I made a stupid bet

Here I'm loving the Angels I had won a lot of money on them until I made the stupid mistake of betting against them Thursday and I wish I kept rolling on them, it would have been a great ride. So I went crazy thinking they're going to win the world series because of their 8 game streak. So I bet the max on them winning the world series and now I realize they get paid the same odds for merely winning the pennant, +20,000 for both. I have to cancel all the bets and bet on the pennant instead. I'm going to contact the book and see how they explain this paying the same +20,000 odds for winning the World Series and +20,000 odds for merely winning the pennant( beating the Yankees). I believe +80,000 odds of them winning the Worls Series is fair. They'll be big dogs to the Dodgers if they can get better pitching.

You need to be much more discerning/careful/intentional when betting. I will be stunned if any book allows you to cancel this. Getting the best odds for anything is your responsibility. Futures odds change, obviously, and the books honor them as printed, so this isn't some kind of parimutuel thing. Half the art form to betting futures is shopping until you drop and getting the best numbers where and when available.

While it's highly unusual, the book can have pennant/WS odds the same. It's up to you to actually read them.

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Originally Posted by redietz

You need to be much more discerning/careful/intentional when betting. I will be stunned if any book allows you to cancel this. Getting the best odds for anything is your responsibility. Futures odds change, obviously, and the books honor them as printed, so this isn't some kind of parimutuel thing. Half the art form to betting futures is shopping until you drop and getting the best numbers where and when available.

While it's highly unusual, the book can have pennant/WS odds the same. It's up to you to actually read them.

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Thanks RED, was going to post the same thing……in my own, less considerate way.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

So I bet the max on them winning the world series and now I realize they get paid the same odds for merely winning the pennant, +20,000 for both.

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If 20k for the series is bad, 20k for the pennant could be good. Other sportsbooks are in the 8-10k range.

I'm looking at "make playoffs" bets, and I like that both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering yes/no with -110 juice.

Of course you'd be tying your money up, but I see multiple arbs just as I'm looking now:

Brewers +610 (FD yes)/-575 (DK no)
Giants +110 (FD yes)/-105 (DK no)
Padres -115 (DK yes)/+116 (FD no)
Royals +138 (FD yes)/-135 (DK no)

You could bet one side of a pairing only, if you figure out which book is more wrong.

Broadening out to other sportsbooks, I'm finding much wider arbs on the playoffs bets. But the 5-month time lag is very inconvenient, and I'm not sure I have access. In Nevada, Boyd offers most of the FanDuel lines -- but not all of them.

Also, I'd have to be sure of the rules to verify that I'm betting exact opposites. For example, one book says "make the playoffs" while another says "reach the playoffs." I think those are synonyms, but I have to be sure.

Yes I could cancel the bets and I have. Unfortunately the automatic limit to bet is half what I could bet for the world series. There is a note to contact support if you want to bet more, but I haven't had time yet. Apparently lots of money going on LA Angels to make the playoffs, May 22nd was +1500 and now +1100. All I can say is yes I've never bet sports before because it isn't smart unless you know something, so hopefully I'll stop.

Is this irony or what? Lol. My friend just canceled his World series bets and made them +20,000 American League pennant for $75 his limit and I went to do the same and the odds changed from +20,000 to +7500. That's a peach. So I just bet my world series bets again. I was going to be hesitant and not bet to make the playoffs but I want to get these bets in, so I bet +7500 max anyway.

I bet $300 +7500 and now the odds of pennant are +4000 @espn bet.

They're playing the Yankees starting memorial day in a 3 game series. None of this will matter much until my theorized trades come in later for the Angels. This is what I'm betting on, improvement, realization of abilities and later trades to full weaknesses.

All things considered, I'm maxing out my AL west +3000 odds.

The Angels. You are playing with us right?

Yes the Angles have won 8 in a row to climb back to .500. That means they were 8 games under .500 before this "streak". Of the 8 games won in a row, 5 were against the A's and Marlins, two pretty bad teams. :rolleyes: So you are hanging your hat on a 3 game sweep of the LA Dodgers who are seriously banged up pitching wise right now.

Have you considered: that the Angles team batting average is .228, 13th in the American League out of 15 teams, ahead of only the Texas Rangers and the Chicago white Sox.

That the Angles pitching team ERA is 5.01, 13th in the American league, ahead of only the A's and Orioles.

And That the Angels fielding percentage is 13th in the American league ahead of only Boston and the White Sox.

So the angels are near the bottom in hitting, pitching and fielding. What else is there?

That the Angels run differential is -47, 4th worse in the American League. And the 3 teams worse than them are the 3 teams in LAST place in each division. \

That is a lot of holes to fill come trading deadline. :D

The Angels will NOT make the world series. The Angels will NOT make the playoffs. The Angels will NOT finish at .500 (where they currently sit). The Angels will battle the A's for LAST place in the American League west and probably the second worse record in the American league behind the White Sox.

There are only a handful of teams that really have a shot at the world series worthy of a wager. Teams that are built for a deep playoff run. In the American League that is the Yankees (and I am not even so sure about them), the Tigers, and Royals. In the National League it is 4-5 teams. The Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, with Padres and Diamondbacks having outside chance. Anything else is throwing your money away. And thinking a team is going to pick up multiple pieces at the trade deadline is bonkers. You think teams are just giving away good players for nothing? :cool:

I just got a lecture from my other real life friend walking me off the mountain. I certainly accept your criticism and because I am getting views contrary to my own, I am reconsidering. At this point I just let things stay as they are i was just about to say how I was acting on some fallacious stuff. So I peek at other things and not dig any deeper. I've probably made a sucker/self-hysteria bet. It's certainly a bad bet because I made them on my own and not a smart bet. So welcome back KJ, pretend MD and MC aren't even here.

It's been a long time since I watched baseball and I'm just learning today how much things have changed.

Angels is the Outfield won't help this bet.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Kew will AGAIN return because he's weak, his useless life really has no meaning without this place, and he loves to lie. He also craves the humiliation that comes with it all. A true deplorable in every sense of the word.

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Why we can’t have decent threads and discussions here.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

The Angels. You are playing with us right?

Yes the Angles have won 8 in a row to climb back to .500. That means they were 8 games under .500 before this "streak". Of the 8 games won in a row, 5 were against the A's and Marlins, two pretty bad teams. :rolleyes: So you are hanging your hat on a 3 game sweep of the LA Dodgers who are seriously banged up pitching wise right now.

Have you considered: that the Angles team batting average is .228, 13th in the American League out of 15 teams, ahead of only the Texas Rangers and the Chicago white Sox.

That the Angles pitching team ERA is 5.01, 13th in the American league, ahead of only the A's and Orioles.

And That the Angels fielding percentage is 13th in the American league ahead of only Boston and the White Sox.

So the angels are near the bottom in hitting, pitching and fielding. What else is there?

That the Angels run differential is -47, 4th worse in the American League. And the 3 teams worse than them are the 3 teams in LAST place in each division. \

That is a lot of holes to fill come trading deadline. :D

The Angels will NOT make the world series. The Angels will NOT make the playoffs. The Angels will NOT finish at .500 (where they currently sit). The Angels will battle the A's for LAST place in the American League west and probably the second worse record in the American league behind the White Sox.

There are only a handful of teams that really have a shot at the world series worthy of a wager. Teams that are built for a deep playoff run. In the American League that is the Yankees (and I am not even so sure about them), the Tigers, and Royals. In the National League it is 4-5 teams. The Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, with Padres and Diamondbacks having outside chance. Anything else is throwing your money away. And thinking a team is going to pick up multiple pieces at the trade deadline is bonkers. You think teams are just giving away good players for nothing? :cool:

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Great post KJ!

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Originally Posted by The Boz

Great post KJ!

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Thanks Boz. Only thing is that I forgot about and left the Cubs out of my analysis. The Cubs will/should win the NL central. Should be the division winner with the 3rd best record, so They won't get a bye. But with the hitting they have, they have at least as good a chance as the Diamondbacks and Padres. I put them right with the Mets as maybe the 3rd or 4th best team in the NL. I don't think they have the pitching to win a WS, but, if you are a futures player (which I am not), might be worth a shot at the right odds. definitely better than betting the Angels. :D

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

The Angels. You are playing with us right?

Yes the Angles have won 8 in a row to climb back to .500. That means they were 8 games under .500 before this "streak". Of the 8 games won in a row, 5 were against the A's and Marlins, two pretty bad teams. :rolleyes: So you are hanging your hat on a 3 game sweep of the LA Dodgers who are seriously banged up pitching wise right now.

Have you considered: that the Angles team batting average is .228, 13th in the American League out of 15 teams, ahead of only the Texas Rangers and the Chicago white Sox.

That the Angles pitching team ERA is 5.01, 13th in the American league, ahead of only the A's and Orioles.

And That the Angels fielding percentage is 13th in the American league ahead of only Boston and the White Sox.

So the angels are near the bottom in hitting, pitching and fielding. What else is there?

That the Angels run differential is -47, 4th worse in the American League. And the 3 teams worse than them are the 3 teams in LAST place in each division. \

That is a lot of holes to fill come trading deadline. :D

The Angels will NOT make the world series. The Angels will NOT make the playoffs. The Angels will NOT finish at .500 (where they currently sit). The Angels will battle the A's for LAST place in the American League west and probably the second worse record in the American league behind the White Sox.

There are only a handful of teams that really have a shot at the world series worthy of a wager. Teams that are built for a deep playoff run. In the American League that is the Yankees (and I am not even so sure about them), the Tigers, and Royals. In the National League it is 4-5 teams. The Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, with Padres and Diamondbacks having outside chance. Anything else is throwing your money away. And thinking a team is going to pick up multiple pieces at the trade deadline is bonkers. You think teams are just giving away good players for nothing? :cool:

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Suckscockontuesdays is almost as stupid as Dumb Perignom.

Yeah this was very foolish a bet altogether. I knew the feeling jumping the gun, but it was too late. They could make the playoffs as a wild card, but not likely until 2026.

I did just figure out the Angels were the ones that beat Pittsburgh in Dan Druff's pick in early May. Later I thought I made money with the Angels and that's not true because they won in the bottom of the 9th costing me about $6,000 in tickets I'd cash if the Angels lost that day.

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Originally Posted by MDawg

UNKewlJ has all the personality of a wooden rocking chair.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

I did just figure out the Angels were the ones that beat Pittsburgh in Dan Druff's pick in early May. Later I thought I made money with the Angels and that's not true because they won in the bottom of the 9th costing me about $6,000 in tickets I'd cash if the Angels lost that day.

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We are only 50 games into a 162 game season. Not yet 1/3 of the way. Some teams are just now starting to round into true form. This includes teams like the A''s that got off to a surprisingly good start, as well as your angels and their 8 game win streak. Other teams that got off to a slower than expected start will start to win. Don't read too much into those early results. It is a long season and teams have a way of reverting to form and what was expected of them based on talent.

One thing I have learned is rather than trying to identify who is going to win certain games and days, just identify the bad teams and fade them most days. If you can't identify teams that are going to be the bad teams on your own, read what other people that really follow the sports, teams and players say. And when a team that is projected to be bad gets off to a surprisingly good start or vice versa, don't be fooled. That is a prime opportunity to fade them.

Maybe that is my blackjack roots, but it is kind of like blackjack and variance associated with blackjack. With enough trials, results will usually get to where they should be.

Here are several teams to keep an eye on IMO. Not winning but an eye on them losing. Minnesota Twins, St Louis Cardinals, SF Giants. All have over-performed what was expected to date. All are 6-9 games over .500. I expect all to be below .500 by seasons end. I have a futures wager that the Twins will NOT make the playoffs. I am not betting against these teams every day, but select days, especially if they are favored, I am fading them.

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Originally Posted by Mdawg

I'm a loser.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UBQ4noMV68

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Here are several teams to keep an eye on IMO. Not winning but an eye on them losing. Minnesota Twins, St Louis Cardinals, SF Giants. All have over-performed what was expected to date. All are 6-9 games over .500. I expect all to be below .500 by seasons end. I have a futures wager that the Twins will NOT make the playoffs. I am not betting against these teams every day, but select days, especially if they are favored, I am fading them.

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So how did fading these 3 teams work out today?

Balt +110 over (Cardinals) WIN
Detroit -110 over (Giants) WIN
Tampa Bay -115 over (Twins) WIN

Don't worry about missing the boat. There will be many more days like this, as these 3 teams, all with winning records make their push to below .500, maybe even down to .400

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Originally Posted by MDawg

AxelWolf already publicly and privately stated that he debunked all of UNKewlJ's fraudulent sports bets claims.

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Originally Posted by MDawg

What’s crazy about all this is that any normal person would realize that his ever changing story and desperate attempts to put out fires is just confirming that his story is false, and making him look even worse, but a sociopathic liar can’t help himself, and keeps lying just to cover up other lies.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Here are several teams to keep an eye on IMO. Not winning but an eye on them losing. Minnesota Twins, St Louis Cardinals, SF Giants. All have over-performed what was expected to date. All are 6-9 games over .500. I expect all to be below .500 by seasons end. I have a futures wager that the Twins will NOT make the playoffs. I am not betting against these teams every day, but select days, especially if they are favored, I am fading them.

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So how did fading these 3 teams work out today?

Balt +110 over (Cardinals) WIN
Detroit -110 over (Giants) WIN
Tampa Bay -115 over (Twins) WIN

Don't worry about missing the boat. There will be many more days like this, as these 3 teams, all with winning records make their push to below .500, maybe even down to .400

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Congratulations. The universe has been telling me to look at something else besides gambling and that's what I need to do. Slot AP is very difficult with too many machines tightened up and FP reduced by anti-AP measures.

Dead money lol. I mean the Angels suck and they need other teams to have bad luck and for the Angels to have good luck.

I bet LA Angels +4000 and greedily +3000. Now they're +5000 and I feel obligated to bet more. I have noticed everyone in the AL West isn't really good and the Mariners have bad pitching right now. Yes, I've been told everyone expects the Mariners to win the division, this might even be an opportunity to bet Houston and not LA Angels. Oh and I bet the A's again without noticing and it's locked in. Only was a small bet with bonus bets and that's why it isn't cancelable.

I'm really impressed with how they're playing at least evening the score tonight in a division game. Houston is super hot right now for sure though. Just noticed Baltimore swept the Mariners and the White Sox and now midway through the A's series, they could be swept. The As do actually stink pretty well. Bogdan pitching well but Kocha name only last 3.1 innings and giving up 4 earned runs. I dont know, the Mariners are ahead of their expected record, but do the Mariners just stink and aren't the Bella Da Bells who always roll on the Angels before now? Houston I figured a better favorite than Seattle. The way my friend described Seattle being expected to win the West, blah, blah, they're pretty good, and said it in such a way I didn't think he believed what he was telling me. Seattle gives up runs almost as bad as the Angels right now with poor pitching stats.

The Angels have used up 4 pitchers so far. This game will hurt the Angels so they better win. Seems like this game will lose them a game down the road or get them back into a losing streak. The Angels coach I noticed expressed some sighing/deep breath moments in these games, but hopefully he will be seeing a change this year. He is just used to being let down and he wants this team to win and not fall apart on their potential. It's kind of a story if a movie, we would only have some hope but not really good clues of what was to come.

Oh Houston has the #1 team pitching right now and the Angels are almost at the bottom as a team. I did not capitalize on Houston when I was suspecting them of dogs becoming favorites. I can't afford long term bets right now. I remembered seeing only +130 and now it's -170 for Houston to win the division, and we may as well say congratulations.

Added later: If LAA beats Seattle tomorrow and Houston wins, they'll both be tied for second in AL West by 4.5 games and both 2.5 games back from the wild card. You probably need two rainouts in NY for LAA to split the series because they're probably good enough to beat the Yankees 2/4 if the game is 6 innings if LAA ahead.

Swept by the Orioles and beat the Yankees in extra innings 1-0. I didn't see a sweep loss and I didn't see any Yankee wins when the Angels were on a bad luck streak. It would be great if they surpass expectations more. The Angels don't have the juice to run through the Yankees 3/4 or 4/4. I suppose Angel long balls give them a chance for more luck even if they don't excel over the Yankees usually. I bet a token amount and the Angels win though.

Anybody check out the results from the "Rocky Road" angle since I mentioned I would not bet against them on the road?

I had a theory about the lines regarding them, but only for the road games, and that theory is holding up thus far. I will keep tabs and announce if I think it's time to abandon the idea.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Anybody check out the results from the "Rocky Road" angle since I mentioned I would not bet against them on the road?

I had a theory about the lines regarding them, but only for the road games, and that theory is holding up thus far. I will keep tabs and announce if I think it's time to abandon the idea.

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I did bet on them when they won their 13th. Otherwise I will not be betting much, but I do love baseball. I might even buy a set of baseball cards and catch up. About the Rockies, the odds just don't seem worth it. If it is true they are more likely to win on the road, then their major weakness must be the long ball for your theory to even be worth considering. About the Angels, they have won the series against the Yankees 3/3 with the last game tomorrow and they play Houston in a 3 game series next. I would think the owner would want to take a chance instead of dismantling if the Angels can win 3/4 of their next 4 games. So either sweep the Yankees and win 1 against Houston or lose tomorrow to the Yankees and get 2/3 from Houston. I didn't think the Angels would win a single game against NYY, but Houston is maybe the real world series favorite, idk.

I did just notice the Angels do have one of the best records in MLB against teams over .500. That's weird luck.