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2-0 yesterday.
I have five today.
Milwaukee (Burnes) +105 at San Diego (Paddack)
Yankees (Taillon) -123 vs. Atlanta (Morton)
Cubs (Arrieta) +115 vs. Mets (T. Walker)
Baltimore (Harvey) +109 at Miami (Neidert)
Kansas City (Keller) -101 vs. Tampa Bay (Hill)
Went 4-1 in those picks tonight, only losing Kansas City. Nice last 2 days.
Record update:
Through 4/10: 6-5 (+1.878 units)
4/11: 0-2 (-2.000 units)
4/13: 1-0 (+1.490 units)
4/14: 0-2 (-2.000 units)
4/15: 1-1 (+0.660 units)
4/16: 1-1 (+0.190 units)
4/19: 2-0 (+2.396 units)
4/20: 4-1 (+3.103 units)
4/11-4/20: 9-7 (+3.839 units)
OVERALL: 15-12 (+5.717 units)
Obviously happy with my MLB performance over the past 2 days, so let's keep it going.
Here are two picks, one starting soon, the other a bit later:
Cincinnati (Mahle) -1.5 +122 vs. Arizona (M. Kelly)
Kansas City (Junis) -101 vs. Tampa Bay (Wacha)
Yesterday my one loss was attempting to fade a has-been Rays pitcher -- though the loss was because the Royals pitching was horrendous. I was right about the Rays pitcher being bad. Anyway, hopefully we make up for it today against Wacha.
Bizarre day, essentially breaking even (losing 0.01 units).
Cincy went into the 9th up 3-0, but horrible closer Amir Garrett gave up a 3-run HR, and the wheels fell off from there (at that point it was very unlikely to win by 2 anyway, since Cincy was the home team.)
KC started off down 4-0 right away in the 1st, got it to 4-3, then fell behind 6-3, but a nice comeback brought them up 7-6. Their crap bullpen saw them fall behind 8-7, only to score 2 in the 9th to win in a walkoff. I'll take it.
Just one baseball pick today.
Taking the Cubs to sweep. Bit of a risky play with the inconsistent Williams, but Lucchesi isn't exactly going to challenge for the Cy Young this year, either.
Cubs +103 vs. Mets (Lucchesi)
Cubs won in extras.
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Oakland's 11-game winning streak ends today.
Don't fear Jorge Lopez's bad numbers (both 2021 and career).
It will happen. Trust me.
Baltimore +120 (J. Lopez) vs. Oakland (Irvin)
A rare early season MLB totals pick:
Minnesota (J. Happ) vs. Pittsburgh (Brubaker) - Under 8 -114
Detroit (Mize) +100 vs. Kansas City (Minor)
1-2 yesterday, only hitting the under.
Today:
Atlanta (Smyly) vs. Arizona (Bumgarner) - Under 9 -120
This one is a bit later:
Tampa Bay (Honeywell) -133 vs. Toronto (R. Ray)
Won the Tampa pick, Atlanta got rained out.
No picks today.
Time to fade Rich Hil again.
Last minute:
Oakland (Manaea) -107 vs. Tampa (Hill)
Won yesterday.
Let's go back the other way with Tampa, in my 3rd consecutive pick involving them.
Tampa (Wacha) -112 vs. Oakland (Montas)
And yes, it pains me to put favorite money on Wacha.
I'm going to mention this since it's historically unprecedented. The to-date ATS record of 2021 home favorites in baseball is 77-141 or thereabouts, depending on some marginal dog/fave flip-flops. The to-date ATS record of 2021 away favorites is 51-74 or thereabouts. This is wild.
As Todd might agree, I do put a little of the blame on the extra-inning rules, which reduce the advantage superior teams have heading into extra innings. The rules provide charity for the inferior team.
Those who know me have a pretty good idea what I'll be doing. I just want to mention that, in general, I do not bet baseball. I have never really been comfortable betting games where the playing fields are all different shapes and sizes. The idea of betting that kind of thing on a regular basis doesn't sit well with me.
I'm surprised that the home favorites are doing so badly ATS, given that the extra innings rule benefits the home team big time. However, I know you're saying home FAVORITES, so yes, I will agree that the rule does help the worse teams level the playing field. Interesting.
Funny that your post came on the heels of my winning a home favorite (albeit a very small favorite).
Anyway, no MLB picks today. All NBA for me this evening.
Texas (Gibson) -102 vs. Boston (M. Perez)
Colorado (Senzatela) +123 at Arizona (Weaver)
1-1 yesterday, winning Texas and losing Colorado, which had a 3-0 early lead.
Today:
Pittsburgh (Brubaker) -115 vs. St. Louis (Gant)
Cincinnati (Miley) -126 vs. Cubs (Arrieta)
Miami (P. Lopez) -126 at Washington (Lester)
Yes, Jon Lester is pitching today. Obvious fade. Also Pablo Lopez is legit good.
Won only the Cincinnati pick on the 30th. No picks past four days.
Here's my record. Oddly, on all days I made picks since 4/21, I won exactly one game each time.
Previous record through 4/20: 15-12 (+5.717 units)
4/21: 1-1 (-0.010)
4/22: 1-0 (+1.030)
4/23: 1-2 (-1.123)
4/24: 1-0 (+0.752)
4/26: 1-0 (+0.935)
4/27: 1-0 (+0.893)
4/29: 1-1 (-0.020)
4/30: 1-2 (-1.206)
No picks 5/1-5/4
TOTAL 4/21-5/4: 8-6 (+1.251 units)
GRAND TOTAL: 23-18 (+6.968 units)
Let's jump back in after zero picks the past 4 days, and start with an under:
Boston (Martin Perez) vs. Detroit (Mize) - Under 9 -115