Blackjack: To Split or not to split

I don't want to confuse 98% of the blackjack world. But my research doesn't reveal the logic in most splits in a straight up single deck game.

Why would I double my investment on a proven losing split that I can't double? I have no chance of getting a blackjack. Now playing the hand "as is" could still win or losing your initial investment is worst case scenario. The consideration that seems to be overlooked is on the next hand for the same investment or adjusted I have the opportunity to get a blackjack or double down.

Splitting Aces and 99vs 4,5,6 88 vs 5,6,7 are worthy investments even without DAS. 77vs5,6 88vs4, and 99v7,8 are high value plays when the deck is rich in 10s and Aces. But the rest of the field are losing propositions for the most part. Logic is splitting may work out to breaking even on two hands as opposed to losing one. But this does not consider the next hand should one not split.

Again, most splits like 22,33,66 have very little affect on SCORE one way or the other.

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Originally Posted by Moses

Splitting .......... 99v7,8 are high value plays when the deck is rich in 10s and Aces.

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Moses, splitting 9,9 vs 7 isn't even a basic strategy play. The index for single deck assuming no double after split is 6. It is no where near being in the same ball park as 9,9 vs 8 which is almost always a good split.

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Originally Posted by Midwest Player

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Originally Posted by Moses

Splitting .......... 99v7,8 are high value plays when the deck is rich in 10s and Aces.

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Moses, splitting 9,9 vs 7 isn't even a basic strategy play. The index for single deck assuming no double after split is 6. It is no where near being in the same ball park as 9,9 vs 8 which is almost always a good split.

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As I said, high value plays when the deck is rich in 10,As. It stands to reason because a 10 is likely in the hole under an 8 or 7. If you get just one 10 in the split you will have 19. Also, the EITS doesn't question the move as they would 10,10vs,5,6.

The value of the 99v8 comes when the count is higher. The threshold is very small at low or even counts from standing.

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Originally Posted by Moses

The value of the 99v8 comes when the count is higher. The threshold is very small at low or even counts from standing.

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Moses, again you got it wrong. The index for splitting 9,9 vs 8 is -14. so it is a play you almost always make while the index for 9,9 vs 7 is +6 which is a play you would seldom make. Can't you see that these two plays aren't even in the same ball park. I suggest you check the indexes in the back of Professional Blackjack for single deck.

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Originally Posted by Midwest Player

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Originally Posted by Moses

The value of the 99v8 comes when the count is higher. The threshold is very small at low or even counts from standing.

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Moses, again you got it wrong. The index for splitting 9,9 vs 8 is -14. so it is a play you almost always make while the index for 9,9 vs 7 is +6 which is a play you would seldom make. Can't you see that these two plays aren't even in the same ball park. I suggest you check the indexes in the back of Professional Blackjack for single deck.

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You see only what is easy to see. This is what I mean about threshold vs advantages.

Hand up Terms Quantity Hand % Win Loss Tie Win Loss Average Total $25
99 8 Split 50000 0.036% 38.30% 30.20% 31.50% 6.9 5.4 2.09 $76.2
99 8 No Spl 50000 0.056% 35.40% 29.00% 35.50% 9.9 8.1 1.38 $61.8

The difference on splitting vs non splitting over the course of 50k hands is $14.40 at a $25 bet minimum. There is no chance for a double or a blackjack. What you don't see is the next hand where you have the possibility of a double or blackjack. Chewing up cards is not prudent in a SDSU game as it shortens pen even more. Splitting with a large or max bet on the table gets more gain for the dollar invested. 99v7 jumps from a win percentage of 43.90% to 61.20% at (57.14%, Large cards remain vs small) or around TC 2 truncate.

The percentages are based on a CV Data 200M sim.

Moses, when you have two choices and one is clearly better than the other, why would you ever choose the one that is not the best.

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Originally Posted by Midwest Player

Moses, when you have two choices and one is clearly better than the other, why would you ever choose the one that is not the best.

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I take it you haven't played much single deck straight up. For one thing, you've double your investment on a minimum bet with only the chance to win another hand. No choice to double or get a blackjack. Taking the same $25, you can invest it on the next hand and have the opportunity for a double or a blackjack. Worse case scenario is you can only lose one hand if you only bet one hand. SCORE indicates splitting makes very little difference on most minimum bets. So why take the risk for pennies over months only to chew up cards which is not to your advantage.

How is $14.40 over a years worth of play "clearly" a better play? What is to say one hand might go the other way? Now you are down for the year. Everything people read is predicated on old theories. Sims are based on a threshold. Look at actual results. IF you play SDSU by the old books? You WILL lose.

Hand up Terms Quantity Hand % Win Loss Tie Win Loss Average Total $25
88 7 No Spl 50000 0.056% 34.00% 53.20% 12.90% 9.5 14.9 1.38 -$185.5
88 7 Split 50000 0.036% 43.20% 30.70% 26.20% 7.8 5.5 2.09 $117.6

Splitting 88v7 nets $117.60 while not splitting results in a $185.5 loss. THIS is "clearly" a better play.

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Originally Posted by Moses

I take it you haven't played much single deck straight up.

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I don't have much opportunity to play single deck blackjack. My game is double deck. Single deck is not available in my area.

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Originally Posted by Moses

Taking the same $25, you can invest it on the next hand and have the opportunity for a double or a blackjack.

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Or also have the opportunity to get a hard 16.

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Originally Posted by Moses

Sims are based on a threshold. Look at actual results. IF you play SDSU by the old books? You WILL lose.

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In the last 13 years I have made 14 trips to Wendover and played only single deck. My actual lifetime results in Wendover are in the black.

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Originally Posted by Midwest Player

Or also have the opportunity to get a hard 16. .

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What is to say you won't get a hard 16 by splitting? But it's for damn sure you won't get paid 3.2 with blackjack or be able to double with a 10,11 or any card. The odds of getting a two card 16 are 6.2%. The odds of it being vs 2-6 are 2.5%. The odds of getting a double with 10,11 are over 11%.

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Originally Posted by Midwest Player

In the last 13 years I have made 14 trips to Wendover and played only single deck. My actual lifetime results in Wendover are in the black.

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Small sample size. Big difference between being in the black and paying bills. You go on trips to play blackjack. I play blackjack to go on trips. If you play 1000 hands each trip that is 14,000 hands in 14 years at red chip tables with others. That's about 2 months worth of play for me at green/black chip tables all heads up. In addition, I practice probably 10k hands a month on Verite and run/study sims. My cost of doing biz is actually in the black. Travel time? Maybe 10 minutes.

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Originally Posted by Midwest Player

Or also have the opportunity to get a hard 16. .

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What is to say you won't get a hard 16 by splitting? But it's for damn sure you won't get paid 3.2 with blackjack or be able to double with a 10,11 or any card. The odds of getting a two card 16 are 6.2%. The odds of it being vs 2-6 are 2.5%. The odds of getting a double with 10,11 are 8.75%. Bj; 5.1%. A9; 1.27%. 20; 9.5%. 19; 5.06%

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Originally Posted by Moses

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Originally Posted by Midwest Player

Moses, when you have two choices and one is clearly better than the other, why would you ever choose the one that is not the best.

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I take it you haven't played much single deck straight up. For one thing, you've double your investment on a minimum bet with only the chance to win another hand. No choice to double or get a blackjack. Taking the same $25, you can invest it on the next hand and have the opportunity for a double or a blackjack. Worse case scenario is you can only lose one hand if you only bet one hand. SCORE indicates splitting makes very little difference on most minimum bets. So why take the risk for pennies over months only to chew up cards which is not to your advantage.

How is $14.40 over a years worth of play "clearly" a better play? What is to say one hand might go the other way? Now you are down for the year. Everything people read is predicated on old theories. Sims are based on a threshold. Look at actual results. IF you play SDSU by the old books? You WILL lose.

Hand up Terms Quantity Hand % Win Loss Tie Win Loss Average Total $25
88 7 No Spl 50000 0.056% 34.00% 53.20% 12.90% 9.5 14.9 1.38 -$185.5
88 7 Split 50000 0.036% 43.20% 30.70% 26.20% 7.8 5.5 2.09 $117.6

Splitting 88v7 nets $117.60 while not splitting results in a $185.5 loss. THIS is "clearly" a better play.

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Moses, you are changing horses in the middle of the stream. We were talking about splitting nines and suddenly you edit your post to talk about splitting eights.

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Originally Posted by Midwest Player

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Originally Posted by Moses

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Originally Posted by Midwest Player

Moses, when you have two choices and one is clearly better than the other, why would you ever choose the one that is not the best.

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I take it you haven't played much single deck straight up. For one thing, you've double your investment on a minimum bet with only the chance to win another hand. No choice to double or get a blackjack. Taking the same $25, you can invest it on the next hand and have the opportunity for a double or a blackjack. Worse case scenario is you can only lose one hand if you only bet one hand. SCORE indicates splitting makes very little difference on most minimum bets. So why take the risk for pennies over months only to chew up cards which is not to your advantage.

How is $14.40 over a years worth of play "clearly" a better play? What is to say one hand might go the other way? Now you are down for the year. Everything people read is predicated on old theories. Sims are based on a threshold. Look at actual results. IF you play SDSU by the old books? You WILL lose.

Hand up Terms Quantity Hand % Win Loss Tie Win Loss Average Total $25
88 7 No Spl 50000 0.056% 34.00% 53.20% 12.90% 9.5 14.9 1.38 -$185.5
88 7 Split 50000 0.036% 43.20% 30.70% 26.20% 7.8 5.5 2.09 $117.6

Splitting 88v7 nets $117.60 while not splitting results in a $185.5 loss. THIS is "clearly" a better play.

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Moses, you are changing horses in the middle of the stream. We were talking about splitting nines and suddenly you edit your post to talk about splitting eights.

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For you, a difference of $14.40 over the course of 50k hands was "clearly" monumental. I was showing you a clear distance. The differnce on 88v7 is $303.10 over the course of 50k hands.

Clearly, Several, Legions, are all words the BJFT crowd emloy to create noise. Read the numbers. Don't listen to the noise.

Hey Freighter. Glad to see you get it.

Hand up Terms Quantity Hand % Win Loss Tie Win Loss Average Total $5
88 7 No Spl 14000 0.056% 34.00% 53.20% 12.90% 2.7 4.2 1.38 -$10.4
88 7 Split 14000 0.036% 43.20% 30.70% 26.20% 2.2 1.5 2.09 $6.6
99 8 No Spl 14000 0.056% 35.40% 29.00% 35.50% 2.8 2.3 1.38 $3.5
99 8 Split 14000 0.036% 38.30% 30.20% 31.50% 1.9 1.5 2.09 $4.3

Now for a player that plays 14k hands over 13 years at a $5 table, the difference on 99v8 is 80 cents. On 88v7 it's $17. I can certainly see why he is fretting so much. The single deck game is painfully slow with more players at the table. So 14K hands is probably a stretch.

There was a guy many, many years ago that had a strategy that he thought could beat 6:5 BJ. It required four counts, three of them balanced, that had to be added or subtracted from each other depending on the hand. But, with all that extra work, he had no 22, 33, or 66 splits because he thought they were worthless. The strategy had a lower SCORE than HiLo with no side counts.

Norm writes ^:

Moses replies; Playing a single deck 6.5 game alone would knock the heck out of SCORE. These splits treated as hits do not change SCORE at all. The ones I listed in the OP are the ones that move SCORE the most. Even at that, it's less than 5% (except for the Aces). People see Basic Strategy they think it should be the gospel. However, because they are too lazy or ignorant to do any work, they do not understand the variations in basic strategy or the difference between a threshold and an advantage. Explain it them like you would a 6 year old and they still don't get it.

He may have other issues but he does know how to play BJ, especially SD. That game has its quirks.
Zee writes ^:

Moses replies: What issues? People around me or close to me have issues...wow, moumental! They say, "well, don't think about it." How does one do that when it comes so often? One can't just turn off their mind. No? That's why I excel at this game. I focus on the numbers and details in order to ALWAYS be at my best. It keeps my mind occupied rather than trying to solve others difficult problems I can't do anything about.

He is obviously talking about NDAS. I don't know about BS. The strategies for these plays really only consider EV. There are other concerns to be factored in like volatility, card eating or card conservation depending on the situation, heat. If there is very little difference in EV volatility the EV produces is a "tie-breaker". If there are few cards left or few cards to start with, like in pitch games, splitting can make the difference of an early shuffle or an extra round. Some splits are heat magnets. They have the most EV but are only worth doing in the right situations. Quite often you are better off deferring the split.

I think you need to consider he was clearly talking about NDAS BJ.

T3 writes ^:

Moses replies. Well said. The OP assumes No DAS and describes as such. A DAS game would produce an entirely different set of numbers. Without having run and studied a DAS sim from CV Data, my guess is one would want to be very aggressive in splitting. Also, one might have to change the tag values assigned to each card in order to get the most out of the DAS opportunity. SCORE will make that determination.

Unlike you, Flash, KJ, Ryemo, and a few others this person has never disclosed how much money he has won in a year. What is your basis for saying he knows how to play blackjack?

Midwest Player writes ^:

Moses replies; What a moron! For one thing it's no ones biz. For another, it might insult the wrong people who work very hard to earn a living. "Clearly," since that is a word you like. Anyone can pull a number out of thin air and you'll buy into it. Ryemo and Flash are completely full of crap.