Don’t Trust slotloser FKA FreeplayAP when it comes to (VP) Math or Probabilities
Mickey Crimm the homeless change thief turned Scavenger and AP wannabe made this tweet:
“6/5 Bonus Poker is a 96.87% game. Royal odds are 40,236. Sequential odds are 120 X 40,236 = 4,828,320. Reversible Sequential is half that, 2,414,160. A $150,000 one-way sequential adds 2.4%, reversible adds 4.8%. So either 99.27% or 101.67%.“
Anyone with high enough IQ will spot MC’s mistake: probability of a $150K STF > probability of $1K RF. MC in his dumb analysis claims the probability of any RF (inclusive of SRF) is identical and this is patently false.
FreeAP clearly doesn’t have enough IQ points in either logic or probabilities since he missed MC’s glaring error based on FreeAP’s tweet:
“And some people think you don’t understand the math“
So it’s clear to everyone in my network FreeAP is more fiction than reality.
If you had used functions:
Y(1) = Beta1*(RF) + Beta2*(SF) + Beta3*(Quads) * Beta4*(FH) + Beta5*(FL) + Beta6*(ST) + Beta7*(Trips) + Beta8*(2 Pair) + Beta9*(Hi Pair)
You would get Y(1) to be 96.8687% and you can confirm this with Wizard of Odds
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...s/bonus-poker/
Once you confirm the base function is correct, then you adjust the function for the SRF.
For the record, as I have been saying, MC is not an AP and cannot do AP-level math.
The correct answer for the 2-way SRF $150K+ Jackpot is over 104%, much higher than dumb MC’s assertion of 101.67%. MC was WAY OFF as expected of a hicktard trying be an AP.
My estimate was roughly 6% higher than base of 96.87% so I got 102.87%, which is still wrong but not as bad as MC’s 101.67% number. I can’t code so I had to create algorithms and use Newtonian approximation so I was using an estimate and needed to adjust for convexity.
Btw, Effen got the correct answer via an VP analyzer (e.g. coding):
“The ROI with perfect play is 104.02%, but the variance is 9869.44 versus just 21.28 for ordinary 6/5 BP. Still, many professional APs have a big enough bankroll to take a shot at this. The problem is that a nickel a hand is often not worth it to the APs who can afford the variance.“
Source: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...royal-jackpot/
Moral of the post: Don’t drink Mickey Crimm’s kool aid.
And 3 ... 2 ... 1 watch MC and MC fantards post in response.
