Understanding Slotloser’s $200K yearly income comment

“So its clear to me the people making 200k or more a year from machines is less then 6. Based on the jokes I’m reading from people like MaxPen, and that Buffalo Diamond Loser. So there’s no value in sharing information. No point it would be a one way street. We all lose“

Source: https://mobile.twitter.com/freeplayA...10324633370626

I got asked about this comment so I will explain. Let’s assume the $200K is a straight up number, e.g. no points to free slot play, mailers, bounce backs, gifts you would resell on eBay et al, etc. And **NO TEAM PLAY**.

Suppose the person worked 50 weeks out of the year (2 weeks off for a vacation).

Suppose we use theory of CE that a bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush or $1 profit is worth roughly $2 in EV.

Source: “ As has been pointed out by MathProf, the CE profit is approximately half of the expected profit.”
https://bj21.com/category/advantage-...valentanalysis

Now, we could put things into perspective:
1) $200K / 50 is $4K a week
2) $4K a week is roughly the equivalent of finding $8K in EV per week.

Now you see the problem.

Most people can’t calculate the correct EV, much less find $8K of EV each week for 50 weeks. Mickey Crimm tried to calculate the EV of a massive progressive Sequential RF and failed (miserably as expected as in a Crimmtard can do AP level math). Calculating EV for Bonus Slots is hard. However, Slotloser has an advantage because he has access to Par Sheets.

Second, scavengers run into the issue of Bonus Slots being nerfed, e.g. they are not as profitable as before.

I am not agreeing with Slotloser’s opinion, but you need to put that $200K into the proper context.

I said “Straight Up” for a reason.

Slotloser made it known he is on the Family plan or Extended Family plan, e.g. he runs multiple cards. Before the Nerf, Hex 3 with 3 spaces left on Reel 3 was a play for those these card plans, e.g. you see a guy with a stack of player’s cards and running coin in through each card. (Btw, I played with 1 or 2 spaces left on Reel 3). I saw teams taking down every Hex 3 and then driving to another casino.

It’s really easy to make $200K using Team Play on Hex 3 because only 1 of the cards will hit the Reel 3 progressive. It’s the same thing people did with the $10K MHB’s, only one of the cards will show the Major jackpot while the other cards are losers.

Take Thunder Valley for example, you get as much as $400 free play twice a week or $800 a week. One card is $800, two cards is $1,600 and when you get 5 cards, you are at $4K in Free Play a week.

My post was about a Straight Up number. IMO SlotLoser EASILY crunched the $200K bogey on Hex 3 using multiple player’s cards. If SlotLoser has been playing Hex 3 since November 2019 with Par sheets, take the over bet if someone wants to bet if SlotLoser made “$200K” from Hex 3 where the $200K is an all-in number.

I made a joke about your dumbass. Not against Slotloser's claim of 200k a year or whatever. By the way, you had it at 10k a week on hex and now you're at 200k a year. You really have to be one of the biggest idiots out here by far. I'm still waiting for one of your "followers" to come forward and admit it. They might as well be following the north star thru the Sahara desert without a jug of water. The only thing you have is a compilation of bullshit derived from reading shit on the internet and trying to make sense of it.

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

I made a joke about your dumbass. Not against Slotloser's claim of 200k a year or whatever. By the way, you had it at 10k a week on hex and now you're at 200k a year. You really have to be one of the biggest idiots out here by far. I'm still waiting for one of your "followers" to come forward and admit it. They might as well be following the north star thru the Sahara desert without a jug of water. The only thing you have is a compilation of bullshit derived from reading shit on the internet and trying to make sense of it.

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information only help shark, not wannabe, cannot help losers. I get portion wannabe money eventually.

Braindead, ex-crement is at it again. This dude's IQ is lower than his age. Now he's trying to tell us that EV cashes for only half it's value. Fucking stupid. It's not just regular stupid either. We're talking stupid to the 10th power.

And the braindead motherfucker thinks showing the odds of a sequential royal without a strategy shift is wrong. What a fucking idiot. But what's worse is he is trying to tell us that he solved the problem of the 150K sequential. He did no such thing. He never gave a true answer, just a ballpark number. Piece of shit.

And how did he perform with the keno problem I put up? He ran for the hills like the dirty little coward he is. He hid for days and only poked his head up when he thought the coast was clear. The coast ain't clear, ex-crement. You chickenshitted out BECAUSE YOU COULDN'T DO THE MATH.

EX-CREMENT CANNOT DO AP MATH. HE USES FANCY WORDS TO COVER FOR HIS LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF GAMBLING MATH.

And here's something else that is an easy read on him. He's out-competed. The AP's in his neighborhood have him pushed to the rail. He's to chickenshit to play anything but a low roller nut play because:

Ex-Ap'S LOW BANKROLL FITS HIS LOW IQ.

On the subject of royal progressives. I'm going to give it it's own thread. But, ex-crement, since you "know so much" about royal progressives....could you tell us the three different strategies that AP's use on royal flush video poker progressives?

There are actually 3 distinct strategy charts that an AP may choose to use on a lone royal progressive.

EX-CREMENT, CAN YOU NAME THE THREE DIFFERENT STRATEGIES?

Let me make sure I'm following here... Max, Mickey, and I don't know what we are talking about but the troll on twitter who changes races and sexually every 3 days with a bunch of highschool football players following him is the bees knees? If that's the premise it doesn't even warrant a response.

Why do you insist on making the simple complicated? Is it to appear intelligent?

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Originally Posted by radicalwin

Why do you insist on making the simple complicated? Is it to appear intelligent?

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You have two people who playing in the same casino during the year. Person B gets lucky and gets the $10K Major drop 3 times while chasing the Minor MHB’s. Suppose the Majors totaled $29K. Does that mean Person B is $29K better than Person A?

You can’t fix stupid.

I am trying to educate those with an open mind. You never judge something base on their actual winnings so making $200K is irrelevant. You judge someone on their ability to (A) find +$EV and (B) convert +$EV into real cash.

$200K earnings is roughly equal to finding $400K in $EV. Most scavengers know a play is +EV, but can’t tell you how much that play is worth.

So I’m not surprised by your comments. It was never simple to begin with.

There is variance involved but the idea that the actual value is half the expectation is unmitigatedly stupid. There will be times you cash for less and times you cash for more.

Ex-clement the more you write the more you expose your incompetence.

C’mon and tell us how much you know about video poker progressive strategy. Explain the various strategies to us like we are 3rd graders. You’d like to do it to rub my nose in it. But you can’t do it, can you? Because you don’t know anything about it. You are ignorant as the day is long about it.

Stings like a bitch, don’t it?



So I’m not surprised by your comments. It was never simple to begin with.[/QUOTE]

You overcomplicate the math on determining the amount of ev.

You incorrectly state $200k in earning is equal to finding $400k in EV. Are you gambling away half you earnings on -EV? If a play is worth $10, it is worth $10. It is not worth 5.

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Originally Posted by radicalwin

You overcomplicate the math on determining the amount of ev.

You incorrectly state $200k in earning is equal to finding $400k in EV. Are you gambling away half you earnings on -EV? If a play is worth $10, it is worth $10. It is not worth 5.

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Dude is a tard,,,,,nuff said.

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Originally Posted by Ex-AP

I said “Straight Up” for a reason.

Slotloser made it known he is on the Family plan or Extended Family plan, e.g. he runs multiple cards. Before the Nerf, Hex 3 with 3 spaces left on Reel 3 was a play for those these card plans, e.g. you see a guy with a stack of player’s cards and running coin in through each card. (Btw, I played with 1 or 2 spaces left on Reel 3). I saw teams taking down every Hex 3 and then driving to another casino.

It’s really easy to make $200K using Team Play on Hex 3 because only 1 of the cards will hit the Reel 3 progressive. It’s the same thing people did with the $10K MHB’s, only one of the cards will show the Major jackpot while the other cards are losers.

Take Thunder Valley for example, you get as much as $400 free play twice a week or $800 a week. One card is $800, two cards is $1,600 and when you get 5 cards, you are at $4K in Free Play a week.

My post was about a Straight Up number. IMO SlotLoser EASILY crunched the $200K bogey on Hex 3 using multiple player’s cards. If SlotLoser has been playing Hex 3 since November 2019 with Par sheets, take the over bet if someone wants to bet if SlotLoser made “$200K” from Hex 3 where the $200K is an all-in number.

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Ex-crement doesn't know the Hexes as well as he would like you to believe he does. He says the multi-card play is playing when the middle column is 3 away. Yep, it sure was. On a lot of machines to. But there were some machines that had the highest paying chip in them. They were a play at 4 away. A lot of those machines got "nerfed." And just WTF does "nerf" mean? It means they put a lower paying chip in the machine. That's all.

Anyone that's been around knows that IGT usually has a half dozen different chips for machines usually running from 85% to 97%. It's up to each individual casino which chip they use. When they change the payback nothing got "nerfed." They simply went to a lower paying game.

When a casino changes the payback of a machine they don't send memos around to their competition that they better do the same. The hexes got cut where they were getting a ton of action from AP's working freeplay.

I recently got to play a hex for the first time. I had been holding out until I found one that was 3 away. This casino didn't get pounded by AP's. I made 11K spins on the 80 level and finished a $387 winner. I didn't hit anything extroardinary. But I found out a lot of things about the game. I can see where playing them from 3 away on the right machines is strong for running action to get freeplay.

I made 8300 hundred spins the first night. All those spins were with the middle row being 3 away. The 8300 spins didn't budge it.

I had to get some sleep. Early the next morning some lady was on the machine. I went and found another machine that was 3 away. I made 2700 spins to get it to advance to 2 away.

At that point I was $387 ahead on my play from being 3 away. It only took 987 spins to move it to 1 away. Then 650 spins to advance it to the top.

I was actually pissed that the top two levels came off so easy. I was looking forward to playing for awhile with the damn thing wide open. The 7 and 8 levels have to be better payback than the 6 level.

They dont have to change chips any longer. Techs can chage the payback percentage and even change game types from a pull up screen on the game cabinet. You'll see them do this with video poker as well.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

They dont have to change chips any longer. Techs can chage the payback percentage and even change game types from a pull up screen on the game cabinet. You'll see them do this with video poker as well.

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Either way they lowered the payback.

Since freeplayAP may have the Hex3 par sheet and tweeted that 573 is 8% RTP on the base game then 7163 ways would be breakeven/100% RTP on the base game if ways have linear payback on this game:

It doesn't sound like an unreasonable RTP for 7163 ways.

You have to factor in the prizes at the top

In some states like Maryland only the Lottery can change the payback percentage. The techs can't there.

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Originally Posted by radicalwin

You have to factor in the prizes at the top

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At 7163 ways some of the brackets will be close to the top and you will probably notice that you don't have much drop while traveling to the top to collect the prize(s) - that's a lot of real estate (obviously you would want the center bracket's number of steps to the top to be a factor as well). Would you not take a 7163 way board under certain circumstances (again keeping in mind that some of the brackets would have to be close to the top or you couldn't get that many ways in the 1st place) ? If you decide to answer this question please don't include the circumstances if you don't want to.

Besides the number of ways on the lower left, the orbs up top that have BONUS in them should be payed attention to. They appear mostly in the 1 and 5 columns but sometimes appear in the 2 and 4 columns.

You can also get into the bonus round by catching the three BONUS symbols on reels 2, 3, and 4. You have a much much better chance of doing it when the middle row is 3 away than you do when 4 away. I think this is one of the keys between 4 away and 3 away. And of course, the chances are much better when the middle column is 2 away or 1 away.

I had went into the bonus round about 10 times before I thought, damn, I should be recording it. In the bonus round I had caught the white kitty twice out of about 10 shots. So I started recording.

I got to the bonus round 22 times. The return was 1995 units. That's an average of 91 units per round. I caught the white kitty 4 times.

So I caught that white kitty 6 times in 12, 492 spins. You get the money in the meter when you catch it. The meter resets but the middle column doesn't reset. You still continue to play.

In the pic you can see the orbs with BONUS in them. I didn't play this configuration. I just took a pic of it for reference.

I've got 200 bonuses on file and I'm at 71.28 bets per bonus.

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I've got 200 bonuses on file and I'm at 71.28 bets per bonus.

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Thanks. Goes to show the BONUS represents a big chunk of payback.

I got to the bonus 5 times out of the 22 total by catching the 3 BONUS symbols in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th columns. I was playing the middle column at 3 away. Getting to the BONUS this way when playing a 4 away will be much harder. With a 5 away or 6 away you can just about forget it. The reason is the BONUS symbol covers 3 regular symbols.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

I got to the bonus 5 times out of the 22 total by catching the 3 BONUS symbols in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th columns. I was playing the middle column at 3 away. Getting to the BONUS this way when playing a 4 away will be much harder. With a 5 away or 6 away you can just about forget it. The reason is the BONUS symbol covers 3 regular symbols.

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Squeezed it in there on column 2 ;-). It's possible that the 71.28 unit and 91 unit delta could be a result of different denominations possibly having different average bonus round values (and that different denominations and/or different denominational compositions were played for the Crimm and Prozema data sets). Or maybe it's just variance or a combination of both variance and unit denomination.

Thanks for posting this stuff guys much appreciated.

I don't think the bet level matters but since you are interested:

0.8 - 94 events - 73.63 bets per
1.6 - 58 - 62.84
2.4 - 18 - 70.65
3.2 - 4 - 129.05
4 - 24 - 78.23
8 - 1 - 24.19

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I don't think the bet level matters but since you are interested:

0.8 - 94 events - 73.63 bets per
1.6 - 58 - 62.84
2.4 - 18 - 70.65
3.2 - 4 - 129.05
4 - 24 - 78.23
8 - 1 - 24.19

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This helped me find a math error. Its actually 71.64 bets per bonus with 199 observed. Hope you didn't pass up any winners based on that half bet.

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Originally Posted by Prozema

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I don't think the bet level matters but since you are interested:

0.8 - 94 events - 73.63 bets per
1.6 - 58 - 62.84
2.4 - 18 - 70.65
3.2 - 4 - 129.05
4 - 24 - 78.23
8 - 1 - 24.19

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This helped me find a math error. Its actually 71.64 bets per bonus with 199 observed. Hope you didn't pass up any winners based on that half bet.

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Yup, looks like it's all due to variance based on this data. Thanks Prozema.

For those that don't know how the ways work. The Gold Brackets in each column, after they have reached the top, reset to the 3rd level. Then they start advancing upward again as you are playing. From the 3rd level they are 6 away from the top.

It's easy to determine exactly what level a column is at. Just count the symbols underneath the bracket. If there are 3 symbols underneath its on the 3rd level (6 away from the top). If there are 5 symbols underneath it's at the 5th level (4 away from the top).

On the lower left side you can see the number of ways getting bigger as the brackets advance upward. If all 5 columns are at reset then there are 243 ways to hit the line pays 3X3X3X3X3 = 243.

In the pic you can see on the lower left it says 1200 ways. Then look at where the columns are at.

1st is at 5
2nd is at 4
3rd is at 3
4th is at 5
5th is at 4

5X4X3X5X4 = 1200

The maximum number of ways possible is 8X8X8X8X8 = 32,768

I take an even lower number of ways under certain circumstances. I would enthusiastically jump on 7163 wats.

Just for fun I tracked the landing position of 1260 shoes.

157 of them landed in reel 1
481 landed in reel 2
8 landed in reel 3
475 landed in reel 4
139 landed in reel 5

Is there any way to change this thread to hex 3? It's titled very poorly.

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Originally Posted by Prozema

Is there any way to change this thread to hex 3? It's titled very poorly.

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I think only Dan Druff can change the name.

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Originally Posted by Prozema

Just for fun I tracked the landing position of 1260 shoes.

157 of them landed in reel 1
481 landed in reel 2
8 landed in reel 3
475 landed in reel 4
139 landed in reel 5

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Reels 2 and 4 move the fastest. Then reels 1 and 5. Reel 3 moves very slow. It appears that 1 and 5 move at the same speed....and 2 and 4 move at the same speed.

Also, when the horseshoe appears on a reel it can advance it more than one level. Sometimes it will advance two levels.

And I also saw it move 3 levels once and 4 levels once. That occurred on reel 2.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Prozema

Is there any way to change this thread to hex 3? It's titled very poorly.

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I think only Dan Druff can change the name.

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The tyranny! lol.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Prozema

Just for fun I tracked the landing position of 1260 shoes.

157 of them landed in reel 1
481 landed in reel 2
8 landed in reel 3
475 landed in reel 4
139 landed in reel 5

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Reels 2 and 4 move the fastest. Then reels 1 and 5. Reel 3 moves very slow. It appears that 1 and 5 move at the same speed....and 2 and 4 move at the same speed.

Also, when the horseshoe appears on a reel it can advance it more than one level. Sometimes it will advance two levels.

And I also saw it move 3 levels once and 4 levels once. That occurred on reel 2.

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I have had the shoe advance 3 levels on the middle reel 3 times now. Once to payout the black cat and twice to remain one away.
Once it remained one away for about 4k spins

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Prozema

Just for fun I tracked the landing position of 1260 shoes.

157 of them landed in reel 1
481 landed in reel 2
8 landed in reel 3
475 landed in reel 4
139 landed in reel 5

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Reels 2 and 4 move the fastest. Then reels 1 and 5. Reel 3 moves very slow. It appears that 1 and 5 move at the same speed....and 2 and 4 move at the same speed.

Also, when the horseshoe appears on a reel it can advance it more than one level. Sometimes it will advance two levels.

And I also saw it move 3 levels once and 4 levels once. That occurred on reel 2.

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I have had the shoe advance 3 levels on the middle reel 3 times now. Once to payout the black cat and twice to remain one away.
Once it remained one away for about 4k spins

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This one jumped 4 or 5 on me to give me two bonuses back to back. It was reel 1 or 5... I forget. Regardless of all that, I've not tracked the movement per shoe but if the line was set at 1.1 I would take the under.

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Originally Posted by Prozema

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Reels 2 and 4 move the fastest. Then reels 1 and 5. Reel 3 moves very slow. It appears that 1 and 5 move at the same speed....and 2 and 4 move at the same speed.

Also, when the horseshoe appears on a reel it can advance it more than one level. Sometimes it will advance two levels.

And I also saw it move 3 levels once and 4 levels once. That occurred on reel 2.

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I have had the shoe advance 3 levels on the middle reel 3 times now. Once to payout the black cat and twice to remain one away.
Once it remained one away for about 4k spins

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This one jumped 4 or 5 on me to give me two bonuses back to back. It was reel 1 or 5... I forget. Regardless of all that, I've not tracked the movement per shoe but if the line was set at 1.1 I would take the under.

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The best way to track spins on the 1 and 5 and 2 and 4 reels might be to record the number of spins it takes to move it from the 3rd level to the top.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Prozema

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

I have had the shoe advance 3 levels on the middle reel 3 times now. Once to payout the black cat and twice to remain one away.
Once it remained one away for about 4k spins

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This one jumped 4 or 5 on me to give me two bonuses back to back. It was reel 1 or 5... I forget. Regardless of all that, I've not tracked the movement per shoe but if the line was set at 1.1 I would take the under.

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The best way to track spins on the 1 and 5 and 2 and 4 reels might be to record the number of spins it takes to move it from the 3rd level to the top.

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I started counting spins on each line count and it's tedious.

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Originally Posted by Prozema

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Prozema

This one jumped 4 or 5 on me to give me two bonuses back to back. It was reel 1 or 5... I forget. Regardless of all that, I've not tracked the movement per shoe but if the line was set at 1.1 I would take the under.

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The best way to track spins on the 1 and 5 and 2 and 4 reels might be to record the number of spins it takes to move it from the 3rd level to the top.

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I started counting spins on each line count and it's tedious.

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That's what I'm thinking.

The laughing black cat can come in the bonus round I noticed. Not just the base game.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

Since freeplayAP may have the Hex3 par sheet and tweeted that 573 is 8% RTP on the base game then 7163 ways would be breakeven/100% RTP on the base game if ways have linear payback on this game:

It doesn't sound like an unreasonable RTP for 7163 ways.

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Originally Posted by radicalwin

You have to factor in the prizes at the top

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by radicalwin

I would enthusiastically jump on 7163 wats.

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Ok, so you wouldn't have to factor in the prizes at the top at 7163 ways (the prizes are never less than 10 times the betting unit size for one thing). As I originally stated.

Correct

I will be standing the AP community on its head with a special announcement soon. Stayed tuned in.

I recorded the number of spins to run the 1st reel from 3rd position to the top. It took 2069 spins to run it up 4 times. That's an average of 517 spins. Reel 5 would probably be the same.

I'm thinking reels 2 and 4 only take about 200 spins to run to the top. It would advance about every 45 spins average but sometimes it advanced 2 levels or more. That would mean finding the BONUS symbol above reels 2 and/or 4 is much more valuable than 1 and 5.

It seems to take an average of 120 spins to get a laughing black cat (kind of like an ace side count in BJ).

I might have a worse chip than MC. I've got between 244 and 247 to move 2 & 4 from reset to the top. That's with a shoe landing anywhere every 15.52 spins. I'm not 100% sure that each shoe lands with the same frequency depending on how high the reels are. It seems that IGT calls the symbols blocking view or the reels as ghosts. I don't know how long the strips are and I suspect they are pretty long so I'm thinking adding a couple of visible spots / removing a few ghosts doesn't matter much but I'm just not sure.

How are you dealing with the drop on the main game? Form what I have both excluding and including the orbs the payback improves when the ways count increases. Looks like 13,000 and 3,000 are breakpoints depending on whether you include or exclude orbs and how valuable the orb is. I'm sure I'm skewed to more valuable orbs. I don't do a lot of spinning if I'm one away from a 10x orb. With that bias, the real "with orb" breakpoint might be 4,000 or 5,000-ish.

I picked up some chatter on gambling twitter from a couple of hex players about there being an 85.07% version and an 86.03% version. And that the CET properties were all 85.07%. That's a no brainer. Their 15's are all 85%'ers. They got the lowest paying slots of anybody.

The other day I was told by someone that the best hex game is 96%. So it looks like the hex game probably has a half dozen different paybacks from 85% to 96%, just like the 15's.

Knowing the drop as a function of ways, in conjunction with Mickey's post regarding the cost to move an outside reel and cost to move an even reel pretty much makes the Hex3 analysis mature IMHO. One approach is to use Twitter user FreeplayAP's 573 ways = 8% RTP Twitter post (and assume he has the par sheet) to come up with the drop. So we have 573 ways/8% or for each 71.6 ways gained you will make a 1% climb in RTP. So we know that (per Mickey's post) the minimum value is 3x3x3x3x3 or 243 ways. A 1 unit bracket movement on reel 1 with all reels at the bottom (3 position) will result in a way gain of 4x3x3x3x3-3x3x3x3x3=81 ways or roughly 1 percent. But suppose we have a starting configuration of 4x5x4x3x4 or 960 ways. And, as before, reel 1 gets a horseshoe and bumps up one spot resulting in a configuration of 5x5x4x3x4 or 1200 ways. Well now a 1 spot movement of reel 1 results in a way gain of 240 ways (1200-960) or gain in RTP of 3.4% (240/71.6). That's right, not all 1 spot reel 1 movements are created equal are they (and the same goes for any reel) ? So, basically, you can calculate the drop for any configuration and use that as the baseline drop (dynamically re-calculating it each time you get a horseshoe if you wish) to decide if it is a good entry point based on the cash (non-bonus) prizes at the top and 71 unit return of the bonus (per Prozema's post) if those are present as a top prize. And of course you can calculate your base game RTP for any configuration.

Aw fuck it, I'm just gonna assume a drop of 50%, J/K ;-)

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I might have a worse chip than MC. I've got between 244 and 247 to move 2 & 4 from reset to the top. That's with a shoe landing anywhere every 15.52 spins. I'm not 100% sure that each shoe lands with the same frequency depending on how high the reels are. It seems that IGT calls the symbols blocking view or the reels as ghosts. I don't know how long the strips are and I suspect they are pretty long so I'm thinking adding a couple of visible spots / removing a few ghosts doesn't matter much but I'm just not sure.

How are you dealing with the drop on the main game? Form what I have both excluding and including the orbs the payback improves when the ways count increases. Looks like 13,000 and 3,000 are breakpoints depending on whether you include or exclude orbs and how valuable the orb is. I'm sure I'm skewed to more valuable orbs. I don't do a lot of spinning if I'm one away from a 10x orb. With that bias, the real "with orb" breakpoint might be 4,000 or 5,000-ish.

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The only stat on the payback I have is 10,926 spins playing at 3 away. I finished 482 units ahead. I caught the white kitty in the BONUS 6 times so that was probably an overperformance.

The game bounces back and forth between negative (when number of ways are low) and positive (when numbers of ways are high).

The internet chatter is guys were traveling the country to play them at 3 away. And freeplay was a big part of the play. The game is definitely made to run action. It could be that 3 away is overall breakeven or slightly positive.

From my LIMITED experience I think if you are not counting mail you'd much rather find reel 3 at 7 up (2 away). Good luck finding that though. People are jumping them much earlier.

I've got the drop by line count for just under 14,000 spins. It's enough to see the pattern but not enough to be precise.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

Knowing the drop as a function of ways, in conjunction with Mickey's post regarding the cost to move an outside reel and cost to move an even reel pretty much makes the Hex3 analysis mature IMHO. One approach is to use Twitter user FreeplayAP's 573 ways = 8% RTP Twitter post (and assume he has the par sheet) to come up with the drop. So we have 573 ways/8% or for each 71.6 ways gained you will make a 1% climb in RTP. So we know that (per Mickey's post) the minimum value is 3x3x3x3x3 or 243 ways. A 1 unit bracket movement on reel 1 with all reels at the bottom (3 position) will result in a way gain of 4x3x3x3x3-3x3x3x3x3=81 ways or roughly 1 percent. But suppose we have a starting configuration of 4x5x4x3x4 or 960 ways. And, as before, reel 1 gets a horseshoe and bumps up one spot resulting in a configuration of 5x5x4x3x4 or 1200 ways. Well now a 1 spot movement of reel 1 results in a way gain of 240 ways (1200-960) or gain in RTP of 3.4% (240/71.6). That's right, not all 1 spot reel 1 movements are created equal are they (and the same goes for any reel) ? So, basically, you can calculate the drop for any configuration and use that as the baseline drop (dynamically re-calculating it each time you get a horseshoe if you wish) to decide if it is a good entry point based on the cash (non-bonus) prizes at the top and 71 unit return of the bonus (per Prozema's post) if those are present as a top prize. And of course you can calculate your base game RTP for any configuration.

Aw fuck it, I'm just gonna assume a drop of 50%, J/K ;-)

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It's almost certain the highly educated mensa member you referenced plays the game more than me but I'd take the over all day on that 573 ways RTP.

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Originally Posted by Prozema

It's almost certain the highly educated mensa member you referenced plays the game more than me but I'd take the over all day on that 573 ways RTP.

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That over's a good bet. However I doubt you have gathered much data on the drop at 573 ways ;-).

I have a little data on low numbers.

I've taken 243 spins below 1000 lines and it dropped me 66% excluding orbs / 50.5% including orbs.
I suspect I ran good because I have 658 spins between 1000 lines and 1999. The machine dropped me 71.3% excluding orbs / 26.2% including orbs at that level.

For obvious reasons expanding that data set is low on my priority list.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I have a little data on low numbers.

I've taken 243 spins below 1000 lines and it dropped me 66% excluding orbs / 50.5% including orbs.
I suspect I ran good because I have 658 spins between 1000 lines and 1999. The machine dropped me 71.3% excluding orbs / 26.2% including orbs at that level.

For obvious reasons expanding that data set is low on my priority list.

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Public service announcement. Most of what is posted above is wrong. If you look at the specific par for this game. Even with a 10million spin sample size the manufacturer only listed it as 75 percent certainty. If you want to get to 95 percent go to 100million spins

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I have a little data on low numbers.

I've taken 243 spins below 1000 lines and it dropped me 66% excluding orbs / 50.5% including orbs.
I suspect I ran good because I have 658 spins between 1000 lines and 1999. The machine dropped me 71.3% excluding orbs / 26.2% including orbs at that level.

For obvious reasons expanding that data set is low on my priority list.

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Thanks Prozema.

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Originally Posted by Advantageplay

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I have a little data on low numbers.

I've taken 243 spins below 1000 lines and it dropped me 66% excluding orbs / 50.5% including orbs.
I suspect I ran good because I have 658 spins between 1000 lines and 1999. The machine dropped me 71.3% excluding orbs / 26.2% including orbs at that level.

For obvious reasons expanding that data set is low on my priority list.

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Public service announcement. Most of what is posted above is wrong. If you look at the specific par for this game. Even with a 10million spin sample size the manufacturer only listed it as 75 percent certainty. If you want to get to 95 percent go to 100million spins

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From the stuff you're saying in your other post you are looking at the 85.07% chip set.
You're reading the sheet wrong.

With 95% confidence-Max
10K handle pulls is 74.840% low and 95.299% high

Once you get into the 1million handle pull range you're in the +/-1% confidence value Min&Max

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Advantageplay

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Prozema

I have a little data on low numbers.

I've taken 243 spins below 1000 lines and it dropped me 66% excluding orbs / 50.5% including orbs.
I suspect I ran good because I have 658 spins between 1000 lines and 1999. The machine dropped me 71.3% excluding orbs / 26.2% including orbs at that level.

For obvious reasons expanding that data set is low on my priority list.

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Public service announcement. Most of what is posted above is wrong. If you look at the specific par for this game. Even with a 10million spin sample size the manufacturer only listed it as 75 percent certainty. If you want to get to 95 percent go to 100million spins

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None of it is wrong. I told you the exact results of very few observed spins. Said another way, I just told you what I did and how the machine responded. The reason I included the spin count was so everyone would know how weak the data point is... I never said it was accurate representation of how the machine is programmed.

If there is some way to figure out the drop for any given line count from that par, I'm all ears... But I already know the answer to that questions so I won't hold my breath.

Probably 89-91% RTP but we played 4200+ ways profitably before the latest updates.

You guys are smart.
I think I'm too far behind to adapt.
Time to Retire.
These types of machines are everywhere though.
I almost threw up when I walked through the Horseshoe the other day.