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Hey all,
Definitely looking forward to the expert advice from all of you APs who frequent this forum. Here's my question:
I'd like to get 2500 Tier Credits in one day. I have $1K in reel rewards that can be used on slots or video poker.
I'd prefer not to dip into my own money and am willing to sacrifice a bit of EV if it decreases volatility/risk of ruin.
How would you recommend that I go about getting 2500 TC in a single day?
Thank you for your thoughts!
aufvr
Welcome to the forum.
I'm not sure where you live, so perhaps the optimal CET games are not available to you without significant travel.
I will ignore this for now and act as if you can access the best games without issue.
The best way to earn tier credits with the minimal expected loss is video poker. At CET, the two highest paying machines are:
- 99.96% 10-6 Double Double Bonus. I know you can find this at the Rio, but I don't know where else. It's a $1 machine but is 3/5/10 play, so it actually plays like a $3, $5, or $10 machine -- with even higher variance.
- 99.54% Jacks or Better (9/6). There are a number of these at CET properties, but sadly some properties have degraded the number of tiers you can earn by a factor of 2.5 (including ALL of them in Vegas).
- 99.26% Aces and Faces Bonus Poker (8/5 with extra bonuses for quads of J/Q/K), which you can find at the $1/$2/$5 denominations at the Rincon. This is your best bet if you don't want to travel far, and live in SoCal.
I would suggest 99.54% Jacks or Better, provided you can find one near you. You will have a hard time with this if you live in southern CA or Vegas, as these don't exist at Harrah's Rincon or Laughlin, and the tier credits are degraded at all Vegas properties. The closest one you will find in the general area is Lake Tahoe, but those are again 3/5/10 play at the $1 level, which will induce higher variance. You can also do single play at Tahoe for $5/credit.
Your best bet in the west for what you're trying to do is Harrah's Reno. They have $1 and $2 99.54% Jacks or Better, which is optimal for what you are trying to do: http://www.vpfree2.com/casino/harrahs-reno
At $5 video poker, earning 2500 tiers will take 1000 hands, which will take most normal players about 2-2.5 hours.
At $2 video poker, earning 2500 tiers will take 2500 hands, which will take 5-7 hours. This is probably an optimal choice, as it doesn't require a ridiculous number of hours of play, yet cuts down on variance.
At $1 video poker, earning 2500 tiers will take 5000 hands, which will be about 10-13 hours. This has the least variance, but if you go this route, make sure you start early enough to where you will finish before the Total Rewards cutoff time (usually 4am or 6am, depending upon the casino).
Keep in mind that your chances of hitting a royal are 2.5% on 1000 hands, 6.25% on 2500 hands, and 12.5% on 5000 hands. So even if you play $1, you will still likely NOT hit a royal. Therefore, in order to keep variance low, you need to understand your odds without one.
Your return will average 97.56% at 9/6 Jacks or Better without a royal. Feeding $25,000 coin-in into the machine (to earn 2500 tiers), that already means an expected loss of $610 without a royal. Uh oh! Already getting close to your $1k freeplay!
But wait, there's more.
You will only hit either quads/straight flush about once every 404 hands on average!
If you fail to hit quads or better during your play, your average return will be a putrid 91.11% on average! That means you will lose $2222.50 on average in that situation.
This is why you should definitely avoid $5 video poker if your "bankroll" is $1000, as it's very easy to run through $1000 on a bad string of hands, especially given that it can easily happen where you play all 1000 hands without hitting quads once.
The more hands you play, the less variance you will have, as the quads will eventually come, and you have a better shot at a royal.
Now, if you are going to play Aces and Faces, it's a similar story, except you are even more attached to hitting those quads, since they are deducting a credit from the flush & full house payouts.
If you fail to hit quads or better at Aces and Faces, your payout will be 88.87%! This will result in an expected loss of $2782.50.
This game has a lot more variance, as you're really needing to not just hit quads, but hit "good quads" of J/Q/K/A. Failing to hit those better quads will cost you 3.91% on average return (as compared to 9/6 Jacks or Better), which will be $977.50. And that's almost your entire bankroll right there.
So keep in mind that you will probably need to hit quads with the J/Q/K/A during your session (or a royal) if you want to avoid losing that $1000, unless you get a disproportionate number of lower quads.
Conclusion: It will be tough to count on not losing $1000 at some point while earning 2500 tiers at Aces and Faces.
Your best bet is really 9/6 Jacks or Better, as it is least dependent upon specific, low-probability hands in order to keep you from losing a lot.
Hi aufvr. Thanks for joining and for posting. My first question is, does your $1,000 of "reel rewards" (which is free play) earn tier points at the casino where you use it?
Next, realize that you have to put thru $25,000 of coin-in to earn 2,500 tier points if you play video poker, and $12,500 of coin-in if you play slots.
You can get lucky and hit some winners and have no problem doing this. But I think you might want to change your goal: instead of seeking a "goal" of tier points, how about seeking a goal of "actual cash"?
If as you say you don't want to take money out of your own pocket, play the best video poker game you can find (see Dan's post above) and cash out after you play through your $1,000.
You can get lucky. In another post I wrote about how my girlfriend had $200 of free play and came home with more than $600. I have no idea what kind of "points" she put on, but "points" were not the object of playing -- getting cash was.
Thanks to you both!
A question for Dan Druff: video poker usually won't pay out full on royals unless you're "max betting," right? So, if I were to shoot for your "optimal" $2 plays, that would mean I'd need to find a $0.25 full pay machine to pull it off, right? Do those even exist? (I've been unable to find full pay machines at lower than the $1 level, which ends up being $5/play when "max betting").
Anyway, yes, Alan, I may end up just trying to maximize cash rather than tier credits (that's what I usually do).
My main motivation for trying for the 2500 credits in a day this time around is that if I were to do that (and get the 5000 bonus for doing so in a day), it would be enough to take me the rest of the way to diamond (right now I'm midway through platinum).
Another option that I'm considering is just going on a $2500 spending spree in one of their stores (I assume that shopping also qualifies for the bonus 5000 tier credits? It doesn't say otherwise on their webpage?)
I'll likely have a bit of time to play in December, but not before then. This is why I'm trying to come up with more of a "sprint" strategy to complete the rest of my push to diamond.
Any other thoughts on how to achieve diamond--given my situation--are more than appreciated!
Aufvr, I have a question. I just reached Diamond yesterday and get to enjoy what it "gives" until March 2015. In January I'll have to start over as far a building my status for 2015. If you can't play until December why are you even bothering for Diamond. You'll only have that status for 3 months.
I disagree with your values and the method you used.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
1000/40000 - .025 is NOT how to calculate the chances of getting at least 1 royal in N hands played.
Sure, you will say it is close, but your method is wrong at 40k hands played
40k/40k = 1
and no way at all will get always get 1 or more in 40k hands played.
ugh...
here is how it is done using the 40k value too
1 - (39999/40000)^ N
N = number of hands to play
^ = to the power of (the number of times you multiply a number by itself)
using a calculator comes in real handy too as does Excel
here is a probability table I came up with
0.018314723 = about 1 in 55Code:hands no royal at least 1 wrong way
1000 0.975309607 0.024690393 0.025
2500 0.939412329 0.060587671 0.0625
5000 0.882495524 0.117504476 0.125
10000 0.778798349 0.221201651 0.25
20000 0.606526869 0.393473131 0.5
40000 0.367874843 0.632125157 1
80000 0.1353319 0.8646681 2
160000 0.018314723 0.981685277 4
so there are many people playing VP perfectly and having a long long long wait (160,000 hands worth)
for a Royal.
Time to go to the Craps table and hit a 6 point Fire bet instead I say
please thank Alan for his lifetime work,
maybe not about his marriages. I guess a man that is so handsome is not the only reason to remain married to him.
I am only on my first one and did not get married at a Craps table.
yes agree 100%.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
thank you
the wait time for a Royal can be in the hundreds of thousands too.
The math says so
Sally
see you all at Rincon
Mustangsally it is interesting that you mentioned the figure 160,000 hands, because when I had my royal flush drought I went about 160,000 before hitting a royal.
By the way, I've often said it is more likely to hit a six point fire bet at craps than it is to hit a royal. Unfortunately, players don't realize it because you will never have a craps game played as quickly as video poker. It is only the slowness of craps that keeps us from seeing more 6 point fires.
Sally, you are correct, though it doesn't change any of the points I made in my post to aufvr.
I actually knew this but neglected to calculate it the right way for whatever reason.
Depressing that my change at hitting a royal in 20k hands is 39% instead of 50%, though.
You get Diamond until March 31 of the calendar year two years from when you earned it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vpnewbie
So if you earn Diamond any time in 2014, it lasts until 3/31/16.
Diamond perks aren't that great. You definitely don't want to waste $2500 in their highly overpriced stores, just to get diamond. You also don't get bonus tiers for doing so, to my knowledge.Quote:
Originally Posted by aufvr
And yes, I was talking about max betting. But you don't have to adjust the numbers I gave. So if I said "play the $2 machine", I meant "play the $2 machine and max bet, which will be $10/hand".
This is all you get for being Diamond:
- You don't pay the Resort Fees when staying at the hotel
- 20% discount at Gift Shops
- Can exchange RCs for freeplay at the rate of $1 per 175 RCs (lower tiers it's $1 per 200 RCs)
- Priority valet parking (from personal experience, this is hit-and-miss though)
- Free access to "Diamond Lounges" where you can get free snacks and drinks, including alcohol
- Special lines at cashier and restaurants
- Special VIP check-in area
- Ability to use Diamond Room (same as payout room) to buy in to WSOP events
- Status match on WSOP.com to "Diamond", which is 15% rakeback
- Ability to cut in waiting list line at (live) WSOP cash games
- 20% discount on Norwegian Cruises
- Additional benefits if you become a "higher level Diamond"
- Free parking in Atlantic City
-----
So this stuff is nice to have, but none of it is that wonderful, and it equates to very little in monetary value.
Making Diamond will have zero effect on the freeplay or comps you receive. There are Gold members receiving better offers than certain Seven Stars members, for example.
Thank you Dan for that information. It was very thorough. Thanks for taking the time :)
I thought you might just see what you actually did calculate correctly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
change the column heading from "wrong way" to
"expected number of royals" in the data I provided
Bingo!
now the 50% you think is actually
0.5 or 1/2 Royal on average.
now it should be clear what the higher values are.
nice job, you just provided answers to a different question
still waiting for the 6 point Fire Bet at Rincon
maybe this Sat night
have fun all
Sally
Sally, I was at a table recently at Rincon where the 6-pointer was hit. I have been at tables where 5-points were hit four times this year. I was at "the other table" when a 6-pointer was hit about a year ago.
I am yet to see a 6-pointer at Caesars. But I threw a 5-pointer there and one night there were two 5-pointers at my table.
Good morning Dan. You were saying Diamond earned this year is good until 2016? https://www.totalrewards.com/mytotalrewards/#mytr
Unfortunately that link took me only to a sign in page. What are we supposed to see?Quote:
Originally Posted by Vpnewbie
It says that my current tier status is Diamond and is good until March 31, 2015. Dan was saying Diamond is good for 2 yrs.
It always says that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vpnewbie
It will give the right date after March 31 passes.
Cool, thanks Dan. :)
Are we sure there wasn't another change in the rules?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
WOW! This thread has exploded since I last checked; THANK YOU all for your insights.
Before I say some individual "thank yous," first let me answer the BIG question on everybody's mind.
I chatted with the good folks at Total Rewards, and they confirmed that if I were to make diamond, it would last until "March 31st, 2015." They stated that the reason why is because we're currently "playing for next year."
With that said, a few quick thank yous:
THANK YOU to Sally for her clarification on the probabilities; it makes total sense to me!
THANK YOU to Dan for confirming that Sally's math was correct, and also noting that the updated math won't affect my strategy.
THANK YOU also to Dan and Alan for confirming the desirability (or lack thereof) of making diamond. A couple of quick corrections to Dan's list:
- You also get two complimentary tickets to Vegas shows each month as a diamond member. (As a lowly platinum, I get one "buy one, get one" per month to Vegas shows, but if I make diamond, it will become two completely free tickets every month).
- Waiving resort fees is a benefit at the PLATINUM level; that won't be an added benefit if I make it to diamond.
THANK YOU all around. I think you're right that I should consider carefully whether this is something I actually want. I'll confess that one big draw to me is the diamond lounges with complimentary WiFi (they charge us for WiFi in our rooms, which is annoying).
But that's a pretty small benefit compared to all the work it would take to attain diamond.
So, perhaps you're right that it would just make sense to maximize cash instead of maximizing tier credits. I'll think it over, and thank you for pointing out that I shouldn't be so rash to just jump into a diamond-attainment strategy.