Quote:
Originally Posted by
Moses
Okay. Here is the math. 20 sessions a week of your game and your control. Win 60%. A win is $500. A loss is $500. Play 50 weeks a year. The averages and percentages work themselves out. Voila - $100k annually without the volatility.
But to lose $29k in a week only to recover it all 3 months? Hard for a grown man able to drive a car, practice/play blackjack, and run sims to believe. Control your game or their game controls you.
That is the math? :confused: Where are you getting your math....The Rob Singer school of alternative math? ;) I mean seriously 60% win...where did that come from? A win of $500 and losses of $500? Only number you posted that looks close to right to me is about 50 weeks in a year.
Let me share my math with you. Real blackjack math!
I play 70,000 to 100,000 rounds of blackjack a year. Lets say 80,000 to make it easy. Since I play almost exclusively one spot, no need to add anything there.
so 80,000 rounds. My average bet is a bit complicated because I use different spreads, ramps and top bets, but lets make it real easy and say average bet of $100. It is really somewhat more than that. So 80,000 rounds at average bet of $100 = $8,000,000.
I put roughly 8 million dollars into play a year.
My total advantage is slightly more than 1% because of aggressive wong outs of negative counts and tracking multiple tables, resulting in higher than average number of max bet opportunities, but, let's round off low to 1%.
$8,000,000 v 1% (advantage) is roughly $80,000. That is my expected win for the year roughly $80,000.
Ok next is variance. I assume you know the standard formula. Average bet ($100) x 1.15 = $115 x square root of number of rounds played
Square root of 80,000 rounds is 282.84. 282.84 x 1.15 = $32,526 That is one standard deviation.
So my annual expected win is $80,000, but anything $32,526 below or above that would be within one standard deviation. Or completely normal. so any result for the year between $47,474 and $112, 526, would be within one standard deviation or very normal. Results should fall in this range 65% of the time. Anything 2 standard deviations above or below would also be considered pretty normal (should occur 95% of the time).
So my results have been within 1 standard deviation 13 of my 15 years. And the other 2 years were within 2 standard deviations, 1 below and 1 above.
Now I am not really a math guy. I use the math that other people came up with. But that is the real math of blackjack card counting as it relates to my play. I mean I do things like multiple bet spreads, and max bets that increases variance, and probably changes my numbers from someone playing a more traditional spread, ramp, but, basically, you get the drift.
So THAT is the math, not this 60% winning sessions? where does that come from? session win rate means nothing. Session win rate can be manipulated if that is important to you. Take martingale for instance. You will end up with many small winning sessions and a few much larger losing ones. Means nothing. So lets stick to the real math.