Baltimore at KC - Under 46.5 -115 (46 -110 ok)
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Baltimore at KC - Under 46.5 -115 (46 -110 ok)
Lost by 0.5 points.
Today:
Tennessee +174 at Chicago
Seattle -6 -110 vs Denver
Detroit -4.5 -107 vs Rams
Probably firing Jets on Monday too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Todd, if you had bet Seattle Tues/Wed, it was a -4 some places, so your timing not impeccable here. You should have won this game.
I have this rule about rookie high-profile QBs starting at home for the first time, especially when it's a large market home team versus a small market road team. I don't bet against them. Call it conspiracy theory. Call it smart. Blame it on dumb luck. I don't care. But that Titans/Bears game looked odd, to say the least. Got the home folks all jazzed for the new QB. Probably sell some jerseys today.
Interesting observations RED, only question is your large/small market points. Why is that your thinking and what are your large market teams?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Todd, if you had bet Seattle Tues/Wed, it was a -4 some places, so your timing not impeccable here. You should have won this game.
I have this rule about rookie high-profile QBs starting at home for the first time, especially when it's a large market home team versus a small market road team. I don't bet against them. Call it conspiracy theory. Call it smart. Blame it on dumb luck. I don't care. But that Titans/Bears game looked odd, to say the least. Got the home folks all jazzed for the new QB. Probably sell some jerseys today.
Last year I bet the unders on passing yards week 1 for the rookies and split because CJ destroyed the number. This year I passed and missed an opportunity as Nix, Williams and Daniels all went under.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozInteresting observations RED, only question is your large/small market points. Why is that your thinking and what are your large market teams?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Todd, if you had bet Seattle Tues/Wed, it was a -4 some places, so your timing not impeccable here. You should have won this game.
I have this rule about rookie high-profile QBs starting at home for the first time, especially when it's a large market home team versus a small market road team. I don't bet against them. Call it conspiracy theory. Call it smart. Blame it on dumb luck. I don't care. But that Titans/Bears game looked odd, to say the least. Got the home folks all jazzed for the new QB. Probably sell some jerseys today.
Last year I bet the unders on passing yards week 1 for the rookies and split because CJ destroyed the number. This year I passed and missed an opportunity as Nix, Williams and Daniels all went under.
One thing I got dead right was Stroud. Prior to the 2023 draft, when asked who was the best potential NFL QB out of the last couple of years of rookies, I unhesitatingly said Stroud. I have some friends who play high stakes fantasy, and they consult me (in a sometimes comprehensive and detail-oriented fashion). I told them to draft Stroud. It's from watching so much college football. Some QBs are stat mirages; some are not.
None of the rookies are going to burn it up anything like Stroud. Not close. If one of them puts up two-thirds of his numbers, I'll be surprised. Nix can play, especially for a bad team, but he's basically Marcus Mariota 2.
I don't have some formal system, Boz. It's just something I've noticed over the years as a caveat. Basically, it goes something like this. If more people make a lot more money if A happens than if B, then I do my best to not bet B unless absolutely necessary.
1-1-1 on those games
Tennessee blew 17-0 lead, sadly
Seattle was behind at 1H but got ahead 13, then gave up a late TD, and as redietz said, I could have had a better line (though it was 6 for a long time)
Detroit pick was lucky. Down 20-17, they got a final seconds FG, then won flip, then scored TD due to mostly short rushes.
I was going to bet Jets but dragged, and now McCaffery is officially out. Line dropped. Still like it.
Jets +158 at SF
8 scoring drives for SF, yea that wasn’t good for the Jets. But at least Chrissy Mitchell was there to enjoy the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Seattle -3 -110 at New England
Philadelphia vs Atlanta - Under 45.5 -105
Cleveland vs Giants - Under 38.5 -110
Carolina +215 at Vegas
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nice picks Dan - 3 wins in a row
actually equal to a little more than 4 in a row ats in terms of dollars won due to your gutsy pick on the Panthers
maybe a crushing year for you like you've had in the past
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an early under pick for week 4
Commanders/Cardinals u 49.5_________the highest total for the week
Commanders are averaging 20.5 - Cardinals 27.3
but the Cardinals only scored 13 yesterday - glta
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sorry Dan - didn't mean to put my pick in your thread (above) - it's a dupe by mistake
please delete that one and this one too - too late for me to edit - thanks
Chicago -3 -108 vs Rams
Atlanta -2.5 -110 vs New Orleans
Pittsburgh vs Indy - Under 40.5 -110
1-2, winning only Chicago. Atlanta pick lost by 0.5.
----
Tonight
Miami -2.5 -115 vs Tennessee
Miami/Tenn - Under 38 -110
Dog Sunday:
Carolina +175 at Chicago
NY Jets +120 vs Minnesota (London)
Cincinnati +125 vs Baltimore
Bonus:
Seattle -7 -115 vs NY Giants
One more:
Jacksonvillle -3 -120 vs Indy
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I have to mention this, as Carolina cost me big time, but not in the usual way. I played some Fan Duel teams and used a Burrow/Chase combo, which scored through the roof. Unfortunately, to make the salary cap, I chose the Carolina defense, which scored a ... hold the applause ... minus three. LOL. Mother fucker.
That defensive performance cost me thousands, as I also had the (cheap) Carolina back, who had a good day. I had what amounted to an all star squad with that Carolina defense. I netted a grand total of about a hundred bucks. I needed anything but a minus three. That is so bad, it's funny.
I would not have won mega-money because Jackson also had a killer day, and many folks had him, but I would have won a fair amount playing $9 teams. That is the third time in my life I had awesome teams and scored negative with a defense. Just goddawful.
Jacksonville -128 vs Chicago (-1.5 ok)
Jax/Chi under 44.5 -110
Tennessee vs Indy - Under 43 -110
Lost both Jax picks. Jaguars were so bad in all ways.
One more:
Green Bay vs Arizona - Under 47 -105
Cleveland vs Cincy - Under 41.5 -110
NY Giants vs Philly - Under 43 -110
Rams +135 vs Minnesota
Won the Rams pick above.
This week:
Tua is BACK
But is that a good thing? Many feel he should retire, for his own good. It is not clear how well he'll play. It's not clear if he will be rusty. It is not clear if the whole concussion thing will be a psychological barrier.
On the other side, we have the surprising Cardinals. They have NOT had an easy schedule! They've been up against the Lions, 49ers, Redskins, Chargers, Rams, Bills, and Packers. And somehow they're 3-4, including beating SF at home.
Maybe Tua will return to form and will lead Miami to a great second half of the season. But I don't think that's going to happen this game.
Arizona +175 at Miami
Also throw these on the pile:
Jacksonville +175 vs Green Bay
Seattle vs Buffalo - Under 45.5 -110
Houston vs Indy - Under 45.5 -110
Cleveland +9 -120 vs Baltimore
4-1 last week, only losing Jax (barely).
Let's keep it going with NFL... 5-1 in past 6 for me, with two nice dog wins.
No dogs this week.
Atlanta -3 -110 vs Dallas
Tennessee vs New England - Under 38.5 -105
Cleveland vs Chargers - Under 42.5 -103
3-0 last week.
Currently on 8-1 NFL heater
Let's keep it going
New Orleans +168 vs Atlanta
NY Giants -6.5 -110 vs Carolina (London, 6:30am PT)
Denver +7.5 -112 at Kansas City
Won New Orleans and Denver, lost Giants last week.
This week:
Cleveland -119 at New Orleans (BOL -- up to -1.5 spread ok)
Las Vegas at Miami - Under 43.5 -105 (Bovada)
Maybe more later
Results so far:
Week 1:
Baltimore at KC - Under 46.5 -115 (46 -110 ok) - L -1.00
Tennessee +174 at Chicago - L -1.00
Seattle -6 -110 vs Denver - TIE
Detroit -4.5 -107 vs Rams - W +0.93
Jets +158 at SF - L -1.00
TOTAL: 1-3-1 (-2.07)
Week 2:
Seattle -3 -110 at New England - TIE
Philadelphia vs Atlanta - Under 45.5 -105 - W +0.95
TOTAL: 1-0-1 (+0.95)
Week 3:
Cleveland vs Giants - Under 38.5 -110 - W +0.91
Carolina +215 at Vegas - W +2.15
TOTAL: 2-0 (+3.06)
Week 4:
Chicago -3 -108 vs Rams - W +0.93
Atlanta -2.5 -110 vs New Orleans - L -1.00
Pittsburgh vs Indy - Under 40.5 -110 - L -1.00
Miami -2.5 -115 vs Tennessee - L -1.00
Miami/Tenn - Under 38 -110 - L -1.00
TOTAL: 1-4 (-3.07)
Week 5:
Carolina +175 at Chicago - L -1.00
NY Jets +120 vs Minnesota (London) - L -1.00
Cincinnati +125 vs Baltimore - L -1.00
Seattle -7 -115 vs NY Giants - L -1.00
Jacksonvillle -3 -120 vs Indy - TIE
Total: 0-4-1 (-4.00)
Week 6:
Jacksonville -128 vs Chicago (-1.5 ok) - L -1.00
Jax/Chi under 44.5 -110 - L -1.00
Tennessee vs Indy - Under 43 -110 - W +0.91
Green Bay vs Arizona - Under 47 -105 - TIE
TOTAL: 1-2-1 (-1.09)
Week 7:
Cleveland vs Cincy - Under 41.5 -110 - W +0.91
NY Giants vs Philly - Under 43 -110 - W +0.91
TOTAL: 2-0 (+1.82)
Week 8:
Rams +135 vs Minnesota - W +1.35
Jacksonville +175 vs Green Bay - L -1.00
Seattle vs Buffalo - Under 45.5 -110 - W +0.91
Houston vs Indy - Under 45.5 -110 - W +0.91
Cleveland +9 -120 vs Baltimore - W +0.83
Total: 4-1 (+3.00)
Week 9:
Atlanta -3 -110 vs Dallas - W +0.91
Tennessee vs New England - Under 38.5 -105 - W +0.95
Cleveland vs Chargers - Under 42.5 -103 - W +0.97
Total: 3-0 (+2.83)
Week 10:
New Orleans +168 vs Atlanta - W +1.68
NY Giants -6.5 -110 vs Carolina - L -1.00
Denver +7.5 -112 at Kansas City - W +0.89
Total: 2-1 (+1.57)
Week 11:
Cleveland -119 at New Orleans - L -1.00
Las Vegas at Miami - Under 43.5 -105 - L -1.00
Total 0-2 (-2.00)
I've been very streaky, going 2-10-2 from Weeks 4-6, but then 11-2 in weeks 7-9.
Unusually, I had 4 ties in the first 6 weeks!
Through it all, I'm up exactly 1 unit!
(Keep in mind, all bets are one unit.)
GRAND TOTAL: 17-17-4 (+1.00 unit)
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Dan - thank you very much for posting the grand totals here and in the NBA thread
this makes it much more interesting for me to follow - and I'm too lazy to do it myself
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You better pick the Lions -7.5 today or I'm gonna be pissed!
You'll be pissed.
All the sharps in the world love Indy.
I'm not kidding. This is one of the biggest differences I've seen between public betting (Detroit) and sharp betting (Indy).
It's even jumped to +7 from +8.
The books really, really want you to go with the mighty Lions and just lay one TD.
I'm going half/half on this:
Indianapolis +292 vs Detroit (0.5 units)
Indianapolis +7 -105 (Bovada) (0.5 units)
Doesn't matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
My sheets on a two-team parlay with one winner already in.
I'm freerolling.
Two totals:
Tampa Bay at NY Giants - Under 40 -110
Tennessee at Houston - Under 41 -105 (Bovada)
Just one today:
Indianapolis at New England - Under 42 -110
Fairly cold day, 10 mph wind.
Lost yesterday.
Tonight:
Cleveland at Denver - Under 41.5 -105
Don't feel too bad. I needed Under 42 1/2 in the Race to the Super Bowl contest at Heritage. Won the first three totals this week by half a point each. This one made up for them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Not sure the last time somebody in the NFL threw for 500 yards and lost...if ever.
Interesting question? I would have assumed most higher passing yard totals were losses, as team are trailing pass and teams winning try to run out the clock.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
But internet search shows a mixed bag. One source says there have been 27, 500 yard games with teams losing 12. Another has the numbers at 25 games with 11 losses. Tonight's game won't be added to the mix, as Winston officially had 497 yards.
I had the over, but ONLY because Druff was so late with posting his pick. Joe Fortenbaugh (espn) had over as his best bet and I like to tag along with him, but I waited to see if Druff or Daly at PFA was going to go under, in which case I would have not wagered. 5 minutes before kickoff with no Druff or Daly pick, I went with Fortenbaugh's over. So I guess I owe credit to Druff for posting his picks 3 minutes before kickoff. I am not sure why he does that, but I am sure it is intentional.
I wouldn't want Winston as my QB, even as a back up. He is good when he is good, but the interceptions, just too much. 30 last year in 17 games. Come on. No team can overcome THAT. same with tonight. Good for 90% of the game. But 3 int's, 2 for TDs more than offsets that. It would have taken a 600 yard game to overcome those ints.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgAxelWolf already publicly and privately stated that he debunked all of UNKewlJ's fraudulent sports bets claims.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Minnesota -6 -110 vs Atlanta
Miami -6 -115 vs NY Jets
My big game today is Carolina +13.5 against my Eagles. I rarely bet against the Birds but it is just too many points. Carolina has been playing better last month. I think the Eagles will win but Carolina will hang around. I could also see a backdoor cover with a late Carolina score.
So that said, it will probably be a blowout. Lol
Good call above on the Panthers.
Hear me out -- I like the woeful Cowboys tonight.
- Jake Ferguson BACK
- Cowboys defense seems to have improved over the past 2 games
- Cowboys have, in general, looked a lot better the past 2 games
- Bengals have only beaten the Raiders, Browns, Panthers, and Giants -- all teams with 2-3 victories total. They have yet to beat any team except the very bottom of the barrel.
- Dallas is at home and you get dog money
Dallas +198 vs Cincinnati (+4.5 ok)
Lost Dallas on an awful beat at the very end of the game.
Today:
Tennessee vs Cincinnati - Under 46.5 -110
Denver vs Indy - Under 43.5 -110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Two things:
1) I teased that Titans/Bengals Under myself. Ouch and double ouch. Holy mother.
2) That awful Dallas beat you mentioned got me the exact score of the Monday Night game, which YouWager rewards by splitting 10K up among everyone who got it. One man's horrific beat is another man's lucky-as-hell financing of some steak dinners.
That was a terrible loss, by the way. Ridiculous.
How about this one. Not a terrible bad beat, but I will call it an annoying beat.
Washington/New Orleans over 44. Saints score with no time left to make the score 20-19. Kicking the extra point ties the game and I still have a reasonable chance for game to go over in Overtime. Going for 2 point conversion and the win and I lose whether they make it or not. Thet went for 2 points, failed and I lost.
In this era of decisions driven by analytics, in 2024 NFL teams are hitting on 2 point conversions at an astonishing low rate of 31%. So if you go for 2, you have a 31% change of winning, you kick the extra point and go to overtime each team has a roughly 50% chance of winning. So going for 2, bucks the analytics trend and by a pretty wide margin. Is that the right call?
And interestingly enough, last year 2023, NFL teams hit the 2 point conversation at a 55% clip. So last year going for 2, might actually have been the right decision.
Lost both above, though the Denver one lost by 0.5 and was on pace to win the whole way.
Soon:
Las Vegas vs Atlanta - Over 44.5 -110
San Francisco -2 at Miami
Arizona -5 -115 at Carolina
Pittsburgh +125 vs KC (+2 ok)
NY Giants +7.5 -115 vs Indianapolis
Dallas +295 at Philly (Hurts OUT, Pickett starting)
Dallas/Philly - Under 38 -110
Buffalo vs NY Jets - Under 45.5 -110
Philly -6 -110
Redskins have a ceiling
How many units are you up or down for the season?
Do you have a season-long record tracked somewhere, or is it more of a casual posting of picks?