Last minute degen pick
Lakers/Clippers - Under 220 (219 ok)
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Last minute degen pick
Lakers/Clippers - Under 220 (219 ok)
Lost yesterday.
Today:
Mliwaukee/Boston - Under 223.5
More later.. maybe
Also:
Sacramento +7.5 at Denver
Split 'em, with Sac winning outright, and the Boston under losing by a lot.
Today's morning game:
New Orleans +140 (moneyline) at Miami
New Orleans actually roared back from down almost 20 in the 3rd, to bring it within 6 in the mid-4th. Then they fell apart. Oh well.
I have one more:
Boston/Brooklyn - Over 230
0-2 yesterday. Ugh.
Admittedly off to a bad start this week, but I do like this one:
Memphis -1.5 vs. Atlanta
Horrendous start. Lost again.
If any of you lost today in NFL and want to get even by tailing an NBA bettor who got clobbered this week, go for this one:
Phoenix -3.5 vs. Sacramento
Bizarre back-to-back same matchup in same venue, 2 consecutive days.
Sac won yesterday, Phoenix should take it today.
Won yesterday.
Weird Houston/Denver game tonight.
Houston is super-short-handed due to both injuries and COVID. John Wall, Eric Gordon, and 4 others are out.
Denver hasn't looked very good, though they took Kings to OT before losing. (It should be noted that Denver was a 7.5 point favorite in that game, however -- one of the only two picks I've won so far!)
I can't even predict how this will go, regarding the spread, which is Denver -6.5. Easier to predict is that this won't be a defensive contest, and the shorthanded Rockets aren't going to assert themselves defensively, while the Nuggets just haven't played much defense thus far.
The money has all gone the other way so far, but I'm going to be a ploppy and still fire the over, which has moved down several points since earlier today. I rarely do this, but I feel the money is on the wrong side of this one.
Houston/Denver - Over 221.5
There we go.
Bet like a ploppy and won. Really liked the pick though.
Won 2 in a row now, slowly getting back toward even, with a 3-5 record to start the year.
Last minute:
New York vs. Cleveland - Over 216
Bad first quarter for me, as Cleveland couldn't score. I knew I should've gone with the Knicks spread instead. Cleveland's 3-0 is so hollow.
Okay, here's a second over:
Orlando vs. OKC - Over 218
Split 'em, with Orlando over winning.
Now 4-6.
Last minute:
Boston -7 vs. Memphis
Both teams down players, but Memphis has no Morant and Jackson and a ton of others, and should really struggle today. Tatum IS playing.
Easy win yesterday, moving me to 5-6.
Today:
Philadelphia -3.5 vs. Orlando
New York at Toronto - Under 215.5
Both were blowout covers.
That's 3 super easy wins in a row. Nice way to close out the year. My awful 1-5 start is now a more respectable 7-6.
3 picks for the 4pm PST games coming up. Hurry!
Charlotte -4 vs Memphis (-4.5 ok)
Miami -1.5 at Dallas
Boston at Detroit - Over 213.5
One more:
Atlanta at Brooklyn - Under 244.5
Starts in 30 min
1-3 so far, only winning Atlanta under.
I am of the belief that the Warriors will pull a (small) upset tonight.
I'm going to fire on the moneyline.
Golden State +145 vs. Portland
Ugly 1-4 day
Here's a few NBA for today, starting very shortly:
OKC/Orlando - Under 216.5
OKC +170 moneyline
New York/Indiana - Under 215
FYI: NY has scored 95 or fewer in 3 of 5 games, and has allowed 100 or fewer in 2 of 5 games
Toronto / New Orleans - Under 215.5
Somehow all the money is coming in on the over on this one, but I don't see it.
I think it's because some believe Siakam will be fired up when coming back from his 1-game suspension. Still, this is a matchup of two teams who usually can't score.
New Orleans has scored under 100 in 3 of their 5 games, and Toronto has also been held to 100 or fewer in 3 of their first 4 games.
Let's also throw the Toronto -1 in there, as well, as I also believe Siakam will have a big game.
Wish I didn't fire on Toronto because both lost, while my first 3 earlier picks all won, including the +170.
I'm now 11-12 but only 0.29 units down.
Here's one with a ton of time before tipoff:
Portland at Golden State - Over 235 (235.5 ok)
Took it down yesterday, up to 12-12, +0.71 units.
Won an over like a ploppy yesterday, so let's do two more:
Philadelphia/Charlotte - Over 221.5
Toronto/Boston - Over 218.5
One more. Let's make another pick related to the Hornets game:
Charlotte +8
1-2 on Monday, only winning the Toronto over.
Starting at 4:05 PT:
Cleveland +180 (moneyline) at Orlando
Cavs blew out to a lead of over 10 points, then shit the bed and are getting slammed.
Let's try to get it back with this:
Sacramento/Chicago - Under 228.5
Lost on Wednesday
Here's a last minute one for you:
New Orleans -7.5 vs. Charlotte
New Orleans blew a 20 point lead
Sad!
Last minute moneyline:
Phoenix +130 at Indiana
More later
A moneyline for 5:05pm PT today:
Minnesota +152 vs. San Antonio
Note: Townes may return today, with limited minutes. Game time decision.
So close to hitting both. Minnesota missed the final shot... twice -- first to win in regulation, then to tie in OT.
Did hit the +130 Phoenix.
Today:
New York +185 (moneyline) vs. Denver
San Antonio at Minnesota Part Deux - Under 231.5
1-1 the other day, winning the under.
Thanks to the Harden trade, the Nets will be very shorthanded, with only 9 players on the roster. Harden can't play, Irving still out (lol), etc.
I already discussed the Knicks.
Starts in a few
NY/Brooklyn - Under 217
If you missed that, here's one starting at 5:05 PT
Memphis +119 (moneyline) at Minnesota
Feels good to get a dog line against terrible Minnesota, even if they're against the crappy Grizzlies.
1-1 on Wednesday, winning a surprising comeback with Memphis.
Damn bookmakers must read this site.
Remember that essay I posted about the absurdly low totals which keep occurring when two low-scoring teams play each other? Suddenly we're not seeing those sweet 206-212 lines anymore.
Today's line on the Knicks/Cavs is 197.
I still am firing under.
Speaking of unders, let's also throw one on the late game tonight between the Kings and Clippers.
NY at Cleveland - Under 197
Clippers at Sacramento - Under 226.5
Some people I know are tempted to fire Memphis again in the sequel against Minnesota. There are two reasons I'm leery about that one: 1) The Wolves are pissed that they tossed away a 12-point, end-3rd lead, where they lost by 11. I think they will actually play hard. 2) The line moved based upon the report that Morant might be back, but he might be rusty AND will almost surely be limited in minutes. I'm not touching it.
How many dollars equal 1 unit?
I just want to note that readers should be aware of line moves. I happened to be watching the Kings total because of a promo available offshore. The 226 1/2 was the absolute low point for that line during the day. The line opened in the 231 range. I was looking for the Over, waited on it, but assumed incorrectly as it hit 226 1/2 two hours before game time that it might fall further. I got stuck with an Over 227 1/2.
The problem with taking an Under 226 1/2 is that in practical terms, you were laying a teaser compared to the opening line.
Yes, I knew I laid a late and moved line (and lost). Didn't end up mattering though.
0-2 for the day
Moneyline alert!!
The Bulls have played 4 very close games and barely come up short each time.
Today they will break through and beat the Mavericks.
Also under.
So:
Chicago +230 vs. Dallas
Chicago/Dallas - Under 226
Nailed 'em both, for a nice 3.21 unit boost.
Well since I'm up over 3 units today, why not give this one a shot:
Utah -1.5 at Denver
Utah won and covered, so I had a very nice day today. Here's an update on my record:
On January 3, I was 12-12, up 0.71 units.
Since then, here were my performances:
1-2 (-1.09 units)
0-2 (-2.00 units)
0-1 (-1.00 units)
1-1 (+0.30 units)
1-1 (-0.09 units)
1-1 (-0.09 units)
0-2 (-2.00 units)
3-0 (+4.12 units)
Total 1/4-1/17 = 7-10 (-1.85 units)
Total for season: 19-22 (-1.14 units)
NBA coming up in a few mins:
Milwaukee vs Brooklyn - Under 240.5
Well, that one didn't work out. First half was good, second half not so much. 248 total, so I lost by 7.5.
I'm confused.
How do you win or lose .09 units or 4.12 units?
Let's say that a unit is 100 dollars so you are up 185 dollars for the season thus far or if a unit is 1 dollar you are up $1.85?
Units confuse me just like the metric system.
So much easier for me to deal in cash and round numbers.
I haven't made a bet in the last few days.
I'm looking at the Rangers and the Avalanche today as my best choices.
Probably just the Puck Line and Avalanche as it seems the easiest.
Still undecided though.
I have two tickets from the Packers game I still need to cash.
That's over 3,400 dollars just sitting at the Book waiting for me to pick up.
I have no idea how many units that would be.
Cosmo owes me $1,470 of that amount and they have the 5000 point key game and monster free play to pick up so I guess I need to drag my lazy ass over there.
Fast Pay should be implemented in every Casino in the world!
*** MONEYLINE ALERT ***
This is a big one. The Kings will break through tonight and catch the Clippers sleeping.
Sacramento +428 at Clippers
Also... Dallas will win.
Dallas -1.5 at Indiana
(In case you're wondering, I lost the under 2 days ago.)
Here's how I'm doing it for the purposes of record keeping here:
Each time I lose, I lose 1 unit no matter what. So if I bet a +425 underdog, I will win 4.25 units if the pick wins, and I will lose 1 unit if the pick loses.
With a spread, I'm assuming a line of -110. Sometimes it's higher, sometimes it's lower, but it averages -110, and that's standard for a spread line, so I'm just assuming that to make it easier. So if I win a spread pick, I get 0.91 units. If I lose the spread pick, I lose 1 unit.
I apologize for hijacking your thread Druff, I get the impression this is the only thread you read, so here it goes. Head on over to the NEWELL thread, lots of action, your opinion is welcomed. Things are heating up. Not quite to the same extent as your CHRISSY thread though, Join us.
So Sacramento didn't quite play like I thought. +428 didn't win for me, though that's the reason it's +428.
Dallas pick was gold.
I seem to have horrible timing with Knicks unders, but after my last Knicks under took a loss, their totals have been 180 and 175. Safe to say those were unders.
NY at Golden State - Under 214.5
The Mav's pick was gold.
I watch a lot of Kings games, I guess, due to the region I'm in. I sprinkled a little on the ML and they didn't disappoint for about a half. D. Fox was playing great and then Buddy threw away a pass or two and they just fell apart and the clippers pounded them.
Bold pick though, which admittedly, the degen in me liked.
Lakers +102 at Milwaukee
Starting at 4:35pm PT
Lakers pick won, NY under lost thanks to a 71 point first.
Just one today:
Denver -105 at Phoenix (+1 spread up to -115 ok also)
As of 1/17: 19-22 (-1.14 units)
Since then:
0-1 (-1.00 unit)
1-1 (-0.09 units)
1-1 (+0.02 units)
1-0 (+0.95 units)
Total action since 1/17: 3-3 (-0.12 units)
Grand total: 22-25 (-1.26 units)
*** MONEYLINE ALERT ***
The Detroit Pistons are 3-10, but they're actually better than that, especially recently.
They've played the last 3 games close:
- They lost by 1 yesterday to Houston
- They lost the previous game in OT to Atlanta
- They were up 61-55 against Miami in the game before that, before a bad 3rd sunk them. They still finished within 6.
There is some belief that Griffin may sit today (this hasn't been announced, but it might happen). However, Griffin isn't the same player he once was, and Jerami Grant has taken his role to a large degree. Griffin is averaging just 32 minutes, and losing him isn't nearly the same impact it once was. So while I'd rather see him suit up, this doesn't worry me.
Both the Pistons and the 76ers are playing back-to-back games, but Philly had to travel to Detroit, whereas the Pistons are playing their second consecutive home game.
Detroit +250 vs. Philadelphia
Let's throw in a total to go along with it.
Brookyln hasn't been playing any defense lately. Totals (ignoring OT) in last 4 games: 237, 248, 254, 238
Durant is probable.
Miami at Brooklyn - Over 231 (231.5 ok)
OK, so the Brooklyn over worked out yesterday, and in fact it had a very bizarre finish. Going into the final 68 seconds, the over hadn't hit yet.
The game didn't go into OT, yet COVERED BY 21 POINTS, because 22 points scored in those 68 seconds. Insane.
Detroit hung there with Philly the entire game, and in fact had a 12-point early lead, but ultimately lost by 4. They even had a decent shot at OT, as Philly had the ball up just 2 with 28 seconds left.
Here's my first pick for the day. There may be others.
Boston -6 vs. Cleveland
The Cavs have looked surprisingly good the last few games, but today's going to be the letdown.
In addition to my Boston spread pick, I'm going to throw in an under on the Charlotte game.
Keep in mind I've been weakest at unders this season. But if you're feeling adventurous:
Charlotte at Orlando - Under 214
Aaron Gordon is questionable, as he has some hip issues.
Good calls Dan. I came along on both.
The Hornets under got a little dicey as I thought they were headed to OT.
I love the Celtics and they were due for a rout like that, but taking the points with the Cavs was kinda the en vogue pick. Glad I took your advice.
2-0 day yesterday
*** MONEYLINE ALERT ***
Yes, you have time to place this one.
Chicago +142 vs. Boston
Boston played yesterday and scored 141 points. Kemba Walker is out resting.
The Hornets one freaked me out because it had NO BUSINESS GOING TO OT, yet almost did.
The Hornets had the ball, up 3, with less than 24 seconds left. They got fouled. Should've been over. Instead they missed BOTH free throws and then gave up a 3 to tie it with 8.7 left! AUGGGH!
Fortunately they got a bucket with 0.7 left and iced it.
Glad you came along.
Here's another moneyline, coming sooner (4:05pm PT).
Detroit already burned me once against the 76ers, but this time they don't have to face Embiid, who just always destroys them (and the other day was no exception).
On the down side, Rose is out. However, Blake Griffin is back, which would be better news 10 years ago, but still should be a plus.
Detroit +170 vs. Philadelphia
One more starting soon.
Aaron Gordon BACK
Charlotte had a tremendous comeback yesterday, and edged Orlando. In this back-to-back rematch, the difference is that Gordon has returned, and Orlando will seek to avenge their 4th quarter meltdown.
Orlando -1 vs. Charlotte (-1.5 ok)
Good calls again Dan.
I didn't have the heart to take Pistons on ML as I have a negative history with them but did grab the points earlier when it was rumored that Embiid might sit out.
2-1 yesterday, only losing Chicago. I hit the +170 Detroit game.
Today:
Clips are without Kawhi, Paul George, and Patrick Beverly. Ouch! And Trae Young WILL play today, after being questionable.
I'll take the Hawks at -6.
Also, similarly, Washington is devastated by COVID, with Avdija and Hacimura out with COVID, and Westbrook is limited to 25 minutes.
Atlanta -6 vs. Clippers
Houston -3.5 vs. Washington (-4 ok)
BTW I would have laid off of the Houston pick if Westbrook were playing a full game. I think he's going to play with a vengeance in his return to Houston, but playing only half the game, and missing several players due to COVID, there's only so much he can do.
2-0 again
Now 6-1 since Sunday, up 5.25 units in that time.
PLOPPY WEDNESDAY
NO CREATIVE MONEYLINES
NO COUNTERINTUITIVE UNDERS
NO REVERSE TRAPPER JOHN PICKS
JUST TWO GAMES WHICH LOOK GOOD TO EVERY PLOPPY WHO BETS FAVORITE SPREADS
Milwaukee -7 at Toronto (Siakam questionable)
Brooklyn -6.5 at Atlanta (Capela and Reddish questionable)
You're on a roll Dan.
I played contrarian on the Clips+ yesterday.
Okay, I lied.
There is one counterintuitive under.
Phoenix vs. Oklahoma City - Under 216
1-1-1 yesterday. Phoenix under won, Milwaukee tied, Brooklyn lost (despite making OT and giving me a shot).
Two picks today. One is a ploppy pick, one is not.
Ploppy pick:
Houston -4.5 vs Portland
Portland is a disaster right now, with no Nurkic, McCollum, and Covington. Houston is at full strength with its regulars.
Non-ploppy pick (starting 4:35pm):
LA Clippers at Miami - Under 212
A shitload of major players out. Clippers missing George, Kawhi, Beverly. Miami missing Butler, Dragic, their own Leonard, Igoudala, and others.
Okay, I've been wavering on this one all day, but I've decided to fire.
Phoenix vs. Golden State - Under 219.5 (Booker out)
(Note - Bovada has 220 right now)
1-2 yesterday. Pretty sad, could've been 3-0. Houston blew a 10-point lead and barely squeaked by with a 3 point win. Cilppers somehow put up 40 points in the 3rd after a low scoring first half, and I still only lost that under by 2. The Phoenix under easily covered.
It's not clear if Kawhi Leonard and Paul George had COVID -- but they were out for "COVID protocols", and are now BACK.
You can look at recent Clippers scores and see some fairly low totals -- 208, 207, 214... but the last two were without George and Kawhi. Before that, the Clippers were playing at a fast pace and scoring a shitload of points.
The Magic are perceived by many to be a low-scoring squad, but the total has been 220 or more in 6 of their last 9 contests.
Clippers at Orlando - Over 218
**** MONEYLINE ALERT ****
Washington will face an inconsistent Atlanta Hawks team tongiht. Russell Westbrook will return and presumably play full minutes. In his previous return earlier this week against Houston, he played half the game, didn't play well, and then rested on Wednesday.
Bradley Beal has been great lately, and has recently expressed the desire to be traded to a contender.
Washington is indeed not a good team and has gone 1-6 in their past 7, but Atlanta is coming off an exhausting OT loss against the Nets on Wednesday, and has bounced back and forth between looking like a contender and looking terrible.
Today will be another setback for Atlanta, as Washington will get an elusive W back at home.
Washington +140 vs. Atlanta
*** MONEYLINE ALERT PART DEUX ***
Sacramento will be facing the disappointing Raptors in Tampa.
OG Anunoby is out. Not a huge deal, but thought I'd mention it.
Anyway, Sac will take this one, and continue Toronto's woes.
Sacramento +160 at Toronto
1-2 today but the biggest dog won -- Sacramento held on to barely win, and the +160 turns my 1-2 day into just an 0.4 unit loss.
Miami vs. Sacramento - Under 223 (222.5 ok)
New Orleans -2 vs. Houston
1-1 yesterday. New Orleans fell apart in the 2nd, giving up 48 points, and that was that. Sac under covered.
Two bets on the Washington/Brooklyn game today.
Washington vs. Nets - Under 245.5
Washington +221 vs. Nets
No Harden. This should impact the scoring and the entire flow for the Nets. Don't be worried about the overs you've seen out of Brooklyn recently -- this game will be different. Also, with a line like 245.5, there's a lot of room for error.
Man you lucked out last night druff. Crazy, improbable finish to the wizards nets game.