Craps players, this makes me sick.

Again, I heard about another craps player who got wiped out playing craps "the smart way."

What is the smart way? Well, according to the "smart guys" the "smart way" is to make pass and come bets with maximum odds to reduce the "house edge" to the smallest percentage. That, they say, is the "smart way." It's the math at work.

And today, I heard about another player who lost his entire gambling bankroll doing just that -- and he says he lost a five-figure amount in just three months playing "the smart way."

He said he always made the table minimum "flat bet" with max odds which is what "the books" say to do. But it didn't work. The dice went against him, and despite all of his betting over three months -- more than 30 hours at the tables -- the smart way bets were all wiped out and he is busted.

I am sorry this happened to him and this kind of thinking is something I have tried to argue and fight for more than 15 years on various craps discussion forums. And I was severely criticized for my thinking -- but once again had someone followed my thinking they would have been spared a tragic loss.

For years everyone proclaims there is "no house advantage" on the odds bets. But they overlook that there is "no player advantage" either.

For years everyone proclaims that max odds reduces the house edge -- but they fail to mention it never eliminates the house edge.

And what is probably the biggest problem with putting so much money on pass and come bets is that in order for the big payoff to hit, the number must be repeated and statistics show that the average craps shooter only throws the dice about five times per turn -- and that means one, two or more come bets with full odds can be left on the table when the player "sevens out."

I recall a few months ago when a friend of mine ran to The Riviera on The Strip in Las Vegas because the Riv announced it would allow one-thousand times odds (1000X odds) on its craps table. My friend said it was the dream of a lifetime because the house edge was as close to zero as you could possibly get. At the end of his trip he admitted to losing $20,000. I think he lost more.

A couple of years ago, I met a high roller friend at Casino Royale on Las Vegas Boulevard which is famous for 100X odds. He made flat beds of $5 each (the table minimum) and backed them up with 100x odds of $500. And in about an hour I saw him go through a $25,000 bankroll... on bets with the tiniest of "house edges."

The math people proclaim that the "odds bets" are the best bets on the table because there is "no house advantage." But it doesn't mean it will win. "No house advantage" only means that the bets are paid at the "true odds" of the game, but no matter what bet you put your money on, the likelihood is that for come bet and passline bet players that bet will lose -- true odds or no true odds.

There is NO betting formula or system or regimen or routine that will make anyone win at the craps table.

The only way to win at craps is to somehow -- someway -- alter the random distribution of the numbers that show when two dice are thrown down the table.

Until you somehow can master that skill, there is no point in doing anything but make the minimal bet with the minimum financial exposure.

Craps is a negative expectation game and that means the more you bet the more you will lose. And that brief sentence of extreme wisdom came from a dealer at Caesars Palace who explained the game to me when I first started to play it.

It is a brutally tuff game but, as I have stated in previous threads, the pass and 2 come bet system that all the books claim is so great is a losing proposition. I still prefer place and buy bets which, until you get to higher levels, pay the same as the pass or come with odds. If your casino allows it, the put bet is the best option once you exceed what would be 5x odds.

But as you correctly point out, the wins are so few and far between--you must stay alive and you must be an animal when they get hot. How do you know when they are hot? Usually too late but that's where experience and instinct help.

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Originally Posted by regnis

you must be an animal when they get hot. How do you know when they are hot? Usually too late but that's where experience and instinct help.

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I have a different way of determining when the dice are hot and when to press. I decide to press when I have replaced my initial outlay with "wins" and have a small profit, then I will use subsequent wins on that shooter to press my bets. Let me give you an example.

Let's say I am at a $10 table and the point is 6.

I will have $10 on the passline with full 5X odds of $50. Total $60.
I will also place the 4, 5, 8, 9 and 10 for $52 total. ($12 is the proper bet on the 8 for those not familiar with craps.)
My total outlay for this "hand" and this shooter is now $112.

When the shooter has hit enough passes and/or numbers to return to me about $125 (small profit of about $10) I will begin to press.

Let's say the shooter throws a 9 which pays $14, I will keep $9 and increase or press the bet on the 9 to $15. And with this pressing system I would use "wins" to add to my money at risk.

But the problem with this system or any other betting system is that you don't often "get there." Many shooter don't "repeat" numbers. Too many shooter establish a point and then simply "7 out" leaving the table loaded with starting bets that are scooped up by the dealers.

But when I press (or did so in the past) it was done not by instinct but when my initial outlay was returned to me plus a small profit.

"instinct" was probably over broad as certainly part of it is recouping your initial investment. I also try to get my initial stake for that roll back before pressing. I also do look at how he is tossing the dice---with some consistency or just whipping them where we are just hoping for blind luck.

But again, once I commit, I am going for the jugular

The bell curve at work. Of course, there will also be a few people who win money even at a negative game and think they are smarter than everyone else.