Mickey (I can’t do AP-grade Math) Crimm; MC says answer is 2.4%

Tweet is here: https://mobile.twitter.com/redrockca...45554718416906

$1.25 wager wins $150K+ Sequential RF (“SRF”).

Mickey Crimm proceeds to do the math:
Tweets start here: https://mobile.twitter.com/mickeycri...96743599824896

“Fundamental of Sequential Royal play. 120 ways five royal cards can appear in the window, 5X4X3X2X1=120. First card can be any of five, second card can be any of 4 remaining, 3rd card can bet any of 3 remaining, etc.” - MC

“ 6/5 Bonus Poker is a 96.87% game. Royal odds are 40,236. Sequential odds are 120 X 40,236 = 4,828,320. Reversible Sequential is half that, 2,414,160. A $150,000 one-way sequential adds 2.4%, reversible adds 4.8%. So either 99.27% or 101.67%.” - MC

It took me less than 2 minutes to spot MC’s mistake. In plain English MC does not understand convexity. This is another attempt by MC trying to do “Advantage Play” math but gets it wrong.

To be clear: Mickey (I can’t do AP-grade Math) Crimm claims 2.4% for 1-WAY $150K SRF in the Red Rock Casino example. MC clearly used $150K (floored) in his analysis.

The correct answer requires an VP analyzer that can handle SRF. I don’t code but I can write algorithms so I used a trick that someone posted on Skip Hughes’ VP forum from 20 years ago. The trick involves Newtonian approximation so I will not disclose how I got my answer.

Me: The 1-WAY $150K SRF adds roughly 3% (rounded).

The difference is roughly 60 basis points so MC’s margin of error would be roughly 60 / 240 or 25%. A roughly 25% margin of error is huge in the world of true Advantage Players!

The fastest way to spot MC’s mistake is to use functions:

Y(1) = Beta1*(RF) + Beta2*(SF) + Beta3*(Quads) * Beta4*(FH) + Beta5*(FL) + Beta6*(ST) + Beta7*(Trips) + Beta8*(2 Pair) + Beta9*(Hi Pair)

Y(2) = BetaSRF*(SRF) * BetaRF*(RF) + Beta2*(SF) + Beta3*(Quads) * Beta4*(FH) + Beta5*(FL) + Beta6*(ST) + Beta7*(Trips) + Beta8*(2 Pair) + Beta9*(Hi Pair)

Notice BetaSRF DOES NOT EQUAL (“DNE”) BetaRF and BetaSRF DNE Beta1.

Mickey (can’t handle functions) Crimm equates BetaSRF = BetaRF = Beta1

In these multivariate regressions (aka functions), there are no Betahats (these are Beta’s), these are zero-intercept regressions, and there is no error term. The function produces an exact answer using the Max EV industry convention.

If you want to be an a true AP, not a scavenger disguising as an AP-wannabe, you have to be able to perform math at the AP level. MC’s margin of error is roughly 25%, so this is not even close.

I will leave it up to others to verify the “correct” answer is closer to my roughly 3% number than MC’s 2.4%, respectively.

Btw, you know I am correct because Y(1) is 96.8687% to 4 digits after the decimals point per WinPoker app.

You poor sad man. LOLOLOL!!!!! at your assclown antics. Here you are again making a fool of yourself. You don't have an honest bone in your body, Nerftard-AP. You didn't solve anything. All you gave is what you think might be the correct answer. You sais "I'll leave it up to others to verify the correct answer is closer to my roughly 3% number than MC's 2.4% number." You obfuscated with that statement because YOU DON'T KNOW THE CORRECT ANSWER. IF YOU DID YOU WOULD HAVE PUT IT UP TO RUB MY NOSE IN IT. You just continue to like making an idiot out of yourself, nertard-AP.

It is a single line five-coin quarter game and the number is $150,000. So we convert the 150K to bets/units.

150,000/1.25 = 120,000

The royal odds are 40,236 X 120 = 4,828,320

120,000/4,828,320 = 2.4853%

I used a rounded number on twitter, 2.4%. But it looks like I rounded down instead of up. That was a mistake. But, unlike you, I'm man enough to admit a mistake.

But here is what is so FUNNY!!! For months you have been looking for anything and everything I post up for mistakes so you can denigrate me. So here I made it easy for you. I was off by almost a tenth of a percent. AND YOU DIDN'T CATCH IT!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!

YOU DUMB SON OF A BITCH!!!

Now, for some more of your dishonesty, nerftard-AP. I posted up that the odds of the sequential could be improved on with a strategy shift. Improved odds means a higher return to player. In other words that 2.4853% add-on can be improved on by appropriate strategy shifts. I pointed out that the main strategy shift was playing the 3-card royals over the high pairs when the royal cards were in sequential position. YOU, NERFTARD-AP, CONVENIENTLY FORGOT TO POINT THAT OUT HERE. That's because you are not interested in legitimate discourse. You are only interested in playing little kid gotcha games. So you go the dishonest route.

If I were to go over all the strategy shifts for the add-ons the number would most like be up around 3%. But I'm not going to waste my time doing all that for nothing.

I put up the 2.4% to show my followers how it's done. Then I explained the strategy shift that improves the odds to them. What did you do, nerftard-ap? Nothing. YOU COULDN'T GIVE THE EXACT ANSWER HERE THEN YOU DENIGRATE SOMEONE ELSE FOR "NOT GIVE THE EXACT ANSWER."

Nerftard-AP....you're a loser.

credit:Frugal Video Poker Software

EXAP desperate attention. He bang Nathan power couple.

Nerftard-AP is a cowardly drive-by shooter. He never debates here. There is never any discourse with him. He just hits and runs. A born coward.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

credit:Frugal Video Poker Software

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Tableplay, the payoff for the Sequential should be $150,000 or 120,000 for 1.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by tableplay

credit:Frugal Video Poker Software

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Tableplay, the payoff for the Sequential should be $150,000 or 120,000 for 1.

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$150k is 600,000 quarters

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by tableplay

credit:Frugal Video Poker Software

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Tableplay, the payoff for the Sequential should be $150,000 or 120,000 for 1.

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$150k is 600,000 quarters

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Okay, thanks. Now, next question. Is this for a 1-way sequential or a reversible?

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Originally Posted by tableplay

credit:Frugal Video Poker Software

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I can't find anything about sequential royals on my Frugal Video Poker. Where's it at, tableplay?

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by tableplay

credit:Frugal Video Poker Software

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I can't find anything about sequential royals on my Frugal Video Poker. Where's it at, tableplay?

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Hi Mickey it is under the change pay off tables menu. Please refer to the screenshot graphic below.
Best, TP.

Thanks, I didn't know that feature was on Frugal. I didn't know the strategy shift would improve the odds by a third. Pretty neat.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Thanks, I didn't know that feature was on Frugal. I didn't know the strategy shift would improve the odds by a third. Pretty neat.

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No problem, anytime Mickey. Same with me regarding the strategy shift. Too bad Wolf Video Poker, its successor, is no longer supported - as great as FVP is (as you know), Wolf VP is even more powerful as you also know. I have no skin in the game, as I would never go after something with a cycle of ~1.5M. Imagine investing all that time only to have someone else get it when you went home to rest. I'm sure there are teams that go after these, but as a lone wolf forget it.

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Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday

EXAP desperate attention. He bang Nathan power couple.

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Why did you bring me up in a Thread where the OP had NOTHING to do with me?

800-1000 hands per hour on $.25 VP at 103.95% (tablepay) on a 1500 hour cycle. Whose email list sends out these prime opportunities to double or triple up?

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Originally Posted by 13BucksanHourAP

800-1000 hands per hour on $.25 VP at 103.95% (tablepay) on a 1500 hour cycle. Whose email list sends out these prime opportunities to double or triple up?

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At 16 hours a day and no breaks that's just 94 days roughly. Pay off the slot attendants real well so they will hold the game for you during those breaks, otherwise someone else might clip it. Or get locked out by a team. If you are on a team, you'll be splitting it. Note that most of the time you'll be playing 6/5 bonus poker (with strategy deviations - don't fuck up and hopefully your team mates know the strategy perfectly too if you're on a team;the strategy could likely be dynamic as the pot grows, but I haven't studied this since I am not going to jump on this type of play), until the big one hits. As I'm sure you know, the higher the variance, the more likely an outlier number of cycles can occur (like 3 cycles or more), and of course this game has extremely high variance. The cycle is just the average as you know. It's clear that people have and will make money on these and there will be free play/comps to go along with all that coin-in. Anyhow, I'll let someone else have the fun making the big bucks as I wrote above. Personally I think people are probably better off loitering around for the glowing pots on Fu Dai Lian Lian.
Good luck if you decide to pursue sequential royals.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

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Originally Posted by 13BucksanHourAP

800-1000 hands per hour on $.25 VP at 103.95% (tablepay) on a 1500 hour cycle. Whose email list sends out these prime opportunities to double or triple up?

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At 16 hours a day and no breaks that's just 94 days roughly. Pay off the slot attendants real well so they will hold the game for you during those breaks, otherwise someone else might clip it. Or get locked out by a team. If you are on a team, you'll be splitting it. Note that most of the time you'll be playing 6/5 bonus poker (with strategy deviations - don't fuck up and hopefully your team mates know the strategy perfectly too if you're on a team;the strategy could likely be dynamic as the pot grows, but I haven't studied this since I am not going to jump on this type of play), until the big one hits. As I'm sure you know, the higher the variance, the more likely an outlier number of cycles can occur (like 3 cycles or more), and of course this game has extremely high variance. The cycle is just the average as you know. It's clear that people have and will make money on these and there will be free play/comps to go along with all that coin-in. Anyhow, I'll let someone else have the fun making the big bucks as I wrote above. Personally I think people are probably better off loitering around for the glowing pots on Fu Dai Lian Lian.
Good luck if you decide to pursue sequential royals.

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I took a look at the strategy. There are some really painful breakpoints. The 2-card royals in position play over the high pairs. That's costly until you come up with a sequential.

Drawing three cards to the 2-card royal, the freq. of a royal is 16,215. The three royals cards can come in six different orders so the freq. of coming up with the sequential on this draw is 97,290.

You would be taking a 4% drop until you get the sequential, and that's with the regular royals calculated into it.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by tableplay

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Originally Posted by 13BucksanHourAP

800-1000 hands per hour on $.25 VP at 103.95% (tablepay) on a 1500 hour cycle. Whose email list sends out these prime opportunities to double or triple up?

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At 16 hours a day and no breaks that's just 94 days roughly. Pay off the slot attendants real well so they will hold the game for you during those breaks, otherwise someone else might clip it. Or get locked out by a team. If you are on a team, you'll be splitting it. Note that most of the time you'll be playing 6/5 bonus poker (with strategy deviations - don't fuck up and hopefully your team mates know the strategy perfectly too if you're on a team;the strategy could likely be dynamic as the pot grows, but I haven't studied this since I am not going to jump on this type of play), until the big one hits. As I'm sure you know, the higher the variance, the more likely an outlier number of cycles can occur (like 3 cycles or more), and of course this game has extremely high variance. The cycle is just the average as you know. It's clear that people have and will make money on these and there will be free play/comps to go along with all that coin-in. Anyhow, I'll let someone else have the fun making the big bucks as I wrote above. Personally I think people are probably better off loitering around for the glowing pots on Fu Dai Lian Lian.
Good luck if you decide to pursue sequential royals.

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I took a look at the strategy. There are some really painful breakpoints. The 2-card royals in position play over the high pairs. That's costly until you come up with a sequential.

Drawing three cards to the 2-card royal, the freq. of a royal is 16,215. The three royals cards can come in six different orders so the freq. of coming up with the sequential on this draw is 97,290.

You would be taking a 4% drop until you get the sequential, and that's with the regular royals calculated into it.

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Great point Mickey. Here's a heartbreaker (pun intended). Toss the eight and the nine - LMFAO.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

Here's a heartbreaker (pun intended). Toss the eight and the nine - LMFAO.

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If this sort of hand bothers a player they do not have to throw it away.
You can change your strategy in these rare instances and keep the hand.
It won't take very much off your total return and you will still come out positive.
This kind of thing reminds me of when I would play 50 cent FPDW at the Skyline.
I would tip 5 dollars on every hand pay of deuces and 20 dollars on every Royal.
If you run the numbers and take the coins off of the Deuces and Royal, it barely changes your expected return.
Some nits get bothered by tipping like this but that small amount comes back.
It wasn't hard to get a free meal or two every day over there and they had enough drawings to give you your tip money back.
They also made mistakes and ran promotions which put many of us 10k to 30k ahead.
Nothing wrong with greasing the wheels.

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Originally Posted by monet

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Originally Posted by tableplay

Here's a heartbreaker (pun intended). Toss the eight and the nine - LMFAO.

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If this sort of hand bothers a player they do not have to throw it away.
You can change your strategy in these rare instances and keep the hand.
It won't take very much off your total return and you will still come out positive.
This kind of thing reminds me of when I would play 50 cent FPDW at the Skyline.
I would tip 5 dollars on every hand pay of deuces and 20 dollars on every Royal.
If you run the numbers and take the coins off of the Deuces and Royal, it barely changes your expected return.
Some nits get bothered by tipping like this but that small amount comes back.
It wasn't hard to get a free meal or two every day over there and they had enough drawings to give you your tip money back.
They also made mistakes and ran promotions which put many of us 10k to 30k ahead.
Nothing wrong with greasing the wheels.

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Yup, good points.