or why offshores would label bonus whores and seek to shut them down? The frozen lines and bonus whores are a different type of wagering. The first in the previous paragraph, can be beneficial, overall, for sports books in the long run. The second, not so much.

Thus, obviously (a lot of logical handholding here to explain the obvious), the first category of sport book "problem" is not really a problem. No need for anonymity. In fact, technically, anonymity works against you until you get to Billy Walters level gambling, which only a handful of people do. The second category of sports book "problem" isn't something the books can benefit by in any way, so they will shut you down because it's damned obvious what the plays should be and the books need no hints regarding what the plays should be.

If you don't have an automatic recognition of this stuff, God bless you. It's as plain as dealers flipping their cards up.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Mickeycrimm, do you think the fact that Shackleford is well known and easily identified worked against him? Might it have made a difference if he had someone else try to get some of his cards in?

---

Axel had been doing the half point parlay cards for years by 2013 when Shack decided to create a thread on it. Axel also said he had gotten down to where none of the books would take his action. He and Shack both said they would zero in on who was putting the cards in. So they would use beards to get them in. But even that got to where it wouldn't work.

And the books would disqualify teams that were "on the hot side."

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This is interesting. So Axelwolf and surely others had been doing this and starting to have trouble getting the cards in. Along comes Wizard and writes about it in detail on his forum, one of the more popular gambling forums. That couldn't of helped the case.

I get that Shackleford's website and forums were about "helping players to be better gamblers through the math". (or something like that). And although I can't point to anything specific right at the moment, I am sure I have benefited by something I read by Shack at one time or another. But this certainly brushes up against the "loose lips sinks ships" mentality.

There have been a number of times Wizard talked about things that killed plays. One the Magic 21 side bet, my brother and I were involved with in Colorado, when Mike posted about it in detail, just what it was worth. It almost instantaneously killed the play as the casinos in Colorado immediately reduced payouts.

Another the Plaza VP promotion, Mike was not going to be able to play. He was out of town or something. So he posted up just what it was worth per hours, and the casino pulled the best machines even before the promo started. (I was not playing that one).

But there is a definite history or that with this guy. Makes you question who's side he is on? :confused:

Now I talk about card counting and different things, but that is all well known. 60 years. Thousands of books. I do occasionally mention some specific techniques that I use that aren't as well know. Things that increased Ev and winnings by a good deal like tracking and immediately jumping to a second table. A couple others that I have never mentioned. :cool:

And I talk about some techniques that I do that I am certain have increased my longevity. Like spreading both ways and playing card counter's basis strategy, so as not to play many hands differently during different counts. But again, I figure my loose lips in talking about anything I do specifically, really only harms me if it harms anyone. And I haven't noticed any adverse effect of doing so.

But seriously, not to attack shackleford, but isn't there a case to be made that he harms AP's?

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

But seriously, not to attack shackleford, but isn't there a case to be made that he harms AP's?

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Obviously.

I'm not the information sharing police, but it's not necessary to hype the opportunities the way he does.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Ditz disputes the "at least 30% edge" Shack claimed. Ditz says he absolutely knows that's to high. Yet the empirical evidence is that in the 4 years Shack did it his lowest year was 172% return.

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He didn't have a 72% edge.

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Originally Posted by redietz

The problem you have here, kewlJ, is that you lump opinions and outright mechanical advantages together as the same thing. Why do you think books, since time immemorial, have allowed what used to be called betting into the "outlaw line" by select players? Why do you think the Stardust allowed heavy hitters to fire into its virgin line at 6 PM every Sunday night when the first numbers were posted? Why do you think a Hall of Fame sports book manager like Jay Kornegay ("Korn Dog" in the contest) would enter something like LineMasters Bowl Contest, which is a very modest little private event? The answers are all pretty much the same.

Then you could ask why sports books would severely limit those firing at parlay cards with frozen lines or why offshores would label bonus whores and seek to shut them down? The frozen lines and bonus whores are a different type of wagering. The first in the previous paragraph, can be beneficial, overall, for sports books in the long run. The second, not so much.

Thus, obviously (a lot of logical handholding here to explain the obvious), the first category of sport book "problem" is not really a problem. No need for anonymity. In fact, technically, anonymity works against you until you get to Billy Walters level gambling, which only a handful of people do. The second category of sports book "problem" isn't something the books can benefit by in any way, so they will shut you down because it's damned obvious what the plays should be and the books need no hints regarding what the plays should be.

If you don't have an automatic recognition of this stuff, God bless you. It's as plain as dealers flipping their cards up.

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Red, stop worrying so much about me. :D I am not trying to become a professional sports bettor. Sure I am learning some things. A lot of it from mickeycrimm, but my sports betting is a very specific side gig. It is ALL about the bonuses. And that will probably dry up at some point....maybe that has already began. :rolleyes:

I have never put in a parlay card and certainly won't now. That is NOT going to help my cause of staying anonymous, which is necessary (as much as possible) for my primary gig and income, card counting. BTW, side note: Card counting, my primary income is 3rd of 4 income streams this year at the present time. And 3rd by quite a bit. One trick pony I am. :cool:

I do however like some angles and things I am learning. Some of the angles Half Smoke posts about, (as he did today) that NFL away teams and small under dogs showed a very small profit over many years (backed by data). I love the first 2 week underdog angle that he shared last year and I played where underdogs went 11-5 both the first two weeks. Can't wait for the first two weeks in September. :D

But in the end, my profits come from the bonus and eating as little of that money as I can getting through the rollover.

Just leave me out of you obsessions and silly little forum war where you are trying to prove you are the greatest sports bettor of all time. And yet don't seem to know why a winning player needs to protect his identity and anonymity. Just Bizarre.

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Ever notice that redietz always jumps in and takes credit for what other people have done. And blows the shit out of his own horn telling everyone how good he iss and how he was crushing that same thing 40 years ago. He wants you to believe he's knowledgeable on the subject but he never divulges any knowledge. It's all "I did this and I did that." Idiocy.

Ditz disputes the "at least 30% edge" Shack claimed. Ditz says he absolutely knows that's to high. Yet the empirical evidence is that in the 4 years Shack did it his lowest year was 172% return.

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Nope. Never said I was "crushing it." I didn't say anything remotely close to that. It was something I did that was going to be hit or miss, and it was going to have wild variance, and I did it in a semi-serious way, but not something I took any great pride in. As I said, my limits on this thing at the Stardust were $50, if the managers were there. I never put more than $100 on these cards, regardless, which would be between $300 and $400 in today's dollars.

The fact is that oodles of people were doing this, which is why Boyd was sensitive to the idea and flagged anybody playing certain teams at the certain numbers. There were, in fact, organized teams of bettors doing this for 20 times what I was doing, hitting Boyd simultaneously at multiple locations. The cards were identical at all locations.

Facts are facts. There is little new under the sun. What the Wiz was doing had been done for at least 30 years by many people.

As to what is "actionable" as one maroon said, figure it out. Nothing in the Wizard posts is necessarily "actionable" last year or this year or next year. Unless by "actionable" you mean "I'll bet it hell or high water."

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It was a reference to all your back patting you do then at the end there is nothing of substance outside you trying to frame yourself as wise. All the forum sharps have wised up to your game, Red.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

But seriously, not to attack shackleford, but isn't there a case to be made that he harms AP's?

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Obviously.

I'm not the information sharing police, but it's not necessary to hype the opportunities the way he does.

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You are being kind with this statement.

It is history now, but he literally pulled the rug out from under us with the Magic 21 play. We were camped out in Colorado (as were other AP's playing it) when Shackleford posted about the play and it all but ended the very next day.

AND it gets even worse. After the fact, sometime later I was communicating with another AP, who I communicate with periodically for more than a decade. He and an associate were also playing that play (unbeknownst to me at that time). The associate is personal friends with Shackleford and found out that Shackleford was about to expose the play. He pleaded with Shackleford (supposedly his friend) not to expose a play he was working on. Shacky delayed a few days and then went ahead and screwed us all. So throw any notion that Shacklefords actions were unintentional out the window.

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Originally Posted by redietz

P.S.S. I had a client/partner in the 80's, a Jewish accountant from New York, who flew to Las Vegas each week just to do this for thousands of dollars each weekend. He would actually fill out the tickets, which took a good eight hours, and then fly out. He used this and another, slightly different strategy. He was the guy who entered The Castaways (forerunner to the SuperBook contest) and who I took over for about two-thirds of the way through.
https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...castaways.html

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https://thumbs4.imagebam.com/73/6b/f8/MEU0E5M_t.jpg

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

He pleaded with Shackleford (supposedly his friend) not to expose a play he was working on. Shacky delayed a few days and then went ahead and screwed us all.

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If this is true then it definitely stands to reason the Wizard was being compensated in some way for exposing the play. It could be something as simple as casinos looking the other way regarding his own plays.

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Originally Posted by jdog

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

He pleaded with Shackleford (supposedly his friend) not to expose a play he was working on. Shacky delayed a few days and then went ahead and screwed us all.

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If this is true then it definitely stands to reason the Wizard was being compensated in some way for exposing the play. It could be something as simple as casinos looking the other way regarding his own plays.

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I don't buy this. Who would be paying him to kill the play other that the casinos involved. And if they wanted to kill the play, they didn't need Wizard to do or say anything. They could have just cut the payoff (which they eventually did).

I think is is just a case of Mike. Not caring that his revealing something hurts others. He made some kind of comment to that effect at one point. I think regarding the Plaza play. He said something like it isn't his responsibility to stay silent, even if he knows others are playing it. I really think his mindset is that if he is not playing it, fuck anyone else.

Just my opinion, but it is one thing for Mike to do a write up of a new game or side bet, including possible vulnerabilities. He is paid by the new owners to keep doing that. But when he knows players are working it, he should either hold off or be much less specific that he is when he reveals these plays. He usually goes step by step AND reveals just what the play is worth an hour. When the casino reads that.....and they do, there is only going to be one outcome. They will shut it down.

So this idea that he is helping anyone else, doesn't fly. He just can't help himself. He wants everyone to know that he knows....even if it harms other APs. The term I would use is sabotage.

How does the saying go....with friends like that.....

Or a revised version: with fellow APs on our side doing this....

Dude, you didn’t play the Colorado side bet

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Originally Posted by mcap

Dude, you didn’t play the Colorado side bet

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Succinct.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

But seriously, not to attack shackleford, but isn't there a case to be made that he harms AP's?

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Obviously.

I'm not the information sharing police, but it's not necessary to hype the opportunities the way he does.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Ditz disputes the "at least 30% edge" Shack claimed. Ditz says he absolutely knows that's to high. Yet the empirical evidence is that in the 4 years Shack did it his lowest year was 172% return.

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He didn't have a 72% edge.

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Not the point. He exceeded the “at least 30%” he said it was worth. Actually doubled it.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

He didn't have a 72% edge.

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Not the point. He exceeded the “at least 30%” he said it was worth. Actually doubled it.

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He didn't have a 60% edge.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

He didn't have a 72% edge.

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Not the point. He exceeded the “at least 30%” he said it was worth. Actually doubled it.

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He didn't have a 60% edge.

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But his actual results were more than double what he thought the minimum edge was.....and did it thru 4 seasons. That is called empirical evidence.

But since you know what the exact edge was, quit fucking around and tell us what you think it was.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Mickeycrimm, do you think the fact that Shackleford is well known and easily identified worked against him? Might it have made a difference if he had someone else try to get some of his cards in?

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Axel had been doing the half point parlay cards for years by 2013 when Shack decided to create a thread on it. Axel also said he had gotten down to where none of the books would take his action. He and Shack both said they would zero in on who was putting the cards in. So they would use beards to get them in. But even that got to where it wouldn't work.

And the books would disqualify teams that were "on the hot side."

---

This is interesting. So Axelwolf and surely others had been doing this and starting to have trouble getting the cards in. Along comes Wizard and writes about it in detail on his forum, one of the more popular gambling forums. That couldn't of helped the case.

I get that Shackleford's website and forums were about "helping players to be better gamblers through the math". (or something like that). And although I can't point to anything specific right at the moment, I am sure I have benefited by something I read by Shack at one time or another. But this certainly brushes up against the "loose lips sinks ships" mentality.

There have been a number of times Wizard talked about things that killed plays. One the Magic 21 side bet, my brother and I were involved with in Colorado, when Mike posted about it in detail, just what it was worth. It almost instantaneously killed the play as the casinos in Colorado immediately reduced payouts.

Another the Plaza VP promotion, Mike was not going to be able to play. He was out of town or something. So he posted up just what it was worth per hours, and the casino pulled the best machines even before the promo started. (I was not playing that one).

But there is a definite history or that with this guy. Makes you question who's side he is on? :confused:

Now I talk about card counting and different things, but that is all well known. 60 years. Thousands of books. I do occasionally mention some specific techniques that I use that aren't as well know. Things that increased Ev and winnings by a good deal like tracking and immediately jumping to a second table. A couple others that I have never mentioned. :cool:

And I talk about some techniques that I do that I am certain have increased my longevity. Like spreading both ways and playing card counter's basis strategy, so as not to play many hands differently during different counts. But again, I figure my loose lips in talking about anything I do specifically, really only harms me if it harms anyone. And I haven't noticed any adverse effect of doing so.

But seriously, not to attack shackleford, but isn't there a case to be made that he harms AP's?

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According to Shack, he published the Magic 21 strategy two weeks after the play was dead, 21 July 2017. It was actually another WoV member, blackhawkphil, that brought attention to the play on 1 May 2017.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/ques...ackjack-in-co/

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

According to Shack, he published the Magic 21 strategy two weeks after the play was dead, 21 July 2017. It was actually another WoV member, blackhawkphil, that brought attention to the play on 1 May 2017.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/ques...ackjack-in-co/

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Wizard is incorrect mickey. Either intentionally or unintentionally. If you read his posted July 21 he says: "The play is pretty much dead" and "I have heard everybody has put a max bet on this of $25 or less". THIS IS FALSE! He "heard" wrong. :mad:

The play was in the process of dying it is true. Some casinos had started to reduce the amount of the side bet from the full $100 Max (Colorado limit at the time) to 25% of the main bet or $25. But not everywhere. It was a casino by casino movement.

We were camped out, living in a motel playing 2 properties at the time. The day wizard made that post Max bets were 100% of main bet or $100. The day after he made that post Max Bets for the side bet had dropped to 25% or $25. I came home the next day. My brother stayed for a few days looking around and of course found nothing.

Wizard put the final stake in that play! And I didn't know it at the time but other AP's playing that play, begged him to hold off and he didn't. Maybe it would have only been a few extra days or weeks, but he made sure it ended that day.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MaxPen

This dude is a fraud. He just tries to piece together things that he imagines goes on based on a culmination of bits and pieces of stories he pulls from the Internet. Clown world.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Gottlob1

The thing about KJ - if you actually read what he writes - is that he constantly echoes the words/phrases and themes of the immediately previous replies by others. As I noted, a while back, he's extremely suggestible. Not someone in control of even his own life. People don't always end up in places like Vegas by their own conscious volition. My guess would be some nut-job living from one day to the next, now on the internet. Certainly of negligible intelligence, etc.

---

UNKewlJ:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MDawg

hand cocked onto his side, the bent elbow and the high pitched whiny voice complaining, "Now wayyyyt a minute, Misterrrrr."

---

"I did that play, and I did it firrst" (toothless grin, head turned sideways).

Shut the fuck up Mdawg you fucking desert nigger asshole. All you do is troll and hijack. You contribute nothing and know nothing about real advantage play and winning. Just silly stories of "Casinos let me spread 1-50 and win as much as I want. They don't care". Your claims are as real as Evenbob's claims of winning 80% at roulette.

KJ has made the Colorado claim at least once before. Probably it was here but I'm not interested in searching for it. I didn't post about it last time because it seemed a waste of time. Since KJ keeps claiming it, I will post.

This is a GWAE interview with Cartwright. It's his fourth time on the show so Dancer/Muchkin believe he is credible. I know some people don't like Dancer but they did try to have good guests for the show.

http://www.slot-machine-resource.com...artwright4.mp3

It's an hour long, has other topics, and I don't want to listen again. I try to summarize from memory.

Buffalo Blackjack was used to describe the game of blackjack with the 2 side bets. It was only available in Colorado casinos.

Cartwright found the game early. He is a computer guy. He did his own analysis.

Word spread and other people were coming in to play it. Wizard mentioned in WoV that he was working on an analysis.

Cartwright contacted the Wiz and asked him to hold off publishing for a while. Wiz agreed.

Wiz waited awhile and then published.

Cartwright said the casinos realized they were getting hurt and cut the paytable or dropped the game. He said by the time the Wiz published there was only one casino still offering the game and there were many people trying to play it.

Wiz didn't kill the play.

Was KJ playing it? His network covers the country and maybe somebody tipped him. He was able to find his special blackjack machine in casinos halfway across the country by putting the word out over his network.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

Shut the fuck up Mdawg you fucking desert nigger asshole. All you do is troll and hijack. You contribute nothing and know nothing about real advantage play and winning. Just silly stories of "Casinos let me spread 1-50 and win as much as I want. They don't care". Your claims are as real as Evenbob's claims of winning 80% at roulette.

---

I kinda enjoy you being used as his whipping post. You've certainly earned the right.

Give us more to the tale about what you claim wizard did to you this time. I'm liking that too!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by cyberbabble

KJ has made the Colorado claim at least once before. Probably it was here but I'm not interested in searching for it. I didn't post about it last time because it seemed a waste of time. Since KJ keeps claiming it, I will post.

This is a GWAE interview with Cartwright. It's his fourth time on the show so Dancer/Muchkin believe he is credible. I know some people don't like Dancer but they did try to have good guests for the show.

http://www.slot-machine-resource.com...artwright4.mp3

It's an hour long, has other topics, and I don't want to listen again. I try to summarize from memory.

Buffalo Blackjack was used to describe the game of blackjack with the 2 side bets. It was only available in Colorado casinos.

Cartwright found the game early. He is a computer guy. He did his own analysis.

Word spread and other people were coming in to play it. Wizard mentioned in WoV that he was working on an analysis.

Cartwright contacted the Wiz and asked him to hold off publishing for a while. Wiz agreed.

Wiz waited awhile and then published.

Cartwright said the casinos realized they were getting hurt and cut the paytable or dropped the game. He said by the time the Wiz published there was only one casino still offering the game and there were many people trying to play it.

Wiz didn't kill the play.

Was KJ playing it? His network covers the country and maybe somebody tipped him. He was able to find his special blackjack machine in casinos halfway across the country by putting the word out over his network.

---

Some how I had never heard that episode. I tended to listen to GWAE in spurts. I also tended to tune out early on topics that didn't interest me (which probably wasn't a good idea). So I just listened in full. Not exactly sure when the interview occurred but obviously after the play had ended. Maybe fairly soon after it had ended. One comment and make of it what you will. Cartwright has a pretty distinct voice. Not quite as distinct as Munchkin, but still pretty distinct. :)

Ok, so I didn't learn a whole lot new, since the discussion was all after the fact. I was surprised his strategy didn't involve tracking or side counting aces. More aces remaining was a very important thing. You weren't going to lower or raise (couldn't) your bet depending on number of aces used or remaining, so I guess he decided it just didn't matter. But I think more aces remaining was worth more than an additional 1% that he suggested.

As I started listen there was something that immediately seemed contradictory or that he was hiding, but he clarified at the end. That was at the beginning he said he played for 1 weekend (because he had a regular job). But the experiences he was sharing were certainly from more than 1 weekend worth of play. But towards the end he clarified that he initially played for 1 weekend, then went home. Then returned the following weekend and played for a week and a half until the games in that town started being reduced to 25% main bet. THAT would have put him fairly late to the game.

Looking back on the whole evolution of the game and play, the amazing thing is that the game hit casinos in Colorado in 2011. And it wasn't until June/July 2017 that the AP exploded took place. That is amazing! Makes you wonder how many AP type players figured it out early and just quietly played it. Maybe not even close to optimally, but at $1000/hour, you could play non-optyimally and do pretty good. :) But I am sure the same occurred with card counting. Surely there were players doing some form of card counting for years before Thorp did his thing.

Anyway, it is pretty much ancient history. I am not pissed at Shackleford, although I was pretty annoyed, maybe even pissed at the time. It is just that based not only on this event, but other situations where he "outed" plays, I don't get why he does that. I think it is selfish and I think it is ego. A "look what I know" type thing.

Cyberbabble is correct in that I network with various players around the country. Always have. Mostly players I know from other forums (certainly not this one as this doesn't even qualify as an AP forum). That has always been a useful tool for me, although most cases they don't share all that much until after the fact (especially with plays and conditions). They hold back. Guess what? I hold back too. For years players would tell me they are coming to Vegas and ask me to direct them to a strong game. You think I ever told anyone about the 6 deck game dealing 87-90% (6+ decks)? With surrender no less. Must have skipped my mind. :cool:

But then occasional someone does share something, maybe a play they are not going after for whatever reason. Maybe they don't want to or can't travel. Maybe they are involved in a different play at the time and don't want to pull out of that. This was sort of the case with this Magic 21 play for us and how I came to find myself living in motels in Colorado for a month. Nothing more to add. :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcap

Dude, you didn’t play the Colorado side bet

---

Succinct.

---

And truthful.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

But seriously, not to attack shackleford, but isn't there a case to be made that he harms AP's?

---

Sure, but it's been being done for decades. Sklansky, Malmuth, Dancer, Shackleford have all been consultants for casinos giving them information that harms AP's.

Remember Revel, 11 years ago. Shack wrote the strategy to play the 100K loss rebate. Dancer, looking for a consulting contract, gave the information to Revel for free and told them what machines to pull. He did it for free then pumped them for a consulting contract which failed to materialize.

Pretty much everything being published on strategy is harming AP's in the long run because it ain't just the AP's learning it. The casinos learn it to. In my area, machines, there's a ton of new information out there with more and more being published everyday.

Even Shack is publishing information on advantage slots. His latest book, the 2023 edition of Gambling 102 has a section on advantage slots. All current games to. But I've seen information like that being exposed for years now.

I usually don't do the tirade stuff when I see strategies I use get published on the internet. What the fuck are you going to do? You can't tell people not to do it. Just have to live with it.

But it would be fun just to fuck with Shack just a little bit, redietz style. Now let's see. How would redietz word it?

Hey, Shack, we were doing that shit years ago. Oodles of people. Why are you acting like you are the one that invented it? It don't do us AP's any favors publishing shit like this. Fucking over the wiseguys just to make it look like you invented it. And they could change the chips in those machines any day which would make your strategy obsolete, dufus. This shit is plain as the nose on your face. If you can't recognize it you got a problem. PS: You learned more in this post than you learned reading Shack's entire Gambling 102.
_______________________________________
Yep, that was fun acting like Ditz. Now back to normal.

Pic below is of the slot games Shack wrote about. A lot of you will recognize them. He also covers the strategy for UX, UX Bonus Streak and UX Keno.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

But seriously, not to attack shackleford, but isn't there a case to be made that he harms AP's?

---

Sure, but it's been being done for decades. Sklansky, Malmuth, Dancer, Shackleford have all been consultants for casinos giving them information that harms AP's.

Remember Revel, 11 years ago. Shack wrote the strategy to play the 100K loss rebate. Dancer, looking for a consulting contract, gave the information to Revel for free and told them what machines to pull. He did it for free then pumped them for a consulting contract which failed to materialize.

Pretty much everything being published on strategy is harming AP's in the long run because it ain't just the AP's learning it. The casinos learn it to. In my area, machines, there's a ton of new information out there with more and more being published everyday.

Even Shack is publishing information on advantage slots. His latest book, the 2023 edition of Gambling 102 has a section on advantage slots. All current games to. But I've seen information like that being exposed for years now.

I usually don't do the tirade stuff when I see strategies I use get published on the internet. What the fuck are you going to do? You can't tell people not to do it. Just have to live with it.

But it would be fun just to fuck with Shack just a little bit, redietz style. Now let's see. How would redietz word it?

Hey, Shack, we were doing that shit years ago. Oodles of people. Why are you acting like you are the one that invented it? It don't do us AP's any favors publishing shit like this. Fucking over the wiseguys just to make it look like you invented it. And they could change the chips in those machines any day which would make your strategy obsolete, dufus. This shit is plain as the nose on your face. If you can't recognize it you got a problem. PS: You learned more in this post than you learned reading Shack's entire Gambling 102.
_______________________________________
Yep, that was fun acting like Ditz. Now back to normal.

Pic below is of the slot games Shack wrote about. A lot of you will recognize them. He also covers the strategy for UX, UX Bonus Streak and UX Keno.

---

There is a lot to comment on here mickeycrimm. I'll leave the redeitz response speculation untouched. That is your thing. Some of it kind of funny, but just not relevant to me.

A couple blackjack guys to add to what I will call your "traitor" list who have worked with the casinos against AP's. Furguson (Wong) and Lawrence Revere. I learned a lot from Wong. When I ran into him a couple times at Westin, he actually showed me how to beat the Dealer's Angels BJ game. But my like and appreciation doesn't excuse the fact that he worked for/with casinos. :mad: Eliot also.

I just don't share your non-chalant "What are you going to do" attitude. As AP's we fight a "war" against the casinos to be able to do what we do. Table game and card counters for a very long time and almost daily. AP's that do other things, it has caught up to and they now fight that same war. And it IS a war. In real war, when someone does this, they are a traitor. It is treason and punishable by death. I am not suggesting that. But these APs turned casino consultants (or writing books exposing plays), traitors deserve all the ill will they get. I view it as taking money from my pocket. Nothing less.

I wonder how the mob would handle traitors and rat finks (to use monet's word)? Yeah, I wonder? :cool:

I have spoken many times to a player who played with Eliot and considered him a friend. He tells me Eliot wanted to be a card counter for a living and just couldn't. That he had a problem putting out the bigger wagers, especially when things were running bad. Of course this is very different than the Bio Eliot paints. But this is something that actually ends many card counters "dreams". They just aren't cut out for it, no matter how much they want it.

So as a math guy, understanding gambling math, you can almost understand someone like Eliot turning to the other side, since he can't cut it as an AP. ALMOST!! :D

But some of these other guys, including Wong, Shack, Dancer ect, by all accounts were successful advantage players. To then just consult and teach the dark side things for a few bucks, is just unforgivable to me.

That is just me. :rolleyes: It also is why I always kept my distance. With Eliot, a number of card counters believe that he not only went over to the dark side, but took names and identities of players that he knew with him. He denies that.

Corny.

This reminds me of a couple blackjack traitors that I don't even know their names. In my first few years in Vegas, there was a male-female team of "counter-catchers" working downtown. I am not sure exactly who they worked for, maybe multiple casinos, maybe some sort of collaboration. You would see the from the Plaza all the way to El Cortez, and various places in between (golden Nugget, The D ect). Word was they were a husband and wife team of failed card counters turned traitors.

They would wonder around watching games and players and next thing you know you were getting the tap. They weren't very discreate and easy to spot. I quickly learned to just move on when I spotted them. And then they disappeared. Hopefully they were at the Harvest music Festival in 2017 (LV mass shooting) or came to some equally as hideous end. :cool:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

But since you know what the exact edge was, quit fucking around and tell us what you think it was.

---

I think this is the most relevant chart from his writeup:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sport...ng/nfl-parlay/



Core concept is to pick only the games with a significant edge. Usually this involves the key point spreads of 3 or 7, but can also include other games with big line moves (assuming the book doesn't restrict those games).

The more picks on your card, the more your edge is compounded. On a 12-leg card, the edge reaches 100%. But if I understand correctly, that's almost impossible to be available. Also, the variance is astronomical. Your odds of hitting are almost 1500-to-1 against. (He mentions one book with a small consolation payout for catching 11 of 12.)

Realistically as he suggests in his commentary, you typically only have around 4 viable picks available which translates to a 14% edge on the chart.

If you look through those threads, there were many lackluster weeks without any strong opportunities.

For such a high-variance endeavor, I think caution is required in assessing actual results. Even on the pick-4 at 14% edge, you're still 11-to-1 against. I believe Wizard was reasonably able to estimate his EV. In the later discussions, he assigns each pick a value in "basis points" -- but I'm not clear on the computational procedure.

Ultimately, his overall edge depended on his play criteria. If he only played the best weekends, I can see that he could have been up near 30%. But to get the 30% on a pick-6, you're 38-to-1 against.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

This reminds me of a couple blackjack traitors that I don't even know their names. In my first few years in Vegas, there was a male-female team of "counter-catchers" working downtown. I am not sure exactly who they worked for, maybe multiple casinos, maybe some sort of collaboration. You would see the from the Plaza all the way to El Cortez, and various places in between (golden Nugget, The D ect). Word was they were a husband and wife team of failed card counters turned traitors.

They would wonder around watching games and players and next thing you know you were getting the tap. They weren't very discreate and easy to spot. I quickly learned to just move on when I spotted them. And then they disappeared. Hopefully they were at the Harvest music Festival in 2017 (LV mass shooting) or came to some equally as hideous end. :cool:

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MaxPen

This tunnel dwelling fraud doesn't have a clue as to what is really going on out there. He just reads shit on the Internet and lets his imagination run wild...lol

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MaxPen

This dude is a fraud. He just tries to piece together things that he imagines goes on based on a culmination of bits and pieces of stories he pulls from the Internet. Clown world.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

So as a math guy,

---

What "math guy" can't even keep track of how many years she supposedly went to college, or the day of the week where she received her ACH settlement? (Or how long it might take to re-program a shuffling machine.)

Thirty-three UNKewl lies, and counting.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

I just don't share your non-chalant "What are you going to do" attitude. As AP's we fight a "war" against the casinos to be able to do what we do. Table game and card counters for a very long time and almost daily. AP's that do other things, it has caught up to and they now fight that same war. And it IS a war. In real war, when someone does this, they are a traitor. It is treason and punishable by death. I am not suggesting that. But these APs turned casino consultants (or writing books exposing plays), traitors deserve all the ill will they get. I view it as taking money from my pocket. Nothing less.

I wonder how the mob would handle traitors and rat finks (to use monet's word)? Yeah, I wonder? :cool:

---

Good grief.

You're the bad guy.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MDawg

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

So as a math guy,

---

What "math guy" can't even keep track of how many years she supposedly went to college, or the day of the week where she received her ACH settlement? (Or how long it might take to re-program a shuffling machine.)

---

This is as dishonest as dishonest can be. You took a quote where I referred to someone else as a math guy, and only post a couple words, making it look like I referred to myself as a "math guy", which is something I have never, never, NEVER done. Is their no floor to the level you will sink and the lies you make up. What a fucking sleezebag, you are! On some forums inclduing WoV, people are suspended or banned for such intentional misquoting.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Don Perignom

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

But since you know what the exact edge was, quit fucking around and tell us what you think it was.

---

I think this is the most relevant chart from his writeup:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sport...ng/nfl-parlay/



Core concept is to pick only the games with a significant edge. Usually this involves the key point spreads of 3 or 7, but can also include other games with big line moves (assuming the book doesn't restrict those games).

The more picks on your card, the more your edge is compounded. On a 12-leg card, the edge reaches 100%. But if I understand correctly, that's almost impossible to be available. Also, the variance is astronomical. Your odds of hitting are almost 1500-to-1 against. (He mentions one book with a small consolation payout for catching 11 of 12.)

Realistically as he suggests in his commentary, you typically only have around 4 viable picks available which translates to a 14% edge on the chart.

If you look through those threads, there were many lackluster weeks without any strong opportunities.

For such a high-variance endeavor, I think caution is required in assessing actual results. Even on the pick-4 at 14% edge, you're still 11-to-1 against. I believe Wizard was reasonably able to estimate his EV. In the later discussions, he assigns each pick a value in "basis points" -- but I'm not clear on the computational procedure.

Ultimately, his overall edge depended on his play criteria. If he only played the best weekends, I can see that he could have been up near 30%. But to get the 30% on a pick-6, you're 38-to-1 against.

---

You guys do realize that, during and after the years listed by mickey, there were some rules changes significantly affecting the ubiquity (look up "ubiquity," mickey) of the 3 and 7 point margins?

Please tell me you all knew that.

LOL.

Why do you think Mr. Walters, in his book, used historical rather than current data in his how-to chapters? I mean, Jesus, this stuff is goddamn obvious. It didn't occur to anyone to check it out?

You guys...if you didn't notice this shit, God bless you. You really need to be locked up for your own protection.

Final word: you guys treat sports betting as if it's in-perpetuity coin flips. It is so dumb, inappropriate, and flat-out wrong from any mathematical perspective. Mind-bogglingly wrong.

Over and out. Seriously, why should I be correcting mickey crimm's wayward gambling? The guy is like Rain Man. Rain Man as a cab driver.

By the way, I addressed the dates of Walters' charts and opined on the why's of that, at the Johnson City Men's Book Club meeting regarding Gambler by Billy Walters. Mickey should have taken up my offer to fly him in for the meeting. He might have learned something.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Don Perignom

Good grief.

You're the bad guy.

---

How am I the bad guy? Are you speaking me personally or advantage players in the war vs casinos?

If me personally, I don't know what your status is, I suspect you have some kind of employment to support yourself and pay your bills other than APing. I'll bet you wouldn't take kindly to someone trying to take that away and stop you from making a living.

If you are talking advantage players or card counters in general, no court has ever ruled that what we do is illegal. and many have specifically ruled that is is completely legal. We aren't the bad guys.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by redietz

You guys...if you didn't notice this shit, God bless you. You really need to be locked up for your own protection.

---

If I remember, I'll post a thread when I try this out for the 2017 NFL season.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

How am I the bad guy?

---

You're imposing a bunch of imaginary obligations on people for your convenience.

This is why we have so many wars.

I for one am shocked, astonished, and nearly speechless with flabbergastation.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

How am I the bad guy?

---

Obviously he was referring to the fact that you hoped these people got murdered... and you always paint yourself as a nice guy??

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jdog

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

How am I the bad guy?

---

Obviously he was referring to the fact that you hoped these people got murdered... and you always paint yourself as a nice guy??

---

People were murdered in the October 1 Las Vegas mass shooting. I don't condone that in any way. But it happened. People died. I wouldn't be the least bit upset if I learned that some sleezebag that had tried to harm and prevent me from making a living was among them. I am sorry but I wouldn't shed a tear for them. Just as I wouldn't shed a tear if that doxing, lying sleezebag Mdawg were to suddenly expire when a piano drops out of the sky (maybe from an airplane) on him.

KJ,

Could you post a link to the thread where you vowed to continue to post negative things about the Wiz for the rest of your life? I think you claimed you would destroy his reputation and his credibility for all to see. You also pointed out that since you are younger than the Wiz he would probably die first. You said that would let you continue the attacks even after died.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by cyberbabble

KJ,

Could you post a link to the thread where you vowed to continue to post negative things about the Wiz for the rest of your life? I think you claimed you destroy his reputation and his credibility for all to see. You also pointed out that since you are younger than the Wiz he would probably die first. You said that would let you continue the attacks even after died.

---

Why? that is water under the bridge for me. May not have been my best moment and I probably didn't get across what I was trying to get across. These things happen. Mickey made some kind of reference in the heat of the moment (and maybe fueled by some firewater) about coming to shacks door and some veiled reference of shooting him, or at least that is what Shack claims. I forget the wording but mickey was not going to shoot Shack. It is ridiculous.

Shackleford was wrong in siding with Qfit in our dispute. Mike even said he considered Qfit (norm) a friend and he felt like he owed him a favor. The guy isn't even a member of that forum really. And in many private exchanges with Mike, he lied, by telling me one thing privately and saying the opposite publicly. I had every right to be a little angry with him. But again, ancient history. Why do you feel the need to bring it up?

Anyway, enough of this. I am going out to lunch and play a decent size coin in at a casino I have been advised still sends out decent mailers.

I did some of this back in January, wanting to get back into the mailer husting game, but was on the road a lot from March to last week and just wasn't able to play the free play offers once they started rolling in, so I am back to square one, trying to generate more offers.

Be sure to look around for machine glitches while you're there.

So is Redietz's big thing he likes to reference the stats around NFL pointspreads and how they change? That there have been rule changes and other factors which invalidate those stats? Is that basically it?

So instead of talking about these factors and sharing what he does know (that is not info that would burn out anything) he talks about how he knows something others don't.

lmao can you imagine counting how many times he has done this? Must be dozens of times (on this board alone!) he is trying to impress the users of this forum. Just to fit in as a professional gambler. Just wow.

wow.

It would actually be an interesting discussion to see. I don't bet NFL currently but it would be actionable info vs his typical babble-insult.

Yet he doesn't do this. He goes on and on about how everyone else is dumb.

Why is it that he clings to these little nuggets of info?

Regardless a true sharp should be able to take rule changes into account somewhat and shade the stats in the proper direction if needed. It is definitely good to know if you are betting. Perhaps integrating some change into your system.. Or take fewer more marginal situations. So many factors. And still not a reason to never use 'EV' in discussions with other fellow sharps. (who ALWAYS understand it is an approximation)

Yet Redietz still won't talk about it.

Fuck I just want to know how you determine the EV of bets after the fact?? His highness won't even do that. (lol) Apparently it somehow exists in the past tense though.....

Singer and I agree on this one. This guy is weird. Just weird.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Be sure to look around for machine glitches while you're there.

---

Will do. ;)

This is a perfect example of you being blinded by hate and bias. After we completed our play on the blackjack glitch, and I was able to talk some about it and our experience, some other players like mickeycrimm and others (not going to look right now) confirmed that there are such glitches on machines, and the electronic blackjack games seem to have more than their fair share of them.

We stumbled upon one. Made s bit of money. Hate and bias just won't allow you to accept that.

BTW, I received an email from someone late last week, again claiming there are more machines still out there that have not been fixed or whatever the terminology is. He even gave me a specific location of one he claims to have played last week. he was not someone I am familiar with, but seemed credible. But we did our thing. Not going to go running around searching every machine in every out of the way corner of the country.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Don Perignom

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

I just don't share your non-chalant "What are you going to do" attitude. As AP's we fight a "war" against the casinos to be able to do what we do. Table game and card counters for a very long time and almost daily. AP's that do other things, it has caught up to and they now fight that same war. And it IS a war. In real war, when someone does this, they are a traitor. It is treason and punishable by death. I am not suggesting that. But these APs turned casino consultants (or writing books exposing plays), traitors deserve all the ill will they get. I view it as taking money from my pocket. Nothing less.

I wonder how the mob would handle traitors and rat finks (to use monet's word)? Yeah, I wonder? :cool:

---

Good grief.

You're the bad guy.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MDawg

The reason UNKewlJ loses at everything and is a loser in general is because he's a bad, unnatural person. And that has nothing to do with his being gay.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MickeyCrimm

KJ, why don’t you just stop with all the bitter angry crap.

---

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Be sure to look around for machine glitches while you're there.

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Will do. ;)

This is a perfect example of you being blinded by hate and bias. After we completed our play on the blackjack glitch, and I was able to talk some about it and our experience, some other players like mickeycrimm and others (not going to look right now) confirmed that there are such glitches on machines, and the electronic blackjack games seem to have more than their fair share of them.

We stumbled upon one. Made s bit of money. Hate and bias just won't allow you to accept that.

BTW, I received an email from someone late last week, again claiming there are more machines still out there that have not been fixed or whatever the terminology is. He even gave me a specific location of one he claims to have played last week. he was not someone I am familiar with, but seemed credible. But we did our thing. Not going to go running around searching every machine in every out of the way corner of the country.

---

Pretty generous for a guy to cold contact you with the specific location of an actively glitched machine.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Regardless a true sharp should be able to take rule changes into account somewhat and shade the stats in the proper direction if needed.

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Yes.

Incidentally, here's how Nevada has evolved in 10 years. Statewide:



From 2013 to 2023, parlay cards crashed from nearly 15% to less than 2% of total sportsbook win.

If you identified an edge today, I assume you'd be more conspicuous given the reduced volume.

I wonder what their plan is to replace that high-volume segment of their operations. Other states which are mostly mobile-only, promote parlays very heavily in their apps. But Nevada has mostly primitive apps, with very little promotion.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

This reminds me of a couple blackjack traitors that I don't even know their names. In my first few years in Vegas, there was a male-female team of "counter-catchers" working downtown. I am not sure exactly who they worked for, maybe multiple casinos, maybe some sort of collaboration. You would see the from the Plaza all the way to El Cortez, and various places in between (golden Nugget, The D ect). Word was they were a husband and wife team of failed card counters turned traitors.

They would wonder around watching games and players and next thing you know you were getting the tap. They weren't very discreate and easy to spot. I quickly learned to just move on when I spotted them. And then they disappeared. Hopefully they were at the Harvest music Festival in 2017 (LV mass shooting) or came to some equally as hideous end. :cool:

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It's entertaining watching kew make this stuff up on the go as he tries to shoehorn his fantasies into all the information others bring up first. And the true tell? Him wishing death to AP's who just don't fit the mold he concocted about himself.

Who does that?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

And the true tell? Him wishing death to AP's who just don't fit the mold he concocted about himself.

Who does that?

---

Except what you claim never happened. It is just Singer delusion. I didn't wish Shackleford dead. I simply stated that I would periodically bring up this incident for the rest of my life and since he was older that me that meant the rest of his life (and beyond).

It is always the same with you trolls. You can't read, and see and hear what you want, or probably more accurately just make up whatever you want. :rolleyes:

BUT to answer your question, who does that...wishing people dead? You Rob many times. Remember all the aids comments and weak heart comments ect? And not just to me but redietz, and mickeycrimm before that. I can almost surely find the same wishes for Arci.

If you can't remember that is probably your dementia getting worse. :cool:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

BUT to answer your question, who does that...wishing people dead?

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What if you had to pick one person?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

BUT to answer your question, who does that...wishing people dead?

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What if you had to pick one person?

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No brainer. Sally Struthers. :D

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

No brainer. Sally Struthers. :D

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Solid pick.

That quivering voice thing she does is really annoying.

This is an old GWAE show with the Wizard discussing 1/2 parlay cards. The parlay card discussion starts about 12 minutes in. It doesn't last long.
It doesn't explain anything not in the WoV posts but somebody might want to spend a few minutes listing.

Wiz uses the term basis point jn the forum posts but doesn't really explain what he means. It took me a while to figure out what it meant while reading the forum posts. He explains it here a little more clearly.

A basis point is what gamblers call 1 cent on a money line. -110 is 10 basis points better than -120.

http://www.slot-machine-resource.com/podcasts/shak4.mp3

Bosox about the UNKewl one:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bosox

Seriously who would give a fuck if you died today?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

And the true tell? Him wishing death to AP's who just don't fit the mold he concocted about himself.

Who does that?

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https://i.imgur.com/NRMp2CEh.jpg


And then, lying hypocrite UNKewlJ asks for someone to be removed from the forum for wishing death on people...

https://i.imgur.com/njA456Kh.jpg

and then does the same himself.

https://i.imgur.com/DXheyhEh.jpg

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MDawg

Basically, this hypocrite whatever he accuses others of, you may be assured that he's done himself first, and worse.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

You guys do realize that, during and after the years listed by mickey, there were some rules changes significantly affecting the ubiquity (look up "ubiquity," mickey) of the 3 and 7 point margins?

Please tell me you all knew that.

LOL.

Why do you think Mr. Walters, in his book, used historical rather than current data in his how-to chapters? I mean, Jesus, this stuff is goddamn obvious. It didn't occur to anyone to check it out?

You guys...if you didn't notice this shit, God bless you. You really need to be locked up for your own protection.

Final word: you guys treat sports betting as if it's in-perpetuity coin flips. It is so dumb, inappropriate, and flat-out wrong from any mathematical perspective. Mind-bogglingly wrong.

Over and out. Seriously, why should I be correcting mickey crimm's wayward gambling? The guy is like Rain Man. Rain Man as a cab driver.

By the way, I addressed the dates of Walters' charts and opined on the why's of that, at the Johnson City Men's Book Club meeting regarding Gambler by Billy Walters. Mickey should have taken up my offer to fly him in for the meeting. He might have learned something.

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Still haven’t received a response from you on my NFL challenge.
Bet every regular season game @$100.
You get to make every pick.
I get an extra 2 points on the dog when you pick the fav.
I get a 2 point discount on the fav when you pick the dog.

Remember, I’m going up against your expertise. You should crush me. Your time to shine. Show everyone how good you are. They ain’t coin flips, right?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Be sure to look around for machine glitches while you're there.

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Will do. ;)

This is a perfect example of you being blinded by hate and bias. After we completed our play on the blackjack glitch, and I was able to talk some about it and our experience, some other players like mickeycrimm and others (not going to look right now) confirmed that there are such glitches on machines, and the electronic blackjack games seem to have more than their fair share of them.

We stumbled upon one. Made s bit of money. Hate and bias just won't allow you to accept that.

BTW, I received an email from someone late last week, again claiming there are more machines still out there that have not been fixed or whatever the terminology is. He even gave me a specific location of one he claims to have played last week. he was not someone I am familiar with, but seemed credible. But we did our thing. Not going to go running around searching every machine in every out of the way corner of the country.

---

Pretty generous for a guy to cold contact you with the specific location of an actively glitched machine.

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The guy's wealthy, and he'd rather see money drop into kew's pockets. Everyone does this when they run across glitched machines. They figure why not share the wealth? It's the one mistake I made with the DU bug. I should have found someone I didn't know and gave him the goods. Especially if he were a queer.

Imagine the rewards.....

The reason kew wishes the people who expose his lies and embellishments dead is because of his own weak heart and diseased blood issues. It'd be no surprise if one day soon the aids-infected fairy simply disappeared from the internet--thereby making all online interactions laced with respect and dignity. And while the meaningless little twit, who accomplished exactly nothing in life rots away in a very deserving grave, I will proudly linger above, pissing on his burial site with 9-1-2" of solid hose that will make him roll over and over again--wishing he were still able to play out his foolish choice that did him in all those years ago.

Until then--and it won't be long for such a diseased nobody--we can all rejoice in his continued humiliation as a bona fide phony on the internet.

The hostilities from this Rob Singer and Mdawg can only be explained by bitterness of having had their gambling "stories", which defy reality, (the math and the way casinos operate) exposed.

Smurgerburger: I have no idea if the person that contacted me last week was wealthy or not. He didn't say, I didn't ask. As a matter of fact, I didn't even respond except to thank him for contacting me. I didn't feel the need to post everything he said, but apparently, he travels to different areas for business and visits casinos when he can looking for a variety of advantage plays. I will go ahead and label that as a recreational AP.

His contacting me was not to share this latest location, as a matter of fact, he didn't mention the casino, only the area. But there is only one casino in that area. He said he was there last week and found this machine, played it and extended his trip a day to play a second day. He also said this was the second of these machines he has found on his travels, the first being one that we also played and I know for a fact was shutdown a month ago. He must have been in that area and played it before us for a couple days.

I believe, don't know for sure, but believe, the purpose of contacting me, was to inform me there are more machines than I had originally thought and that there are still some active (not fixed) in less popular locations. Several weeks ago just after the play ended for us, I received a communication from someone in California, claiming an active machine in a location that wasn't on my list.

My brother and I were working off a specific list of locations we had gotten hold of. We weren't blindly scouring every corner of the country. I always though a reasonably strong possibility of more machines than on our list. That is all these both these people have done is inform me there were more locations than I originally was aware of. And if you believe this latest guy, and I have no reason not to, it is possible there are still one or two out there that can be played. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if our resident traveling AP, mickeycrimm, runs across one of these in one of the out of the way locations he visits. Maybe he already has and isn't saying so.

I wasn't even going to bring this up. I was contacted a week ago. I only did mention it because YOU made the comment that I should look for new machines, so I thought I would mention that someone claims there are still machines (at least one) to be played. But like everything else, you guys just turn everything into trolling, trolling, trolling.

From UNKewlJ, more

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MDawg

SChiZoPHreNiC UNKewl PYsCHo babble

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in a desperate

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AccountInQuestion

Neverending quest for street creds on the internet.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I was contacted a week ago. I only did mention it because

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by MDawg

Always the same UNKewl pattern:

1. Post some nonsense.

2. Is challenged.

3. Fictionalizes about someone or other who
-wrote to him about it
-did the same play
-is aware that UNKewlJ did whatever it is UNKewlJ is claiming he did
-was seen doing the same play.

It's never enough that he did something, he has to also create some lies surrounding corroboration (that always center around unnamed, unknown, never to be revealed players in his fable).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

There is a clear trend that has developed now. All of KewlJ's implied associates are turning out to be other invented characters in his years of lies. ...RIP

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At least I have succeeded in getting Mdawg to stop posting his bullshit story and claims that have the potential to harm other players. he hasn't posted anything gambling related in 6 months.

Now he is just another bitter, old angry dude, attacking and trolling, the likes of a Rob Singer and blackhole. Welcome to THAT club, Mdawg. That is where you always belonged. The bitter, old losing gambler trolls club. :cool:

I just think it's nice that you have multiple people feeding you information about glitched machines with seemingly no expectation of recompense.

What a nice world we live in.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

I just think it's nice that you have multiple people feeding you information about glitched machines with seemingly no expectation of recompense.

What a nice world we live in.

---

Although I see your sarcasm, I find it neither particularly nice, nor useful. A couple people have informed me that there were (note the past tense) more machines out there than I originally thought, or the list we were working off of. For all I know the locations these two people mentioned, one last month, one last week were shut down with their play. Or shut down immediately after they played. All they have conveyed is that there were more machines than I was aware of, something I always though a strong possibility.

Now if someone were to contact me telling me there is a cluster of locations in one region, like the upper midwest, and the games were still active, I would be on a plane by the end of the day. THAT would be nice! I don't see comments of "hey I played a machine you didn't know about last week and it may or may not still be active" as particularly nice.

But I also recognize, your comment was only maent as a troll.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

At least I have succeeded in getting Mdawg to stop posting his gambling chronicles

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I post about my session reports in Vegas only when I am playing in Vegas.

Reality has never been a stumbling block for you. All of your posts are fiction so why would it matter if you are actually playing or not?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Seedvalue

you are a very good fictional storyteller lol KJ is a fictional Author masquerading on gambling boards as a sophisticated multi table blackjack savant. :

You don’t make a living playing blackjack tho. That the problem I have with you. Instead of just coming clean and saying you have sugar daddies some that like you others you have extorted you keep up the charade.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

KewlJ a lot of what you write could be total fiction. You're definitely someone who isn't adverse to lying on forums if it suits you to do so.

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SmurgerB, I would like to recap yesterdays activities on this forum. I work up, posted on this forum, entertaining myself, feeding you trolls, while the cleaning lady was doing her thing. I was also making my sports bets for the day. Early afternoon, I went out to lunch and put some decent coin in playing video poker at 2 casinos, hopefully that will draw some decent future mailers. I posted for an hour or so early evening and then went out playing blackjack for 6 hours.

In between a few hours of posting, I worked on 3 of my 4 AP income streams so far this year, sports betting, blackjack table play and video poker mailers hustling. I can't give a number of profit or anything because some of it (blackjack play) is variance) and some involves future returns (VP mailer play). But I accumulated some good EV, that will turn into profits if it didn't already.

Now it looks like you trolls, Mdawg, Singer, and you specifically Smurgerburger, did nothing but post on the forum all day. Smurgerburger seems to be logged in every single time I visit the forum. Do you trolls have any life outside of trolling at VCT? :cool:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MDawg

I post about my session reports in Vegas only when I am playing in Vegas.

Reality has never been a stumbling block for you. All of your posts are fiction so why would it matter if you are actually playing or not?

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Oh boy! The clown who tells us:

casino allow him to spread $100-$5000 playing double deck FOR 10 HOURS winning $60 grand, and applauds him


tells us: Several casinos reversed his trespasses

tells us: He won almost every day for 5 years, while getting comped high end suites and the casinos don't care

tells us: he won millions over a 7 month period when the casino records show him in the red

is going to tell me about reality. :D


The fact is that my basic claims, nothing defies the math. No where do I say I have some magic potion that I sprinkle before playing that allows me to win -EV games (Rob and his special plays). Nowhere do I say that defies the way the Las Vegas casinos and casino industry works. I even have explained techniques I use to get around drawing heat and such.

NOTHING DEFIES REALITY, THE GAMBLING MATH, NOR THE WAY CASINOS OPERATE.

I have lied about minor details or changed some minor facts and timelines, locations to protect my identity THAT is all.

So don't talk to me about reality, Mr "Pope of Las vegas".....NOT!

You made up fantastical gambling stories and claims.....same as Singer. That defy the Math and the was casinos work. And now you are pissed that some real players, not just me, KNOW you made up a story. Get the fuck over it!

Winning is...getting a 10X Multiplier response (or even...more than one 10X Multiplier response ) from the perennially UNKewl one.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ozzy

He's very UNKOOL and will remain so, till the end of time. Nothing can ever make him cool whatsoever !

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Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MDawg

hand cocked onto his side, the bent elbow and the high pitched whiny voice complaining, "Now wayyyyt a minute, Misterrrrr."

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