Advantage play at NJ online casinos involving Ocean Magic machine results in some casinos holding up withdrawals

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Originally Posted by Mission146

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Advantageplay, I would think that for the play to be profitable there must be a pretty good chance of more bubbles coming out in the four spins? Is that accurate?

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I believe that some of the line pays relative to the bet amount are better without the Boost than with it 4OaK and 5OaK, but I'll check tomorrow. I know there are some three-of-a-kinds that pay with the Boost off that do not pay if the Boost is on, at least, on the physical machine game.

Also, extra bubbles can still come up from the bottom whether or not the Boost is on. Overall, Boost probably has a better return percentage, but not by all that much. I would certainly take a Bubble in the center reel with or without Boost, there is no question the advantage is substantial either way.

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The point is, the article is stating column 1 row 2 and 1 bubble somewhere in column 4. Mickey is stating that is not playable based on his experience. I agree.
I wrongly assumed a starting bubble in Column 3 as well. There is something being left out of the story, which is fine. I'm pretty sure that I know what it is.

That was the starting state. Nothing from that part is being left out. We ran in line with the math . We had over 100 total accounts. If you are counting 1 per 1 casino as an account. I’m sure we didn’t run 10x expecatation

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

The point is, the article is stating column 1 row 2 and 1 bubble somewhere in column 4. Mickey is stating that is not playable based on his experience. I agree.
I wrongly assumed a starting bubble in Column 3 as well. There is something being left out of the story, which is fine. I'm pretty sure that I know what it is.

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With all due respect, this is almost definitely an advantage on the initial spin, in my opinion, even on the physical machines. I can't speak for the following spins that may or may not involve Reel 4 by itself, and again this is just speaking to physical machines; (never played the online game) I wouldn't personally play Reel 4 by itself...but I can't say with 100% certainty that it is not advantageous.

I think the only thing to do is the next time I'm around the OM's I'm gonna play the lone 4th column bubble for a hundred spins or so to see if I missed something. Also differentiating between boost and non-boost.

I've taken several hundred 4th reel wild spins and do not think they are +ev by themselves and no longer play them. However, I wouldn't be surprised if I was wrong and it's just a long term +ev play when you combine your immediate equity with the equity of getting more bubbles and/or hitting the bonus. The one exception I make is if there is a hidden 4th reel bubble below the payline, I'll take 1 spin and continue if another bubble pops up in the 1st-3rd reels. I'm def convinced 4th reel wilds by themselves are not profitable on OMG.

There's a thread started today by the Wiz on the math of the game over at WoV.

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Originally Posted by LeonardShelby

There's a thread started today by the Wiz on the math of the game over at WoV.

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http://tinyurl.com/y28vpmn2

The Wizard currently has bubbles in the first column valued higher than bubbles in the 3rd column. This is just not correct. The 3rd column is the powerhouse on the play. The 3rd column has by far more OM symbols than any other reel. And you make 4 in a rows and 5 in a rows when you connect.

Agreed.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

The Wizard currently has bubbles in the first column valued higher than bubbles in the 3rd column. This is just not correct. The 3rd column is the powerhouse on the play. The 3rd column has by far more OM symbols than any other reel. And you make 4 in a rows and 5 in a rows when you connect.

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I agree 100%. There are many more OM symbols on the third reel, OM symbols are conspicuously absent on the second and almost never stack, Reels 1, 4 and 5 are relatively equal on frequency.

More than that, there are fewer higher paying regular symbols (with exception to OM) on Reel 3.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

The Wizard currently has bubbles in the first column valued higher than bubbles in the 3rd column. This is just not correct. The 3rd column is the powerhouse on the play. The 3rd column has by far more OM symbols than any other reel. And you make 4 in a rows and 5 in a rows when you connect.

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I think he will eventually come to that same conclusion once he looks into it a little deeper.

Something a little confusing to me is that the article states the math had been confirmed before play commenced. I think somewhere Advantageplay had said (maybe on his Twitter account — can’t remember for sure) it was Wizard who did the math. But it appears Wizard is just now digging into the details of the game. Maybe the initial analysis was just an estimate that looked good enough to move forward with higher denomination play.

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Originally Posted by kuma

Something a little confusing to me is that the article states the math had been confirmed before play commenced. I think somewhere Advantageplay had said (maybe on his Twitter account — can’t remember for sure) it was Wizard who did the math. But it appears Wizard is just now digging into the details of the game. Maybe the initial analysis was just an estimate that looked good enough to move forward with higher denomination play.

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As far as the math goes, the Wizard's involvement is like swatting a fly with a sledgehammer IMHO. You need two contingency tables as depicted in the screenshot below. One to collect the frequency of occurrence of Ocean Magic symbols and one to collect the occurrence of Wilds. From these two contingency tables you can estimate the marginal probability of occurrence of each symbol (wild or ocean magic) and their joint probability of occurrence (frequency of a Ocean Magic bubble landing on a Wild bubble obtained by multiplying the marginal probabilities together for that cell). These, when multiplied by the payout against the various other symbols can give the player an idea of their edge. So the hard part isn't the math, but the tediousness of collecting the data (youtube,observing other players,playing it yourself,being part of an AP crew and getting a hold of a par sheet, etc).

The problem with the lone 4th column bubble is even if you connect with an OM symbol is doesn't mean the spin will pay anything. The first two columns won't line up for anything quite a lot. That's always been my problem with the 4th column bubble. I just don't see it as a positive play.

The more I think about this story the more it just doesn't add up to me. My current opinion is that if the play had been offered to me as it has been presented I would have turned it down. My experience with lone 4th column bubbles would not allow me to risk that kind of money on such a play. Remember, this is a very short term play. The edge has to manifest itself quickly. I don't see that happening with a lone 4th column bubble.

Another question. Who were they other AP's on the play? No one has come forward.

The problem with the lone 4th column bubble is even if you connect with an OM symbol is doesn't mean the spin will pay anything. The first two columns won't line up for anything quite a lot. That's always been my problem with the 4th column bubble. I just don't see it as a positive play.

The more I think about this story the more it just doesn't add up to me. My current opinion is that if the play had been offered to me as it has been presented I would have turned it down. My experience with lone 4th column bubbles would not allow me to risk that kind of money on such a play. Remember, this is a very short term play. The edge has to manifest itself quickly. I don't see that happening with a lone 4th column bubble.

Another question. Who were they other AP's on the play? No one has come forward.

There are other details that I cannot discuss at the moment. Probably in about two weeks I’d be willing to discuss more.
On a side note borgata did release the holds on all of the accounts.
There won’t be anyone else coming forward since most were not full time APs. Just people that the play was shared with .

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

The problem with the lone 4th column bubble is even if you connect with an OM symbol is doesn't mean the spin will pay anything. The first two columns won't line up for anything quite a lot. That's always been my problem with the 4th column bubble. I just don't see it as a positive play.

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Mickey -- do you think it could possibly be positive in Bubble Boost mode where you have that Reel 4 wild, and are also paying for the possibility of a barrage of bubbles hitting Reels 1-3? I agree the majority of time hitting an OM symbol on a lone Reel 4 wild yields nothing, and not worth playing in non-Bubble Boost.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

The more I think about this story the more it just doesn't add up to me. My current opinion is that if the play had been offered to me as it has been presented I would have turned it down. My experience with lone 4th column bubbles would not allow me to risk that kind of money on such a play. Remember, this is a very short term play. The edge has to manifest itself quickly. I don't see that happening with a lone 4th column bubble.

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This was a really interesting thread. At one point though there were too many columns, rows, reels and bubbles. I couldn't keep up, too confusing for me. I think mickeycrimm is a big man to express some doubts. To say lets slow it down and think about it.

I give credit to redietz also for showing a good amount of integrity earlier in a post now gone. He'll know what I am talking about.

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Originally Posted by pahrump pete

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

The more I think about this story the more it just doesn't add up to me. My current opinion is that if the play had been offered to me as it has been presented I would have turned it down. My experience with lone 4th column bubbles would not allow me to risk that kind of money on such a play. Remember, this is a very short term play. The edge has to manifest itself quickly. I don't see that happening with a lone 4th column bubble.

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This was a really interesting thread. At one point though there were too many columns, rows, reels and bubbles. I couldn't keep up, too confusing for me. I think mickeycrimm is a big man to express some doubts. To say lets slow it down and think about it.

I give credit to redietz also for showing a good amount of integrity earlier in a post now gone. He'll know what I am talking about.

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Thanks for the compliment Pete. But now I'm going back the other way. There is something that hasnt been discussed about the play. And that is overall payback percentage. In the casinos Ocean Magic is in the mid to upper 80's percentagewise. What if the online game is say mid 90's. Would a lone bubble in the 4th column be playable then. I think so. I'm now thinking that is the missing piece to the puzzle.

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Originally Posted by kuma

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

The problem with the lone 4th column bubble is even if you connect with an OM symbol is doesn't mean the spin will pay anything. The first two columns won't line up for anything quite a lot. That's always been my problem with the 4th column bubble. I just don't see it as a positive play.

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Mickey -- do you think it could possibly be positive in Bubble Boost mode where you have that Reel 4 wild, and are also paying for the possibility of a barrage of bubbles hitting Reels 1-3? I agree the majority of time hitting an OM symbol on a lone Reel 4 wild yields nothing, and not worth playing in non-Bubble Boost.

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I think we have been comparing apples to oranges. If the game has a high enough payback percentage then a lone bubble in the 4th column becomes playable. The cost to operate an online casino has to be much lower than operating a brick & mortar casino. The B & M's have a lot of overhead including RFB. The online casinos can probably afford to offer higher payback video line games. I now think that is what is going on with this play.

They beat the NJ online casinos again:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...TU3EOJvnKwhgTx