Quote:
Originally Posted by
redietz
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mickeycrimm
In Montana, for the past couple weeks we had been averaging 1 positive for every 430 coronavirus tests. Thats less than a quarter percent. But for the past few days we have a string of 2,857 tests without a single positive.
Redietz, Montana peaked in early April averaging 16 new cases per day. Since reopening on April 24, we have been averaging just 1.17 new cases per day. And that is with the number of tests per day doubling since mid April.
Your prediction of the peak being in June or July is not going to happen.
It's June 30, and everything has played out exactly as it figured to play out.
What's interesting is that I PM'ed mickey this way back when as I was concerned because he is highly vulnerable. So he decided to post this from the PM, without asking me did I care, as an example of something I'd gotten wrong.
I was waiting for mickey to mention that maybe I was right about Montana. But that kind of thing seems to be beyond him these days.
Mickey, I'm having a hard time reconciling your post above, where you don't mention fatalities at all, with your new decision that all that matters is number of deaths. Can you help me and point out where you mention fatalities in the post above? Maybe it's a reading comprehension issue on my part. If your post was about cases of coronavirus in Montana, and my PM to you was about cases of coronavirus in Montana, how did both suddenly become about fatalities in Montana? It would seem to me, with "cases" and "deaths" being two different words, that they mean different things. And since you don't mention "cases" in your post, how did your post become about "deaths?"
Not sure. But if you explain it to me, I'll listen real hard.
Second, regarding the sports handicapping, nobody makes any decisions for me and nobody ever has, but good try, buddy. You completely misinterpreted what I said because you are on a confirmation bias addiction run. You thought I was ceasing the gambling because magazines are not being published or sites are down? C'mon, dude. I don't advertise. I must have said that ad nauseum. The sports sites are up and running, the contests will be active, the magazines are being published. Some come out July 20, in fact, on a month delay. I decided to not do certain things because it's the correct strategy -- from a professional gambling standpoint.
And finally, you realize you've painted yourself into another corner, right? Now your schtick is that death rates are down. Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but most viruses become less lethal over time. It's generally not a good spread strategy to kill your hosts real fast. And the most physically fragile and most vulnerable to contagion die first, so by definition death rates should go down. And health professionals figure out what works and what doesn't. So death rates should go down, and should go down significantly. These are three established ways death rates should decrease.
However, because death rates trail infection rates by a good month, Montana's fatalities should peak in August. See, if the caseload peaks in June/July (as I predicted), then mid to late August should see the deaths go up.
Thus, a month from now, mickey will be explaining how it's not so bad even though Montana has record deaths because the death rate is actually lower than April per infection. LOL.