Quick Wise Guys 2019 Note

Those of you who have followed my Wise Guys Contest plays the last couple of years have made some reasonable money, especially if you laid off the plays after the college regular season ended, as per my advice. Unfortunately, it's an 18-week contest, and I basically have 10 weeks worth of plays.

Anyway, I wanted to give a heads up that this college football season looks exceedingly difficult. I'm not saying don't play my games, but I would cut way back and wager maybe a third of what you've played the last few years. It is that rough, just eyeballing it in advance. Too few good teams; a real lack of quality defenses. Not my cup of tea.

I've won 33 out of 40 seasons doing this professionally, and usually I have some sense of how hard it's going to be. This 2019 thing looks hard.

A couple of quick notes. I don't think I mentioned it here, but somehow I won the 2018 LineMasters' Bowl Contest. Not sure how. I lost the first two games, then won 9 out of 10 and won all of the big ones. Very lucky. Half of those games, in my opinion, were not even bettable, but you had to use 12 plays in the contest. Also, I was one of two people who finished in the top 25 of both the college and NFL Northbet.ag contests last season. I didn't win a cent (top three cashed), but at least I got to squint at the leaderboard each week.

That's about it. Good luck in 2019.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Those of you who have followed my Wise Guys Contest plays the last couple of years have made some reasonable money, especially if you laid off the plays after the college regular season ended, as per my advice. Unfortunately, it's an 18-week contest, and I basically have 10 weeks worth of plays.

Anyway, I wanted to give a heads up that this college football season looks exceedingly difficult. I'm not saying don't play my games, but I would cut way back and wager maybe a third of what you've played the last few years. It is that rough, just eyeballing it in advance. Too few good teams; a real lack of quality defenses. Not my cup of tea.

I've won 33 out of 40 seasons doing this professionally, and usually I have some sense of how hard it's going to be. This 2019 thing looks hard.

A couple of quick notes. I don't think I mentioned it here, but somehow I won the 2018 LineMasters' Bowl Contest. Not sure how. I lost the first two games, then won 9 out of 10 and won all of the big ones. Very lucky. Half of those games, in my opinion, were not even bettable, but you had to use 12 plays in the contest. Also, I was one of two people who finished in the top 25 of both the college and NFL Northbet.ag contests last season. I didn't win a cent (top three cashed), but at least I got to squint at the leaderboard each week.

That's about it. Good luck in 2019.

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red: where can we go to follow your picks? what website?...................thanks

Well, the Wise Guys plays can be found at www.playbook.com, which runs the contest. I don't participate in any income or profits from that network of sites. I just compete in the Wise Guys, and they occasionally give me a mention that I'm doing this or that. The Wise Guys promo is at vegaswiseguys.com.

My actual plays aren't available except through my clients, who I work for on a percent of profit basis (everybody gets the same plays, but I execute the plays). College lines move so much that when you take something matters almost as much as who you take, so announcing a lineup at, say, Friday at 1 PM with Friday 1 PM lines is prehistoric, in my opinion.

If you want to follow my science-y but sports related blog:

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...g-in-rain.html

The other blog entries can be reached with the right column. I'll give updates on how the season is going in the blog.

Thanks for asking. Hope 2019 treats you well!

For those who have Northbet accounts, you can follow the college spread contest. After two weeks of the 12-games-a-week, forced choice format, I'm tied for sixth. In the past, the contest has had a couple thousand entrants, but with the new deposit-to-play requirement, there's considerably fewer.

Off to a good start in the Wise Guys, but it looks to be a very difficult year in this very challenging competition.

Update: Moved into a tie for second in the Northbet college spread contest. It's forced-choice with 12 games a week, so things can go sideways pretty quickly, but it's always nice to be able to make a run at it. Just the top three cash.

For those who may ever find themselves on the Northbet contest leaderboard, I have a suggestion. If a game's an ATS toss-up to you, take the chalk, because everybody else will (and if you're playing catchup, take the dog). After three weeks of 7-4, 9-3, and 7-5 ATS, I find myself tied for seventh. The Oklahoma cover killed me and cost me about five spots. The leaders routinely load up on chalk with games involving top teams. The Oklahoma/UCLA game was a coin flip to me, and I chose wrong.

This is what professional grinding away is like. After a 9-3 ATS week, back on the leaderboard of the Northbet College Contest. Thus far, in the forced-choice format, I posted 7-4, 9-3, 7-5, 6-6, 6-6, 5-7, 7-5, and 9-3 ATS records week-by-week. That is, if my addition is correct, a 56-39 ATS record, good enough for 15th or thereabouts. I made a terrible choice today -- was going to switch to Kentucky because of the rain in the Georgia/Kentucky game, but did not because I wasn't sure Kentucky would get in the end zone, and the mental image of them playing from behind against Georgia turned my stomach. The rain dictated the game.

For those following the legendary Wise Guys Contest, you'll find that I'm 9-5 in terms of record. But if you've been betting the games, you should be 10-4, as I was tagged with a loss on Texas vs. West Virginia. I took Texas, but the contest line was an aberrational 11 1/2. At least 99% of people betting Texas won the game. My college plays will wind down in about three weeks, so once I start using NFL games, best to not play them. I'm a college specialist. The contest, unfortunately, is 18 weeks and starts NFL week one, which means it skips the opening college weekends. And then I'm left with about six weeks of throwing darts after the college season ends.

After 10 weeks of the Northbet college contest, I'm tied for eighth with a 69-50 ATS record. The contest requires you to handicap a dozen games each week selected by Northbet, not you. The 69-50 record is pretty awesome considering the format, but what's extraordinary is the leader's 76-43 record, which is phenomenal.

I wrapped up the first 12 weeks of the 2019 Wise Guys Contest with a 16-8 ATS record and 9-3 Best Bets. It should be 17-7 and 10-2, but I was stuck with an anomalous line for Texas/West Virginia.

Anyway, for those following and wagering, my college regular season is done. Unfortunately, the contest has six more weeks, so I will in essence be flipping coins the rest of the way. The last week of the college regular season is technically next week, but I usually don't do much of anything, as teams are exhausted, the schedule is laced with rivalry games and road teams playing underclassmen, and coaches and coordinators are often packing their bags for their next gigs. So my strong advice is to not play my games, even though they will be there in black and white. No sense wagering on coin flips. I also do very little with the bowls since they have turned into guessing games as to when players announce they are taking the games off.

Today's plays were Texas A&M and North Texas. The Mean Green QB was coming off a concussion two weeks ago, and frankly, he was not right. That is the worst game I have seen him play in three years, and they were playing Rice, so that says something. Wish me luck flipping those coins, and I hope those following along had a nice profitable run.

Over and out.

With one week to play, I'm tied for 10th in the Northbet Pick the Pros Contest, which has no point spreads. Since I'm three games from the paying positions, I'm faced with the question of whether 'tis better to finish as well as one can or to fire a nutjob lineup the final week in an attempt to make up three games, which is just about impossible. The contest had 2000 entries plus in seasons past, but the deposit qualification this season probably reduced that number by half.