Coronavirus Accuracy

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05-05-2020, 07:09 AM
redietz

Coronavirus Accuracy

In early March, after I returned from Las Vegas and had evaluated airports vis-à-vis the virus, I posted here that I thought the Las Vegas casinos would close and posted my rationale. I was met with disbelief. I was completely correct.

Back when this all started, Boz made the comment that the virus death toll had reached the number of people killed by 9/11. My posted response was that it would sprint by that number by a factor of 30, which would have yielded 90-some thousand deaths. If that number sounds familiar, it was the one being quoted by President Trump last time he gave an estimate.

When the first two days of New York blowing up with the virus yielded really bad numbers, I posted that I had significantly underestimated the total, and that it could be much, much worse.

Early on, I said that I expected the U.S. response would be "slightly worse" than Italy's, given the behavioral propensities of Americans and shelter-in-place rules. Considering how bad Italy was at the time, and how the U.S. had weeks of Italy's example, this seemed like an "out in left field" prediction. It was not.

I was also completely correct on how the public was being led down a primrose path with administration projections. These entries in my blog were particularly prescient and accurate:

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...ol-issues.html

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nnumeracy.html

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...r-massage.html

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...cy-lunacy.html

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...psych-101.html

I don't really want to be accused of cherry-picking the most accurate entries, so feel free to read all entries and see if I was inaccurate regarding much of anything.

For those who garnered some accurate information from my posts at VCT regarding the virus, glad to be of service.

What do I expect going forward? The projections (with August 4th as an artificial end date) ballpark at 135,000 deaths from the U of W model. That's roughly Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined without long-term deaths. That's pretty bad for an August 4th deadline with multiple waves in the future. I expect worse.

Something to bear in mind. The more that an economy relies on wants, not needs, to drive it, the more vulnerable it is in time of war. The more a people exist in an economy that emphasizes fulfilling wants, not needs, the less disciplined they are. Bad combination.

It is a mess. It will get worse.
05-05-2020, 07:13 AM
monet

Heil Witchmer!!
05-05-2020, 07:23 AM
Bob21

Quote:

Originally Posted by redietz

What do I expect going forward? The projections (with August 4th as an artificial end date) ballpark at 135,000 deaths from the U of W model. That's roughly Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined without long-term deaths.

Big big big difference between the deaths at Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the deaths from coronavirus. The deaths at Hiroshima and Nagasaki were a cross section of the population, meaning young, middle age and old died. The deaths from this virus are mostly the elderly sitting in our warehouses (I mean nursing homes) waiting to die.

All deaths are bad, but most people would be more concerned about a young kid dying than some 90 year old in a nursing home waiting to die. That’s just reality.

Liberals continue to want to paint the deaths from coronavirus as being a cross section of our society, and refuse to acknowledge who is really dying.
05-05-2020, 07:59 AM
mcap

Thanks comrade.
05-05-2020, 04:10 PM
mickeycrimm

Of course, redietz totally ignores the padding of numbers which is going on bigtime. He doesn't factor in the thousands of lives that were saved from the common flu during the shutdown nor does he factor in the drop in highway fatalities which also numbers in the thousands.

Redietz totally ignores the economic consequences of the shutdown and huge negative effect on the people of the world. Millions are and will starve because of the economic shutdowns.

All the elective surgeries that haven't been done. My roommate had to postpone a surgery to relieve back pain because of the shutdown. He's living in pain everyday.
05-05-2020, 06:46 PM
The Boz

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Of course, redietz totally ignores the padding of numbers which is going on bigtime. He doesn't factor in the thousands of lives that were saved from the common flu during the shutdown nor does he factor in the drop in highway fatalities which also numbers in the thousands.

Redietz totally ignores the economic consequences of the shutdown and huge negative effect on the people of the world. Millions are and will starve because of the economic shutdowns.

All the elective surgeries that haven't been done. My roommate had to postpone a surgery to relieve back pain because of the shutdown. He's living in pain everyday.

And he REFUSES to release how much money he has gotten from the Federal Government for Bob Dietz “Integrity” Sports and how much in Unemployment he is getting from his home state.

Also as an admitted Trump hater, it’s obvious he has a vested political interest in the deaths. Hell, we could call him Bob “Dr Death” Dietz.

People losing their businesses mean nothing to him. He wants them dependent on the government and sees this as an opportunity to get us closer to that.

By the Red, how much for the winner of 1st Race at Tampa Bay Downs on Wednesday? I like Prison Padre at 4-1 ML. But I’m open to your input. Or would selling a pick mess with the claims you have filed that you can’t make any money?
05-05-2020, 06:56 PM
redietz

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...nalysis-2020-4

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ed/2973481001/

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...mentsContainer

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries
05-05-2020, 07:02 PM
mickeycrimm

Quote:

Originally Posted by redietz

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...nalysis-2020-4

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ed/2973481001/

I see you are big into fake fact checkers.
05-05-2020, 07:07 PM
mickeycrimm

Redeitz told me that CV in Montana would peak in June or July.

We've had 457 cases since 13 Mar.
16 deaths
In early April we were averging 11 new cases per day.
The last two weeks we have averaged 2 new cases per day.
The last week we have average 1 new case per day.
And that is with 250 people a day being tested.
We have only 31 active cases left.
We have only 6 hospitalizations left.

I'm looking at these numbers trying to figure out how redietz figured we would peak in June or July.

All numbers came off worldometers, except I've been tracking the number of new cases per day. I check it everyday and enter it into a log.
05-05-2020, 07:12 PM
Bob21

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Redeitz told me that CV in Montana would peak in June or July.

We've had 457 cases since 13 Mar.
16 deaths
In early April we were averging 11 new cases per day.
The last two weeks we have averaged 2 new cases per day.
The last week we have average 1 new case per day.
And that is with 250 people a day being tested.
We have only 31 active cases left.
We have only 6 hospitalizations left.

I'm looking at these numbers trying to figure out how redietz figured we would peak in June or July.

All number came off worldometers, except I've been tracking the number of new cases per day. I check it everyday and enter it into a log.

Yeah, but you still haven't experienced the forth wave yet. I hear that's the worst one, and when the bodies really start piling up.
05-06-2020, 05:59 AM
mickeycrimm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob21

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Redeitz told me that CV in Montana would peak in June or July.

We've had 457 cases since 13 Mar.
16 deaths
In early April we were averging 11 new cases per day.
The last two weeks we have averaged 2 new cases per day.
The last week we have average 1 new case per day.
And that is with 250 people a day being tested.
We have only 31 active cases left.
We have only 6 hospitalizations left.

I'm looking at these numbers trying to figure out how redietz figured we would peak in June or July.

All number came off worldometers, except I've been tracking the number of new cases per day. I check it everyday and enter it into a log.

Yeah, but you still haven't experienced the forth wave yet. I hear that's the worst one, and when the bodies really start piling up.

Oh, God. Not the dreaded 4th wave. I'm going to Antarctica.
05-06-2020, 06:13 AM
Keystone

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob21

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Redeitz told me that CV in Montana would peak in June or July.

We've had 457 cases since 13 Mar.
16 deaths
In early April we were averging 11 new cases per day.
The last two weeks we have averaged 2 new cases per day.
The last week we have average 1 new case per day.
And that is with 250 people a day being tested.
We have only 31 active cases left.
We have only 6 hospitalizations left.

I'm looking at these numbers trying to figure out how redietz figured we would peak in June or July.

All number came off worldometers, except I've been tracking the number of new cases per day. I check it everyday and enter it into a log.

Yeah, but you still haven't experienced the forth wave yet. I hear that's the worst one, and when the bodies really start piling up.

LOL