Originally Posted by
regnis
I would agree with Redietz that +EV when it comes to sports betting, or even my beloved horse betting, is misleading. I don't know what type of work, study, analysis, etc. Redietz uses, but I'm sure he puts in a lot of time and effort. That, plus many years of experience, may allow him to win. But I do not consider knowledge, hard work, experience, etc. to create a +EV. You are still mathematically going against an edge.
My edge in horse racing was always my many years of studying breeding. That is not just knowing the hot sires. It means understanding what family lines when crossed with other family lines result in fast horses. But this edge has diminished anyway because everyone has books rating the stallions now--I used to have it all in my head. But to the point, I didn't ever consider my knowledge and experience as constituting a +EV.
Now, as a fairly large bettor, I am able to negotiate rebates that are higher than the general public can receive. I still don't consider a wager to be +EV, even where the rebate is as high as 11%, as the house take is still 20% or more. So while I have an advantage over other bettors in that I receive a higher rebate, I don't feel that makes it a + EV, at least not mathematically.