Example of EV trumping probabilities ... Wimbledon

If you want to be successful in beating casinos consistently, you have got to understand the basic math concept of Expected Value or EV. The fundamental rule is EV trumps probabilities. It does not matter what the probability of success is, you have have got to chose EV over probabilities.

Wimbledon gets a $141 million insurance payout due to Wuhan Pandemic. For 17 years, Wimbledon paid $2 million for a rider for Pandemic coverage. Wimbledon lost money for 16 straight years. Now on the 17th year, it collected on that policy. $34 million paid in insurance (ignoring compounding effects or time value of money) vs $141 million payoff.

Source: https://mobile.twitter.com/darrenrov...33676874334208

That was a great “play” from Wimbledon’s perspective. The insurance companies (on a 20-20 hindsight) underpriced the insurance or gave away the insurance too cheap.

In summary, 16 years of money down the drain did not change the fact that it was a good insurance purchase. The insurance companies were probably thinking this was easy money or taking candy from a baby. Lulz.

After the SARS of 2002-04, some bright people in Wimbledon did their jobs. Well done.