NY Jets +130 vs Pittsburgh
The fading of Aaron Rodgers begins.
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NY Jets +130 vs Pittsburgh
The fading of Aaron Rodgers begins.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
This will be my first and last NFL commentary.
The selection is fascinating. I say that because Rodgers has a +37 ATS record lifetime. His tenure with the Jets was a disaster, and the interpretation was that Rodgers was over the hill. Or fragile. Or both.
However, I will go out on a limb and say this -- there is very little wrong with his arm.
Normally, I would be all in versus a +37 ATS guy deemed over the hill. I would cite value. But after the last two years with the Jets, I think the perception of Rodgers has taken a hit beyond the reality, so I suspect the Steelers knew what they were doing. In other words, the value may lie ON him, not VERSUS him.
And as I said, I saw nothing really wrong with his arm; it's still live. This isn't Peyton Manning, willing and thinking his way to a SB title after his arm was gone. I will go out on a limb and say Rodgers' arm is distinctly better than Brady's the last two Brady years, and Brady was still dangerous as hell with a decent enough arm and still-perfect placement.
It's one thing to bet against a pop culture hero; value is there, built in. It's another to bet against a pop culture anti-hero supported by a minority, which Rodgers' covid stance made him. The value, in other words, may not be there.
So I would be very careful laying a course this season through a bunch of Aaron Rodgers icebergs. The Steelers have become a mystery team with he and Metcalf on the field together. They play in a division with the Ravens and Bengals, so not much chance of backdooring into the playoffs. They'd have to earn it and get semi-great QB play to do so. That also means Rodgers could be a divisional dog more often than not, which will be interesting.
Baltimore -1 -110 at Buffalo
Atlanta -105 vs Tampa
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Circa Survivor picks (just FYI):
Arizona (3 tickets)
Jacksonville (2 tickets)
Denver (1 ticket)
I used Denver in LMS. This week, I used the Rams. Not sure I like the idea of following the Titans around like a puppy dog, but I don't really have a better theory.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Steelers, in retrospect, have serious limitations. No third-down receiving RB/slotback, really. No dominant tight end when you really need two decent ones. WR corps is fine; rest of the receiving options are C minus at best.
Rodgers has his work cut out for him. If they get themselves a third-down scatback, they solve a lot of woes.
New England +123 at Miami
Atlanta +150 at Minnesota
NY Jets +6 -115 vs Buffalo (+5.5 -110 ok)
Cleveland at Baltimore - Over 45 -110
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Survivor
Tickets 1-3: Dallas (last week Arizona)
Ticket 4: Baltimore (last week Jax)
Ticket 5: Arizona (last week Jax)
Ticket 6: Arizona (last week Denver)
New England +123 at Miami - WIN +1.23
Atlanta +150 at Minnesota - WIN +1.50
NY Jets +6 -115 vs Buffalo (+5.5 -110 ok) - LOSS -1.00
Cleveland at Baltimore - Over 45 -110 - WIN +0.91
----
Much better result this week -- 3-1 and up 2.64 units.
This still leaves me slightly down in this early season: 3-4, -0.36 units
Remember, each game is always 1 unit bet.
Oh, and all of the Survivor tickets won, but boy... that Dallas game... one of the most insane games I've seen in my life.
If you watched it, especially the 4th quarter and OT, you'll know what I'm talking about.
Lucky to escape with a W there.
Arizona also almost blew a 27-3 3rd quarter lead at home versus a horrible Carolina team. Shameful.
But it all ended up ok.
I thought of you during the Dallas game. Holy mother -- that'll knock a decade off your life, and I don't have a decade to give.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I used the Rams for my Survivor plays. Was not happy at halftime. They were much the better but were blowing the game. The yardage must have wound up 400-200 or something like that. I tried to save the Ravens for a rainy day.
I think I came out ahead marginally for the week. It's within $100 either way. Will do the formal tally tomorrow. The only NFL I had was Patriots as back half of a teaser at +9, so that worked out, but it was ridiculous. Nobody stopped nobody, and there were special teams TDs galore. Sick stuff.
Brandon Aubrey's 64 yard field goal was the longest in history to send a game into overtimeQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
it was an amazing kick - it went way over the bar - it actually hit the stands - I think the kick was powerful enough to have easily cleared at 75 yards - if the goalposts were another 11 yards back
"The longest field goal "this season" was a 70-yard kick by Cam Little of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2025 NFL preseason against the Pittsburgh Steelers on August 9, 2025. While this kick is recognized as the longest in NFL history, it does not count as an official regular-season record because it occurred during the preseason. The longest successful regular season field goal in NFL history remains Justin Tucker's 66-yarder from 2021. "
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pwbnx0t18zw
.
While I am sure the NFL was thrilled with this game, as this is the kind of game they desire, it clearly showed just how troubled the Dallas Cowboys are. They barely beat a bad Giants team in overtime at home, with Russel Wilson who has done absolutely nothing for 3 years had the best game of his career.
Terrible, terrible sign going forward for the Cowboys and Jerry World. :rolleyes:
Well, I did the tallies and came out +$7 for the week -- enough for a Starbucks coffee (not latte) at the Golden Nugget. Had a conservative week, really fucked up actually, big-time, by passing on an impossible-to-win wager that won. Just terrible.
Pretty funny; about 12K in wagers (very conservative week) and plus seven dollars. Now, if I were an "AP," I'd count the $30 in cashback from the Heritage site on my winning ledger, but I don't do that stuff.
But good enough to say, "I won Week One. I won Week Two. I won Week Three. And I won Week Four." LOL. If you knew what I passed on, it would make you sick. It would make The Riddler sick. I should be shot, really. When I decided to pass on the wager in question, I asked myself, "Why are you trying to do the impossible? Who do you think you are -- John Wick?"
And on we go.
DOG DAY
Las Vegas +130 at Washington
LA Rams +170 at Philadelphia
New England +108 vs Pittsburgh
Detroit +195 at Baltimore (Monday)
BONUS FAVORITE PICK
Indianapolis -4.5 -110 at Tennessee
After early results, sitting in 35th out of a couple thousand in the Race to the Super Bowl. Used Buffalo in my LMS. Not terribly creative, but I didn't want a road team this week in the LMS.
I played nothing in the NFL this week. Was supposed to plug in a teaser with Cowboys/Bears Under, but the hell with it. The Dallas defense looked pitiful last week, so I passed.
Tied for 29th in the Race to the Super Bowl. Used the Ravens (no spread) and the Over tonight. I hate taking Overs, but I took them for all four featured totals this week. Lost with the Over last night or I would be in the top ten. I hated taking the Over, but my two-minute drill evaluations pushed me into an Over play last night. Very stupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Results Week 3:
Las Vegas +130 at Washington - LOSS -1.00
LA Rams +170 at Philadelphia - LOSS -1.00
New England +108 vs Pittsburgh - LOSS -1.00
Detroit +195 at Baltimore - WIN +1.95
Indianapolis -4.5 -110 at Tennessee - WIN +0.91
Week 3: 2-3, -0.14 units
Total: 5-7, -0.50 units
Brutal, brutal loss with the Rams, as I'm sure a lot of you saw. Up 26-7, gave up the lead in the final 2 minutes, down 27-26, had an easy FG to kick for the win, and got blocked. Spread +3.5 bettors really got screwed as it was returned for a TD!
So I'm slightly down so far, but I'm feeling good about my NFL picks because only 3 of them were clear losses (Jets in week 2, Raiders in Week 3, and New England in Week 3).
I had 3 super close losses to go 0-3 in week 1, and all three looked like they were going to be almost sure winners at one point. That Rams loss on Sunday was a complete screw job. I could be 9-3 and up a ton of units because of how many moneyline dogs I've picked. At the same time, none of my wins were lucky, and I've won 3 (almost 4) decent sized dogs already, and none of those 3 ended up close.
I'm not one to sugar coat things. If I'm scuffling (as I have been for awhile in MLB), I admit it. Here in NFL, the picks have been good, the results have been mediocre.
We move on...
What is very disappointing is Survivor.
I had all 6 tickets coming into week 3. I talked myself out of Seattle and talked myself down from Tampa. Originally it was going to be Seattle 3, Tampa 2, Atlanta 1. It ended up Atlanta 3, Green Bay 2, Tampa 1.
So I have 1 ticket left, after that disasterous Green Bay loss, which just like the Rams, happened because of a last-second blocked kick, and a late collapse of a clear lead.
As I said to my friend today (we both bet Detroit) when the Ravens were trying to come back down 38-24 in the final 2 minutes: "If I somehow lose this one, I'm quitting NFL forever."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I haven't seen a game like Rams/Eagles since about 30 years ago, Denver had a game-winning FG blocked and run back for a TD on the final play. I did not have that game, but my best partner/client at the time, Bob Hurst (president Golden Eagle Distributing), had it for decent money and was left with his head spinning.
Now I need an LMS this week. I used up Buffalo last week, so that is not an option. I guess it's Houston or Detroit.
Played live poker all night, but here are some last minute picks on NFL today.
BTW I have Texans on Survivor.
Atlanta -3 +100 vs Washington (I'm annoyed I didn't get 2.5 because I meant to post/bet this 2 days ago)
New England -5.5 -107 vs Carolina
I only have 1 Survivor ticket left after losing 5 last week, so I need Texans to win.
I debated and used the Lions. Texans were my second choice.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Listening to the Aaron Rodgers post-game interview. This guy actually makes the Steelers dangerous. They still need a speed back and/or a speed slotback and/or a speed tight end. They look like dinosaurs on offense, especially with that monster tight end who looks like he should be a WWE guy. By dinosaurs I mean big and muscular and physically imposing but not elusive or flat-out fast. With the Ravens struggling mightily on defense and Burrow hurt, the Steelers might have a legit playoff shot. When they get a banged-up offensive line across from them, their defense really smells blood.
Surprised how Rodgers has been okay so far. I thought this season would be a complete fail, given his age and his clear regression in prior years.
Of course, it was easy to play with confidence when the team was facing Carson Wentz.
Glad to see the Texans win my last Survivor ticket without drama, and both of my spread bets winning. This puts me in the black in NFL this season -- finally.
I went 2-0, +1.93 units. so now I'm 7-7, +1.43 units overall.
As I mentioned before, with all the late-and-close losses, I've actually picked a lot better than that, so I feel like I've got a good shot at finishing this season a winner.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I'll disagree on two points:
1) I saw no real regression by Rodgers in terms of actually throwing the football. He can no longer run as he did, but his boots and sprint-outs seem fine. Stats are just stats. Who you are playing with determines what "kind of player you are (i.e. what kind of stats you have)" more than people realize. If, after this season, you try to analyze WR stats, for example, you could interpret Ja'Marr Chase, Ridley, and Tyreek Hill as overpriced. Their QBs determine their numbers and their effects. That ties into:
2) Wentz is probably as good as (or better than) the starting Viking QB at this point. Jefferson, who had not done anything until Sunday, might agree.
6:30am PT game:
Cleveland +161 vs Minnesota (London)
Cleveland/Minnesota - Under 35.5 -110
Other games:
Baltimore vs Houston - Under 40.5 -110
NY Jets +100 vs Dallas (+1 -110 ok)
BTW my Survivor pick is Indy
I split my two Survivors. One has Indy. One has Arizona. I don't love either one.
Viking offensive line has been ravaged. We'll see what they can do.
Given the two totals Todd took, I'm tempted to mention a rule I almost never break. In any event, I need Over 33 as the back half of a teaser for Hou/Baltimore. That is all I did today outside of low-cost fantasy football.
Okay, with 11 minutes to go in the third quarter, my teaser is a winner.
Now let's see if anyone can guess the rule of thumb I used regarding teasing Overs in the NFL. It had two qualifying plays today which happened to oppose both of Todd's Unders. I used only the second of the plays, which I plugged in on Thursday as the back half of a teaser. I should probably be shot for not using the Viking/Brown teased Over, but such is life. I was overly concerned with injuries to the Viking offensive line.
If anyone guesses it, I will award the Marvel Comics famous no-prize as compensation. If no one guesses it, I will keep the formula a secret, along with the address of The Riddler, who originally came up with this angle.
One of my LMS entries bit the dust, with a miraculous collapse.
But one survives. What I wanted to report to Todd was that, using the biggest sample size I have -- the BetOnline LMS -- we are to be commended for having any surviving entries. BetOnline began with 23K entries, and is down to 1750 pretty damned quickly. Stunning, really, to have 90+ percent gone this quickly.
Looks like Circa is a much tougher field than BOL, which doesn't surprise me.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Only 75.6% of Circa tickets have died thus far -- far less than the 92.4% gone at BOL.
The fact that only 1.9% of tickets were fired on the Eagles Thursday -- despite a touchdown favorite line -- shows you how sharp the Circa field has gotten. Even last year, the field was a lot weaker.
It seems like most Circa players have the basic strategy down at this point -- go for home favorites of decent size, try to pick teams without much future value, and watch the future schedule so you don't accidentally pick yourself into being stuck using underdogs late in the game.
I'm going ploppy style with Green Bay today.
I've never heard of teasing overs, though perhaps it could be +EV if the total line is low enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I lost all 4 picks last week.
Honestly I should've won both in the Cleveland game, but that's the way the ball bounces.
I'll post my picks for today shortly...
Seattle -110 at Jacksonville
Carolina +145 vs Dallas
Split bet: NY Jets vs Denver (neutral) +7 -105 / NY Jets +299
Arizona at Indianapolis Under 46.5 -110
Survivor: Packers
I also used the Packers. Could not make a case for saving them or using any other team in this spot.
Won for the week, which I'd be proud of except I middled a game and if I had not, I would have lost. So kudos to Missouri State and MTSU, which almost guaranteed a winning week as the first game played on Wednesday.
Yesterday was ugly, as I teased TCU, which gave up two defensive touchdowns. While that kind of thing may happen regularly in the NFL, in college, if you give up one defensive/special teams TD in a game, you have roughly a 12% chance of covering. You give up two, and you have about a 1.2% chance of covering.
But I survived the week with a profit. I have not done the final tallies yet, but had I lost with Hawaii (late) the week would have been pretty much a wash despite the middle. But Hawaii got it done, so that's seven winning weeks out of eight. I will take it.
By the way, two gigantic angles that I normally use point to the Cleveland Browns today. I refuse to take them. So we'll see if I was smart or stupid to pass. Usually I turn out to have been stupid. A team as publicly dysfunctional as the Browns is almost always a huge PR value. And I still cannot pull the trigger. If anyone can figure out why I am supposed to take the Browns today, using publicly available angles, I will award a No Prize. But nobody will.
Tennessee +170 at Vegas
(last minute)
You know, if the Steelers make the playoffs, they need a nickname. They have no speed whatsoever on offense, so it should be something the opposite of that Rams "Greatest Show on Turf."
Moved up to 22nd in Heritage's Race to the Super Bowl. Out of a couple thousand. Not sure why I moved up -- I was terrible. So I guess everyone else was worse. Need both Overs today, which I hate. I have pretty much done everything wrong and am 22nd. Very odd. There was one week I did a good job. Every other week has been pretty lousy.
I looked at this too, but decided not to fire (as you like to say). If I had seen that you were picking it (didn't see until too late) I might have tagged along.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
BUT really trying to pick a winner among 2 absolutely terrible teams is just a no win situation. (vomiting emoji).
as a side note, I was thinking if the Raiders lost this one, it might end Pete Carrols failed tenure. Not really Mark Davis's style to fire a coach mid-season (Gruden was a special situation with a lot of pressure to do so), but I just had a feeling he might say "enough" kind of early with this one. I guess we will never know. At least for a couple more weeks. :rolleyes:
Last week:
Seattle -110 at Jacksonville - WON +0.91
Carolina +145 vs Dallas - WON +1.45
Split bet: NY Jets vs Denver (neutral) +7 -105 / NY Jets +299 - WON SPREAD, LOST ML -0.05
Arizona at Indianapolis Under 46.5 -110 - LOST -1.00
Tennessee +170 at Las Vegas - LOST -1.00
Total: 2.5-2.5 (+0.31 units)
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This week:
New Orleans +183 at Chicago
New Orleans/Chicago - Under 45.5 -115
NY Jets vs Carolina - Under 41 -110
Dallas -119 vs Washington (-1 ok)
Minnesota +110 vs Philadelphia
Survivor: KC
I also used KC. I would have preferred to save them. I have the option of switching until game time, so will consider using Denver.
Biggest LMS sample I see is BetOnline, with 1358 left out of 23K.
I am ahead for the week heading into needing Over 33 of NYG/Den as the back half of two teasers. Will hedge at least 40% of it. If it loses, the week will be a wash heading into night games. I tortured myself yesterday. Had Over 34 Missouri/Auburn teaser. Was so disgusted at half (missed FGs) with the score 10-7, I hedged 80% of it trying to middle with an Under 20 1/2 second half. Game went to OT 17-17 after Mizzou got knocked out of FG range in the final minute with a sack and a penalty. Lost the hedge with 23-17 final.
Ugly, ugly, ugly. Hedged three-quarters of my NYG/Denver Over at halftime with Under 20 1/2. Used KC, thankfully, in the LMS and did not try to be tricky and save them for a rainy day.
Twelve percent of LMS entrants used Denver, so that will be interesting.
NYG/Denver game was ridiculous. When I eventually get knocked out of my LMS contests, I will look back and blame it on not using the Broncos this week.
Denver winning saves me the legwork of looking up who the last NFL team was to lose after scoring 30 points in a quarter. I will leave than to trivia buffs.
I have been terrible in Heritage's Race to the Super Bowl contest, but unbelievably sit in 16th place out of a couple thousand heading into tonight's games. I have no idea who people are taking, but evidently they are not doing well.
One person has thus far, for this week, gotten all the winners correct and gotten the totals correct for the prime time games also. That was something.
This is the last I'll report on this. I moved up into a mega-way tie for seventh. I was one game off the weekly prize, which was three people at 18-2 for the week. For those with Heritage accounts, just go to the Contests link and follow along the Race to the Super Bowl. I'm listed as redietz.
I won this about 10 years ago. My superior half tied for the title the following year, I think with four other folks.
I was so stupid to forget to bet Detroit last night. I had it down, meant to post it Monday afternoon. Figured I had til 5pm. Didn't look at the start time.
Didn't post it, didn't bet it.
Ugh!
I am interested to see if you have anything with tonights game, Vikings at Chargers. The line Chargers -3.5. Home field is 3 points, so they are basically saying these 2 teams, Viking with qb Carson Wentz are even. :confused: I have run 6 different sims which all say Chargers by a TD or more.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
What am I missing? (I mean unless the chargers come out in those all yellow head to toe uniforms again, which had to be the ugliest look in the history of the NFL :D)
Minnesota +149 at Chargers
Lost the Minnesota pick. Wasn't close.
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Two for today.
Note that one is yet another bet on a shitty team, so tread lightly. If you are iffy, take the spread instead of the ML.
New Orleans +177 vs Tampa
Indy vs Tennessee - Over 48 -110
Washington +10.5 -115 at Kansas City
Split the above... New Orleans laid an egg.
Well, I am officially eliminated from my LMS. I knew not using the Broncos the week of their miraculous 30-point fourth quarter would lead to my demise, which it did.
Meanwhile, I am tied for eighth in the Heritage Race to the Super Bowl Contest (out of a couple thousand). Usually, when I get myself into contention I stay there. We'll see how it goes. I lost the Houston total by half a point last week, so that cost me top five status.
And in BetOnline five-games-a-week NFL ATS contest, which is a snipe hunt kind of thing (why bet five games a week out of so few, and no totals?), I clock in with a modest but effective 22.5/17.5 record after eight weeks. Not very good, but enough to be 500th or so out of more than 10K, which is frightening.
In week-to-week wagering, I won Week One, Week Two, Week Three, Week Four (but not much), I lost Week Five, I won Week Six, Week Seven, Week Eight, Week Nine, and lost Week 10 (but not much). I am ahead Week 11, so we will see how it shakes out.
I lost so little Week 10 (split two teasers and missed an asymmetric middle shot by a point, and pushed an open teaser) that I briefly considered betting a dinner money prop Monday just so I could tally a "winning week." But I don't do that stuff, even for dinner money, so it was a losing week. I still haven't done the final tally, but it was about $30 in arrears, which is in the context of 10K or so in wagers.
That accounting where you emphasize winning weeks always lends itself to bragging about, as quoted in Whale Hunt in the Desert, eating like a bird and shitting like a bear. All that matters is the overall tally, really, but nice to pound along consistently if the season layout lends itself to that.
I took the Bengals, the following week, minus 6.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I checked in on the game and Cincy was up by 20 something.
I was not happy when I checked back at the Final Score.
Fucking Jets.
Yeah, and I'm not talking about Lose-A-Peg.
Nor West Side Story.
You are still fretting about THAT game? yeah I lost on that game too. I failed to take into account the emotional circumstances surrounding the Jets having a recent former long-term player die the day before at a young age of 41.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetI took the Bengals, the following week, minus 6.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I checked in on the game and Cincy was up by 20 something.
I was not happy when I checked back at the Final Score.
Fucking Jets.
Yeah, and I'm not talking about Lose-A-Peg.
Nor West Side Story.
But it is over. Move on. lol. I do volume wagering, working through the bonus money as quickly as I can at numerous books. Today I have 67 wagers going. No time to dwell. Wager, win lose, move on. :)
Two NFL picks for me this week.
Atlanta +189 at New England - Penix is back, and Patriots have padded their record by beating the Dolphins, Titans, Browns, Saints, and Panthers -- and they even lost to the Raiders. They have had a cakewalk most of the way. Look for a Falcons bounceback after last week's humiliating defeat to the Dolphins.
Las Vegas vs Jacksonville - Under 44 - Raiders are averaging slightly more than 14 points per game, which is 2nd worst in the NFL. Jax will miss Travis Hill, and their offense has scuffled badly the last two games anyway. I don't know who is going to win this shitshow, but I can't picture this being a high scoring affair. Despite the Raiders giving up 180 points in 7 games, they're actually in the upper half in several defensive metrics.
I got through the carnage-heavy Week 8 in Survivor by taking the Patriots last week. More than half the remaining field fell out due to the Bengals and Falcons losing. This week I'm taking Rams with all the ploppies.
Really bad luck with my NFL picks so far this year.
Today I lost my big dog bet on the Falcons by a missed extra point at the end of the 4th, and I lost my under after it was 0-0 most of the first half, and 9-6 at the end of 3. 27 points came in during the 4th.
Horrible.
My Rams survivor pick did win easily, so I move on to week 10.
Week 1:
NY Jets +130 vs Pittsburgh - L -1.00
Baltimore -1 -110 at Buffalo - L -1.00
Atlanta -105 vs Tampa - L -1.00
Total: 0-3, -3.00
Week 2:
New England +123 at Miami - W +1.23
Atlanta +150 at Minnesota - W +1.50
NY Jets +6 -115 vs Buffalo - L -1.00
Cleveland at Baltimore - Over 45 -110 - W +0.91
Total: 3-1, +2.64
Week 3:
Las Vegas +130 at Washington - L -1.00
LA Rams +170 at Philadelphia - L -1.00
New England +108 vs Pittsburgh - L -1.00
Detroit +195 at Baltimore - W +1.95
Indianapolis -4.5 -110 at Tennessee - W +0.91
Total: 2-3, -0.14
Week 4:
Atlanta -3 +100 vs Washington - W +1.00
New England -5.5 -107 vs Carolina - W +0.93
Total: 2-0, +1.93
Week 5:
Cleveland +161 vs Minnesota (London) - L -1.00
Cleveland/Minnesota - Under 35.5 -110 - L -1.00
Baltimore vs Houston - Under 40.5 -110 - L -1.00
NY Jets +100 vs Dallas - L -1.00
Total: 0-4, -4.00
Week 6:
Seattle -110 at Jacksonville - W +0.91
Carolina +145 vs Dallas - W +1.45
NY Jets vs Denver (neutral) +7 -105 (half bet) - W +0.48
NY Jets +299 vs Denver (half bet) - L -0.50
Arizona at Indianapolis Under 46.5 -110 - L -1.00
Tennessee +170 at Vegas - L -1.00
Total: 2.5-2.5, +0.34
Week 7:
New Orleans +183 at Chicago - L -1.00
New Orleans/Chicago - Under 45.5 -115 - W +0.87
NY Jets vs Carolina - Under 41 -110 - W +0.91
Dallas -119 vs Washington - W +0.84
Minnesota +110 vs Philadelphia - L -1.00
Total: 3-2, +0.62
Week 8:
Minnesota +149 at Chargers - L -1.00
New Orleans +177 vs Tampa - L -1.00
Indy vs Tennessee - Over 48 -110 - W +0.91
Washington +10.5 -115 at Kansas City - L -1.00
Total: 1-3, -2.09
Week 9:
Atlanta +189 at New England - L -1.00
Las Vegas vs Jacksonville - Under 44 - L -1.00
Total: 0-2, -2.00
Total: 13.5-20.5 (-5.7 units)
I've been better than the record indicates. A lot of really bad luck, including the last 2 picks in Week 9.
Fortunately my NBA season has negated most of these losses (so far).
At first glance, the Browns/Jets game looks like a low scoring shitshow, especially in the 10 mph wind.
However, note this. Browns games have beaten 37 points in 5 of 8 contests, and Jets games have seeing scoring over 40 in 6 of 8, including four over 55.
The Jets defense has been terrible, ranking 30th. They've also traded Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. Browns defense has been great at home, but oddly bad on the road (where they are here).
Most importantly, BetMGM reports that the 4th most bet total is Cleveland under, which started at 37.5, moved to 38, and is back at 37.5. Ploppies don't like betting under, but they love this one because the two teams are bad, yet the Browns have a reputation for strong defense.
You don't need a huge scoring fest to win this one. A score like 21-17 will get it done.
Cleveland at NY Jets - Over 37.5 -110
Now if you want an under with two not-so-good teams, I give you the surprising 5-4 Panthers and the horrendous Saints.
Do you know that neither team has scored over 16 points in their past 3 contests?
Carolina vs New Orleans - Under 38.5 -110
Won both easily.
---
Today:
NY Jets at New England - Under 43 -110
Barely won that under.
Not much interests me in NFL this week, aside from my Steelers Survivor pick.
But this one is okay:
Jacksonville +135 vs LA Chargers
Won the Jax pick easily.
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Okay, here are a lot of picks. Let's hope I don't get destroyed. Tail at your own risk.
New Orleans -2 -105 vs Cleveland
I didn't think it could be possible for me to pick NO as a fave this year. Yes, Cousins is that bad.
Detroit -13 -110 vs NY Giants
In 1991, I spread a rumor in my college dorm dining commons that they put chalk in the macaroni and cheese, and it was believable. This one is even chalkier.
Cincinnati +7.5 -110 vs New England
Somehow Flacco has been really good at home, and despite the 9–2 record, Patriots rank in the bottom five against the pass in Defensive DVOA.
Arizona +115 vs Jacksonville
Jax has done better than expected this year, but they're now overrated. Cardinals should win this one outright at home.
Dallas +145 vs Philadelphia
Eagles offense just hasn't been clicking this year, and Jalen Hurts is 11-18 lifetime ATS against sub-.500 teams.
Las Vegas -3.5 -105 vs Cleveland
Shedeur Sanders looked about as bad as he could possibly look last week. Cleveland's fairly good defense at home just hasn't translated to the road, and they're 0-5 overall while away.
Las Vegas vs Cleveland - Under 36 -110
Vegas is averaging 15.5 points per game. Sanders is a fiasco and will make a bad Cleveland offense (16.2 ppg) even worse.
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Still in Survivor, picked Seattle
Through week 9: 13.5-20.5 (-5.7 units)
Week 10:
Cleveland at NY Jets - Over 37.5 -110 - W +0.91
Carolina vs New Orleans - Under 38.5 -110 - W +0.91
Week 11:
NY Jets at New England - Under 43 -110 - W +0.91
Jacksonville +135 vs LA Chargers - W +1.35
Week 12:
New Orleans -2 -105 vs Cleveland - L -1.00
Detroit -13 -110 vs NY Giants - L -1.00
Cincinnati +7.5 -110 vs New England - W +0.91
Arizona +115 vs Jacksonville - L -1.00
Dallas +145 vs Philadelphia - W +1.45
Las Vegas -3.5 -105 vs Cleveland - L -1.00
Las Vegas vs Cleveland - Under 36 -110 - W +0.91
Total weeks 10-12: 7-4 (+3.35 units)
GRAND TOTAL: 20.5-24.5 (-2.35 units)
Sadly I'm out of Survivor, picking Eagles on Thursday. All 4 favorites lost on Thurs-Fri, so I was screwed unless I picked a dog.
Okay, let's hope this Sunday's NFL slate goes better than last week.
4 picks this time instead of 7.
"Every home dog has its day"
Cleveland vs SF - Under 35.5 -110
Tennessee +230 vs Jacksonville
NY Jets +157 vs Atlanta
Pittsburgh +150 vs Buffalo
Went 2-2, winning Cleveland under and Jets moneyline.
Record now 22.5-26.5 (-1.87 units)
Cleveland vs Tennessee - Under 33.5 -115
Baltimore vs Pittsburgh - Under 43 -110
Kansas City vs Houston - Under 41.5 -110
Tampa vs New Orleans - Under 41.5 -110
Atlanta +6.5 vs Seattle -110
Green Bay -6.5 vs Chicago -110
Results as of 12/6: 22.5-26.5 (-1.87 units)
Week 14 results:
Cleveland vs Tennessee - Under 33.5 -115 - L -1.00
Baltimore vs Pittsburgh - Under 43 -110 - L -1.00
Kansas City vs Houston - Under 41.5 -110 - W +0.91
Tampa vs New Orleans - Under 41.5 -110 - L -1.00
Atlanta +6.5 vs Seattle -110 - L -1.00
Green Bay -6.5 vs Chicago -110 - W +0.91
GRAND TOTAL (24.5-30.5, -4.05 units)
Lost the first four of the day, barely won Green Bay (7 point margin), and fairly easily won the KC under.
Almost every game went over this week, so going 1-3 on unders was actually better than most people did betting unders.
Chargers -102 vs Philadelphia
Going to fade the team which knocked me out of Survivor until they show they aren't in a shame spiral.
Chargers can pretty much lock up their division with a win tonight in LA.
Was vascillating on this, but I'm going to fire.
Atlanta at Tampa - Under 43.5 -110
Won Chargers above, lost Atlanta under.
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This Sunday:
Minnesota +220 at Dallas
Kansas City -6 -110 vs Chargers
KC/Chargers - Under 41.5 -105
Las Vegas at Philadelphia - Under 38.5 -110
Through 12/7: 24.5-30.5, -4.05 units
End Week 14: Chargers -102 vs Philadelphia - W +0.98
Week 15:
Atlanta at Tampa - Under 43.5 -110 (Thursday) - L - 1.00
Minnesota +220 at Dallas - W +2.20
Kansas City -6 -110 vs Chargers - L -1.00
KC/Chargers - Under 41.5 -105 - W +0.95
Las Vegas at Philadelphia - Under 38.5 -110 - W +0.91
GRAND TOTAL: 28.5-32.5 (-1.01 units)
Seattle vs Rams - Under 42 -110
Lost the Seattle under.
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Green Bay at Chicago - Under 45 -110
NY Giants +123 vs Minnesota
Buffalo vs Cleveland - Under 41.5 -110
Lost both.
As much as I hate doing this, because the damn quarterback is 44...
Indianapolis +185 vs San Francisco
Lost last 3, two of which were close. Won Bears/Packers under though.
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Today:
Dallas -9 at Washington
Lost barely on that one after 21-3 lead. Ugh.
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Today:
Indy +200 vs Jacksonville
Las Vegas vs NY Giants - Under 40.5 -105
Tennessee vs New Orleans - Under 39.5 -110