Going to approach this season carefully, as my over/under strategy was all thrown off last year due to the rule changes, and that hurt me a lot.
With that said...
Lakers/Clippers - Under 224 -106
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Going to approach this season carefully, as my over/under strategy was all thrown off last year due to the rule changes, and that hurt me a lot.
With that said...
Lakers/Clippers - Under 224 -106
Denver at Portland - Under 217.5
Also already posted Boston at Philadelphia - Over 215 on my pokerfraudalert site, but it's losing. But I'll count it either way.
Split them yesterday , winning Denver under but losing the Boston over (which I didn't even post here).
Today, starting in 10 min:
Atlanta at Detroit - Under 222
Hit the Atlanta under despite a bad 1Q.
I'm 3-0 in unders and 0-1 in overs. No spread picks yet.
Let's change that.
NY at Brooklyn - OVER 229.5
Phoenix at Denver - OVER 220 (219.5 -112 at Betonline right now, as I write this)
Lost both yesterday.
Parlay (will be counted as individual bets for record keeping):
Detroit vs. Philadelphia +140
Detroit under 214
Also:
Atlanta vs. Orlando - Under 216.5
Portland at Dallas - Under 220.5
Charlotte at Lakers - Over 216.5
So far:
4-5 overall
4-1 unders
0-3 overs
0-1 moneyline
Split 'em yesterday, though Charlotte over made me sweat after a great first half. Took until one minute left in the 4th to go over (it ended up over by 4.5).
Just one pick today.
Utah at Phoenix - Under 213.5
Jazz opponents have not scored more than 95 points in any of the first 3 games, and the Jazz themselves are only averaging about 100.
Great pick on Utah two days ago, leading the whole way.
Last minnte (4:05 PT)
Minnesota at Philadelphia - Under 222
Back in black, with a 7-6 record, after hitting the Minnesota under.
6-2 unders
1-3 overs
0-1 moneyline
Two more totals picks today. You have time to bet both, as these are late games.
Denver at New Orleans - Under 223
San Antonio at Clippers - Over 228
Denver/NO is an interesting one. Denver has not played in a game yet where more than 215 points were scored. All of New Orleans games have gone over 239, though one was OT.
Went 0-2 yesterday. One was never winning, but the New Orleans game was really disappointed, as the under was likely to win until the 68 point 4th.
Here are some picks today, including a moneyline pick.
Orlando +160 vs. Milwaukee
Detroit at Chicago - Under 215
Cleveland at Indiana - Over 215
I've lost 5 in a row now, after all 3 of the games on Friday lost, including the disappointing Chicago under which was on pace to win most of the way.
Anyway, I hate to bet on a line like this, but here goes.
New Orleans at Brooklyn - Over 239
It's a new era in the NBA.
Won easily despite a bad early 2nd Q.
Today:
Boston at Cleveland - Over 215.5
San Antonio at Atlanta - Over 222.5
Oklahoma City -2.5 vs. Orlando
Three picks today, after going 2-1 yesterday on a day where none of the three had any last minute surprises. (Only loser was Atlanta over.)
Washington at Indiana - Over 226.5
Orlando +6.5 at Dallas
Philadelphia at Utah - Under 209.5
Notes:
Orlando is back-to-back on the road, so beware of that
Utah has gone under in every single game so far, and mostly by a wide margin
Both sharps and the public are hitting the Washington over, and the line has moved from 221 since 7am today.
Washington starting soon, the others you have some time.
Gonna throw this one on the pile too:
Memphis +150 vs. Minnesota
3-1 yesterday, losing Utah by 0.5 at the actual last second. So close!
Fired Charlotte/Boston under 215 at literally the last second.
You can try to live bet it though.
Also going with:
OKC at San Antonio - Under 212.5
That one starts at 5:30 PST
Split 'em, winning Charlotte, losing OKC.
The books haven't quite adjusted to how high scoring these games involving Brooklyn are, especially when it's against a team which isn't defensively focused.
Public and sharp money hitting this one hard today:
Brooklyn at Portland - Over 238.5
Last minute:
Orlando -7.5 vs. Memphis
Here's two more, and you have time to bet both (especially Lakers which doesn't start until 7:30 PT):
Miami vs. Lakers - Over 218.5
Golden State at Minnesota - Under 229 (some books have 229.5, btw)
Yesterday was super frustrating. Starts off great with an easy win on Orlando and then the Golden State under eventually looks like a lock to cover. Then OT screws me, and I'm 1-1. Then the Brooklyn game runs behind, catches up, has a bad 4th, and misses covering by 4.5. Then Lakers game just has low scoring the whole way.
So what looked like 2-0 with two to go ends up as 1-3.
Okay, so I have one pick from this light NBA schedule.
Dallas at Memphis - Over 222
This is a reverse Trapper John pick.
Public likes the under here, line has been moving up all day.
Won easily yesterday.
Now:
Orlando -4.5 vs. Indiana (Turner out, -5 ok)
Later:
Toronto at Lakers - Under 212 (Lowry out, 211.5 ok)
Lost both.
Today:
Now:
Orlando -2.5 vs. Philadelphia (Embiid out)
Later:
San Antonio +1.5 -105 at Minnesota
I'm throwing one more on the pile, which I've been considering all day.
Golden State at Lakers - Under 219
Miracle win with Golden State under, thanks to 34-point 4th.
Other two split, with Orlando winning and SA losing.
Two public sides today.
Posting early.
Don't get shut out.
Atlanta at Phoenix - Over 228.5 (229 ok)
Dallas -7.5 at New York
Dallas lost, Atlanta over won
Sacramento at Lakers - Under 215
Easily won the Sac/Lakers under.
Currently sitting 19-20, but one of the wins was +150,
Assuming -110 on the spread/totals picks, I'm 2.13 units down for the season.
Brooklyn at Chicago - Under 225 (No Kyrie)
New Orleans at Miami - Under 227.5
A 76-point 4th killed the Brooklyn under, which just needed under 73 in the 4th to win! Sad!
Still went 1-1.
Let's do a pubic bet on the NBA Sunday night game.
Atlanta at Lakers - Over 220.5
Atlanta games have been over 230 for last 5 contests, and they let Clippers hang a 150 on them yesterday.
Lakers pick hit, but a shocking almost-loss occurred.
With almost 4 minutes remaining, they had 217 points, needing just 4 points for my bet to win.
Then they went 2.5 mins with just 2 points, actually making it a sweat. Keep in mind that the Lakers were certain to hold the ball in a blowout with less than 24 seconds left.
2 free throws at 1:32 sealed it for me, but a member of my Pokerfraudalert site bet it at 221.5, so he was still behind by 0.5 with 41 seconds left (and the Lakers holding the ball if it's under 24 seconds).
It actually came down to the final shot of the game for his O221.5 to cover when it was 217 with 3:54 left.
That's almost impossible to have happened, but it did.
Fortunately for him, that final shot hit with 31 seconds left. Then the Lakers held the ball for 24, and the Hawks held the ball for the final 7.
Final total 223.
Speaking of totals, I'm now 21-21, and -1.31 units on the season.
Starting in about 10 min:
Cleveland at NY - Over 210
Also, I can't believe I'm typing this, but also:
NY -5.5 vs Cleveland
No Nance or Love
Plays you have a bit more time for:
Houston -7.5 vs. Portland
Charlotte +8.5 at Toronto
3-1 night. The one loss wasn't close, nor were any of the 3 wins. Charlotte was the only loss.
I'm finally above even in units (24-22 record, with a +150 moneyline win in there), and up +0.42 units overall.
Given my 7-11 start which put me down close to 5 units, this isn't bad.
Starting in about 10 min:
New Orleans -3 vs. Portland
Portland out: Lillard, Nurkic, Gasol
New Orleans out: Ball, Okafor
Won the New Orleans pick easily.
10-4 in my last 14 now.
25-22 record, +1.33 units
Here's one starting at 4:05 PT. Posting more shortly:
NY at Philadelphia - Under 210.5
Here's three more:
Golden State at Dallas - Under 216.5
Houston at Denver - Under 221.5
Detroit at Chicago - Over 222 (222.5 ok)
Went 1-3 on Wed, winning only Houston.
NY under really hot screwed, with 19 points coming in final 51 seconds.
Today:
Detroit -6 vs Atlanta
More later
Starting shortly
Miami at Chicago - Over 217
Golden State at Utah - Under 208.5
One more
Clippers vs Houston - Under 226
Had weird day, with Miami under looking like a loser and winning at the last minute, and Houston under looking like a winner but losing in a horrible 4th.
Went 2-2.
Today, let's just do one:
Miami at Philadelphia - Under 211
Starting soon.
Easily won yesterday.
Here's one pick for today, in case you'd like an NBA distraction on a Sunday.
Sacramento at Washington - Under 233.5
Last 2 days I posted a single NBA under pick, and both won easily.
Here's one for today:
Charlotte at Miami - Under 212.5
Lost the Charlotte pick on Monday
Anyway, here are three picks on this 14-game day.
Remember that there is no longer NBA on Thanksgiving (which is a tragedy) thanks to Kobe Bryant complaining about it years ago.
New Orleans +6 vs. Lakers (some books may be +6.5)
Boston -8.5 vs. Brooklyn (no Kyrie, no Jordan)
Utah at Indiana - Under 208
You have some time for the New Orleans, but the other two start at 4:05pm PT
BTW you can get New Orleans at +6.5 -105 on Bovada right now. They're the outlier because all the ploppies are hammering Lakers there.
Went 2-1, only losing the Indiana/Utah pick.
Lots of games today but nothing is jumping out at me except:
Washington at Lakers - Over 235.5
You have 6 hours.
Thanks to a 44 point 4th, the over on the Lakers lost, mainly because the game was a blowout and that killed the 4th Q scoring.
Here's a reverse Trapper John pick:
Sacramento +4 vs. Denver
You can even get 4.5 if you bet on Bovada
Also some totals:
Indiana at Philadelphia - Over 208
Charlotte at Milwaukee - Under 225.5
Sac starts soon, the other two don't go for a few hours.
2-1 yesterday, only losing Charlotte under.
These both start in less than 2 hours:
Miami at Brooklyn - Under 215.5
New York +7.5 vs. Boston (+7 ok)
I also might throw in a totals pick on the Orlando/GS game later on.
Split 'em, with the under winning and New York blowing a late lead to not just lose, but fail to cover, plus miss a final shot.
Last minute:
Phoenix at Charlotte - Under 223
Won Charlotte under.
Here's another
Starts 7:05 PT
Chicago +5 vs. Sacramento (4.5 ok)
Had been a middling 10-10 in my past 20, but won both yesterday to make it 12-10 in past 22.
Current record:
37-32 record, +2.25 units
Okay, so I don't like picking too early, but today I might be busy later, plus I have a feeling this line will just get worse throughout the day.
Lakers at Denver - Under 208
Monitoring:
Toronto spread pick
Portland over pick
Going to fire on Toronto, actually.
Toronto -5 vs. Miami
Dragic out, Lowry probably not coming back today
Okay... decided to fire on Portland after all.
Portland at Clippers - Over 231 (231.5 ok)
1-2 yesterday, only picking up the Lakers under win.
This starts at around 4:05pm PT
A moneyline pick because it will win outright.
Orlando +115 vs. Phoenix
However, if you can't get +108 or higher, just take the points of +1.5
Bovada has +115 right now
Starting at 4:35:
Boston vs. Miami - Under 210
Looks like I'm gonna go 2-0.
So let's throw three more on the pile for the late games:
Lakers at Utah - Over 212 (just started, sorry)
Portand vs Sacramento - Under 216.4
Portland -5 vs. Sacramento
4-1 day yesterday, with only the Portland under losing. One was +115 so that was also nice.
Current record: 42-35 record, +4.04 units
This is my first time this season being 4 betting units ahead.
FYI, for calculation purposes, spread picks are assumed as -110 and moneyline picks are as stated.
Guys, only about 15 min to tipoff, but this one I feel pretty good about.
Detroit +105 vs. Indiana
You can also go +1.5 spread, but I am just going moneyline because it will win outright.
Won Detroit, but had about 6 other picks I wanted to make but decided against, and they all won. Ugh.
Today:
Cleveland +11 at Philadelphia (+10.5 ok)
Philly is missing Embiid and Richardson today.
Lost yesterday
Noon PST NBA
Denver at Brooklyn - Over 213 (213.5 ok)
Okay, I've been mulling this one over.
Decided to fire.
You can parlay this if you want.
Atlanta +110 at Charlotte
Atlanta/Charlotte Under 222.5
Starting in 15 min
1-2 yesterday, only winning Atlanta moneyline
Starting 4:35 PT
Cleveland at Boston - Over 216
More shortly
Phoenix vs. Minnesota -4
Bet it fast, it's going to 4.5 shortly, and already has on some books
Starts at 6:05 PT
Sacrament at Houston under 225.5
Starts 5:05pm PT
One more. This one starts at 6:05pm PT
OKC at Utah - Under 207
Gallinari out, Roberson out, Conley out
2-2 yesterday. Won Phoenix & Utah.
Today:
Starting 5:05pm PT
Philadelphia -5 vs Denver
Okay, one more.
Keep in mind the Knicks are terrible and haven't put up more than 104 points since November 18.
Still, I think this one is going over, as strange as it seems on the surface.
Portland vs. New York - Over 223
Should've won the Philadelphia game. Up by more than 5 most of the way, then leading by 5 with about 5 seconds left, for some reason they chose not to foul the76ers, and I tied it.
Then lost the New York over badly. That was a bad pick. Shouldn't have made it.
Here are three for today:
Brooklyn -10 vs. Charlotte
New Orleans +9.5 at Milwaukee (Giannis out - a few books have +10)
Golden State -5.5 vs. New York
Still deciding upon a possible Sacramento under bet, but that game isn't until 7pm PT.
Annoying. Brooklyn up by double digits for almost the entire first half and part of the 3rd, then they just collapsed.
Here's one more.
Sacramento vs. OKC - Under 207.5
Bad night, went 1-3, only winning the Sac under.
Tonight:
Starting at 6pm:
Dallas at Detroit - Under 217
Drummond may or may not play -- he's having an allergic reaction to an avocado!
May post another for the late game.
For some reason, an NBA game is starting at 8:35pm local time.
I'll make a pick on it.
Denver -7.5 vs. Portland
Okay, two picks related to the Minnesota/Clippers game.
Minnesota +175 vs. Clippers
Minnesota vs. Clippers - Under 228
If the +175 scares you, a +4.5 bet is also ok.
I might do a partial parlay and partial straight bet on this.
Lost all 3. Ugh.
My picks in NBA have been shit over the last several days, following a hot streak I had going.
I was going to fire the Houston under, but I was waiting to see the status Drummond. Westbrook is out, and Drummond looked questionable. Turns out he's not playing. I don't like unders when a good center is missing, because that often screws up the defense.
Guess I'll just take a day off.
You know what? Screw it.
I also like the Denver/OKC under.
OKC at Denver - Under 205
I should've taken the day off. I lost Denver/OKC under on Saturday.
So I took 2 days off.
I'm back with this
Brooklyn at New Orleans - Under 228
Won that one easily, even with OT.
Two today:
Chicago +0 at Washington (-1 ok)
Charlotte at Cleveland - Under 212
Another one:
Reverse Trapper John pick.
Detroit +120 vs. Toronto
Went 2-1, with Chicago coming back from down 15 in the 4th and barely covering in OT. Detroit was the only loser, but they got clobbered.
Tonight just one:
Houston at Clippers - Over 235.5
This is a weird game where the public is hitting the under, but the line first rose, and now has stayed stagnant.