AdvantagePotato’s dumb tweet on UX

Printable View

06-13-2020, 03:24 PM
Ex-AP

AdvantagePotato’s dumb tweet on UX

First tweet was a guy flopping a full house on UX on DDB (looks to be 7/5 version!)

I like AdvantagePotato (AP) since his name is a pun on Annoying Parasites. I agree with a lot of things AP tweets regarding +EV plays so I was shocked by AP’s response.

Here is the tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/PotatoAdv...01658049880065

AP stated: “No, always hold strictly aces in any DDB, TDB game.“ [1]

Someone needs to tell AP he should **NOT** give advise on UX; I would appreciate if someone DM and tells AP to STOP giving Video Poker advice if he continues like this.

In the photo, the guy is playing 10 coins and a winning full house gives 12X multipliers on the NEXT HAND.

In essence, AP is telling the guy to throw away A GUARANTEED 36X (in total) on the next draw / hand.

This is a NO Brainer in my book: Do not throw away Guaranteed 36X for a long shot on quads aces; to throw away a guaranteed 36x like this situation means you need to have your head examined.

The other thing AP gets wrong is the player is throwing away a GUARANTEED winner at 3X, but that is minor compared to the 36X.

Seriously, how often are you going to run into a play where the EV is almost +35X (less 1X because it for 1 basis in video poker)

[1] In plain vanilla DDB, you break a pat or dealt full house for a chance at Quad Aces & Quad Ace plus kicker. The EV for chasing quad Aces+ in the plain vanilla is way higher than pat full house. This is non plain vanilla VP.
06-13-2020, 03:36 PM
Ex-AP

Clarification:

In UX, there is this rare sequence of two consecutive hands that people are not aware of:
1) Flop a full house ... must hold all 5 cards
2) Flop a RF (Royal Flush)

The guy in the photo is half way to $36,000 (1 in roughly 650,000 chance though).
06-13-2020, 04:01 PM
Ex-AP

Another Clarification:

Flopping Quad Aces with kicker with 12X on Triple Play in DDB isn’t the same as flopping RF’s with 12X’s, respectively; however, it’s only worth $18,000 for the same $3.75 wager.

I’ve been told this happens a lot and I’ve seen a few photos myself.
06-13-2020, 04:38 PM
jbjb

A lot depends on which current multipliers are there. You'd need the UX app to figure this out.
06-13-2020, 05:16 PM
Ex-AP

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbjb

A lot depends on which current multipliers are there. You'd need the UX app to figure this out.

It was 3X GUARANTEED on the Full House if player kept all 5 cards; but 3X was GUARANTEED nonetheless.

It was 12X GUARANTEED on the next hand for each line if the guy kept the flopped full house.

If you are telling me we need an app for this situation, then there is something horribly wrong with UX AP-play and education of UX AP in general.

I know card counters who make a living with 50 bp or 0.5% edge. You give them 1% edge and they would be pleased as punch. You give them 2% edge and they would be incredibly rich.

The “edge” in this example in almost 35X and you are saying we need an App? Seriously?!?!
06-13-2020, 05:24 PM
Ex-AP

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ex-AP

It was 3X GUARANTEED on the Full House if player kept all 5 cards; but 3X was GUARANTEED nonetheless.

It was 12X GUARANTEED on the next hand for each line if the guy kept the flopped full house.

If you are telling me we need an app for this situation, then there is something horribly wrong with UX AP-play and education of UX AP in general.

I know card counters who make a living with 50 bp or 0.5% edge. You give them 1% edge and they would be pleased as punch. You give them 2% edge and they would be incredibly rich.

The “edge” in this example in almost 35X and you are saying we need an App? Seriously?!?!

Clarification:

It 12X guaranteed per line so edge is almost 12X on a per line basis. I stand corrected.
06-13-2020, 05:35 PM
Ex-AP

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ex-AP

Clarification:

It 12X guaranteed per line so edge is almost 12X on a per line basis. I stand corrected.

I don’t have a calculator so I will write down the equation:

[12X * (the game’s payback)] less 1 ought to be the edge. You subtract one because video poker is on a “for 1” basis. So if the game has a 96% payback, the edge is somewhere like 10.5 on a per line.

I apologize for writing in haste and will refrain from writing extratemporaneously when people need factual & verifiable information. Again, sorry about that.

But my claim that AdvantagePotato’s advise is dumb still stands: 10.5ish edge is too much to give up.
06-13-2020, 07:51 PM
Mission146

EX-AP is incorrect, and this decision is not particularly close.

First thing you do is you plug in your 7/5 paytable into here:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...hand-analyzer/

Which returns a value of:

Hold Three Aces: 12.592969

Keep Full House: 7.00000000

Now, there is the matter of the 3x multipliers on the current hands, so I'm going to do this on a one-hand basis because it's all the same thing:

12.592969 * 3 = 37.778907

7.00000 * 3 = 21.00000000

We also know that the game returns .960969 * 11 = 10.570659 Added Value (per hand) to the next hand.

That brings the final value of keeping the Full House to 31.570659 (half units per hand).

Keeping the three Aces is automatically better. It's already better, even ignoring the following factors:

---Each Three-of-a-Kind final hand receives a 4x multiplier.

---A full house final hand receives a 12x multiplier, which just requires drawing two of the same cards.

---Any Quads get a 2x multiplier.

EX-AP is likely correct if there are no multipliers on the current hand. I think his OP doesn't fully appreciate the effects of the amount won on the current hand being multiplied.
06-13-2020, 10:08 PM
jbjb

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ex-AP

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbjb

A lot depends on which current multipliers are there. You'd need the UX app to figure this out.

It was 3X GUARANTEED on the Full House if player kept all 5 cards; but 3X was GUARANTEED nonetheless.

It was 12X GUARANTEED on the next hand for each line if the guy kept the flopped full house.

If you are telling me we need an app for this situation, then there is something horribly wrong with UX AP-play and education of UX AP in general.

I know card counters who make a living with 50 bp or 0.5% edge. You give them 1% edge and they would be pleased as punch. You give them 2% edge and they would be incredibly rich.

The “edge” in this example in almost 35X and you are saying we need an App? Seriously?!?!

I meant overall. Sorry for not clarifying that.
06-14-2020, 05:27 PM
Ex-AP

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mission146

EX-AP is incorrect, and this decision is not particularly close.

First thing you do is you plug in your 7/5 paytable into here:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...hand-analyzer/

Which returns a value of:

Hold Three Aces: 12.592969

Keep Full House: 7.00000000

Now, there is the matter of the 3x multipliers on the current hands, so I'm going to do this on a one-hand basis because it's all the same thing:

12.592969 * 3 = 37.778907

7.00000 * 3 = 21.00000000

We also know that the game returns .960969 * 11 = 10.570659 Added Value (per hand) to the next hand.

That brings the final value of keeping the Full House to 31.570659 (half units per hand).

Keeping the three Aces is automatically better. It's already better, even ignoring the following factors:

---Each Three-of-a-Kind final hand receives a 4x multiplier.

---A full house final hand receives a 12x multiplier, which just requires drawing two of the same cards.

---Any Quads get a 2x multiplier.

EX-AP is likely correct if there are no multipliers on the current hand. I think his OP doesn't fully appreciate the effects of the amount won on the current hand being multiplied.

Documenting this post.
06-14-2020, 05:37 PM
Mission146

Ummm...okay, but the edit window has expired anyway.