NY Giants at Tennessee
Half on spread +5.5 -110
Half on moneyline +210
Printable View
NY Giants at Tennessee
Half on spread +5.5 -110
Half on moneyline +210
Got that pick both ways.
This week:
New Orleans +125 moneyline (+2.5 ok) vs Tampa Bay
Atlanta +10.5 at Rams
San Francisco -8.5 vs Seattle
Dallas +7.5 -115 (+7 +100 ok) vs Cincinnati
Kamara out for New Orleans. I no longer endorse that pick, but it's been made, so it will go on my record either way.
Oddly the line has barely moved in favor of Tampa. Admittedly I no longer love my position on the Saints, but what's done is done.
I'm going to take an aggressive approach here and throw a few more picks onto the pile.
Green Bay vs. Chicago - Under 42
New England -3 at Pittsburgh
New England / Pittsburgh - Under 40 -107
That's 7 NFL picks for me, up from just one the previous week.
Lord help me.
5-1-1 yesterday. Only one that lost was the aforementioned Saints picks which I stopped liking due to Kamara not playing.
Nice!
Now I can't resist. Hard to not keep pressing when you're hot in a certain sport.
I've been considering firing on Philadelphia for awhile, but I'm finally doing it. In the meantime, the line touched the -3 mark, which is significant (not in a good way), but I still like it. Wish I hit it earlier today when it was 2.5.
Philadelphia -3 +100 vs. Minnesota (-105 ok)
Won that easily to go 7-1-1 for the young season.
Very nice so far!
Jacksonville +7 at Chargers (bet soon, line probably going to 6.5)
Indianapolis +200 vs Kansas City (+5.5 ok)
Atlanta -103 at Seattle
Washington vs. Philadelphia - Under 47 -105
Arizona vs. Rams - Under 48.5
Adding:
Carolina +115 vs New Orleans
Wow.
6-0 this week, including a +200 and +115
Now 13-1-1 to start the season
Congratulations. Best NFL start I have ever seen, partly because those money lines were spot on. That is really something. Seriously, that is a once in a lifetime out-of-the-NFL gate. Savor it and keep grinding. It's a fantastic accomplishment.
I just realized, somewhere on another forum, Mr. Singer is wincing.
That is an impressive start. Congrats Druff.
And now I will nit pick just a bit. :D Wasn't the name of this thread something like Dan Druff's occasional NFL picks?
15 picks in 3 weeks is more than an occasional pick. It is a third of the games. :D I guess that is why the title change. And as owner, Druff has the ability to do that title change where as us minions wouldn't. :D
But still congrats Druff. I wish I had played along.
Nobody is more surprised by this than me. I thought I'd just make occasional picks. My first week went 1-0. So I tried 8 last week, and went 6-1-1. Then I tried 6 more this week, and went 6-0, including a +200 and +115.
Obviously I had some luck here (a few close ones fell my way, including the Colts +200 today, winning with 24 seconds left), but yeah, this is some start.
It's a fantastic start. Usually when you're plugged in like that early, you have a real good sense of pretty much everything. Honestly, it's a historic start for an NFL season.
To put it in my personal context, the best start I ever had was 17-2-1 about 40 years ago, but that was strictly college. To start like this in the NFL is much more difficult. So congrats. Fabulous job.
My only advice is whatever threshold you're using to decide what is or is not a play, keep using it. If you like one game a particular week, take one game. If you like eight, take eight. If you like none, take none. You don't owe anybody some minimum number of plays.
Giants vs Dallas - Under 38.5
Dan, I'm going to bitch at you now. I'm a shop 'til you drop, guy, and this line was 39 1/2 the majority of the week. It was 39 many places last night and even this morning. It only went to 38 1/2 today and not everywhere.
So you should have, at worst, pushed this play.
I would count this thing as a push, and I'm being reasonable. I wasn't even rooting for you, as I teased the Over, but in fairness, this should have been a push at the worst. I was aware of the lines because, obviously, I had bet a reasonable amount on the game with an Over 32.
I bet it only about an hour before gametime and only saw 38.5 at my books. I was very annoyed by two things -- both the 6-3 first half failing to stay under, and losing by 0.5.
I'll still count it as a loss... albeit a painful one.
I just hate to see an ongoing masterpiece nicked by an LL (Laziness Loss). You are falling on your sword, and you deserved a better fate on this game.
I already took one bad timing loss myself this year (it should have been a push), and I hate it. That's why they pay me the big money -- LOL -- to not muck things up.
And I was not exaggerating. This game was a 39 1/2 all week, basically.
Short notice, but...
Cincinnati -4 vs Miami
Well done. Keep rolling, baby. I needed them myself.
Here's another note on shopping. I teased the Over last night, and had I waited until within eight hours of the game, it's a push (which cancels the wager). But because I saw the line moving, I plugged it in at Over 41 1/2, which made all the difference. People, you've gotta keep on top of the numbers. Not always crucial in the NFL, but it is critical in college football.
Here's an early NFL pick:
Atlanta +100 vs. Cleveland
Good job with the over, redietz.
Indianapolis vs. Tennessee - Under 43
Thank you.
Cleveland down 23-20, going for at least a FG, throws an interception. 23-20 Falcons final, I win.
Colts under looks dead. 24-17 in the 3rd with 7+ min left in quarter. Zeroes for rest of third, but still need a complete zero 4th. Colts make baffling decisions to kick it with 2 min left, down 7, and miss FG. Final score 24-17.
Amazing. Definitely been lucky here in my now 16-2-1 start in NFL (or 16-1-2 if we count it your way).
You've been hot as a pistol Dan!
Congrats and Nicely Done.
I hope your streaks have translated into thousands of dollars and not just a couple of hundos.
And you forgot to mention that you had a monster streak in the MLB recently as well.
Thanks for putting out these picks for us to see before game time.
Appreciated.
I've been teetering on the brink for awhile about this Monday Night Football pick, but I'm finally doing it.
San Francisco -2 vs Rams
Good luck, Dan.
I literally hate both these offenses, well, I hate the offensive play calling. In forced-choice contests, I took SF and the Over. God, I hate taking Overs with these squads, but that's what I have. I really, really hate the play design and play calling. Did I mention that?
Here's a brief cautionary tale from my youth. As I mentioned previously, I had a 17-2-1 start way back when in college football. I was shown (not live) on a show called the Satellite Cable Handicap out of Buffalo. About 50 handicappers were competing and having their records monitored by the show. So I got off to that start and signed up a bunch of people for my sports service. All college football.
Well, I came back to earth and wound up 45-35 or something like that for the season. What I learned from that experience was that I felt terrible after the season, but that my psychological reaction, although understandable, was wrong. The 45-35 was a good solid season. I should have been happy to take it anytime. Instead, I was miserable.
Now what you've done is better. First of all, I have you 17-1-2. Second, it's the NFL, which is more difficult. Whatever you're doing in terms of your threshold to pull the trigger, just keep doing it. It's a fantastic accomplishment.
Indy at Denver - Under 42
I probably won't have a lot of picks for this Sunday, but take a gander at the Seahawks/Saints situation.
The 1-3 Saints are almost 0-4 this year (they squeaked by the Falcons by 1 point in the season opener), and are one of the NFL's bigger disappointments thus far. QB Jameis Winston is almost certain to miss the game again this week, and while Andy Dalton did a decent job during last week's loss to Minnesota, I can easily see the Saints losing this one outright.
I'm doing Seattle moneyline bet. They might not score 48 like last week, but I think they might take it.
Also doing Browns moneyline. I've thought from the start of the season that the Chargers were overrated, and indeed their only 2 wins have come against the not-so-good Raiders and awful Texans. (To be fair, the Browns competition hasn't been particularly good thus far, either.)
A lot of ploppies are going to fire on the Chargers here, because they are perceived to be the far superior team, and the line is only -2 for LA right now. Looks like a trap to me. Browns have looked better than expected overall, given that they were left for dead by many after Deshaun Watson's suspension.
Cleveland +110 vs Chargers (+2 ok)
Seattle +190 vs New Orleans (+5 ok)
Lost two games which were close very late. Oh well. My 18-2-1 start becomes 18-4-1.
Today:
Washington vs. Chicago - Under 38
Nice win. And never a doubt. I still have your start at 19-3-2. Extraordinary.
The Cleveland loss Sunday was bizarre. I don't care what analytics say for that Chargers game. Chargers should have punted.
Analytics are generalized; they aren't tailored specifically for team vs. team or specific context (like seven point NFL fave in a particular situation). They aren't the equivalent of a baseball pitcher versus a specific hitter, which is all that matters, really.
Atlanta +185 vs San Francisco
Seattle +120 vs. Arizona
Miami vs Minnesota - Under 45.5
Philadelphia vs Dallas - Under 42
Another monster day. That was a helluva Atlanta moneyline. They played great, and SF has issues with the secondary injuries.
Denver +185 at Chargers (+4 ok)
Hopefully another helluva moneyline
I've been competing in various NFL no-spread contests for years, where you must pick winners of each game. Picking outright winners in the NFL is a highly underrated skill and quite useful in terms of gambling.
I'm always looking for an opportunity to take a dog I think can move me up a slot. Even though I loved him as a QB in college, I think the Arizona coach is done and has messed up the franchise in a way that will be difficult to repair. They have sold their soul to an offense and a QB that are basically a college offense and a college QB. And both the coach and QB are big checks, so tough to fix. Defensive coordinators solved the offense and the QB after a little more than a season, plus Arizona dumped some of their best receivers. As with most things in the NFL, they are discovering it ain't the system that made it work; it's the players.
My point is that even though I think Arizona is done for the season, I did not have the cajones to go against them with underdog Seattle. Seattle has been pretty consistent and played reasonably well, but I couldn't pull the trigger. So I salute you for taking Seattle.
I got killed picking NFL sans spreads this week, but I may have gotten killed a little less than most people, so I am looking forward to the standings tomorrow.
Horrible ending to that awful Denvder game, with the Chargers winning in OT thanks to a dropped punt return. Brutal.
Not sure if I will have a pick tomorrow.
I almost teased the Over of that horror based on "How bad can that Denver offense really be?" Fortunately, I talked myself out of it. I have certain formal stat angles I use, and it was not quite a play. Wilson is hurt -- you can tell not so much by his passing as by his decisions to not risk contact on plays where he would have risked contact any other season. He's making early contact-avoidance decisions is what I'm saying.
I'm almost licking my chops for next season's futures based on how many teams have suffered significant long-term injuries to key players this season already. Some teams will look much, much different if these players show up hale and hearty next year. I'm shopping for some this-season futures today. I think I found myself the best team (other than Buffalo), and it's a sleeper.
You're a patient man, redietz. I can't bring myself to bet futures. I like the action and the quick conclusion of my bets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMyCa35_mOg
Here's my NFL wagers for this lovely Sunday.
Seattle +195 at Chargers
Jacksonville -3 -120 vs Giants
Carolina vs Tampa Bay - Under 39
Denver vs Jets - Under 37
The Jets/Denver has potential to be among the all-time ugly-fests, but I am waiting until the number hits the nadir to tease the Over. So we'll see how much nausea I can handle for that wager.
Well, I did fill the second half of an open teaser with Over 29 1/2. Then hedged half of it with Under 19 at halftime because it's as ugly as advertised. I'm going to take a half unit loss on this mess, I think.
Chargers are so overrated, and I'm going to keep fading them. Seattle blew most of their early lead after losing Metcalf in the late 1st, but are still holding on 24-14 in the mid-3rd at the moment. Chargers strength of schedule has been a joke thus far.
Seattle was looking like a team to keep backing, but if Metcalf is out significant time, this could change things.
Tampa under hit. Brady is really looking bad this season. Jacksonville was up 4 in the late 4th, but couldn't hold back the Giants, who have been too good this year. Weird line in the first place with NY being the dog. The ploppies feel really smart right now having bet the Giants.
If the under with Denver/Jets holds, and Seattle doesn't blow the game-long lead, this will end up a good day.
Monet and I exchanged a few comments regarding how to go anti-Brady earlier this season. The three QBs with the best lifetime ATS records heading into this season were Brady, Rodgers, and Wilson, which made them all un-takeable to me. No value.
Jacksonville really butchered that game. Up four with fourth-and-one and six minutes left at the Giant 20, they elect to go for it. This is the NFL, guys. That was poor. Something Urban would have done. That game really hurt me in various no spread contests. There are legions of Giants backers and losing a game like that can cost you a hundred slots.
Chargers offensive line is shot to hell. No easy fix for that.
Another real good day, Dan. Congrats.
Don't be shy about posting that overall NFL record. It's extraordinary.
The JVille game, as I bitched about previously, had the JVille coaching staff up four and facing fourth-and-one at the NYG 20 with about six minutes left. They went for it.
I don't care what overall analytics say. You are in a 17-13 game. Points and yards are hard in this game. Take the FG.
Record in NFL, first 7 weeks:
Week 1:
1-0, +1.51 units
Week 2:
6-1-1, +4.53 units
Week 3:
6-1, +5.89 units
Week 4:
4-0, +3.73 units
Week 5:
1-2, -1.09 units
Week 6:
4-2, +2.87 units
Week 7:
3-1, +2.77 units
Total through 7 weeks: 25-7-1, +20.21 units
A start for the ages.
At my peak, I was 18-2-1, +16.57 units.
However, I have still gone 7-5, +3.64 units since then, so it's not like I'm slumping.
Also notable is that, of the 7 losses, six of them were either leading at some point in the 4th quarter or I lost by 0.5-1 points (or both). Out of 33 picks so far, I've only had one bad one (Saints in week 2), but that was made before a key injury. So if you take out that one (because of the unexpected injury after making the pick), all 32 picks either won or were close.
I don't think I'll ever be able to duplicate this.
Arizona +165 at Minnesota
Houston -110 vs Tennessee
Washington at Indianapolis - Under 39.5
Green Bay at Buffalo - Under 47
Dan has had a spectacular opening seven weeks. I guess we'll find out if Willis is ready for the big time today. The Arizona line may be value-boosted because they have an 0-9 straight up run in Minnesota and 0-4 or 0-5 ATS vs. Vikings going into the game.
It makes me sick to have had to take a side in Tennessee at Houston. No idea what to expect.
After a quarter, it looks as if this Titans game will give the Bronco/Colt 12-9-fest a run for its money. Going blind.
I was at such a loss to pick a winner, I took one side in the Northbet contest and the other side in Topbet. I couldn't put money on this thing if it was monet's.
I am reminded of the old Castaways Contest in Las Vegas, where you had to pick an ATS winner in every game. It was the forerunner of the SuperBook Contest. Tough to know you have serious consequences riding on these matchups.
Lost both moneylines, won both totals last week. Arizona was briefly ahead, but fell apart. Houston is just awful.
No opinion on the game tonight.
Current record: 27-9-1, +20.03 units
Got 4 picks today.
Washington +150 vs Minnesota
Buffalo at Jets - Under 45.5
Tennessee at Kansas City - Under 45.5
Rams at Tampa - Under 42.5 -107
Almost went 4-0. The Redskins, up 17-7 in the 4th, just played horribly the rest of the way, and fell 20-17 in the final seconds.
The three unders covered. Went 3-1, +1.75 units
I'm now 30-10-1, +21.78 units
While I am mixed on who will win this contest, I also think it will be an ugly contest with a low-ish score.
Baltimore at New Orleans - Under 46
Winner.
Now 31-10-1, +22.69 units
Thanks.
Betanysports took notice. They dropped my limits by 90%.
I've stayed away from any picks I felt were marginal. That's why sometimes I make no picks on the Monday and Thursday night games.
Even though I'm not as hot as I was with the 18-2-1 start, I've still been a respectable 13-8 since then, and in fact I've been 13-6 in my last 19.
And I have you half a game better than you list.
BetANy knocked you back, eh?
One way to muddy the waters, obviously, is to ... oh hell, if I ever see you in person, I will pass it along.
I have been banned on occasion, then months or a year later asked to re-engage. Experienced management eventually realizes that piggybacking beats banning.
But some people have no tolerance for futures winners. Seriously. I have been scaled back in the last five years to the point of ridiculousness at some places. And the amounts haven't been staggering. If these were straight plays winning the same amounts, there'd be little eye-batting. But because they are out-of-the-blue long shots, like this year's Indians (errr, Guardians), I get grief.
I can't get used to calling them the Guardians. I also still refer to the "Commanders" (lol) as the Redskins.
Yes, I've had my props cut on all online books a long time ago. But to get restricted for straight betting spreads/moneylines/totals on mainstream games is just taking risk aversion to a new level.
Cleveland +156 at Miami (+3.5 ok)
Pittsburgh -102 vs New Orleans
Detroit at Chicago - Over 48.5
Chargers at San Francisco - Under 45 -107
Monday pick:
Philadelphia vs Washington - Under 43.5
Arizona at Rams - Under 39.5 (possible both starting QBs will be out!)
Pittsburgh vs New Orleans - Under 39.5
4-2 day. Should have won the Arizona under. Was 3-3 late in the 2nd (!!). Lost in the final 14 seconds when the Rams made a junk TD, down 17-10. A fumble was responsible for one of the late TDs in the 1st half.
Lost the Cleveland pick pretty big, to where the dog spread also would've lost by a lot.
Other four won, though the Chargers under was looking not-so-great at halftime. Added another +1.73 units to my record.
Now 35-12-1, +24.42 units
Only have this one for you guys right now:
Pittsburgh +170 vs Cincinnati (+4 ok)
Adding:
Dallas -2 at Minnesota
NY Giants vs Detroit - Under 44.5 -105
Denver vs Las Vegas - Under 41.5
Went 2-2 last week, winning Dallas game and Denver under. Now 37-14-1, +24.24 units
Today:
Jacksonville vs Baltimore - Under 43
I really don't see much else that I like today in NFL.
There's no law that says you have to like anything. Kudos to a fantastic NFL season.
Meanwhile, it behooves me as an honest reporter to mention that the inimitable Rob Singer is on an NFL tear, as can be evidenced over at GamblingForums, where's he locked into taking five NFL sides per week. His record has entered Dan's rarified air, believe it or not.
On a side note (not that I do much in the NFL), Dan and I are at slight loggerheads on the JVille game, although not directly. I teased the Over 36. We'll see how it goes. I'm a sucker for those Over 36 teasers.
In various contests, I am spinning my wheels trying to pick winners for Denver at Carolina and Cincinnati at Tennessee. For the first time this season, I more or less gave up and used different lineups. I used two road teams in two contests and two home teams in the other. I have no blessed idea. I actually hope it's one home, one road.
Red, how much do you have to lay to buy the total down to 36?
It's a teaser, Danny. Teaser odds vary a lot by sportsbook. There are six, six-and-a-half, and seven point teasers. You need two teams to win with the extra points to win the wager.
I have three places where I lay -130 for the seven point NFL teasers, which cost more than college teasers.
The majority of my teasing is with totals. For decades, Las Vegas sports books did not allow teasers for totals. There were reasons for that.
Today, I closed a Vols -7 from last night versus Vanderbilt with the Ravens/JVille Over 36. Then I messed up by hedging a third of the bet on Under 21 1/2 the second half. On the other hand, I had a Titans +9 teaser going today, and I hedged a third of the bet with Bengals Pick second half and won the hedge and the teaser.
I understand.
I thought you were just buying the number down and calling it a teaser.
Once I kidded you about a teaser you played, (due to your disdain for parlays) and you said a teaser is not a parlay. But if you need two teams to win isn't that a parlay?
Not trying to one up you or anything. Probably just semantics.
I do think playing parlays is terrible unless you can open them in perpetuity. The problem with playing teasers and parlays is that unless you can open them in perpetuity, you can't necessarily take advantage of when a particular place has the best number, so you risk playing non-optimal numbers, which will catch up to you. Previously, I had three places that allowed open teasers in perpetuity. This season, one of those has reduced your time to fill it up to seven days. A second has reduced it to 30 days. The third still allows open in perpetuity, and in fact I have open teasers that date back to last year there. But the bottom line is that flexibility to use teasers has quickly gotten worse. This hints that teasers, in specific instances, may have been not the most profitable option for sports books.
Now people ask me why I've used so many teasers this season in the NFL. I'll use this as a trivia test. If you think about this season, as opposed to other seasons, for a minute or two, you can probably figure out why it MIGHT be smart idea to use some NFL teasers in 2022.
I will present the unabashed answer on Tuesday to give folks a day or so to mull it over. There is a specific logical reason, actually mathematical in nature, why this season suggests an emphasis on teasers might be a good idea. Mickey probably can figure it out after I stated things this way.
It's one of those things that after I tell you, you'll say, "Oh, that's obvious." But the fact is nobody is saying it, and you have to look at things in a certain way to see what's right in front of you.
Finally betting a Thursday game again.
New England +167 vs Buffalo (+3.5 ok)
Don't feel bad. I teased the Over 36 that I'm a sucker for. Still hard to believe I lost that. Caught the number at exactly the right time, too, back when the weather reports were saying a chance of 40 mph gusts. No wind at all, really.
That was one ugly Patriot offensive performance. I give the NE RB credit -- he's the closest thing to a current Walter Payton -- he's busting it every play. But he did drop two balls.
This isn't news to anyone, but Pats need a QB and two more wideouts. Mac Jones is not the answer to any question. He's smart and he's tough but he'll make a fine backup.
Well my night was worse than that. I loved the under 43.5 when I looked earlier in the week. I thought the Patriots would try to shorten the game by taking time off. Then last night, I checked the weather which said windy conditions with gusts up to 35 mph. I sort of thought both teams would run the ball and take time off. So I made a bigger wager than usual.
Well I don't know what happened to the wind. I saw no sign of it. By the second half I like the way the game was going. After the game when I didn't get paid, I checked the log of my bets and apparently, I bet the over. :( I have done this before, but it was with tickets at a brick and mortar sportsbook that I didn't check. This was the first time online. Got me thinking if it was more or less likely to make this kind of mistake when betting online. :confused:
After all that professional bullshit you have been typing for the last 5 years or so, that I have read, you can go and Fuck Off with this ploppie bullshit you are trying to make us believe in now.
Didn't check your tickets?
Clicked the wrong bet?
Made this mistake multiple times over the years?
FUCK OFF!
You can count two tables without a hitch but can't figure out how to bet the over/under in the book?
FUCK YOU!
My last win was November 20. Of course, I've only made 2 picks since then, which both lost, so I still have a great record for the season.
New England was outplayed big time. Knew by the 2nd quarter that it wasn't winning, even though they weren't way behind at the time.
Now 37-16-1, +22.24 units
NY Giants vs Washington - Under 40.5
Las Vegas vs LA Chargers - Under 49.5
Las Vegas -2.5 vs LA Chargers