NFL team wins over/under

Team win totals are out today. They actually leaked out last night which is pretty normal.

I look for a team that finished last in their division last year, that I beleive is better than that finish and playing a last place schedule, should improve pretty easy on their win total. Last years team was my Phila Eagles who easily went over 6.5.

This year I saw several candidates. Giants, Panthers, Ravens, Broncos.

The Broncos number jumped up way to much from 7 to 10 with Russell Wilson.

I personally can't bet and route for the Giants, who are in the Eagles division. (although that may be a good bet)

That leaves two, Panthers and Ravens. I bet both an hour ago before the lines move. For those not familiar the win total doesn't move, but the amount you pay for that win number (-110) does move and often dramatically as soon as people jump on a number that seems low.

For those not familiar with the scheduling, aspect. Each Team plays the other teams in their division twice. That is 6 games. Each division plays the 4 teams from one NFC division and the 4 teams from one AFC division which rotates annually. Like for the Eagles and other NFC east teams they play the 4 teams from AFC east and 4 teams from the NFC west. That is 8 more games for a total of 14. The last 3 games are the ones that are determined by where you finished in your division. If you finished last, those final 3 games will be against 3 other teams that finished last in their division, So in total each division last place team will play 5 other teams that finished last. That is a good starting point for improving wins from previous year.

I know it’s a 17 game season, but I don’t see the Giants at 7 having any value. Even with a split in the division, that leaves 5 wins to cash (4 to get your money back). I like Daboll as a coach but Jones or Tyrod aren’t Josh Allen and they are so cap strapped they couldn’t add anything worthwhile in Free Agency. And still possibly the worst OL in Football. I definitely like the Under on the Giants.

The Ravens are 9.5 so a bounce back is expected but 10-7 isn’t easy in that division that seems to beat each other up every year. I believe Mitch is an improvement of the Ben of 21 in Pittsburgh. Burrow is only going to get better and Cleveland is a wild card based on Watson’s availability. Also almost every AFC game is going to be competitive, the conference is loaded so wins are going to be tougher.

I do have few I like based on schedules and the overall weakness of the NFC. But I usually wait until closer to the regular season to bet because of injuries, the draft and other factors in the teams my picks play as well. Note Draft Kings isn’t offering Cleveland at all at this point because of Watson. And I will say KC under 11 seems like a bargain to me based on their losses and the improvements in that division.

The odds can definitely change drastically in some cases before the start but I don’t see anything wrong in betting now with money you don’t need until January. In your and my case, it’s not money we need and more of speculation than what you do for a living.

The odds can change dramatically once people start betting. I have often seen win numbers that I like one way or another, but by the time, I am ready to bet, you have to lay -150 or even higher to get that number. Everyone has jumped on it.

The AFC north is about even in my opinion. The Bengals won the division at 10-7 last year. You say Borrows will continue to improve. I beleive that over the long run. But often QB's suffer a sophomore jinks or lack of improvement or even slight decline in their second year. technically this is his 3rd year, but for all intensive purposes, his second. I also don't feel the same way about Mitch T. And clearly Watson is going to be suspended for some games. 4? 6? 8? We will see what kind of statement the NFL wants to make, but he is going to miss some time. Withe that last place schedule and a couple extra wins from playing other last place teams, I have the Ravens at 11-6 and winning the division. I wish the number was 9 to allow for more leeway, but I still like it.

Panthers are the weird one for me. I am betting a team without a QB. That is because I think the NFC south is not very good with the exception of a Tom Brady lead TB. they will get their 11 wins and win the division. I don't think N.O. or Atlanta is even a 500 team. And you know what, eventually Tom Brady for as good as he has been is going to experience a major drop off. And when it happens it usually happens quickly. Drew Breeze was fine one year and the next couldn't throw the ball more than 15 yards down field accurately. AND, while not wishing anything, as good a shape as Brady keeps himself with his healthy eating and all, some day, some 350 lb lineman will land on his knee and that will be that.

I wish I could bet the Eagles. Then wouldn't have to bet them anymore during the year. I think their number is a very fair number though.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.5 seems a little high but maybe get on this now during the saints game stopping their run to superbowl. think bills also at 11.5 is also a bit much. do not see any teams running away with things.