Here's an educational article on Expected Value in sportsbetting:
https://sportshandle.com/expected-value/
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Here's an educational article on Expected Value in sportsbetting:
https://sportshandle.com/expected-value/
Another thing that i'm not sure has ever been brought up but I believe Redietz likes to claim that handicappers have some special way of anticipating line moves. Attacking weak lines early on will net the same effect in general. But get this !! you don't even have to know shit about the sport !!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
From the above article: For example, if a book assigns a team — let’s say the Seahawks against the Patriots– a +100 line, that translates to a 50% winning probability, or a coin flip.
If a bettor believes that in this game the Seahawks actually have a greater than 50% chance to win, they would assign a positive expected value (+EV)
In blackjack as well as video poker, expected value (EV) is determined purely by the math. Strickly by the odds of different events occurring, based on math. Once you get into "if a player believes"...something will occur more or less that the math says, you have crossed over to opinion. EV is not based on opinion, it is based on math.
Now let's take this to video poker. Let's use full pay jacks or better. The math says a royal will occur every 40,391 rounds on average. And from that and knowing how often every other payout will occur, we are able to come up with and expected return of 99.54, (-EV). This is all based purely on math. There is no room for opinion.
So if the player somehow believes that he will hit a royal every 35,000 rounds instead of every 40,000 rounds that the math tells us, does this game become +EV, purely based on that opinion or hope? Of course not. (BTW, this is getting into Rob Singer voodoo territory) But that is what the article says. "If a player believes" the chances are better than this...then it is +EV.
So I don't know what that is or what term should be used but it really isn't EV. EV is based strictly on the math. There is no room for opinion in that equation.....in my opinion of course. ;)
Ok team redietz starring kewlj vs consensus of everyone else. Thank you for the explanation. Maybe we'll finally get it.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
See, this is a very typical troll response. No surprise it is coming from you. You form teams, based on that you don't like someone (something you have admitted and prove every day), then you call names, like coach belly does with ditz, and TewlJ and mickey has followed coach belly. Who ever thought mickey would be following coach belly's lead. :confused: This name calling is an attempt to demonize.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
God forbid, there should be an honest discussion, without all the polarization and name calling where someone, maybe even me, could actually learn something. I mean I would like to know how EV stops being about the math and starts being about someone's opinion that a team will do better than the odds or point spread with no explanation as to how that "opinion" came to be.
Now lets' get into how lines occur. And someone correct me if I am wrong. It is my understanding that there is an early line posted somewhere for football on Sunday night, that may not be available to everyone, and based wagers on that early line, the line moves to the first publicly available line posted usually Monday morning. And from there it moves further based on how much play each side is getting.
But lets get back to this earl(iest) of lines that comes out Sunday night. How is that determined? That is based on somebody's (supposedly an expert handicapper's) opinion. Someone's opinion just really can't be a part of expected value. TRUE expected value is based on math, not opinion. So if a sports bettor is beating that opinion of the line which starts out as one guys opinion and moves based oin the public's opinion, that should be called something else. I don't know what it should be called, but it is not the pure definition of EV.
Opinion handicappers are obsolete. Modern handicappers are using very sophisticated software. And the statistical data, at least in the past, was much more in depth than the bookie's statistical data.
So when the books have the Patriots and Seahawks at pickem but the computer algorithm tells the sharp bettor that the Pats will win 55% of the time....that creates the edge. It's based on averages per the statistics not opinions.
The software running artificial intelligence algorithms doing a 10,000 game simulation shows Pats winning 55% of the time.
For simplification you are betting $1.10 to win $1.00 per game.
That an $11,000 wager.
Pats win 55% of games for a return of $5,500
Pats lose 45% of games for a loss of $4,950
A profit of $550
$550 divided by the $11000 total wager = an expected value of +5%
An experienced software user like Spanky, who has a degree in computer science, has a collection of statistics on his computer derived bets going back 20 years that tells him how accurate the algorithm's EV calculations are.
That is amazing mickey crimm. Thanks for this post. So where can we get our hands on this software? ;) Just kidding..sort of.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Just another case of software, computers and A.I. changing everything. :cool:
So I use software in my card counting. The software from my dear Friend Norm Wattenberger which he calls Qfit products (just a plug for good old Norm). And you and many VP players have used software for quite a while. I never did use software with VP, because my play was very elementary and my advantage from the disproportionate mailer free play offers.
But here is the thing. Prior to software and computers in every home, there were guys still beating blackjack via card counting and still beating VP right. The software just works as an aid now. A tool if you will. And that is what I equate redietz to. The guy who was beating blackjack and video poker before the tools we have now in computers and software. That is not to say redietz doesn't use software of computers. That is not what I am saying. But when he started out, he did it the old school way I think. So why this push to say the old school way is wrong. He has been successful doing it that way for decades. I have no reason to doubt him. Do you mickey? Do you really doubt him?
I mean I still have the pleasure of communicating with some old school blackjack players. That would be guys that played in the 80's and 90's. Basically, anything before 2000. I would never say their way was wrong and they couldn't win their way. They did it! :rolleyes:
My take is redietz believes strongly in his way, an old school way. And doesn't seem very accepting of newer methods. But that doesn't mean he is wrong. Isn't there a saying that there is more than one way to skin a cat? (kind of gross, BTW).
An excerpt from Requiem for a Sports Bettor by David Hill.
"He’s known throughout the gambling world by the name Spanky....His backpack filled with bricks of cash, $150,000 worth....We stop at the edge of the Ocean Casino at the end of the boardwalk. Spanky hands me the backpack. 'I gotta leave you here. You don’t want to be seen on camera with me.” Why not?, I ask him, trying to mask my concern. 'They don’t let me bet in there. And if they saw you talking to me, they probably wouldn’t let you bet, either.' He’s known as a sharp player by every major bookmaker in the world. Spanky shakes my hand and turns and walks off down the boardwalk.
The Ocean is one of Atlantic City’s newest properties, and the tallest on the boardwalk. There isn’t much of a crowd as I amble into the 7,500-square-foot luxury sportsbook with my bag full of money. I ask to speak to the manager, and let him know that I’m going to bet the NCAA and NIT tournaments, and that I plan to bet big. Whenever Spanky has a pick for me, he’ll send me a text. I fill out all the necessary paperwork. Spanky texts me and tells me to try to get $10,000 on Xavier -5 against Toledo in the first round of the NIT. The line for the game isn’t yet on the big screen in the sportsbook, so I ask the manager, and he picks up the phone and calls Las Vegas. He comes back and tells me I have a bet at $5,000.
I give him the money and take the betslip, then return to my chair in the front row. The game then appears on the screen, only the line is now Xavier -4.5. Spanky sees it from his screen, wherever he is, because he texts me “They disrespected you.” Spanky tells me to try and get another 5K in. “You’ve got a bet,” the bookie says. I hand him $5,000 more. The line moved back to -5. “Bet it again,” Spanky texts. This time, the line moves to -5.5. “That’s enough,” Spanky texts."
Spanky’s model thought the game should have been Xavier -7.5. When I left the casino the line was already at -7...The following day the Xavier Musketeers will defeat the Toledo Rockets by 14 points
"What are you going to do when the bonus whore money runs out and you can't win anymore?" said the grizzled old handicapper.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm"What are you going to do when the bonus whore money runs out and you can't win anymore?" said the grizzled old handicapper.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzNo, for most you have to be in-state to bet. You could set up people in multiple states (kind of how we tried to recruit Egyptians and Brits so we could use Pinnacle -- LOL -- didn't work out) and go from there. But the promos and parlay boosts are gimmicks. They won't sustain. And your accounts will be cross-referenced and data-mined. You have no control over what account info is shared with whom.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
You're not going to be able to hide what you're doing. Then you'll be shut down.
"Who gives a fuck. I'm just taking the bonus whore money while it lasts" said the AP.
"That's what they have been saying for the last 20 years, and that's what they will be saying 20 years from now, I guess I'll be trying to Advantage Play Heaven since we will probably all be dead by the time it all ends ." said the AP
The closest thing you get to using software or AI is opening up your grinder app to cruise for BBC you FraudQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJThat is amazing mickey crimm. Thanks for this post. So where can we get our hands on this software? ;) Just kidding..sort of.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Just another case of software, computers and A.I. changing everything. :cool:
So I use software in my card counting. The software from my dear Friend Norm Wattenberger which he calls Qfit products (just a plug for good old Norm). And you and many VP players have used software for quite a while. I never did use software with VP, because my play was very elementary and my advantage from the disproportionate mailer free play offers.
But here is the thing. Prior to software and computers in every home, there were guys still beating blackjack via card counting and still beating VP right. The software just works as an aid now. A tool if you will. And that is what I equate redietz to. The guy who was beating blackjack and video poker before the tools we have now in computers and software. That is not to say redietz doesn't use software of computers. That is not what I am saying. But when he started out, he did it the old school way I think. So why this push to say the old school way is wrong. He has been successful doing it that way for decades. I have no reason to doubt him. Do you mickey? Do you really doubt him?
I mean I still have the pleasure of communicating with some old school blackjack players. That would be guys that played in the 80's and 90's. Basically, anything before 2000. I would never say their way was wrong and they couldn't win their way. They did it! :rolleyes:
My take is redietz believes strongly in his way, an old school way. And doesn't seem very accepting of newer methods. But that doesn't mean he is wrong. Isn't there a saying that there is more than one way to skin a cat? (kind of gross, BTW).
This whole conversation is like an intro to gambling for the mathematically lacking. You went off pontificating to no one in particular. You can find plenty of explanations of what people are talking about when they reference EV. Rediet should never have clowned on APs around here.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJSee, this is a very typical troll response. No surprise it is coming from you. You form teams, based on that you don't like someone (something you have admitted and prove every day), then you call names, like coach belly does with ditz, and TewlJ and mickey has followed coach belly. Who ever thought mickey would be following coach belly's lead. :confused: This name calling is an attempt to demonize.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
God forbid, there should be an honest discussion, without all the polarization and name calling where someone, maybe even me, could actually learn something. I mean I would like to know how EV stops being about the math and starts being about someone's opinion that a team will do better than the odds or point spread with no explanation as to how that "opinion" came to be.
Now lets' get into how lines occur. And someone correct me if I am wrong. It is my understanding that there is an early line posted somewhere for football on Sunday night, that may not be available to everyone, and based wagers on that early line, the line moves to the first publicly available line posted usually Monday morning. And from there it moves further based on how much play each side is getting.
But lets get back to this earl(iest) of lines that comes out Sunday night. How is that determined? That is based on somebody's (supposedly an expert handicapper's) opinion. Someone's opinion just really can't be a part of expected value. TRUE expected value is based on math, not opinion. So if a sports bettor is beating that opinion of the line which starts out as one guys opinion and moves based oin the public's opinion, that should be called something else. I don't know what it should be called, but it is not the pure definition of EV.
Then you back his idiotic points up. THe reason you were put on team redietz should be self-explanatory. Only you feel the need to teach everyone basic stuff about what EV means in a game of pure chance and well defined outcomes. There may other forums for that but it sure ain't here, pal.
You and Redietz both crave attention for your "gambling" and lots of us don't even really believe either of you. How can you even be a successful sports bettor and not use the concept of EV? Only if you're playing in goddam contests where lines and vig don't matter. And why on earth would you do that? It is just layers of crap.
I've never formed teams with who I like. People I like tend to see things in a similar way so these things occur. Redietz isn't liked for reasons given many times over. Pay attention. Typical Kewl making shit up from what others post to his everyday liefe.
I see value in predicting line movement if that's included in what we consider handicapping.
I would love for Red to take a week out and show us his skills. Give us pre-game line movement predictions etc and explain his thinking and explain what the value is and why.
.
over the last few years there has been a large increase in the no. of States that allow sports betting - now there are only 16 States where it is not legal
because of this there is heightened competition between the books - and they're offering lots of crazy ass in game and otherwise prop bets that the gamblers love
some of these prop bets are mispriced - and sometimes by a lot - it takes quite a bit of time and knowledge to uncover them
and there is definitely the possibility of arbitrage - guaranteeing a win - by playing one book against another from time to time
.
Sorry Half Smoke, nothing to see here, according to Red that's nothing but full Smoke and mirrors. Even though it's been 20 years, and the bonus and good non-Candy Happing opportunities have gotten better in many instances... it's still much better for you to spend years perfecting and honing in on a specific sport and handicapping that. And don't even think about making any +EV parlays, that's for idiots.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfSorry Half Smoke, nothing to see here, according to Red that's nothing but full Smoke and mirrors. Even though it's been 20 years, and the bonus and good non-Candy Happing opportunities have gotten better in many instances... it's still much better for you to spend years perfecting and honing in on a specific sport and handicapping that. And don't even think about making any +EV parlays, that's for idiots.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
I'm going to answer that with a line from a Ray Charles song:
"Well I guess if you say so
I'll have to pack my bags and go"
.
1) For the record, I never said handicapping was learn-able, teach-able, or do-able. What I said was that's how the people who win long-term, win. Most people do not have the ability to do it, as in 99.999%. It's not freshman college math.
2) What I've stated is that there's nothing wrong pursuing lunch-money props middles and arbitrage. I do it myself. But most props have $300 to 1K limits, so when you do find an arbitrage, you're making lunch money. Nothing wrong with a free lunch, every day if you can do it. But it's a lot of work.
3) The example I give of "a lot of work" is when I won the Heritage Sports Race to the Super Bowl about 10 years ago, which resulted in 25K in free SB wagers. I used the money to try to middle SB props. It is hard work; you check numbers every couple of hours at a dozen books. I went to LV and incorporated brick-and-mortar in the process. But, again, with limits of $300 to 1K on many SB props, I wound up making dozens of bets to exhaust the 25K. I middled one prop -- the "longest punt." LOL. Brutal work spread over two weeks to middle one wager for a nickel a side.
4) To try to arbitrage for larger amounts on regular wagers creates logistical issues for most people. You need well into five digits spread at a dozen or more books.
5) Boutique offshores will have the most end-of-bell-curve lines. By "boutique" I mean small, privately owned. These are also the offshores where you're most likely to not get paid or they go out of business. If one fails or they decide to label you "professional," you've lost whatever edge you think you have.
6) Using the term "EV" for something that is not mathematically circumscribed is inappropriate without bracketing "EV" with the words "in my opinion," "in my subjective estimation," or simply "I think." Pretending there is precision when there is not is no way to gamble.
Again, the main question is:
Handicappers can do every blessed thing "APs" do and have been doing them for decades. Arbitrage? Check. Middles shooting? Check. Bonus exploitation? Check. Using programs to monitor line moves to facilitate arbitrage and middles shooting? Check. Plus, handicappers know the teams. They also know the public, which means they have some non-zero effectiveness anticipating line shifts before they happen. Thus, the question becomes: What do "APs" think that they do that handicappers can't?
If you think you know what you're talking about you wouldn't be so terrified about facing questions from Dancer and the Munch.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
"What do AP's think they can do that handicappers can't?" I question the premise of this statement. For some reason redietz is implying that AP's think they are better at betting sports than professional handicappers. Why the hell would any AP think that?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Tell us how the big money is made.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz