The 2020 Elections

QuidproquoJoe is dog meat. Forget about him polling 27% nationally. His numbers are in the teens in the early primary states. Bloomberg will splinter his vote even more. Sanders/Harris voters will coalesce behind Warren. It's her nomination to lose. This is great news for Trump. It will push the majority of independent voters in the general election towards him.

Wall Street is backing off on donations to the dems because of Warren and her intended massive tax hikes.

The impeachment hearings are driving Trumps campaign war chest higher and higher. He's at 150 million now and it will grow much higher.

Twitter banned campaign adds because of Trumps campaign war chest. He can simply out spend the dems. Heavy pressure from the left is on Zuckerburg to do the same on Facebook.

Chickenshit dems.

Mickey, I agree with you that Bloomberg will hurt Biden. The last thing the Dems need is another billionaire running for President. Bloomberg is going no where. Just another 77 year old man. Sanders is too old. I thought he was too old in the last election. His heart attack did him in. It is going to be between Warren and Pete B. I hope it is Pete.

I'm afraid if Warren gets the nomination she will drive too many independents away. What will really need is a middle of the road candidate and that is Pete. Pete has a good chance of winning Iowa, but all of Sanders supporters are going to get behind Warren.

I also don't like Warren's idea of another wealth tax. We already have one. It is called the estate tax or death tax and it is paid when you die.

Don't rule out Pete. He is going to win Iowa.

The Dems take the Governor in deep red Louisiana. Pete B is the leader in Iowa poll. Mickey, you better recover to witness the blue landslide that is coming in 2020.

Mickey, first off, I hope you get well enough to read this soon.

Anyway, while I am on the same side as you politically, don't dismiss Biden. He is the only major candidate with black support, which is super important in the primary. Additionally, Warren has slipped, and she was seen as the only frontrunner ahead of him.

I have bets on Biden at +500 to win the primary, and I think that's great value.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Mickey, first off, I hope you get well enough to read this soon.

Anyway, while I am on the same side as you politically, don't dismiss Biden. He is the only major candidate with black support, which is super important in the primary. Additionally, Warren has slipped, and she was seen as the only frontrunner ahead of him.

I have bets on Biden at +500 to win the primary, and I think that's great value.

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First I also hope Mickey gets well soon to participate on the board again.

Dan, don't be so sure about Biden and having the Black Vote. I can just picture it now at one of his rallies in a big city. Talking about if the Republicans win the elections that they are going to put you people all back in chains.

The Democrat nominee is not in the race yet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Mickey, first off, I hope you get well enough to read this soon.

Anyway, while I am on the same side as you politically, don't dismiss Biden. He is the only major candidate with black support, which is super important in the primary. Additionally, Warren has slipped, and she was seen as the only frontrunner ahead of him.

I have bets on Biden at +500 to win the primary, and I think that's great value.

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Dan, I assume you mean +500 to win the nomination? I am curious. How and when did you get +500 on Biden? I mean he is a co-favorite and I believe Warren has peeked, so I would rate Biden as the favorite on the Dem side right now. So +500 is a great bet on the favorite.

As for the black vote, that means nothing at this point. The black vote doesn't really come into focus until after Iowa and New Hampshire vote. Back in 2008 Hilary Clinton had the black vote over a black or half black candidate Barack Obama, until Obama did well in Iowa. That is when the blacks decided Obama really had a chance and he picked up the black support.

So right now, that support that Biden has with the Blacks has little meaning. It just means they know who he is and he was the First black presidents pick. If someone like Harris jumped in the polls and did surprisingly well in Iowa, she could all of the sudden attract black vote just like Obama did. Warren and Sander don't really appeal to the blacks, so I don't think they will pick up a lot of support even if they do well. Someone like Buttigieg is a wild card. On the surface he has some issues that will probably limit him getting a lot of black support. But if he does really well in Iowa and New Hampshire as polls now suggest, he could get a second look from the black community and be off and running.

But I really think the most likely scenario is Black support end up being fairly splintered. It won't be like other cycles where there is one favorite candidate among blacks, everyone will get some support, Biden probably the most, but not a majority. That might make the black vote less important than it sometimes is. Just one guys opinion.

KJ, I don't understand why you are not committed to Pete Buttigieg. He is a moderate, at least when compared to Warren and Sanders. I'm sure he will fight for gay rights which should be important to you.

If he gets the Dem nomination, the black folks will eventually back him as they surely don't want Trump. He has a very impressive resume.

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Originally Posted by Midwest Player

KJ, I don't understand why you are not committed to Pete Buttigieg. He is a moderate, at least when compared to Warren and Sanders. I'm sure he will fight for gay rights which should be important to you.

If he gets the Dem nomination, the black folks will eventually back him as they surely don't want Trump. He has a very impressive resume.

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Not one of your brightest statements. Can you ever be objective?