It's not written about VP, but it applies just the same:
http://scoblete.casinocitytimes.com/...rce=newsletter
Printable View
It's not written about VP, but it applies just the same:
http://scoblete.casinocitytimes.com/...rce=newsletter
"These ploppies reason that the short run is fundamentally different than the long run and that a player is therefore free to bet in any idiotic way since they are only experiencing the "here and now" of play."
Couldn't have described it any better. I guess this officially deems Singer to be a "ploppie".
I'm going to make a heavy philosophical statement here, so feel free to whack at it.
Dividing reality into compartmentalized segments is a very common and human way to deal with one's failures. We need markers, lines in the sand, some kind of signage that says going forward will be different. Catholic confession allows one to jettison the failures in judgement and behavior that previously accumulated. Inventing a way to play video poker that breaks reality into segments allows one to jettison the failures and losses of what one would prefer to consider the previous regime. It's tough when the regime is you.
When you've failed, whether it's silly religious confession or silly religious-dependent GA or AA, our culture actually promotes separating past and present, bad behavior versus good, by using rituals and by breaking reality into separate pieces and then closing the door on (conveniently defined) past chapters. Playing video poker that way could be an overriding metaphor for life in general. I failed playing a long, out-of-control time. Now I'll succeed day-by-day, session-by-session, with unerring discipline and righteous priorities. It sounds like something straight out of GA or AA.
Yes, it's all one long winding trip. But our culture doesn't really want us to see it that way.
Actually, our friend Scoblete was using this article to hide or camouflage his real purpose: to make you think that "dice influencers" have an edge and you should bet only on DIs.
The evidence of this is in this paragraph of his article which tells you that the long term is the reality:
Think about this: You must now bet for every single craps player on planet earth right this second. How do you determine what is or is not the best bet to make? Obviously, you use the math of the game to tell you that such-and-such a bet is the best one. You don't say, "Oh, heck, bet any way you like all you millions of players because it really doesn't matter to your bottom line."
What he really wanted to say, but he didn't want to come right out and say it, is this:
Craps is a negative expectation game and the more you play it the more you will lose. And the only way to beat the game of craps is to be a "dice influencer" (he says "dice controller") or to bet on "dice influencers" or "dice controllers."
Trust me, he doesn't care about math. He's just trying to sell you a class on influencing dice.
Wow, he sure did a great job. He never mentioned it once.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Alan, your psychic powers are amazing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
He's done this before. He always talks about the Math of the game in his articles, pointing out that the game is a negative expectation game, and he always talks about how you will lose on any bet and the house has the edge on every bet. That boosts his sales paraphernalia and claims that only dice influencers and dice controllers can beat the game.
Actually he's correct. The only way to beat the game of craps is by having some influence or control over the dice, but that's easier said than done. I doubt you can learn it after attending an $1,800 weekend school.
Arc, you need to understand the context of his articles and his marketing. No psychic powers needed. Just read his stuff. And it doesn't hurt if you attend the seminars either as I have.
Alan, I hate to break it to you but that is nothing but silly nonsense. Sure, the guy has some ideas about dice. So what. This article doesn't even touch on it. There's no way to read this is about dice influencing. Sorry.
We all have opinions. It doesn't mean everything we talk about is related to all our opinions. I think you are the one who is influenced here, and it's not by dice. It's by your own preconceptions. Just read the article and react to its contents, not something you imagine it to be saying. If you do that you will see this article is about the fallacy of short term thinking. That's it.
Arc, you're missing the point. The article has nothing about dice influencing-- correct. But the reason why the "DI Community" pushes the "math of the game" is not because they care about the math of the game-- it's because their "message" is that the only way to beat the math of the game is to use "dice influencing."
Go and pick up Sharpshooter's book on the subject -- the bible of "dice influencing." He spends chapters about the "math" of craps only to prove that there is no way to beat the game of craps using math. All of this is done for one purpose and one purpose only, to make you understand and ultimately believe that you can only beat the game using "dice control."
This is all part of their propaganda campaign. In this case, they speak the truth about math. And that is "part A" of their campaign. "Part B" is when they start to preach about "dice control."
I'm just pointing out that the real message in the article is not that he is concerned about math. The real message is that he wants you to understand that only buying into the "dice influencing culture" will turn you into a winner.
I've known these guys for over a decade (and they know me). I saw them mix up and serve the kool aid. I even had a few sips of it myself. In the case of the article you believe what he's saying which is what is setting you up to be a buyer of rhythmic rolling, dice influencing, dice control, "The Captain" and everything else that will follow.
Let me put it this way: the article helps him build credibility for the sales job.
Old Wise Jungle Saying: Most people who tell you the truth are doing it for the same reason most people don't tell you the truth.
It's a negative game so the only way to beat it would be from something that changes the game itself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
So ....Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Fine, accept part A and ignore part B. Simple.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Nothing about correctly understanding mathematical probabilities sells dice influencing. Sorry.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Just like nothing about the math sells special plays and a belief that win goals can change one's results. It takes a certain degree of gullibility in both cases.
Okay, so accept part A, it is correct. Just be aware that he writes about Part A (the math and how it's a negative expectation game) to he can sell part B -- his dice classes.
By the way, Sharpshooter's book goes into great detail about physics and even biology -- all true stuff -- to try to convince you that dice control can be achieved.
redietz got it when he wrote: "Old Wise Jungle Saying: Most people who tell you the truth are doing it for the same reason most people don't tell you the truth."
No one is arguing the math here... just the motive.