Quit While You're Ahead... Revisited
In our Big Casino Wins and Jackpots thread Rob wrote this, which I think should be discussed separately:
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rob.Singer
Of course we all know that vp players are ahead at some point in their visit on the majority of those visits. That's what the catalyst was for me as I developed and played my goal-oriented strategy. Critics have and will blindly say "b-b-b-but, no one knows when they're ahead at their highest point, and there's the possibility of getting ahead even further". Still other misguided souls claim how "vp play is all one lifelong event, so you might as well smile as the math snatches the profits right out of your pocket because it knows if you're winning more than you should".
VP players get so confused by simplicity, and for some reason many of then can't talk about it without injecting meaningless theory or complicating one of the easiest tasks they'll ever ckoose to do in life. Whining about "no one knows when you're at your highest win point" and other irrelevant things is only done due to wanting to hide an acute misunderstanding.
People who cannot stop going to casinos after big wins are almost certain to lose it and more all back. And if you believe in the math then you will believe in that. The only way any player can consistently win and win over time, is to quit at non-greedy pre-set win goals, accept that you will have some losing sessions that are no higher than your pre-set loss goal, and understand that some of your wins will be huge. And the consistent winner NEVER goes up in denomination on their next casino visit after winning on the last trip.
It is all so very easy.
I happen to think Rob makes a lot of sense with his "quit while you're ahead" strategy which is why I follow it to a certain degree.
Clearly there is nothing wrong with leaving with a profit -- any profit -- and to take that profit home no matter how small it is so you can tell your friends and relatives "yes, I really left with a profit." Leaving even with a $1 profit makes you a giant because in reality how many visitors to Vegas or any casino actually leave with even a $1 profit?
I also think it makes sense to set a win goal, but how do you know your winning is finished even after attaining a win goal amount?
There were two visits to Vegas for me where I hit two royals during the same visit. Jason hit five royals during 24 hours on one of his visits. Do you quit after only one visit?
What about my recent run of luck on that $25 machine? Should I have quit after the quad queens for $3125 and then the quad 2s for $5,000 ?? If I had I would have missed the $100,000 royal. Should I have packed up and left with the $95,000 after paying off the $5,000 marker? If I had Jason wouldn't have hit his $26,000+ royal a few hours later.
This is why I like to use a system which locks up a percentage of the big win plus allows for some additional play and the use of rising stop losses, similar to what stock market investors use.
I think it's wrong to have strict win goals where you must bolt. I think it's more appropriate to lock up a percentage of big wins and to allow yourself to have more luck as you continue to play.
One more thing. I would rather have a big win at the start of a casino trip and play with profits, then to use money out of my checking account or markers to play. If I hit a royal on my very first push of the button and then continued to play and lose I would feel better than if I had first played and lost the equivalent of a royal and then hit a royal at the end of the trip just to break even.
Winning early and then losing it doesn't hurt as much as losing and losing during what is supposed to be a pleasure trip.
If I hit a $4,000 royal at the start of a trip and then after two days lost it all but did not dip into my own checking account, I could consider that a positive trip because my checking account didn't suffer.