Wise Guys Notes

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09-24-2018, 09:25 PM
redietz

Wise Guys Notes

In case anyone is following me in the Wise Guys Contest at playbook.com, I wanted to warn people off of my selections this week. This is one of those rare weeks (the second in the last decade) where I have no straight plays this week as of today. The contest, however, requires two plays a week, so I basically used two games that don't actually qualify as wager-worthy. I'm somewhere in the top five. I didn't want people to assume I'm hot again (I won eleven in a row last year) and get on the bandwagon this week.

I may discover a college total or two this week, and I will use one teaser, but college totals are not allowed in the contest until the bowls, and teasers are not allowed as contest plays.
09-24-2018, 09:40 PM
SplitFaceDisaster

I don`t sports bet, but as a sports fan I like to follow along with the lines sometimes. I went to the website, but didn`t see a way to look at the contest and your picks. Do you have to be a member there to see that, or I am just not looking in the right place?
09-24-2018, 10:07 PM
redietz

Quote:

Originally Posted by SplitFaceDisaster

I don`t sports bet, but as a sports fan I like to follow along with the lines sometimes. I went to the website, but didn`t see a way to look at the contest and your picks. Do you have to be a member there to see that, or I am just not looking in the right place?

I think, regarding the website, you have to register and then pay some small weekly fee to see who everyone takes. The people who subscribe to the weekly newsletter have at least a partial listing included in the newsletter. I'm technically an outsider, so I just compete. I don't make any decisions on how they release the plays. Obviously, they wouldn't be thrilled if one of the leaders reports that he has no actual wager-worthy plays a given week. But I like to give people a heads up so they don't blow amounts of money equal to what's already been made on previous plays.

I would just call them to verify what the protocol is.
09-24-2018, 11:11 PM
Guy Incognito

I've started doing a bit of CFB betting in the last couple of seasons (semi-successfully), but I'm always looking to improve, so I wouldn't mind seeing your picks if you're able to post them publicly.
09-25-2018, 01:09 AM
redietz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guy Incognito

I've started doing a bit of CFB betting in the last couple of seasons (semi-successfully), but I'm always looking to improve, so I wouldn't mind seeing your picks if you're able to post them publicly.

Other than the Wise Guys Contest, which is just two plays a week (albeit usually two of the best plays), I don't publicly post what we're doing. If there are other major public contests (there was one a few years back on a website), then the games are on display, but in general I don't just publicly post them. That would pretty much defeat the purpose.

Most of what I do these days is not in the vein of picking games for people to buy. Most of what I do is hands-on wagering, working on a percent of profit basis. Numbers move so radically in college football and college basketball (which I do not do) that the old pick-a-game-bet-it model is prehistoric. WHEN you make a wager, timing it, is almost as important as what teams you take. Anticipating line moves is a key aspect of everything. Really, these days, in college sports, if you can't handicap a lick but you have an expertise in line movement, you can make money.

I like the Wise Guys, as it's a collection of top handicappers, some of whom have been at it 30 years or more and all of whom have established reputations. It's invitation-only, so you have to have some kind of reputation to participate. It keeps me connected and marginally in the loop, so to speak. Think of it as a somewhat less prestigious Blackjack Ball. I'm probably never going to win again, mainly because it's an 18-week contest, and I have plays for about 11 or 12 weeks, after which the college football regular season ends and I'm basically flipping coins. But getting plays ready for 9 PM Monday night is part of my routine, and it forces me to process a ton of information quickly to make that deadline, which is helpful overall.

The other thing is, one really does not want one's plays in the public domain in general, as you will be data-mined to death by others. Having people profile what kinds of teams you take is never a good thing.
09-25-2018, 01:18 AM
SplitFaceDisaster

Quote:

Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

Originally Posted by SplitFaceDisaster

I don`t sports bet, but as a sports fan I like to follow along with the lines sometimes. I went to the website, but didn`t see a way to look at the contest and your picks. Do you have to be a member there to see that, or I am just not looking in the right place?

I think, regarding the website, you have to register and then pay some small weekly fee to see who everyone takes. The people who subscribe to the weekly newsletter have at least a partial listing included in the newsletter. I'm technically an outsider, so I just compete. I don't make any decisions on how they release the plays. Obviously, they wouldn't be thrilled if one of the leaders reports that he has no actual wager-worthy plays a given week. But I like to give people a heads up so they don't blow amounts of money equal to what's already been made on previous plays.

I would just call them to verify what the protocol is.

Gotcha. Thanks.