FreeplayAP tweeted Hex 3 as RIP

Tweet is here: https://mobile.twitter.com/freeplayA...80966513516545

“I tweeted RIP hex about two weeks ago. Glad to see everyone noticing“

Hex 3 is not RIP ... game is still beatable; we found 3 plays on the same machine that later had the 5K+ spins for Reel 3. What the nerf did was change the economics: $113 reset for progressive (at $0.80 wager) plus 150 bp mm is the floor value of the benefit side; the cost side was changed (cost per milestone was always dynamic and got changed). So that means the “moneyness” (used loosely here), e.g. ratio of benefit side / cost side changed as well.

This article gave us clues as to discern when game got nerfed at Thunder Valley back in July: http://jgi.camh.net/index.php/jgi/ar...view/3811/3825

Inferential Statistics is your friend.

Someone asked me to explain the “economics”.

When a slot manufacturer or gaming company changes something about their game that lowers the win rate, I call that a nerf. The change might be lower awards for a bonus round, e.g. rather than 75X or base bet, it is now 50X or a 33% (25/75) reduction.

In Econ 101, you should have learned about cost benefit analysis and break-even point. The following is algebra since it involves linear estimation or linear interpolation, etc.

Profits (gain, loss, etc) = Revenues - Cost
Btw, negative profits is a loss.

Had you studied Applied Economics, it’s
Profits = Revenue function less Cost Function

You then take the F.O.C. and set it equal to zero, e.g. the point that is tangent to the curve. So this is differential calculus. And I am not going to share how I derive estimates of revenue & cost functions.

Recall the cost of the milestones are dynamic. This mean you are working with stochastics.

Could you use linear estimations ... you need to understand convexity; for small changes, linear estimates are okay but break down for large charges.

In summary, we look at the benefit side & the cost side simultaneously to get a quick and dirty (e.g. back of envelope) analysis. We are not precise but at least we are in the ball park.

The ratio of [benefit side / cost side] (as opposed to one variable subtracting the other variable) gives an insight to the moneyness (used loosely here) because I care about ROIC and NPV, not commonly used by Scavengers. My background is investments and each “play” is considered an investment in my eyes. This is what helps me be an AP-grade scavenger.

One more thing, I wrote the algorithms that got coded for my games; I created the PAR SHEETS for those games. So I understand Par Sheets better than the average person.

Ok, one more time!

An example of Moneyness (used loosely) in Hex 3. Suppose you were chasing a reel with fixed monetary prize (gets really complex if chasing 2 or more milestone prizes).

Suppose you were chasing Reel 2 with a bonus of $8.00. The game is $0.80 so you would think the moneyness is $8.00 / $0.80 or 10X or viewed as “prop bet” of 10 spins or less (assumes worse case scenario of bricking on every spin or winning nothing in those ten spins from base game).

Sorry. That *IS NOT* how it works.

Moneyness is the ratio of [PRIZE / (Wager amount)] plus WTW.

Think of it as a regression model:

Y = alpha + Betahat1*(X1) + Betahat2*(X2) + error term
Where Betahat’s are coefficients
X1 is ratio of Prize to Wager amount
X2 is WTW

With CAVEAT not all WTW are created equal, e.g. not all 5K WTW have the same EV.

The other way is to use Option Math; price the “prop bet” as an option is much simpler.

Good luck.

PS now if the prize was $20 (vs $8), you would care less about WTW, respectively, because it now becomes a “prop bet” of 25 spins or less. A “prop bet” of 25 spins or less is a lot MORE valuable than a “pop bet” of 10 spins or less.

You have to quit flooding the forum with threads. There is no need for a dozen Hex threads. Only one thread is necessary. I'm going to ask Dan to dump all of your Hex threads into one thread. Hopefully, he will also tell you to knock off the bullshit flooding.