Covid-19 by the numbers

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

We are over 400 deaths in the United States just today (and still have a couple hours to go). That is up from 285 yesterday.

Last Friday was 22 deaths. That means in 1 week....7 DAYS an increase of 20 fold or 2000%

If we have the same rate of increase over the next 7 days next Friday will be at 8000 deaths, right on the cusp of your number monet.

For a bunch of gambling type, math type guys, I don't think some of you are really seeing these numbers, which surprises me.

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A new model by the University of Washington projects COVID-19 cases and deaths for the United States and every state in the country.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

This website shows a National Projection and State by State.
They also project Beds, ICU Beds and Ventilators.

You will have to average 9000 deaths per day for 365 days just to lose about 1% of the American Population.
I guess anything is possible but we would have to go through the heat of summer for this to happen and summer is right around the corner.
After you have 60 to 70% of the population infected the population will build up a natural resistance.
It wasn't long ago they estimated 80% of the world population to catch it and figured a death rate of 1%.
Whats 1% of the total world population, 7.6 Billion... 76 Million People Worldwide??
So is shutting the whole world down going to make that number less or more?

These numbers are easy to look at on paper until it hits you or your family personally.
That's when people really freak out.

California is already showing that their projections were way off.
Like you said before... just let everyone catch it and take our chances.
You have to lose about 2.5% of the American population just to catch up to worldwide starvation numbers.
With all the Media hype and shutting down the world economy it is understandable that you are starting to freak out.
As I have said before the real threat is the Government gaining more control over the populace and Americans losing the little Liberty they have left.
It isn't like you can do anything about it.
You could stock up on everything and ride it out at home or...
you could go out and use your resources to help the general public, homeless, neighbors... etc etc.
I'm guessing most of us are too selfish for the second option.

A person does not need to be some sort of expert in Mathematics to Steal from the Casinos.
Basic Math, Experience and Ice Water is enough.

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Originally Posted by monet

These numbers are easy to look at on paper until it hits you or your family personally.
That's when people really freak out.

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Originally Posted by monet

With all the Media hype and shutting down the world economy it is understandable that you are starting to freak out.

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https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...QHLlQ43rTNARwV

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Originally Posted by LMR

Coronavirus ---> Carnivorous.


Another connection to Italy.

Covid-19 = SARS-CoV-2 ---> Rossa (VC), too.

Rossa is a comune (municipality) in the Province of Vercelli in the Italian region Piedmont, located about 90 kilometres (56 mi) northeast of Turin and about 60 kilometres (37 mi) northwest of Vercelli.


What would be neat would be a connection to the stock market.

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Okay, to try to clean this stuff up a little.

Firstly, D'COVI-19 written out is d'sease coronavirus-19, which goes six letters, eleven letters, and number, 19, all of which goes, 6-11-19, which is, if I recall, the same arrangement of digits as the short form by Roman numerals, but without the zeros. Note that the d' stands for di, without the i counted as a letter, or Roman numeral. The di or d' goes with co, and vi to form Covid, or D'COVI respectively.

Secondly, it turns out that the town or whatever it is of, Rossa (VC), has a land area of 6.11 km^2, and, a population of 180. Note that 180 may be written in two ways here. -10 + 190 = 90(1 + 1), which goes 119, and 911. The area may written as [km^(1 + 1)]6.11, which goes 116, and 611, if we take the 6's as coincidental or superposed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossa,_Piedmont

Thirdly, the part about the stock market. This is where the numbers of the letters in the alphabet come into it. As before, D'COVI ---> 606, in Roman numerals. Now we write it in terms of 401-k. I take the 401-k to be some part of the markets, the part for the older persons. 606 = 401 + 205 = 401 + 5(41) = 401 + [10/(1 + 1)][1 + (10)4] ---> 401-11-104 ---> 401-k-104, where k is the eleventh letter of the alphabet.

Fourthly, what happens when we look at the other letters of the alphabet here? From the beginning of the alphabet, we have, 6 = f, 9 = i, and 11 = k; but, numbering from the end of the alphabet, we have u = 6, r= 9, and 11 = p. What does this mean? How about f.u., r.i.p., ok? A k.o.? Well, there is always a 0 = O.

Oh, well, now to try to proof read all of this. Check. Looks okay.

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Originally Posted by redietz

I just wanted to report that based on what has happened in the last 48 hours, my estimates have been too optimistic. I think you will see President Trump walk back his Easter idea Monday or Tuesday.

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Well, this beats the heck out of Singer's predictions.

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Originally Posted by LMR

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Originally Posted by redietz

I just wanted to report that based on what has happened in the last 48 hours, my estimates have been too optimistic. I think you will see President Trump walk back his Easter idea Monday or Tuesday.

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Well, this beats the heck out of Singer's predictions.

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I’m starting to think someone needs to start a separate thread where people can post all their latest doomsday predictions. That way each day Kj and redietz can come out of their bunkers and make their latest doomsday announcements. And redietz can do his usual daily criticize Trump thing.

This way if someone wasn’t keeping track of the news for some odd reason (don’t know why because there is nothing much else to do with everything closed) we could always check in on this thread. I think it’s a great idea! It’d keep all Armageddon doomsday predictions to one thread.

Did you see the pictures of the hundreds/thousands of New Yorkers watching the hospital ship come in yesterday? And they wonder why they are dying but the hundreds/thousands.

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Originally Posted by jpfromla

Did you see the pictures of the hundreds/thousands of New Yorkers watching the hospital ship come in yesterday? And they wonder why they are dying but the hundreds/thousands.

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I think people have wrongly decided that if they are outside, they are safe. I see that here in Vegas, where many of the parks are very crowded with people and often they aren't "social distancing", even with kids playing.

I go back to a statement that Dr. Fauci said a week or two ago. "We don't think the virus can be transmitted by being airborne". "We don't think" means they are uncertain and frankly, I am seeing evidence that this may be wrong.

And the numbers continue to go the wrong way. When this thread started, of resolved cases, meaning those that had been confirmed with covid-19 and either recovered or died, the death rate was 9%. 10 days later that number had climbed to 18%. Today it stands at 19% and climbing. This number is climbing because China's laughable results are included. So early on a significant part of the data was made up of China's numbers with the ridiculously low death rate. As the virus has expanded to include numbers from more reliable countries, the death rate among resolved cases is anywhere from 30-40% percent and that includes here in the United States. As real numbers from the rest of the world begin to dwarf China's manipulated data, the death rate grows.

Now, again, this is cases that were tested, confirmed, and resolved, either recovered or died. The hope continues to be that many, many more people contracted the virus and resolved on their own with little or minimal medical treatment and aren't included in that number. But until we start testing, the antibody test to see who may have had the virus and recovered, that hope is just guesswork.

For now, if you test positive and come down with symptoms, the death rate looks to be 19% and that is pretty scary. Scary enough that I am not feeling safe just because I am outside and they "think" the virus can't be transmitted through the air. When I am outside and I am outside everyday, I am steering clear of everyone, assuming they are infected. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by jpfromla

Did you see the pictures of the hundreds/thousands of New Yorkers watching the hospital ship come in yesterday? And they wonder why they are dying but the hundreds/thousands.

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I think people have wrongly decided that if they are outside, they are safe. I see that here in Vegas, where many of the parks are very crowded with people and often they aren't "social distancing", even with kids playing.

I go back to a statement that Dr. Fauci said a week or two ago. "We don't think the virus can be transmitted by being airborne". "We don't think" means they are uncertain and frankly, I am seeing evidence that this may be wrong.

And the numbers continue to go the wrong way. When this thread started, of resolved cases, meaning those that had been confirmed with covid-19 and either recovered or died, the death rate was 9%. 10 days later that number had climbed to 18%. Today it stands at 19% and climbing. This number is climbing because China's laughable results are included. So early on a significant part of the data was made up of China's numbers with the ridiculously low death rate. As the virus has expanded to include numbers from more reliable countries, the death rate among resolved cases is anywhere from 30-40% percent and that includes here in the United States. As real numbers from the rest of the world begin to dwarf China's manipulated data, the death rate grows.

Now, again, this is cases that were tested, confirmed, and resolved, either recovered or died. The hope continues to be that many, many more people contracted the virus and resolved on their own with little or minimal medical treatment and aren't included in that number. But until we start testing, the antibody test to see who may have had the virus and recovered, that hope is just guesswork.

For now, if you test positive and come down with symptoms, the death rate looks to be 19% and that is pretty scary. Scary enough that I am not feeling safe just because I am outside and they "think" the virus can't be transmitted through the air. When I am outside and I am outside everyday, I am steering clear of everyone, assuming they are infected. :rolleyes:

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19%??? so 1 in 5 is what you’re saying?...Gotta admit I have not seen or read that anywhere .....but thanks for the update. It’s always a pleasure to read your positivity on this matter....I guess most everyone should be planning their funeral soon

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

the death rate looks to be 19% and that is pretty scary. Scary enough that I am not feeling safe just because I am outside and they "think" the virus can't be transmitted through the air. When I am outside and I am outside everyday, I am steering clear of everyone, assuming they are infected. :rolleyes:

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Kj, then I would stay in your bunker. I’m surprised you came out of your bunker to make this post. I think the death rate you’re quoting is for those over 85. Are you over 85?

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Originally Posted by Keystone

19%??? so 1 in 5 is what you’re saying?...Gotta admit I have not seen or read that anywhere

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Using data from the world health organization, same as the original post in this thread, although Data from John Hopkins is very similar.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Click on the link. Look at the section of resolved or closed cases at the very top. That is confirmed cases that have either recovered or died.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by jpfromla

Did you see the pictures of the hundreds/thousands of New Yorkers watching the hospital ship come in yesterday? And they wonder why they are dying but the hundreds/thousands.

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I think people have wrongly decided that if they are outside, they are safe. I see that here in Vegas, where many of the parks are very crowded with people and often they aren't "social distancing", even with kids playing.

I go back to a statement that Dr. Fauci said a week or two ago. "We don't think the virus can be transmitted by being airborne". "We don't think" means they are uncertain and frankly, I am seeing evidence that this may be wrong.

And the numbers continue to go the wrong way. When this thread started, of resolved cases, meaning those that had been confirmed with covid-19 and either recovered or died, the death rate was 9%. 10 days later that number had climbed to 18%. Today it stands at 19% and climbing. This number is climbing because China's laughable results are included. So early on a significant part of the data was made up of China's numbers with the ridiculously low death rate. As the virus has expanded to include numbers from more reliable countries, the death rate among resolved cases is anywhere from 30-40% percent and that includes here in the United States. As real numbers from the rest of the world begin to dwarf China's manipulated data, the death rate grows.

Now, again, this is cases that were tested, confirmed, and resolved, either recovered or died. The hope continues to be that many, many more people contracted the virus and resolved on their own with little or minimal medical treatment and aren't included in that number. But until we start testing, the antibody test to see who may have had the virus and recovered, that hope is just guesswork.

For now, if you test positive and come down with symptoms, the death rate looks to be 19% and that is pretty scary. Scary enough that I am not feeling safe just because I am outside and they "think" the virus can't be transmitted through the air. When I am outside and I am outside everyday, I am steering clear of everyone, assuming they are infected. :rolleyes:

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kJ, we saw a video on one of the weekend shows from a front lines NY doctor saying from what he has recently learned is that 99.99% of the transmission is from touching a contaminated surface and then touching your face. Being very diligent with washing your hands (way more than one may have used to) especially after touching anything in public, and being aware of your hands so that you don’t absentmindedly touch your face. Basically he was saying short of someone coughing or sneezing in your face you weren’t going to get it airborne. I dunno it made us feel better.

Listened to that Faucci dude talk for about 15 minutes. HEAVY east coast accent. Can’t trust ANYONE with a thick east coast accent, they would fix that malfunction if they were a trustworthy character.

My daughter just pulled an emergency 16 hour shift as a graduate student radiologist. She is trying to finish grad school, do mandatory clinics (required by the college) and try to do per diem work at the best hospitals in Boston. We do not want her coming home. Her boyfriend lives near the hospital. This virus thing has compromised many different things that we would not have to address ten years ago.

We cannot trust anyone with an east coast accent. Society has reached a new low.

It just depends on how thick the accent is deech. Moderate is acceptable. Most people out east only have a moderate one. Super thick ya gots to get some speech therapy and work on that.

Everyone may have to work on a thick accent. But you state that you cannot trust an individual with one (wherever they live). Still wrong comment.

AS total cases are about to hit a million, total resolved cases, that would be cases with a recovery or death just crossed over 250,000 or a quarter million. That is no small sample size. Of the 256,000 resolved cases, over 50,000 deaths for a death rate rounded to 20%. Still ticking upward.

Now again, we keep being told and the hope is that there are so many more cases that have resolved on their own (recovery) that are not included in these numbers. And I hope and pray that is the case (and think that it probably is), but until we get proof of this with hard data (testing), it is only speculation.




https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

AS total cases are about to hit a million, total resolved cases, that would be cases with a recovery or death just crossed over 250,000 or a quarter million. That is no small sample size. Of the 256,000 resolved cases, over 50,000 deaths for a death rate rounded to 20%. Still ticking upward.

Now again, we keep being told and the hope is that there are so many more cases that have resolved on their own (recovery) that are not included in these numbers. And I hope and pray that is the case (and think that it probably is), but until we get proof of this with hard data (testing), it is only speculation.




https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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You are correct, kewlJ. Throw out the Chinese numbers for the most part. Nobody knows how bad it was. They claimed 3,000 total deaths or something, which is ludicrous. They might have been losing that many per day at the height of it. The thing is, U.S. intelligence would have known all of this.

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Originally Posted by redietz

You are correct, kewlJ. Throw out the Chinese numbers for the most part. Nobody knows how bad it was. They claimed 3,000 total deaths or something, which is ludicrous. They might have been losing that many per day at the height of it. The thing is, U.S. intelligence would have known all of this.

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Yeah, you really have to throw the data from China out. To include it is knowing you are including false data, which defeats the purpose.

But I have been wondering if maybe the resolved cases don't include all people that tested positive and recovered, especially in regards to other countries. What I mean is maybe people tested positive so they are included in the total cases, and recovered at home or whatever, and resumed their lives but were never 'officially' cleared and declared "recovered". I think the criteria is two consecutive negative tests over a certain period. So if someone didn't take those test they would not have been counted in the "recovered" group, even though they have recovered and are back to their normal lives. We can only hope that is the case.

This is one of the problems when you have different countries collecting data in very different manners. You really need some uniformity.

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

AS total cases are about to hit a million, total resolved cases, that would be cases with a recovery or death just crossed over 250,000 or a quarter million. That is no small sample size. Of the 256,000 resolved cases, over 50,000 deaths for a death rate rounded to 20%. Still ticking upward.

Now again, we keep being told and the hope is that there are so many more cases that have resolved on their own (recovery) that are not included in these numbers. And I hope and pray that is the case (and think that it probably is), but until we get proof of this with hard data (testing), it is only speculation.




https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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You are correct, kewlJ. Throw out the Chinese numbers for the most part. Nobody knows how bad it was. They claimed 3,000 total deaths or something, which is ludicrous. They might have been losing that many per day at the height of it. The thing is, U.S. intelligence would have known all of this.

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Kj and redietz, my two favorite domesday forecasters.

But Kj, I think you posted in the wrong thread. Shouldn’t this information have gone in your Armageddon thread on how the world will end?

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Originally Posted by Bob21

Kj and redietz, my two favorite domesday forecasters.

But Kj, I think you posted in the wrong thread. Shouldn’t this information have gone in your Armageddon thread on how the world will end?

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No bob, my comments belong right here in a thread looking at the data. The problem is you can't be serious about anything and just want to try to take a shot at me with everything you post.