Originally Posted by
Moses
I've been trying to drag this thread back to a theoretical discussion, but you guys kept throwing practical or useful suggestions.
Every wise counter knows the benefit to always stand on 16 vs 10 when there's potential heat.
I simply would like to know if standing at RC 1, on average, is mathematically better than standing at TC 0. Anyway, I seem to get the answer.
San Jose Bella writes ^:
Moses replies: You're not going to get a straight answer to your question. In order to get your answer you will have to do a formula on a spreadsheet based on the results from CV Data. I can tell you that in a no surrender, straight up pitch game that standing at RC 1 is mathematically better than standing at RC O. However, it is a threshold (or a crap shoot) until to get hitting at RC -2. As for trying to compare on RC 1 to a TC 0? Wow, what is wrong with you? Impossible!
Consider, in a 52 card deck, there are 32 cards that will break your hand. Only 16 will improve it to 18 or better. So 67% break and only 33% improve your position. Now, in a straight up game, quite often the last card of your current hand is the first card of your next hand. That being said, it's rarely worth taking an Ace out of the deck to improve from a 16 to 17. However, starting a hand with an Ace is a great value.
These who say Always Stand on 16 in a pitch game are suffering from HIA syndrome. In a negative deck, perhaps you don't win the hand. But consider you took a negative card out of the card which improved your position on your next hand. A 6 for instance, gives you 22 at a negative RC -3. Bam, you lose. But at least you're not starting your next hand with a 6. Or a 3 gets you to 19. Dealer has 20. Bam you lose. But at least you're not starting your next hand with a 3.
Personally, I do not believe the pit boss or EITS is standing around waiting to see what I do on 16. It occurs maybe 3 times out of a 100 hands. However, if you are that twitchy about heat, let the dealer make the call at RC 1 to RC-1. It won't make one iota of difference until you've played a million hands (10 years for KJ). Even then, it's a threshold that could go either way.