Understanding Slotloser’s $200K yearly income comment

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Originally Posted by Prozema

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Prozema

This one jumped 4 or 5 on me to give me two bonuses back to back. It was reel 1 or 5... I forget. Regardless of all that, I've not tracked the movement per shoe but if the line was set at 1.1 I would take the under.

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The best way to track spins on the 1 and 5 and 2 and 4 reels might be to record the number of spins it takes to move it from the 3rd level to the top.

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I started counting spins on each line count and it's tedious.

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That's what I'm thinking.

The laughing black cat can come in the bonus round I noticed. Not just the base game.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

Since freeplayAP may have the Hex3 par sheet and tweeted that 573 is 8% RTP on the base game then 7163 ways would be breakeven/100% RTP on the base game if ways have linear payback on this game:

It doesn't sound like an unreasonable RTP for 7163 ways.

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Originally Posted by radicalwin

You have to factor in the prizes at the top

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Originally Posted by radicalwin

I would enthusiastically jump on 7163 wats.

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Ok, so you wouldn't have to factor in the prizes at the top at 7163 ways (the prizes are never less than 10 times the betting unit size for one thing). As I originally stated.

Correct

I will be standing the AP community on its head with a special announcement soon. Stayed tuned in.

I recorded the number of spins to run the 1st reel from 3rd position to the top. It took 2069 spins to run it up 4 times. That's an average of 517 spins. Reel 5 would probably be the same.

I'm thinking reels 2 and 4 only take about 200 spins to run to the top. It would advance about every 45 spins average but sometimes it advanced 2 levels or more. That would mean finding the BONUS symbol above reels 2 and/or 4 is much more valuable than 1 and 5.

It seems to take an average of 120 spins to get a laughing black cat (kind of like an ace side count in BJ).

I might have a worse chip than MC. I've got between 244 and 247 to move 2 & 4 from reset to the top. That's with a shoe landing anywhere every 15.52 spins. I'm not 100% sure that each shoe lands with the same frequency depending on how high the reels are. It seems that IGT calls the symbols blocking view or the reels as ghosts. I don't know how long the strips are and I suspect they are pretty long so I'm thinking adding a couple of visible spots / removing a few ghosts doesn't matter much but I'm just not sure.

How are you dealing with the drop on the main game? Form what I have both excluding and including the orbs the payback improves when the ways count increases. Looks like 13,000 and 3,000 are breakpoints depending on whether you include or exclude orbs and how valuable the orb is. I'm sure I'm skewed to more valuable orbs. I don't do a lot of spinning if I'm one away from a 10x orb. With that bias, the real "with orb" breakpoint might be 4,000 or 5,000-ish.

I picked up some chatter on gambling twitter from a couple of hex players about there being an 85.07% version and an 86.03% version. And that the CET properties were all 85.07%. That's a no brainer. Their 15's are all 85%'ers. They got the lowest paying slots of anybody.

The other day I was told by someone that the best hex game is 96%. So it looks like the hex game probably has a half dozen different paybacks from 85% to 96%, just like the 15's.

Knowing the drop as a function of ways, in conjunction with Mickey's post regarding the cost to move an outside reel and cost to move an even reel pretty much makes the Hex3 analysis mature IMHO. One approach is to use Twitter user FreeplayAP's 573 ways = 8% RTP Twitter post (and assume he has the par sheet) to come up with the drop. So we have 573 ways/8% or for each 71.6 ways gained you will make a 1% climb in RTP. So we know that (per Mickey's post) the minimum value is 3x3x3x3x3 or 243 ways. A 1 unit bracket movement on reel 1 with all reels at the bottom (3 position) will result in a way gain of 4x3x3x3x3-3x3x3x3x3=81 ways or roughly 1 percent. But suppose we have a starting configuration of 4x5x4x3x4 or 960 ways. And, as before, reel 1 gets a horseshoe and bumps up one spot resulting in a configuration of 5x5x4x3x4 or 1200 ways. Well now a 1 spot movement of reel 1 results in a way gain of 240 ways (1200-960) or gain in RTP of 3.4% (240/71.6). That's right, not all 1 spot reel 1 movements are created equal are they (and the same goes for any reel) ? So, basically, you can calculate the drop for any configuration and use that as the baseline drop (dynamically re-calculating it each time you get a horseshoe if you wish) to decide if it is a good entry point based on the cash (non-bonus) prizes at the top and 71 unit return of the bonus (per Prozema's post) if those are present as a top prize. And of course you can calculate your base game RTP for any configuration.

Aw fuck it, I'm just gonna assume a drop of 50%, J/K ;-)

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I might have a worse chip than MC. I've got between 244 and 247 to move 2 & 4 from reset to the top. That's with a shoe landing anywhere every 15.52 spins. I'm not 100% sure that each shoe lands with the same frequency depending on how high the reels are. It seems that IGT calls the symbols blocking view or the reels as ghosts. I don't know how long the strips are and I suspect they are pretty long so I'm thinking adding a couple of visible spots / removing a few ghosts doesn't matter much but I'm just not sure.

How are you dealing with the drop on the main game? Form what I have both excluding and including the orbs the payback improves when the ways count increases. Looks like 13,000 and 3,000 are breakpoints depending on whether you include or exclude orbs and how valuable the orb is. I'm sure I'm skewed to more valuable orbs. I don't do a lot of spinning if I'm one away from a 10x orb. With that bias, the real "with orb" breakpoint might be 4,000 or 5,000-ish.

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The only stat on the payback I have is 10,926 spins playing at 3 away. I finished 482 units ahead. I caught the white kitty in the BONUS 6 times so that was probably an overperformance.

The game bounces back and forth between negative (when number of ways are low) and positive (when numbers of ways are high).

The internet chatter is guys were traveling the country to play them at 3 away. And freeplay was a big part of the play. The game is definitely made to run action. It could be that 3 away is overall breakeven or slightly positive.

From my LIMITED experience I think if you are not counting mail you'd much rather find reel 3 at 7 up (2 away). Good luck finding that though. People are jumping them much earlier.

I've got the drop by line count for just under 14,000 spins. It's enough to see the pattern but not enough to be precise.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

Knowing the drop as a function of ways, in conjunction with Mickey's post regarding the cost to move an outside reel and cost to move an even reel pretty much makes the Hex3 analysis mature IMHO. One approach is to use Twitter user FreeplayAP's 573 ways = 8% RTP Twitter post (and assume he has the par sheet) to come up with the drop. So we have 573 ways/8% or for each 71.6 ways gained you will make a 1% climb in RTP. So we know that (per Mickey's post) the minimum value is 3x3x3x3x3 or 243 ways. A 1 unit bracket movement on reel 1 with all reels at the bottom (3 position) will result in a way gain of 4x3x3x3x3-3x3x3x3x3=81 ways or roughly 1 percent. But suppose we have a starting configuration of 4x5x4x3x4 or 960 ways. And, as before, reel 1 gets a horseshoe and bumps up one spot resulting in a configuration of 5x5x4x3x4 or 1200 ways. Well now a 1 spot movement of reel 1 results in a way gain of 240 ways (1200-960) or gain in RTP of 3.4% (240/71.6). That's right, not all 1 spot reel 1 movements are created equal are they (and the same goes for any reel) ? So, basically, you can calculate the drop for any configuration and use that as the baseline drop (dynamically re-calculating it each time you get a horseshoe if you wish) to decide if it is a good entry point based on the cash (non-bonus) prizes at the top and 71 unit return of the bonus (per Prozema's post) if those are present as a top prize. And of course you can calculate your base game RTP for any configuration.

Aw fuck it, I'm just gonna assume a drop of 50%, J/K ;-)

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It's almost certain the highly educated mensa member you referenced plays the game more than me but I'd take the over all day on that 573 ways RTP.

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Originally Posted by Prozema

It's almost certain the highly educated mensa member you referenced plays the game more than me but I'd take the over all day on that 573 ways RTP.

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That over's a good bet. However I doubt you have gathered much data on the drop at 573 ways ;-).

I have a little data on low numbers.

I've taken 243 spins below 1000 lines and it dropped me 66% excluding orbs / 50.5% including orbs.
I suspect I ran good because I have 658 spins between 1000 lines and 1999. The machine dropped me 71.3% excluding orbs / 26.2% including orbs at that level.

For obvious reasons expanding that data set is low on my priority list.

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I have a little data on low numbers.

I've taken 243 spins below 1000 lines and it dropped me 66% excluding orbs / 50.5% including orbs.
I suspect I ran good because I have 658 spins between 1000 lines and 1999. The machine dropped me 71.3% excluding orbs / 26.2% including orbs at that level.

For obvious reasons expanding that data set is low on my priority list.

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Public service announcement. Most of what is posted above is wrong. If you look at the specific par for this game. Even with a 10million spin sample size the manufacturer only listed it as 75 percent certainty. If you want to get to 95 percent go to 100million spins

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I have a little data on low numbers.

I've taken 243 spins below 1000 lines and it dropped me 66% excluding orbs / 50.5% including orbs.
I suspect I ran good because I have 658 spins between 1000 lines and 1999. The machine dropped me 71.3% excluding orbs / 26.2% including orbs at that level.

For obvious reasons expanding that data set is low on my priority list.

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Thanks Prozema.

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Originally Posted by Advantageplay

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I have a little data on low numbers.

I've taken 243 spins below 1000 lines and it dropped me 66% excluding orbs / 50.5% including orbs.
I suspect I ran good because I have 658 spins between 1000 lines and 1999. The machine dropped me 71.3% excluding orbs / 26.2% including orbs at that level.

For obvious reasons expanding that data set is low on my priority list.

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Public service announcement. Most of what is posted above is wrong. If you look at the specific par for this game. Even with a 10million spin sample size the manufacturer only listed it as 75 percent certainty. If you want to get to 95 percent go to 100million spins

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From the stuff you're saying in your other post you are looking at the 85.07% chip set.
You're reading the sheet wrong.

With 95% confidence-Max
10K handle pulls is 74.840% low and 95.299% high

Once you get into the 1million handle pull range you're in the +/-1% confidence value Min&Max

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Originally Posted by Advantageplay

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I have a little data on low numbers.

I've taken 243 spins below 1000 lines and it dropped me 66% excluding orbs / 50.5% including orbs.
I suspect I ran good because I have 658 spins between 1000 lines and 1999. The machine dropped me 71.3% excluding orbs / 26.2% including orbs at that level.

For obvious reasons expanding that data set is low on my priority list.

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Public service announcement. Most of what is posted above is wrong. If you look at the specific par for this game. Even with a 10million spin sample size the manufacturer only listed it as 75 percent certainty. If you want to get to 95 percent go to 100million spins

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None of it is wrong. I told you the exact results of very few observed spins. Said another way, I just told you what I did and how the machine responded. The reason I included the spin count was so everyone would know how weak the data point is... I never said it was accurate representation of how the machine is programmed.

If there is some way to figure out the drop for any given line count from that par, I'm all ears... But I already know the answer to that questions so I won't hold my breath.

Probably 89-91% RTP but we played 4200+ ways profitably before the latest updates.