The illusion of EV - Setting you up for a Bad Beat?

With all the discussion of EV and return tables, do you really feel you will ever play enough to experience and see the true "return" from a game?


Lets look at the most standard of Video Poker games - Jacks or Better 9/6 Full Pay

In order to get to the full 99.5439% return a total of 1,661,102,543,100 combinations of play need to be realized.

Even if you play 1,661,102,543,100 hands the player will not see 1,661,102,543,100 combinations as many hands can repeat resulting in more losses / winnings.

If anything the "return" of a game or "expected return" is just something to chase. ""I'm playing this game it has a 99.54% return I'm not going to lose much."" or ""For every $100 I put in I'm only going to lose Fifty Cents.""

Are these "return values" figured to help compulsive gamblers feel that chasing their losses will help them get closer to this "return?"
Or do these "return values" actually just create an illusion that these games are close to beatable with the help of a small percentage of a kick back?

These machines have no memory (at least they are not supposed to) so they don't keep track of XXX many hands being played so X should be paid out here. While the probability math says it should come, it does not mean that it definitely will.

The probability says there will be more losing hands and there is simply no guarantee of a winner no matter how "correct" the hold.

So why chase a return table?

Being on the plus side of variance is the place to me... That is what to look for... That is what will win regardless of the pay table...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BadBeet

With all the discussion of EV and return tables, do you really feel you will ever play enough to experience and see the true "return" from a game?


Lets look at the most standard of Video Poker games - Jacks or Better 9/6 Full Pay

In order to get to the full 99.5439% return a total of 1,661,102,543,100 combinations of play need to be realized.

Even if you play 1,661,102,543,100 hands the player will not see 1,661,102,543,100 combinations as many hands can repeat resulting in more losses / winnings.

If anything the "return" of a game or "expected return" is just something to chase. ""I'm playing this game it has a 99.54% return I'm not going to lose much."" or ""For every $100 I put in I'm only going to lose Fifty Cents.""

Are these "return values" figured to help compulsive gamblers feel that chasing their losses will help them get closer to this "return?"
Or do these "return values" actually just create an illusion that these games are close to beatable with the help of a small percentage of a kick back?

These machines have no memory (at least they are not supposed to) so they don't keep track of XXX many hands being played so X should be paid out here. While the probability math says it should come, it does not mean that it definitely will.

The probability says there will be more losing hands and there is simply no guarantee of a winner no matter how "correct" the hold.

So why chase a return table?

Being on the plus side of variance is the place to me... That is what to look for... That is what will win regardless of the pay table...

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Probability is the guide in gambling. There is no workable strategy to keep yourself on the plus side of variance?

Trying to stick to lower variance situations can help.

The problem with VP is that the royal usually makes up about 2% of the machine's return, so you'll be taking a pretty serious beating for awhile if you going through an extended "royal slump".

This is why I tell people playing VP for relatively few hands (even something like 5000-10000) that they need to subtract 2% from the return and calculate their non-royal average expected loss, because chances are they won't hit a royal.

Wow. I had to double check the author of the first post. I thought it was Rob Singer's post.

Isn't it interesting....

My records show I’m damn close if not spot on EV, at least for plays where an exact EV figure can be figured out. If I expect to give up 1.1% in EV on something and I’m giving up 1.2% in actual losses, so what? Even if I hit a really big dealt hand and have a huge winner, that’ll change it from -1.2% to maybe -1.0% or -0.8% or so. So again — who cares?

Obviously if you’re gonna go play $10k at a place and EV is -1.1%, you’re not going to lose $110 every time. On average, you’ll get damn close though.

Others, the EV is an estimate since I’m not gonna pour out days or weeks to figure out the exact EV. You may need to be a science rocket to figure out the exact value of a complicated play, but you don’t need to be one to figure out if it’s good or not (sometimes though).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by RS__

My records show I’m damn close if not spot on EV, at least for plays where an exact EV figure can be figured out. If I expect to give up 1.1% in EV on something and I’m giving up 1.2% in actual losses, so what? Even if I hit a really big dealt hand and have a huge winner, that’ll change it from -1.2% to maybe -1.0% or -0.8% or so. So again — who cares?

Obviously if you’re gonna go play $10k at a place and EV is -1.1%, you’re not going to lose $110 every time. On average, you’ll get damn close though.

Others, the EV is an estimate since I’m not gonna pour out days or weeks to figure out the exact EV. You may need to be a science rocket to figure out the exact value of a complicated play, but you don’t need to be one to figure out if it’s good or not (sometimes though).

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And exactly how much do you subtract from all those "realized" phantom bucks for your unproductive waste-of-life spent inside casinos, where because you're too lazy to get a job you piss away paid days off, health insurance benefits, retirement and social security/pension benefits, company matching 401k contributions, and a good healthy dose of self-worth and dignity?

Wise up.