Dan Druff's NBA picks for 2017-18 season

This year I decided to change my entire approach to NBA betting.

Prior to this NBA season, I was simply like most of the other losing recreational sports bettors -- believing I had a "feel" for who would win, and betting accordingly.

Not surprisingly, it didn't go well.

I even tried hafltime betting strategies, and while initially successful, those also failed to produce consistent winning, so I backed off of that.

So finally, for the 2017-18 NBA season, I decided to tackle this problem using analytics and betting patterns. This does sometimes result in getting an inferior line (as often I bet late, after the action has already moved the line), but I also have a much clearer view of the game about to be played, the sharp/square action, and the sportsbook reaction to the sharp/square betting.

I mostly do unders and home underdogs, though sometimes I will also do others. (Yesterday, for example, I went over on Orlando, which easily won.)

So far, my record is a very nice 71-46-2, which is over 60%.

However, some of this was due to a super-hot pre-Thanksgiving start, where I went a staggering 44-20-1. So I'm only 27-26-1 in my last 54 picks, which may or may not mean anything. In my own defense, I will state that I knew there was no way I could maintain a pace like 44-20, and I also have avoided any kind of real losing streak this season. In fact, it has been very rare that I post 2-4 picks and don't win at least one. Most losing days have been the 0-1 or 1-2 variety.

I post these picks on my other forum (pokerfraudalert.com). Let me know if you would like to see them, and I will link you to that thread.

I will often post them shortly before game time, but usually try to get them up at least 30 minutes before the game starts. Typically I will post the picks at around 3:30pm PST, but not always.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

This year I decided to change my entire approach to NBA betting.

Prior to this NBA season, I was simply like most of the other losing recreational sports bettors -- believing I had a "feel" for who would win, and betting accordingly.

Not surprisingly, it didn't go well.

I even tried hafltime betting strategies, and while initially successful, those also failed to produce consistent winning, so I backed off of that.

So finally, for the 2017-18 NBA season, I decided to tackle this problem using analytics and betting patterns. This does sometimes result in getting an inferior line (as often I bet late, after the action has already moved the line), but I also have a much clearer view of the game about to be played, the sharp/square action, and the sportsbook reaction to the sharp/square betting.

I mostly do unders and home underdogs, though sometimes I will also do others. (Yesterday, for example, I went over on Orlando, which easily won.)

So far, my record is a very nice 71-46-2, which is over 60%.

However, some of this was due to a super-hot pre-Thanksgiving start, where I went a staggering 44-20-1. So I'm only 27-26-1 in my last 54 picks, which may or may not mean anything. In my own defense, I will state that I knew there was no way I could maintain a pace like 44-20, and I also have avoided any kind of real losing streak this season. In fact, it has been very rare that I post 2-4 picks and don't win at least one. Most losing days have been the 0-1 or 1-2 variety.

I post these picks on my other forum (pokerfraudalert.com). Let me know if you would like to see them, and I will link you to that thread.

I will often post them shortly before game time, but usually try to get them up at least 30 minutes before the game starts. Typically I will post the picks at around 3:30pm PST, but not always.

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I have a Bovada account with $1500 sitting there doing nothing. I don't bet big amounts but sure, I'd like to follow your betting line. I'd like to follow redietz betting line next year too if he ever gives up any picks.

Maybe if I remember, I will post the picks in this thread, too.

As I said, my hot streak was pre-Thanksgiving (44-20-1), and I've only been 27-26-1 since, so don't expect miracles.

But I'll try to remember to also post them here. Check around 3:30pm-4pm PST.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

This year I decided to change my entire approach to NBA betting.

Prior to this NBA season, I was simply like most of the other losing recreational sports bettors -- believing I had a "feel" for who would win, and betting accordingly.

Not surprisingly, it didn't go well.

I even tried hafltime betting strategies, and while initially successful, those also failed to produce consistent winning, so I backed off of that.

So finally, for the 2017-18 NBA season, I decided to tackle this problem using analytics and betting patterns. This does sometimes result in getting an inferior line (as often I bet late, after the action has already moved the line), but I also have a much clearer view of the game about to be played, the sharp/square action, and the sportsbook reaction to the sharp/square betting.

I mostly do unders and home underdogs, though sometimes I will also do others. (Yesterday, for example, I went over on Orlando, which easily won.)

So far, my record is a very nice 71-46-2, which is over 60%.

However, some of this was due to a super-hot pre-Thanksgiving start, where I went a staggering 44-20-1. So I'm only 27-26-1 in my last 54 picks, which may or may not mean anything. In my own defense, I will state that I knew there was no way I could maintain a pace like 44-20, and I also have avoided any kind of real losing streak this season. In fact, it has been very rare that I post 2-4 picks and don't win at least one. Most losing days have been the 0-1 or 1-2 variety.

I post these picks on my other forum (pokerfraudalert.com). Let me know if you would like to see them, and I will link you to that thread.

I will often post them shortly before game time, but usually try to get them up at least 30 minutes before the game starts. Typically I will post the picks at around 3:30pm PST, but not always.

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This is a top notch performance. There are a handful of college basketball savants who win convincingly most seasons, but to my knowledge there are no real NBA savants who churn out good performances the majority of the time. This has been an excellent performance, well beyond good or what anyone would reasonably wish for -- high volume and high profit. Congratulations to you, and I'd keep firing until and unless it takes a major stale turn. Really a super record.

Hopefully I don't jinx it by starting to post here. The rest of the picks were posted on my pokerfraudalert site, so I'm not lying about the record!

Charlotte -8 (Porzingis out)
Atlanta +0 -120 (up to -1.5 -110 ok) (Winslow, Dragic, Whiteside out)
Denver under 211 -115 (210.5 -110 ok)
Lakers +5.5
Lakers Under 218 (Curry out, Green out)

Also FYI, while my bets often at least somewhat mirror the action taken by the sharps, tonight is unusual in that 4 of the 5 are not bet heavily by the sharps, and only 1 (Lakers +5.5) is liked by the sharps.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Hopefully I don't jinx it by starting to post here.

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Funny, I was thinking this earlier today. As an AP, we generally don't believe in things like "jinxs", but I honestly though I wonder if Dan Just "jinxed" himself.....maybe I should bet the other way. :rolleyes: (I didn't)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Hopefully I don't jinx it by starting to post here. The rest of the picks were posted on my pokerfraudalert site, so I'm not lying about the record!

Charlotte -8 (Porzingis out)
Atlanta +0 -120 (up to -1.5 -110 ok) (Winslow, Dragic, Whiteside out)
Denver under 211 -115 (210.5 -110 ok)
Lakers +5.5
Lakers Under 218 (Curry out, Green out)

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Lost one (1) Dan. Boy you really suck! :rolleyes:

AND it should be mentioned that the one game you lost was a game you bet the under and the game went over.....in overtime. Had the game ended in regulation, you would have been a respectable 5-0. Well done sir. :) I predict tomorrow, you will have some people waiting for your picks. ;)

Yeah I deserved 5-0 on this one. I've been dogged by OT for the past week. Even my Denver under came 2 seconds away from an OT, but fortunately Westbrook drew a clever foul.

2/2 under picks today were tied with 2 seconds left. Unlucky! Fortunately the Denver one was avoided. Didn't get quite so lucky with the Lakers.

Record now 75-47-2 after a 4-1 day.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Even my Denver under came 2 seconds away from an OT, but fortunately Westbrook drew a clever foul.

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I saw that. Again, congrats.

Doesn't it seem like 'Totals' should be for just regulation? lol. You know what the worst is? College football. I've had games that I bet the under, and as the game was going along it was way under and then ends up being ties like 13-13. Three overtimes and 30-some points later, you lose your bet. That college overtime, starting at the 25 yard line doesn't seem right.

Edit: Actually, now that I think about it, I had a game like I just mentioned that I won this year in college football.. I bet the over, game was way way under, ended tie 20 points below the number. Went over in the second overtime. I guess it all evens out.

Doesn't even out for me because I mostly bet unders. Those tend to be the more exploitable lines, because books will often set a line too high, knowing they will get tons of action on the over anyway. The public loves overs, for the most part, because it feels weird to root for less scoring. That's not to say that blindly firing on unders is correct, but it's a lot easier to find lines where the under is likely to hit than where you can reliably say that about the over.

I have considered starting to hedge my under bets with small OT bets, but in the long run the juice will hurt me, so I hate doing that. But I'm getting tired of these great under picks getting ruined or near-ruined by OT.

I had a long drive yesterday and forgot to check for picks. I'm about to take a week off for Christmas so will try to keep up.

NBA

3 games, 3 unders:

Washington Under 218 (217 ok)
Sac Under 206.5 (206 ok)
Cleveland Under 216 -115 (down to 215 -110 ok)

Washington and Sac starting at 4pm PST

Went 1-2 above.

Record is now 76-49-2.

NBA:

Boston Under 200 (199.5 ok)
OKC -7.5 (8 ok, but -7.5 still exists on Bovada)
OKC Under 197.5 (197 ok)

May post more shortly.

Also:

Memphis +10
Detroit Over 197 -115 (197.5 -110 ok)

Question for Dan Druff: Did you start making these picks at the beginning of the season or at some point into the season?

The reason I ask is at 76-49-2 if you started at the beginning of the season that is about 2.5 picks per day. In the short 3 days here, you seem to be at higher pace than that, with 5 picks Monday, 3 Tuesday and 5 today. Tuesday only had 3 NBA games and you picked them all. :confused: I am just wondering if after some success you are picking more games than earlier on?

Started a little bit into the season. I forget the date.

13 picks in 3 days is actually uncommon for me.

Usually I make about 2 picks per day on average.

I was flying today. Spending a week with the folks for Christmas. The jerkwad airline wanted $10 for internet for a two hour flight. Ripoff! Got back on the net to late to bet Boston but got down on the rest. My account was at $1562 so just bet $15 per. Looking up scores tonight will give me something to do. It gets dark at 3:30 PM this time of year.

4-0 start to the day.

First three won very easily (Boston and both OKC picks), and the Detroit over was in great shape at halftime (thanks to 71 points in the 2nd quarter), but a slow 3rd and early 4th, actually made it a sweat. Still won by 6.

Now I just need Memphis to cover.

Memphis couldn't quite do it. Covering until the final 4:30, then they fell behind more than 10, and never recovered. Game finished at a 13-point margin, 3 off of my line.

Second 4-1 day in my last 3 days, moving my overall record to 80-50-2, and 9-4 in the picks I've posted here.

This is one damn impressive run!!! And I have always considered the NBA un-bettable.

Dan
I am a weekly sports bettor in reno. I only bet in brick and mortor..mostly william hill.

My question to you is one of method. When you are picking totals in basketball.....does the amount of the total compared to other games matter. For instance....lets say you liked 2 games....but only wanted to pick one. You thought unders on both were a good bet. But one total was 223 and the other total was 190. Maybe a warriors game and a memphis game. In the 190 game, a brief unexpected excessive scoring stretch of 3 min can kill you. Whereas a similar 3 minute stretch in the 223 game,,,,is insignificant. Each point carries more weight in the 190 game.

Also in hockey, and I dont know how long this will last.....from the beginning it was thought that the vegas team would have a real advantage at home...as other teams come in and take advantage of the night life. And its true. Although the NHL has one of the lowest home court/ice advantages......vegas is a different team onthe road. and at home. I think only losing 2 games so far. Over the previous 2 years, the warriors have lost to a vastly inferior lakers team in LA most likely for the same reasons. Back then they were fully staffed...and still lost badly. This year they avoided that trap. I think vegas remains a viable bet going forward until teams coming into town wise up.

Memphis -3.5 (you don't know how much it pains me to pick Memphis back-to-back on the road as a favorite)

Utah +3 -115 (+2.5 -110 ok)

Games don't start til 6pm and 7:30pm PST respectively, so you have time, but these lines are changing quickly.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by LarryS

Dan
I am a weekly sports bettor in reno. I only bet in brick and mortor..mostly william hill.

My question to you is one of method. When you are picking totals in basketball.....does the amount of the total compared to other games matter. For instance....lets say you liked 2 games....but only wanted to pick one. You thought unders on both were a good bet. But one total was 223 and the other total was 190. Maybe a warriors game and a memphis game. In the 190 game, a brief unexpected excessive scoring stretch of 3 min can kill you. Whereas a similar 3 minute stretch in the 223 game,,,,is insignificant. Each point carries more weight in the 190 game.

Also in hockey, and I dont know how long this will last.....from the beginning it was thought that the vegas team would have a real advantage at home...as other teams come in and take advantage of the night life. And its true. Although the NHL has one of the lowest home court/ice advantages......vegas is a different team onthe road. and at home. I think only losing 2 games so far. Over the previous 2 years, the warriors have lost to a vastly inferior lakers team in LA most likely for the same reasons. Back then they were fully staffed...and still lost badly. This year they avoided that trap. I think vegas remains a viable bet going forward until teams coming into town wise up.

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I don't ever lay off games because I "only want to pick one". I pick however many I think are +EV selections. Sometimes it's a lot, sometimes it's just 1 or 2, sometimes it's none.

In fact, today was going to be none until I got to analyzing the two late games.

You are correct that 190 type totals can be difficult to bet under, just as 228 type totals tend to be difficult to bet over. That's not to say it's always correct to oppose them, or that you should never bet them, but the chance of finding a soft line under 190 or over 228 is much lower. These totals are to such extremes because the public already knows both teams are low/high scoring, and are expected to hammer the betting that way. Now, often there's good reason for it -- meaning the public isn't aways necessarily wrong in those cases. But it isn't too common to see a 190 line where I actually expect the total to be 180, or a 228 where I expect it to be 238. I find the less extreme totals are often the lines most misset -- often intentionally because the lines are sometimes set according to the expected public betting, rather than the actual expected game total. For example, if books believe a game will have 202 points, but know that 70% of the action will still come in over at 208, they may still set it at 208 or higher. So when that's happening, the under is clearly the right play. However, "contrarian" betting -- simply firing against the public -- is not likely to be successful long term. The trick is understanding where the line is intentionally misset, and where the public is simply backing the correct betting side.

I am not a hockey bettor, so I can't answer that question.

I also deleted a few messages in this thread involving questions regarding LarryS's motivation for registering here.

Larry is welcome to post on this site, and as long as he behaves respectfully, he can stay. I don't care how he's behaved on other forums.

However, if Larry or other new members transition to trolling, they will be quickly removed. I have much lower of a tolerance for trolling on this site recently, and am aiming to clean out the BS from this place.

I dont have real facts, just experience, but in totals I find that 199 is many times the casinos begging the public to bet over. And in college 129 is a number where the casino feels most will bet over....its enticing. I dont use that situation as an automatic betting opportunity..but I give those an extra look.

for example in college 129 totals, the casino might feel that the under might be around 125.....but only a small amount of bets would be for under.....so they raise it to 129....and thats still a low number in the average bettors mind...they overwhelmingly bet over and with the new jacked up total they have a much lesser chance of winning the over. I always take a second look at college games under 130.

I wouldn't get too hung up on numbers.

The important thing to look for is the situation where the sportsbook is forcing a bad line on the public, expecting most of them to bet it anyway.

For example, let's say Team A is a high-scoring team and Team B is an average-scoring team. So the typical public bettor would expect total like 215 nowadays. But let's say that certain matchup or gaming conditions would actually result in lower scoring, but most casual bettors don't and can't realize this. So the books are actually expecting a total like 204, set the line at 210, and those in the public expecting 215 will think, "Wow, 210 is a great deal! With these two teams, it's definitely going over!", and they bet over.

That's the optimal situation for the sportsbook, because they're getting disproportionate action on the "bad" side of the line which is substantially off, and they will make a killing in the long run in such a situation.

The opportunity here is for those who can recognize this situation and go the other way.

This recognition comes from a variety of factors, and there's not just a simple "system" one can use.

Too many bettors also think that "public" is a dirty word, and that simply opposing the public will produce winning results. That's also false.

Anyway, this is how you can (potentially) win in the NBA. If you just try to bet by feel or basketball knowledge, you will not win.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I have much lower of a tolerance for trolling on this site recently, and am aiming to clean out the BS from this place.

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A very welcome development. :)

I agree....and thats what makes college so difficult because most people dont even know the names of the players let alone if there is going to be a matchup imbalance for example where the speed of one team could overwhelm the other. Or if the bench of one team is much better than the other. With the pros that is easier.

I agreed with your memphis pick where 5 out of 8 of GSW were out. And that was an under game in my mind. Yet GSW covered in a game where they gave up 11 turnover points in the first quarter alone.

And to your point, yes I agree that the "man" sometimes sets totals off kilter based on the betting public predicted actions.....thats exactly what I was talking about in the college games with a total of 129. I sometimes seek out those low total to look at(not automatically bet).....because the man knows whether the total is 125 or 129...the public is going to bet over. So a 125 expected total may indeed turn into 129 because the "man: feels the majority will bet over....and why risk losing when they can jack it up to 129 and still have the psychology of being under 130 push people to bet over. For me that is a good place to start to find a few gems of an inflated over number based on the psychology of being under 130. Its not always a good value...but I do look there for value.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by regnis

This is one damn impressive run!!! And I have always considered the NBA un-bettable.

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Same here, at least regarding sides. Totals looked to have some weaknesses at times, but the rules and personnel change so much year to year, that it looks like a buzzing madhouse to me. Well done, Dan. Spectacular.

Well, what I can I do?

Memphis missed their final 1000000000000000000000 shots and lost 97-95.

Terrible, terrible team.

They've stung me two days in a row now, and I don't think I've won a single game backing them. They have a horrendous record ATS.

Go Utah!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Terrible, terrible team.

They've stung me two days in a row now, and I don't think I've won a single game backing them. They have a horrendous record ATS.

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Dan, you have a good streak going and a great record and I don't want to kick a man while he is (temporarily) down...BUT wouldn't the time to have taken note of this have been yesterday afternoon about 3:30? ;)

Split today's picks, going 1-1.

Record now 81-51-2.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Well, what I can I do?

Memphis missed their final 1000000000000000000000 shots and lost 97-95.

Terrible, terrible team.

They've stung me two days in a row now, and I don't think I've won a single game backing them. They have a horrendous record ATS.

Go Utah!

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Dan, I don't think Fizzdale's firing is doing any favors for Memphis' morale - maybe Gasol's, but it's a team sport. At 7-12, when Fizzdale was fired (a guy that took them to the playoffs the previous 7 seasons IIRC), they actually had a chance to right the ship. At 9-23, not so much.

Dallas -1.5

Might post more later

Last minute NBA pick:

Denver Under 203

Semi-last-minute NBA pick:

Lakers under 217 -115 (216.5/216 -110 ok)

I should probably mention that I've been better at totals than sides.

Toronto Under 219

Starts in 15 min

OTB on some books due to Embiid, but 5Dimes still has it (in fact, it went up to 219.5 moments after I placed my bet... ugh)

Went 1-2 yesterday btw. Got really screwed on the Warriors game.. 24 points in the final 3 mins to push it over by 2. Should've gone 2-1.

Somehow my final 3 picks posted never made it up here. Posted them hours in advance, but the post didn't show up. Weird. It's too bad, as they went 2-1. Sorry about that.

Posted them on my PokerFraudAlert Forum though (hours before the games).

They were:

Boston Under 205
Lakers Under 204 -115
Minnesota -8

Boston lost, the other two won.

Record now 85-54-2

I sat for an hour deciding what to do about this Cleveland game

Kept wanting to do under but couldn't quite decide upon it, and this game had so much action (I believe the most of any NBA game this season) that I decided to sit it out. I'm guessing the line is too sharp on this one.

I also suck at the Cavaliers.

Was going to bet under on NY/Phi today (which would've won) but my son woke up way earlier than expected and distracted me, so couldn't do that. Oh well.

I don't see anything I like in the next game (Boston/Wash).

Chris Paul missing from Houston game (probably) and I am probably skipping that one, too.

You've got 7 hours for this one.

Minnesota -5.5
Minnesota Under 215.5

Lonzo Ball out. Brandon Ingram may or may not play.

Probably won't fire on the other games.

Add OKC +0 -125 to the mix. You can get this on Bovada.

If you can't get -125, go for OKC -2 -110.

Chris Paul ruled out.

Took two of three, to take my record to 87-55-2.

For awhile, I've been wondering whether or not I've just been getting lucky with the NBA.

I have posted 144 picks on my pokerfraudalert.com site. Two were ties, so we will throw those out.

Of the remaining 142, I won 87 and lost 55.

How possible is it that I simply ran well and achieved those extra 32 wins thanks to dumb luck?

Fortunately, since just about all of my picks are sides, it's basically equivalent to a coinflip. That is, if it were not for the house juice on both side, I would be paid even money for winning.

There are a few exceptions to this, such as picks where I get -115 instead of -110, as well as two or three -125/-120 type moneyilne picks, but I also had my share of -105 lines in there (which cancel some/all of those out), so I believe this is mostly negligible, and I will ignore it.

So the grand question becomes: In a "coin flip" situation where you're basically picking one side or the other, both of which pay the same, what are the chances of getting 87 out of 142 correct?

I ran this through a coin-flipping calculator and found that the chances are very small 0.45%.

This means that there's a 99.55% chance that I have achieved this NBA record through at least some degree of handicapping skill.

Anyone who wants to play with the calculator, go here: http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Enter 0.5 in the first box (indicating a coin flip), then the number of non-tie picks in the second box, and the number of wins in the 3rd box.

The bottom result given is the probability that you would have achieved that number of wins (or better) by good luck alone.

Orlando under 205 (already posted this on my other site and bet earlier, now line is at 204, which is still ok)

Sacramento under 205 -115 (under 204.5 -110 ok)

Bovada shut down the betting on the Orlando game so i couldn't get a bet down. Dan, do you know why they sometimes do that? Do they also open it back up sometimes before game time?

I agree that its has to do with skill and handicapping ability. However I have been in that position with great seasons in basketball, hockey, baseball , football occur the last 20 years betting in reno. But I cannot say that my analysis works each season. Sometimes its analysis, memory of past games I saw, and luck(the bounce of the ball)..add them all together and sometimes you get a period of great results.

if your record is sustainable year after year....then you can quit your day job and snowball your bankroll into huge dollars.

Personally, I have had about a 6 percent profit over the last 5 years...on 80k a year of bets. Thats not even minimum wage when you count the hours I put in doing analysis. But I enjoy it.
Enjoy your rush,,,,it happens in sports, and it happens in poker where there is a period that you cant lose a hand. Those are my 2 games....poker and sports. And have had nice profitable periods in both. But never sustainable.

One last NBA pick (starts in 15 min):

Denver -5.5

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Bovada shut down the betting on the Orlando game so i couldn't get a bet down. Dan, do you know why they sometimes do that? Do they also open it back up sometimes before game time?

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This game was full of injured players, so some books take it off the board.

Too bad, because it's on pace to win so far.

Also a reason why it's good to have $ on multiple books.

Lots of games today, but aside from the early two, I couldn't find anything good.

But we do have these:

Charlotte +1.5 -115 (+1 -110 ok)
Charlotte Under 206
Dallas +4 (no Oladipo)

Dallas may be OTB on your book right now. Betonline has it at the moment.

Boston has Brown out, Charlotte has Kidd-Gilchrist recovering from an injury (but he's very likely playing) and Williams with a sore finger (probably playing)

May post one or two more later... monitoring some others

One more...

Lakers -3.5

Another shitshow game, with Mike Conley, JaMychal Green, Lonzo Ball, Brook Lopez, and possibly Tyreke Evans and Brandon Ingram out.

However, Ingram will probably have a go at it today (on a minutes restriction). Evans is the key here, as he has right knee issues, which is the same knee which he had surgery. If he's out, or if he's not healthy enough to be himself, the Grizzlies are complete garbage. This is already a bad team (5-22 in their last 27), but with Evans out, they're really horrible. Reserve Brandan Wright will also be missing.

Still monitoring the total.

2-2 day last night, now 91-58-2.

Today:

Orlando +4

Starting at 4:05pm PST

Orlando won by 13. Was leading almost the whole way.

They just announced Lillard is out.

Two more bets (starting 7:40 PST):

Philly -1 (-1.5 ok)
Phily under 207.5 (under 207 ok)

Well I got screwed hard on that Philly game. 18-point lead in the 3rd shot off. They had a 13-point lead entering the 4th, and lost by 4, giving up 42 points in the 4th and just scoring 25 (also screwing my under).

Record now 92-60-2 after this 1-2 day.

The 76ers played one real anomalous whackjob fourth. No clue leading up to it that they'd go in the tank like that. Good job -- keep grinding.

at around the 5:30 mark the score in the 4th was 25-5. Sixers had only 5 points in over 6 minutes.

Indiana +2.5 (certain Bovada accounts can get +3 -115)
Dallas Over 212.5 (212 -115 on Bovada right now if you want it)
Sacramento -3 -105 (-110 ok)
Charlotte +10 -115 (+9.5 -110 ok)
Lakers Over 216 -115 (216.5 -110 ok)

3-2 yesterday. None were close.

Today:

NBA

NY Knicks +5.5 -105 (I'm doing a half/half spread and +190 moneyline bet, but I am counting it as a spread bet for my record here)
Atlanta +3.5 -105

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Indiana +2.5 (certain Bovada accounts can get +3 -115)
Dallas Over 212.5 (212 -115 on Bovada right now if you want it)
Sacramento -3 -105 (-110 ok)
Charlotte +10 -115 (+9.5 -110 ok)
Lakers Over 216 -115 (216.5 -110 ok)

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Good call on the Lakers over...I thought that total was way too high...they haven`t been scoring as much with Ball out...good thing they`re allowing more lol

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Indiana +2.5 (certain Bovada accounts can get +3 -115)
Dallas Over 212.5 (212 -115 on Bovada right now if you want it)
Sacramento -3 -105 (-110 ok)
Charlotte +10 -115 (+9.5 -110 ok)
Lakers Over 216 -115 (216.5 -110 ok)

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Nice call on the Charlotte game - outright winner, no spread required. Omri Casspi, was the difference maker - he twisted his ankle the game before and was unavailable for the Charlotte game. He's been a huge factor off the bench for the Warriors - quite a find.

Philly under 214

Looking at it all day, decided to fire

3-0 yesterday taking me to 98-62-2

Starting in 30 min:


NBA
Washington -8 -105 (-110 ok)
Washington Under 212 -105 (-110 ok)

More later

You guys missed me going 0-4 and then 1-2. (I only posted 2 of the losers above).

So my record is 99-68-2.

Sacramento under 205 (204.5 -110 ok)

That's it for today.

honest man

impressive so far still

but I am not jumping on the Dan wagon....just for the reason what happened this weekend.

like a craps table...it can turn on a dime

Detroit +2 or +115 money line
Minnesota under 212.5 (212 ok)

someone accepted a bet on memphis today?

Split my two bets. Minnesota under won easily, Detroit was close until the final minutes, then fell apart.

Record now 100-70-2.

In case you're wondering, I did not pick anything on January 4. There were only 2 games, and I did not have any lean on either the sides or the totals.

Hopefully the day off will allow me to turn around my recent 2-8 slump, which is the worst 10-game slump I've had this season. I did have at least one encouraging result, which was winning that Minnesota under by a wide margin on Wednesday, so hopefully that's a sign that I'm turning things around. The other pick, on Detroit, could have gone either way, as it was tied with just a few minutes left.

Damn. Even if you change the "probability of success on a single trial" to 51% or 52%, it's still damn impressive.

I haven't been looking at this thread, but someone the other day told me I should take a look.


Idk what the hell it is you're doing, but keep it up. You're at a 58% win rate (100/170) right now, which is about right on par as what you quoted your win rate was earlier in the season, at 60%.

Yo btw I just signed up on PFA as "RS_". Can you activate my account? And if possible, remove the _ from my username? Gotta git to postin'.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Record now 100-70-2.

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Just curious if you have a break down of the side bets and the over/under bets. Just speculating but it seems like you may be doing better with the under/over bets (mostly under). It might be that the real winning percentage is on those over/under bets and the side bets are just 50/50 ish.

Here we go again... after a day of zero picks.

Minnesota +3.5 -115 (Bovada -- -3 -110 ok, moneyline of +132 or better ok)
Dallas under 210.5
Memphis under 205.5 (205 ok)
Memphis +5 -115 (4.5 - 110 ok, moneyline +165 or better ok)

The sharps APPROVE of all 4 plays (though I decided upon them before seeing what the sharps liked).

KewlJ, I have not broken these down, and I don't have a list of all my past bets, except as listed in separate posts on forums. So it's a pain in the ass to analyze.

From my own personal observation, yes, my totals seem to be doing better.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

KewlJ, I have not broken these down, and I don't have a list of all my past bets, except as listed in separate posts on forums. So it's a pain in the ass to analyze.

From my own personal observation, yes, my totals seem to be doing better.

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Ok so, I took a look. I can't promise I didn't miss any picks as there was a lot to scroll through on that thread, but I think this is pretty accurate. It at least gives a pretty good indication of a breakdown. I also didn't include any in-game wagers, which you did a couple of early in the year.

I get 91 total picks which is close to 50% of all picks. Over under picks are 56-35. So of your roughly +30 win vs losses, 70% or 21 are via totals.

Sort of what we were suspecting.

However, on Dec 11 you were 37-17 on Total's picks and have cooler down considerably, only 19-18 since. Something worth watching.

One final note. On Overs you are a healthy 9-4. You don't pick them often, but are strong when you do.

Oh and one other thing: When betting total unders, one thing that can always bite you in the ass, is the possibility of overtime. Seems like you have been bitten a few times recently. I have no data on whether that is statistically abnormal, though.

Oh and having looked through THAT thread a question? What is with all the gay signage in your posts? ;)

Pulled off a lucky 2-2 in the Memphis game. For much of the game, both of those were losing, which would have sent me to 0-4.

The 4th barely had any scoring, and a last-minute 3 changed a tie to a win on the side.

KewlJ, thanks for looking up those picks. Yes, seems like my totals have been better. I also have noticed that my overs do well typically when I pick them, but it's a lot harder to find a value over.

RS_, I validated you on PFA.

One of these already started (as I posted it like 3 minutes before gametime on PokerFraudAlert), but here are 3 picks:

Brooklyn +3.5 -115 (moneyline +140 is actually what I bet)
Houston under 211.5
Cleveland under 221.5

Also

Milwaukee under 214

That's it.

GL to me and whoever else follows

I hope all of them win....at least for my sake. :)

I honestly feel kinda bad when people bet my picks and they lose.

Makes me a little nervous now because I've been so cold in the past week.

The funny thing is that fairly few people were betting my picks when I was winning 75% of what I was posting, and those winners were often blowing out the line by 20+ points.

Now I'm 4-10 in the last 14, with three of those wins being close, and people are following.

LOL

Did you get in the Brooklyn one? I'm guessing no.