Nice tweet verifying the equity in Hexbreaker 3

Tweet is here: https://mobile.twitter.com/DarkStarV...60999810273280

“ I'm working on a theory with this game. Ways to win matters more than hitting the progressive. I've had single spins pay more than the progressive”

In the tweet, it shows a photo of Hex 3 with 28,672 WTW (ways to win).

Here’s what I stated earlier about Hex 3:
“Your “equity” is the number of paylines as well as how many rows above the baseline of 3 rows for each respective column. ...

The math is very challenging as your average cost per milestone is dynamic and decreases as the rows increase for that particular column. Basically, the average cost per milestone is not static like typical milestone based bonus games.”

Source (or “sauce”): https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ice-bonus-game

A tweet by a guy in July confirmed my views in February. The bad thing is Hex 3 is getting nerfed in my neck of the woods. It was a really good game of you understood the equity. What I am saying is the easy money is gone. Unfortunately, I cannot share how to ID what changes were made to Hex 3 (in my area) that was part of the nerf.

I wasn’t the only guy to figure out Hex 3; I was the first one (on VCT) that documented this game and spelled out the equity. Just about anyone was welcome to inbox me or ask questions on that thread.

WTW’s comes in two flavor current and next spin; next spin WTW is valuable if one of the milestones was recently hit.

The game starts with 243 WTW (3^5)

The photo in the tweet is (8^4 * 7) WTW

There were many plays for Hex 3. Obviously if the “Bonus” or “Progressive” is one milestone away, you should play it. The market in my neck of the woods is destroyed for the “Progressive” or column / reel 3 due to the nerfing. A lot of hustlers took huge losses (bad beats in their eyes) because they never figured the game out.

Hex 3 pays left to right AS WELL AS right to left. So it was very simple to see how the game got nerfed (not telling as this is very sensitive info and strictly on a “needs to know basis”).

I learned to work with exponents in Pre-Cal in 11th grade; I may have worked with exponents in Algebra or Trig, but Pre-Cal crushed me. Here is a nice link if you want to refresh yourself on exponents.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponentiation

Background: My group works on “game design” to find exploits in bonus machines.

Let there be a function y = f(x) to explain a certain phenomenon in Hex 3.

Then, we get this function y = x^n (which reads x to the n power, e.g. exponential math)

Then we substitute the product R(1) * R(2) * R(3) * R(4) * R(5) for n
where R is a positive integer with a flood value of 3 (the reset value) and a cap value of 9
think of of R is some integer value: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9

So you get this function:
y = x^(R1*R2*R3*R4*R5)

As a general comment, as the “R” values increase, your WTW explodes!!! because it’s non-linear, it’s exponential!!! We all see this. The catch is once a R hits 9, it resets to 3. This is part of our approach to understand the game design.

The “delta” or rate of change in each R is not the same; R2 & R4 moves at similar speeds, R3 moves the slowest, etc. This is a stochastic process due to different “delta’s”. In plain English, when you approach a random Hex 3 machine, the R’s should be all over the place ... there should be no well defined pattern.

Now you have hustlers and you ought to see non-random results: they play certain WTWs but not other WTWs, usually they quit after a bonus in one of the R’s. The question is: WHERE DOES THE MARKET CLEAR?

It turns out the math is too hard for the average hustler so they only go after the easy plays. Then the hustlers figure out via empirical results when they should start chasing R3.

Before the casinos shut down for the Wuhan Virus, there was a waiting list to play the game at an unnamed casino. When one hustler played, the other hustlers would watch and learn. Today, there is no waiting listing and the “fat lady (who sings)”, the Johnny come late hustlers, are losing their rear ends.

Do you think these people took careful notes during their Pre-Cal classes? Do you think these hustler know what an exponential function with five factors is?

Since the delta’s for the R’s are not the same, you cannot have a generic, catch-all rule of play if WTW is above some value.

Our group liked working on Hex 3 and hope IGT uses this model for new bonus games ... working with dynamic cost per milestone was very challenging. Hex 3 had some of the biggest market failures for a bonus game based on my experience.

Market failure: https://www.tutor2u.net/economics/re...market-failure

Information asymmetry was the biggest reason why so many hustlers walked by the non-obvious plays. So it is reason #3

“Imperfect information or information failure means that merit goods are under-produced while demerit goods are over-produced or over-consumed“

You are absolutely correct that I have never written anything about Hex 3. Your implication in pointing that out is you think I'm not capable of analyzing that game. Well, even tho I have no experience with pre-cal, market failure or stochastic whatever the fuck, I guarantee you I would have no trouble analyzing the game.

From your own writing its clear that the other hustlers in California put you on the rail. They out competed you on the game.

As you have written the game came out last December. I had a heart attack the month before that put me out of action. Thats the reason I haven't analyzed and/or written about the game.