win goals and quitting when ahead?

So many times I hear about "win goals" and the need to quit when you're ahead at gambling. How do you set your win goal, and how much do you have to be ahead to walk away?

I think there is a time in all gambling -- casino gambling, poker, whatever -- when a player is ahead and has more money than with what they started with.

In cash poker games, if I double what I started with I leave. Perhaps I bought into a $100 game -- so I leave when I reach $200.

I know one professional video poker player who says he goes into a casino with a "bankroll" of $17,500 and will leave when he reaches his win goal of $2,500. Wow, I thought when he first told me about this -- that's a lot of bankroll for such a small win goal. But the more I thought about it, I came to realize that a $2,500 win with a bankroll of $17,500 represents a win of about 14% and that's a very nice return on your money when banks are paying about 1% or less on Certificates of Deposit. (Of course there is no gamble with the bank and plenty of gamble with the video poker machine.)

So how much do you need to win to walk away? How do you determine your win goal? Or do you even play with a win goal?

I guess my question is: when does he leave if he's losing? A loss limit is much more important than a win goal.

The gamblers I admire the most are the gamblers who can quit while they're ahead. I was at one of the Indian casinos in the San Diego area last night and while I was in the video poker area I saw some of the "regulars" who I have come to know. One of them was just walking around when we spotted each other. We exchanged greetings and then he told me he hit a jackpot and was done for the night. What he had "hit" was quad aces with a "kicker" on a double-double-bonus machine at the $5 denomination and this paid $10,000. Nice jackpot, I thought, and good for him. What was better, I thought, was that he actually "called it quits" and stopped playing. Oh, he'll be back because he is a regular-- but he is taking that money home with him and he will leave the casino "a winner" this time, at least.

Later, I met another regular there. He also had a good run of luck. He told me he came to the casino with $500 and had several big wins playing deuces wild including quad deuces for $1,000 and was dealt four aces on a five-line double-double bonus machine at the 50-cents denomination. At one point, he told me, he had a profit on the night of more than $3,000 -- but it was all gone. "You know how it is," he told me. "I had to keep playing."

Do you have to keep playing? Sure there are players who will get a big win and later will hit even more big wins but big wins don't necessarily keep coming. If they did, the casinos couldn't keep their doors open.

This is why the gamblers I admire the most are the gamblers who know when to get up and leave.

Other than the psychological effects leaving either ahead or behind is meaningless unless you never gamble again. Your return over time will approach the ER of the games you play using whatever strategy you employ. Everything else is just something to talk about.

Arcimede$ I think experienced video poker players and "advantage players" will understand your post, but I'm afraid the general public interested in video poker won't.

So, correct me if I am wrong:

What you are saying is that all video poker play is one continuous session and over your life as a video poker player it doesn't matter when you take a "break" from the play because it is all the same over your entire lifetime of playing.

As an example: A video poker who quits for the day of play when he is up $100 is no different from the "long term player" when he decides to take a bathroom break when he is down $100, because in the end that $100 swing means nothing over the life of that player.

I hope I have that stated correctly.

But most people look at trips to a casino as individual trips -- it could be a day trip or a weekend trip -- and they will look at their results for that trip, and for tax reasons they will look at their results at the end of the year. It is unlikely that they will look at each trip as a segment of their "video poker life."

Perhaps you could explain why they should look at each session as nothing more than a part of their overall video poker life?

Thanks.

Alan, if you go back and read what I wrote you'll see I already answered your questions.

I wish you wouldn't be so cryptic. These are not simple concepts for many people. I would believe that most casino goers don't even know what "ER" means. "Return over time" is also something that is not clear except for those who have read a book or two.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Other than the psychological effects leaving either ahead or behind is meaningless unless you never gamble again. Your return over time will approach the ER of the games you play using whatever strategy you employ. Everything else is just something to talk about.

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Most people in a casino are NOT going to understand that... Especially if they are sitting at a game that does not have a good return. They are most likely sitting at the game because they don't know any better.


Last night, I was playing $2 8/5 Bonus, sitting next to a guy playing 10 line $0.50 Double Super Times Pay. I was dealt 4 aces for $800, he said, wow nice, I did not see you were playing $2. I said, yeah, this is the only machine in the whole place that has full pay Bonus poker for $2. He said "What does that mean."

I kept quiet and continued to play.

Most VP players don't read forums nor would they understand the concept of win goals. They might not even know what "full pay" means. So, this topic itself is beyond most players. Once in awhile you have to assume the people who might read what you write have a certain level of knowledge.

Now, if you don't understand a specific term then I will explain it. However, I think you already know what everything I wrote means.

BTW, what some people think is cryptic others might think as being concise and to the point.

Yes, arcimede$, I understand everything you wrote. I was hoping that if you provide a bit more information that others would also be able to understand your point. I hope that more people will be coming here to learn and to discuss and to ask questions about video poker and other subjects.

Thanks for posting.